Makhachev vs Machado Garry

The key to the fight

THE PARADOX

Stuffing Takedowns Isn't Winning Rounds

In November 2025, Belal Muhammad shot seven takedowns on Ian Machado Garry and landed exactly none. Zero for seven, against a former champion who built an entire career on wrestling and grinding. Garry walked out with a 72-56 edge in significant strikes, two 30-27 cards, and the right to call out Makhachev on the mic.

His takedown defense is not a talking point: 80% for his career, 6-foot-3 of frame, and a judo black belt behind it. The problem is that his only loss didn't come from takedowns. It came from control.

At UFC 310, Shavkat Rakhmonov went 2-for-10 on takedown attempts, a 20% clip, and still walked away with 11:41 of control time to Garry's 2:32. The Irishman won the striking (42-37 significant, 102-65 total) and lost 48-47 on all three cards. Judges don't score a stuffed shot.

They score who was on top, who was pinned to the fence, who decided where the fight happened. Makhachev is the best on earth in exactly that currency. Against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 he went 4-for-4 on takedowns and banked 19:10 of control across 25 minutes, taking 50-45 on every card.

He doesn't need to submit Garry. He doesn't even need five clean takedowns. He needs the fence.

Tale of the Tape

Current form

Level of competition

No common opponents: these two roads never crossed. Makhachev climbed by clearing out lightweight, with Charles Oliveira, Alexander Volkanovski twice, Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker along the way, then took the belt off Della Maddalena at 170.

Garry built everything at welterweight, beating Geoff Neal, Michael Page, Carlos Prates and former champion Belal Muhammad, with his only loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov. Average opposition favors the champion, and the hardest number for the challenger to explain is the top-five split: 5-0 against 1-1.

Stats

How they win and lose

The win profiles tell the story. Makhachev finishes on the mat: 13 of his 28 wins by submission (46%), including the D'Arce on Poirier in round 5 and on Moicano in round 1, with only 5 by knockout.

Garry is the mirror image in proportion: 7 knockouts in 17 wins (41%), a single submission in his entire career, and more than half his wins on the cards (9 of 17).

It matters for the method here: the champion has to get this to the floor to reach his best weapon, and the challenger shows up standing with real pop but a track record of winning by accumulation, not impact.

The sample here is tiny on both sides and that needs saying up front: one loss each. Makhachev lost exactly once, by knockout, to Adriano Martins in October 2015, and hasn't lost in over a decade. Garry lost exactly once, by decision, to Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310, 48-47 on all three cards.

One result is not a vulnerability pattern, but the shape of Garry's loss is the single most useful piece of information in this whole breakdown: he wasn't submitted and he wasn't flattened, he was out-controlled by a man who landed just 2 of 10 takedowns. That's the same address Makhachev visits every Saturday.

And the other side of the ledger matters too: across 18 pro fights, nobody has submitted Garry.

Skills

• 1. Striking at RangeEdge: Machado Garry (3/5)

  Garry lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute to the champion's 2.45, with four extra inches of reach to work behind. The jab dictated everything against Belal.

• 2. Close-Range StrikingEdge: Makhachev (2/5)

  On the fence and in the clinch, the champion converts contact into a takedown or a minute of control. Garry absorbs 2.86 strikes per minute at 52% defense, the softest numbers on his record.

• 3. Knockout PowerEdge: Machado Garry (2/5)

  Seven knockouts in 17 wins for the Irishman (41%) against five in 28 for the champ (18%). Garry hits harder, even though he's better known for volume.

• 4. Striking DefenseEdge: Makhachev (2/5)

  Makhachev absorbs 1.45 strikes per minute to Garry's 2.86, with 61% defense against 52%. He's far harder to hit clean.

• 5. Grappling & ClinchEdge: Makhachev (5/5)

  3.10 takedowns per 15 minutes and 91% defense against 0.92 and 80%, plus 13 career submissions to one. This is the gulf that defines the fight.

• 6. Cardio (5 Rounds)Even

  Both have been through recent five-rounders without fading: Garry landed 126 significant strikes across 25 minutes on Prates, Makhachev controlled 19:10 of 25 against Della Maddalena.

Garry wins everything that happens from five feet away: volume, reach, pop and youth. Makhachev wins everything that happens from the moment hands touch. The question tonight isn't who strikes better, it's how many minutes per round the Irishman spends with his back on the fence.

Full prediction

The thesis

The thesis is: Islam Makhachev wins because the currency that decides a five-round fight against him is control time, and he stacked 19:10 of it on 4-for-4 takedowns against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322, already at 170 pounds; because the only loss of Garry's career came exactly that way, with Shavkat Rakhmonov landing just 2 of 10 takedowns and still banking 11:41 of control to take 48-47 on all three cards; and because the resumes aren't the same, with Makhachev 5-0 against top-five opposition (Oliveira, Volkanovski twice, Poirier, Della Maddalena) while Garry is 1-1.

The path is the champion closing distance early, walking Garry to the fence, and converting every entry into minutes of contact, banking rounds by accumulation until the cards.

It breaks down if Garry keeps this in the center of the cage with the jab and the body kicks, forcing the champion to enter from outside against a 74.5-inch reach, and repeats on him the seven stuffed takedowns he handed Belal Muhammad.

Conviction 7 because the thesis leans on four independent dimensions, not one. Stats: 19:10 of control and 4-for-4 takedowns against Della Maddalena, already at 170. Level of competition: 5-0 against top-five opposition versus 1-1 for the challenger.

Style: Garry's only loss came from a man who landed 2 of 10 takedowns and still controlled 11:41. Momentum: 16 straight wins and no losses in over a decade.

What keeps this off 8 is physical and concrete: five inches of height and four of reach for Garry, Khabib himself admitting they've never faced anyone this tall and will have to chase, and the champion's own coach flatly predicting all five rounds.

This isn't a market read: the moneyline is expensive, the value sits in the method.

What breaks the thesis

1. If Garry keeps this in the center of the cage through the first ten minutes, jabbing and kicking to the body so the champion can't close, the control-time math never adds up and the thesis dies.
2. If Makhachev leans on classic leg entries instead of hunting the fence and the body lock, Garry's 6-foot-3 frame and judo black belt turn those into sprawls, and he'll pay on the exit the way Belal paid across seven attempts.
3. If the nine-month layoff shows up in the champion's rhythm in round 1 and Garry banks the first two rounds on volume, this becomes a scorecard race and the challenger owns the shorter path.
4. If Makhachev takes Javier Mendez's invitation to settle it standing rather than chasing the fence, he's walking into his opponent's best real estate: 4.78 significant strikes per minute to his 2.45, with four inches of reach against him.

The underdog's path

Garry starts tall and in the center, using the jab plus body and leg kicks to hold the champion at 74.5 inches and force him to enter from range. Every takedown attempt becomes a sprawl and a reset in open space, never a stay on the fence. He banks volume in rounds 1 and 2, exactly like he did to Belal Muhammad, and from round 3 on the nine-month layoff and the size gap start charging Makhachev, who lands 2.45 significant strikes a minute and has never had to chase a man this size for 25 minutes. The Irishman closes it out on the cards, 48-47.

• Hold the champion under two minutes of control per round by getting off the fence fast, not just by stuffing the shot itself
• Own the center of the cage from round 1 and force Makhachev to enter from outside, against the four-inch reach edge
• Commit to leg and body kicks early to take away the champion's entry base, instead of leaning only on the jab
• Sustain the 4.78 strikes-per-minute output into round 5, without fading after nine months out