May 2, 2026 · RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Mar Fan
9-2-0
UnrankedBrisbane, Queensland Australia | 26 years old
Steele
7-1-0
UnrankedPort Angeles, Washington (Vegas) | 31 years old
Hometown Debutant vs CJJ Champ
Mar Fan 5-fight Road to UFC streak. Steele CJJ World Champ 2019 + 15-month layoff. Debutant TDD 20% vulnerability.
THE DECIDING POINT
Grappling Pedigree vs Reach + Hometown
Mar Fan is a UFC debutant with a 5-fight streak via Road to UFC contract. BJJ brown + athletic striker. Steele has absurd grappling pedigree (CJJ World Champion 2019, EBI brown belt champ, ADCC trials silver, beat DJ Jackson) but said after his UFC debut that "my jiu-jitsu didn't help me in a primarily striking fight." Quick fact: Mar Fan's 2 pro losses are BOTH to Quillan Salkilld (same card!) by RNC. Mar Fan's 20% TDD is a real red flag against a true grappler — but Steele has publicly stated he's in striking mode. If it stays standing, Mar Fan's 4 inches of reach + 2 inches of height + 5-year youth = wins. If it goes wrestling, Steele black belt + CJJ champ vs brown belt = serious problem.
Truth A
Mar Fan 26 years old, on the rise, hometown Perth, 4 inches of reach, 5-fight win streak (3 UDs Road to UFC + regional finishes).
Truth B
Steele CJJ World Champion + EBI brown belt + beat DJ Jackson at Third Coast. HS state wrestling champ. If he goes grappling, Mar Fan's 20% TDD is a massive gap.
Tale of the Tape
Mar Fan 5 years younger.
Mar Fan 2 inches taller.
Mar Fan 4 inches more reach. Clean edge.
Important stylistic clash.
Current Form
Dom Mar Fan
Road to UFC S4 final. Reversed an R1 deficit.
Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)RtUFC semifinal.
Unanimous DecisionEternal 91.
Sub RNCEternal 86.
KOEternal 82 title. RNC.
Sub R2 (RNC 3:03)5-fight win streak, 0-0 UFC (debutant). UFC 325 (Road to UFC S4 Final) UD over Kim in Jan 2026 — fell behind in R1 (Kim found the back) but flipped it and finished the striking in R3. Before that: UD over Park (RtUFC semifinal), RNC sub over Pratt at Eternal 91, KO over Rogers Eternal 86, **L Salkilld R2 RNC sub** Eternal 82.
Kody Steele
UFC debut. Fight of the Night.
Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)DWCS contract.
TKO R2 (4:07, left hook to liver)Fury FC 89.
TKO R3 (2:09)Pre-UFC 6-0 amateur run.
Submission + 3 stops0-1 UFC. UFC 312 debut Feb 2025 = UD loss vs Rongzhu (Fight of the Night, $50K bonus). 15 MONTHS OFF entering this. Injury history (knee Glory MMA 2022, out one year). 31 years old. CJJ World Champion 2019 + EBI brown belt + ADCC trials silver.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. Both with regional/DWCS calibre recently. Tiny sample.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Steele's SLpM is cherry-picked from the slugfest with Rongzhu. Not sustainable.
Strike Defense (%)
Mar Fan's 34% strike def is a red flag. Steele not captured.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Steele 1 TD vs Rongzhu in 90s.
Takedown Defense (%)
Mar Fan TDD 20% is a MASSIVE flag.
Mar Fan leads in 2 categories · Steele leads in 1
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Mar Fan 56% decisions. Steele more of a finisher but offensive sub avg only 14% (sub specialist in the grappling room, not in MMA). Strong decision lean.
Skills Profile
Mar Fan
vs
Steele
Volume Striking
+1 Steele
Steele cherry-picked but showed volume vs Rongzhu.
Reach + Geometry
+3 Mar Fan
4 inches of reach kills the pocket Steele needs.
Offensive Wrestling
+3 Steele
HS state champion + DWCS TD.
Sub Game
+4 Steele
CJJ World Champ + EBI + ADCC trials.
Cardio / Activity
+2 Mar Fan
Mar Fan 3 fights in 12 months. Steele 15 months off.
Hometown
+3 Mar Fan
Perth.
Standing, Mar Fan wins (reach + age). On the floor, Steele dominates. Whoever dictates location wins — and Steele said he wants to strike.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis: Dom Mar Fan wins because he's 5 years younger, owns 4 inches of reach, fights at home in Perth, has 5-fight momentum, and Steele arrives off 15 months at 31 stating jiu-jitsu didn't help him in UFC striking. Path: works distance with the jab, defends early TDs, banks volume across three rounds. Collapses if Steele picks grappling mode and lands repeated TDs.
The thesis: Dom Mar Fan wins because he's 5 years younger, owns 4 inches of reach, fights at home in Perth, has 5-fight momentum, and Steele arrives off 15 months at 31 stating jiu-jitsu didn't help him in UFC striking. Path: works distance with the jab, defends early TDs, banks volume across three rounds. Collapses if Steele picks grappling mode and lands repeated TDs.
Conviction
Conviction 6 because the advantages are real but Mar Fan's 20% TDD is a structural vulnerability against a CJJ World Champ. Steele said he's in striking mode but can flip. Not 7 because of the grappling pedigree gap.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Steele picks grappling mode after the 15-month layoff
- 02
Repeated TDs + sub in a scramble
- 03
Mar Fan athletic striker but TDD collapses
- 04
Tight cards favor Steele on volume
Underdog Path
Steele enters with decisive grappling mode (opposite of his Rongzhu strategy), lands repeated TDs, top control, sub in a scramble (CJJ pedigree).
Required Conditions
- Repeated TDs against Mar Fan's 20% TDD
- Pick grappling over striking
- Find a finish on the floor before R3
Verdict
Winner
Dom Mar Fan
Method
Decision or Late TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Method
Mar Fan by Decision
UFC decision lean + superior volume + hometown advantage. Around 50%.
- 02
Rounds
Over 2.5 Rounds
Mar Fan 56% decisions. Steele Fight of the Night vs Rongzhu (full 3R). Around 70%.
- 03
Longshot
Steele by Sub
CJJ World Champ is not hype. Mar Fan TDD 20%. Around 15-20%,.
- 04
Winner
Mar Fan
Moderate edge across the board.
Most Likely Outcome
Over 2.5 Rounds
Clear decision lean. Steele FOTN vs Rongzhu showed 3R cardio. Mar Fan 3 recent decisions. Most defensible play.
Stats That Matter
+4"
Mar Fan reach
Kills the pocket Steele operates in.
15 months
Steele layoff
Post-Rongzhu UD + injury history.
CJJ Champ
Steele pedigree
Combat Jiu-Jitsu World Champion 2019.
20%
Mar Fan TDD
Real vulnerability against a grappler.
The Trap
Trap: Steele by Submission
Market pays it and the public hammers it on the absurd CJJ pedigree (World Champion 2019, EBI, ADCC). The trap: Steele said publicly after his UFC debut that "jiu-jitsu didn't help me in a primarily striking fight" — meaning the mindset isn't in grappling mode. To submit, he'd need to flip his fighting strategy. Longshot is fine as a hedge if you believe in the mind-shift, but as a main play it's a trap.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Dom "Street Buddha" Mar Fan vs Kody Steele | UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates | May 2, 2026 | RAC Arena, Perth, Australia