UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates · May 2, 2026 · Lightweight (155 lbs) · 3R
Mar Fan vs Steele
Hometown Debutant vs CJJ Champ
Mar Fan 5-fight Road to UFC streak. Steele CJJ World Champ 2019 + 15-month layoff. Debutant TDD 20% vulnerability.
Dom "Street Buddha" Mar Fan
9-2-0 · Unranked
Kody Steele
7-1-0 · Unranked
In 30 seconds
Dom Mar Fan wins by Decision or Late TKO
- +4"Mar Fan reachKills the pocket Steele operates in.
- 15 monthsSteele layoffPost-Rongzhu UD + injury history.
- CJJ ChampSteele pedigreeCombat Jiu-Jitsu World Champion 2019.
The key to the fight
THE DECIDING POINT
Grappling Pedigree vs Reach + Hometown
Mar Fan is a UFC debutant with a 5-fight streak via Road to UFC contract. BJJ brown + athletic striker.
Steele has absurd grappling pedigree (CJJ World Champion 2019, EBI brown belt champ, ADCC trials silver, beat DJ Jackson) but said after his UFC debut that "my jiu-jitsu didn't help me in a primarily striking fight." Quick fact: Mar Fan's 2 pro losses are BOTH to Quillan Salkilld (same card!) by RNC.
Mar Fan's 20% TDD is a real red flag against a true grappler — but Steele has publicly stated he's in striking mode. If it stays standing, Mar Fan's 4 inches of reach + 2 inches of height + 5-year youth = wins. If it goes wrestling, Steele black belt + CJJ champ vs brown belt = serious problem.
Mar Fan 26 years old, on the rise, hometown Perth, 4 inches of reach, 5-fight win streak (3 UDs Road to UFC + regional finishes).
Steele CJJ World Champion + EBI brown belt + beat DJ Jackson at Third Coast. HS state wrestling champ. If he goes grappling, Mar Fan's 20% TDD is a massive gap.
Tale of the Tape
| Mar Fan | Tale of the Tape | Steele |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | AgeMar Fan 5 years younger. | 31 |
| 5'11" | HeightMar Fan 2 inches taller. | 5'9" |
| 75" | ReachMar Fan 4 inches more reach. Clean edge. | 71" |
| Orthodox | Stance | N/A |
| BJJ brown + striker | BackgroundImportant stylistic clash. | CJJ World Champ 2019 + HS wrestling |
Current form
Opponent caliber in recent fights
| Fighter | Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Opponent caliber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dom Mar Fan | Feb 2024 | Quillan Salkilld | L | Sub R2 (RNC 3:03) | 4 |
| Dom Mar Fan | Jun 2024 | Tim Rogers | W | KO | 1 |
| Dom Mar Fan | Nov 2024 | Tom Pratt | W | Sub RNC | 1 |
| Dom Mar Fan | Jan 2026 | SangWook Kim | W | Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3) | 2 |
| Kody Steele | Apr 2024 | Alejandro Martinez | W | TKO R3 (2:09) | 1 |
| Kody Steele | Oct 2024 | Chasen Blair | W | TKO R2 (4:07, left hook to liver) | 1 |
| Kody Steele | Feb 2025 | Rongzhu | L | Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3) | 2 |
Dom Mar Fan · Hot
5-fight win streak, 0-0 UFC (debutant). UFC 325 (Road to UFC S4 Final) UD over Kim in Jan 2026 — fell behind in R1 (Kim found the back) but flipped it and finished the striking in R3. Before that: UD over Park (RtUFC semifinal), RNC sub over Pratt at Eternal 91, KO over Rogers Eternal 86, **L Salkilld R2 RNC sub** Eternal 82.
Kody Steele · Stable (with caveats)
0-1 UFC. UFC 312 debut Feb 2025 = UD loss vs Rongzhu (Fight of the Night, $50K bonus). 15 MONTHS OFF entering this. Injury history (knee Glory MMA 2022, out one year). 31 years old. CJJ World Champion 2019 + EBI brown belt + ADCC trials silver.
Level of competition
Mar Fan
Average opponent level (1 to 5)1
Record5W-0L recent regional
Against the top 50W-0L
Steele
Average opponent level (1 to 5)2
Record2W-2L recent (UFC + DWCS)
Against the top 50W-0L
No common opponents. Both with regional/DWCS calibre recently. Tiny sample.
Stats
Sig. Strikes per MinuteSteele's SLpM is cherry-picked from the slugfest with Rongzhu. Not sustainable.
Strike Defense (%)Mar Fan's 34% strike def is a red flag. Steele not captured.
Takedowns per 15 MinSteele 1 TD vs Rongzhu in 90s.
Takedown Defense (%)Mar Fan TDD 20% is a MASSIVE flag.
How they win and lose
Mar Fan
- KO/TKO 22% (2)
- Submission 22% (2)
- Decision 56% (5)
Steele
- KO/TKO 57% (4)
- Submission 14% (1)
- Decision 29% (2)
Mar Fan 56% decisions. Steele more of a finisher but offensive sub avg only 14% (sub specialist in the grappling room, not in MMA). Strong decision lean.
Skills
Where each fighter has the edge
1. Volume StrikingEdge: Steele (1/5)
Steele cherry-picked but showed volume vs Rongzhu.
2. Reach + GeometryEdge: Mar Fan (3/5)
4 inches of reach kills the pocket Steele needs.
3. Offensive WrestlingEdge: Steele (3/5)
HS state champion + DWCS TD.
4. Sub GameEdge: Steele (4/5)
CJJ World Champ + EBI + ADCC trials.
5. Cardio / ActivityEdge: Mar Fan (2/5)
Mar Fan 3 fights in 12 months. Steele 15 months off.
6. HometownEdge: Mar Fan (3/5)
Perth.
Standing, Mar Fan wins (reach + age). On the floor, Steele dominates. Whoever dictates location wins — and Steele said he wants to strike.
Full prediction
The thesis
The thesis: Dom Mar Fan wins because he's 5 years younger, owns 4 inches of reach, fights at home in Perth, has 5-fight momentum, and Steele arrives off 15 months at 31 stating jiu-jitsu didn't help him in UFC striking. Path: works distance with the jab, defends early TDs, banks volume across three rounds. Collapses if Steele picks grappling mode and lands repeated TDs.
Conviction 6 because the advantages are real but Mar Fan's 20% TDD is a structural vulnerability against a CJJ World Champ. Steele said he's in striking mode but can flip. Not 7 because of the grappling pedigree gap.
What breaks the thesis
- Steele picks grappling mode after the 15-month layoff
- Repeated TDs + sub in a scramble
- Mar Fan athletic striker but TDD collapses
- Tight cards favor Steele on volume
The underdog's path
Steele enters with decisive grappling mode (opposite of his Rongzhu strategy), lands repeated TDs, top control, sub in a scramble (CJJ pedigree).
- Repeated TDs against Mar Fan's 20% TDD
- Pick grappling over striking
- Find a finish on the floor before R3