May 30, 2026 · Galaxy Arena, Macau
Lookboonmee
10-4-0
Unranked (Strawweight)Buriram, Thailand | 29 years old
Amorim
10-2-0
Unranked (Strawweight)Manaus, Brazil | 30 years old
Thai Muay Thai vs Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
Loma is coming off her first loss since 2019, dropped by Alexia Thainara at UFC Perth in September 2025 after eating five takedowns and 10 minutes of control time. Amorim got handled by Mizuki Inoue at UFC 321 (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) after starting strong. The market opened Loma 56% / Amorim 44%. Classic stylistic clash: a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt against a Muay Thai world champion.
THE PARADOX
The Submission Specialist Who Got Controlled From The Top
Jaqueline Amorim is a 2nd-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with eight of her ten career wins by submission. Four armbars on her resume. She trains at American Top Team in Coconut Creek and built her reputation in elite Brazilian grappling before MMA. By every indicator, Amorim should be a nightmare for any striker. Then she met Mizuki Inoue at UFC 321 in October 2025 and the script flipped. Amorim came out aggressive in round 1, scored two takedowns, took mount, threatened the rear-naked choke. Inoue stayed calm, reversed position, and in rounds 2 and 3 took over with a trip against the fence, top control, and clean ground strikes. Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28 for Inoue. The black belt got dominated FROM TOP by the Japanese strawweight who was returning from a four-year layoff. Loma Lookboonmee is not Inoue. She is better. Nine-time Muay Thai champion before MMA, three IFMA gold medals, S-1 World Champion, trains at Tiger Muay Thai. In the UFC, 73% takedown defense and 2.03 takedowns per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy when she initiates the wrestling herself. Not just a striker, but a Thai striker who learned to chain takedowns and who throws sharp elbows in the clinch. The question of this fight is not whether Amorim can drag it to the floor. It is: after Loma neutralizes the first two attempts, does Amorim have a plan B against an actual Muay Thai world champion?
Truth A
Amorim has eight submissions in ten wins, 75% submission rate, 2nd-degree black belt from CheckMat. Rear-naked choke over Polyana Viana at 1:49 of round 2 (April 2025), armbar over Vanessa Demopoulos at 3:28 of round 1 (September 2024), armbar over Cory McKenna at 1:38 of round 1 (March 2024). When she lands the takedown, she finishes. Loma has one submission win in her entire career.
Truth B
Loma owns 73% takedown defense. She did eat five takedowns from Alexia Thainara in September 2025, but that was a grinder wrestler with a forward-moving cage game, not a sub specialist hunting transitions. Her nine UFC wins came on volume striking and clinch work. She just got beat by wrestling pressure, not by Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Inoue just showed the world that Amorim's grappling has holes when the opponent defends and gets back up.
Tale of the Tape
Practically even. Amorim is 11 months older.
Amorim is 2 inches taller. Small physical advantage for the grappler.
Amorim with 6.5 inches of reach edge. Real gap on paper, but Loma neutralizes it with short-range Muay Thai and clinch elbow work.
Symmetrical stance matchup. No southpaw angle to exploit.
Elite camps, opposite philosophies. Tiger Muay Thai is the cradle of Thai striking; ATT is a complete wrestling and grappling powerhouse.
Current Form
Loma Lookboonmee
UFC Perth, opening bout of the card. Thainara landed five takedowns and racked up 10 minutes of control time. Loma could not keep the fight standing and got rag-dolled in sequence. First loss since 2019.
Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)Thai vs Brazilian clash. Loma controlled distance and dictated the pace with Muay Thai over 15 minutes.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Vegas 86. Brasil was offensively passive; Loma capitalized with sharp boxing and a low defensive volume. Three identical 29-28 scorecards.
Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)Loma controlled with striking. Clean scorecards.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 284. Striking control over 15 minutes, a blend of Muay Thai range work and clinch elbows.
Unanimous DecisionLoma is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Alexia Thainara in September 2025 at UFC Perth, dropping 30-27 across all three cards after eating five takedowns and 10 minutes of control time. It was her first loss since 2019 and snapped a four-fight win streak. The context matters: Thainara is an aggressive offensive wrestler, exactly the style Loma has historically struggled to neutralize. Before that, she stacked four straight unanimous decisions: Istela Nunes (April 2025), Bruna Brasil (February 2024, three 29-28 cards), Patrina Lawal (July 2023) and Elise Reed (February 2023). Her background is rare: nine-time Muay Thai champion before MMA, three IFMA gold medals, S-1 World Champion, Theprasit Stadium Champion, Assawindam Stadium Champion. She trains at Tiger Muay Thai in Phuket and was the first Thai fighter signed to the UFC. She is 7-3 in the UFC against medium-tier strawweight competition, and Jaqueline Amorim is the perfect stylistic opposite to her last opponent: a submission specialist instead of a positional grinder. Loma now needs to prove that her elite takedown defense holds up against jiu-jitsu, not just against fence-pressure wrestling.
Jaqueline Amorim
UFC 321, opening bout. Amorim came out aggressive in round 1, landed two takedowns, took mount, threatened the rear-naked choke. Inoue reversed, then dominated rounds 2 and 3 with a fence trip, top control and clean ground strikes. The black belt got controlled from top by the Japanese striker returning from a four-year layoff.
Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)UFC Kansas City. Amorim got the takedown, transitioned to the back and locked in a clean rear-naked choke. A win over a fellow Brazilian she had openly admired.
Sub R2 (rear-naked choke, 1:49)Scored the takedown inside the first minute, transitioned to mount, finished with the armbar. Dominant outing.
Sub R1 (armbar, 3:28)Ultra-quick finish. Amorim showed that one connecting takedown is all she needs to wrap up a fight.
Sub R1 (armbar, 1:38)Hughes neutralized Amorim with takedown defense and forced her own pace. The blueprint Inoue replicated two years later.
Unanimous DecisionAmorim dropped a unanimous decision to Mizuki Inoue at UFC 321 in October 2025, scorecards 30-27, 30-27, 29-28. It was a painful reverse because Amorim came in as the favorite and the fight started in her ideal script: aggression in round 1, two takedowns, mount, rear-naked choke threat. Inoue reversed position and took over rounds 2 and 3 with a fence trip, top control and clean ground strikes. The black belt ended up dominated from top by the Japanese fighter coming back from a four-plus-year layoff. Before that loss, Amorim ran three straight submission finishes: rear-naked choke at 1:49 of round 2 over Polyana Viana (April 2025), armbar at 3:28 of round 1 over Vanessa Demopoulos (September 2024) and armbar at 1:38 of round 1 over Cory McKenna (March 2024). Eight of her ten career wins are by submission (75% submission rate); she is tied for seventh in strawweight history in submissions and third in submission attempts. She is a 2nd-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with IBJJF World Championship, IBJJF No-Gi Worlds and Abu Dhabi World Pro titles on her resume, with her jiu-jitsu lineage tracing through CheckMat. She trains MMA at American Top Team in Coconut Creek. The essential read here is that Amorim is still the most dangerous submission threat in the unranked strawweight pool, but the Inoue loss exposed a thin plan B against technical strikers who can defend and reset to their feet. She is 4-2 in the UFC, both losses by decision, both to strawweights who neutralized the ground game.
Level of Competition
No confirmed direct common opponents. Both circulate in the unranked tier of the strawweight division, but Loma has three more years of UFC mileage and her cumulative resume sits a notch higher: Bruna Brasil, Sam Hughes, Denise Gomes, Jinh Yu Frey and Elise Reed are established UFC veterans. Amorim has beaten Vanessa Demopoulos, Cory McKenna and Polyana Viana, all in a similar tier but with shorter octagon resumes. The most relevant calibre data point is that Sam Hughes defeated Amorim by unanimous decision in September 2023 using the exact pattern Mizuki Inoue would replicate two years later: defend the early takedowns, impose her own pace. Loma is a sharper, more physically resilient striker than both Hughes and Inoue. Caveat: real calibre is similar between the two, but Loma carries more octagon mileage and has been tested far more often in full rounds.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Loma produces 44% more raw output. Pressure Muay Thai striker identity.
Strike Accuracy (%)
Essentially even. Loma slightly sharper on her landed shots.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Loma absorbs less. Defense built on Muay Thai reads and movement.
Strike Defense (%)
Amorim posts higher UFC strike defense, partly explained by a much smaller sample of attempts absorbed.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Nearly even in attempt volume. Loma uses takedowns the way a Thai striker would, Amorim uses them as a submission entry.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Loma is more accurate when she shoots. Clinch-to-trip Muay Thai entries.
Takedown Defense (%)
KEY STAT. Loma 73% TDD (top of the division) vs Amorim 50%. 23-point gap. Loma defends seven of every ten takedown attempts; Amorim defends half. This flips the classic striker-vs-grappler script on its head.
Lookboonmee leads in 6 categories · Amorim leads in 1
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Polar profiles. Loma is a compulsive decision fighter: 80% of wins by scorecards, built on volume and Muay Thai range control. Amorim is a pure finisher: 80% of wins by submission (8 of 10), 4 armbars, plus 20% by KO/TKO, and ZERO career decision wins. When Amorim wins, she ends it. When Loma wins, she carries cards. The method read is direct: Amorim by submission is her path or nothing. Loma by decision is her path or nothing.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Loss distribution is the strongest structural stat in this fight. Loma has NEVER been knocked out (zero KO losses in 14 pro fights), holds one career submission loss (early in her career, pre-UFC) and three losses by decision. Amorim has NEVER been finished, not by submission, not by KO. Both losses came by unanimous decision (Sam Hughes Sep 2023, Mizuki Inoue Oct 2025). Loma by submission is statistically possible (it has happened once), but Loma by knockout is essentially a unicorn. Amorim by finish is a flat zero, even against opponents with finishing power. Both fighters carry matchup-proof chins. The essential read: this fight is going to decision with very high probability. Both Amorim losses by cards, three of Loma's four losses by cards. Everything points to a 15-minute fight.
Skills Profile
Lookboonmee
vs
Amorim
Striking at Range
+4 Lookboonmee
Loma is a multi-time Muay Thai world champion landing 3.87 sig strikes per minute. Amorim is a grappler with functional striking, not a long-range armorist.
Striking in the Clinch
+4 Lookboonmee
Clinch elbows are a Thai specialty. Amorim uses clinch entries to chase takedowns, not to trade.
Knockout Power
+1 Amorim
Amorim has 2 KO/TKO wins in 10 fights (20%). Loma has 0 career knockouts. Small edge, but Amorim has the higher raw power profile.
Wrestling and Takedown Defense
+2 Lookboonmee
Loma 73% TDD vs Amorim 50%. Loma 51% takedown accuracy vs Amorim 40%. The Thai striker wins the statistical wrestling duel, but Amorim has the volume of attempts.
Jiu-Jitsu and Finishing
+5 Amorim
2nd-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, 8 submissions in 10 wins, 4 armbars, IBJJF World Champion. Loma has one career submission. Dominant gap once the fight hits the floor.
Cardio (3 Rounds)
+1 Lookboonmee
Loma has more full 15-minute fights in the UFC. Amorim went the distance against Inoue but bled volume in rounds 2 and 3 after failed early entries. Loma paces, Amorim works in spurts.
Loma owns 4 of 6 dimensions: range striking, clinch work, defensive wrestling and steady cardio. Amorim owns 1 with a dominant gap (jiu-jitsu) and 1 by a hair (raw power). The math question is simple: can Amorim drag this fight to her dimension before Loma imposes the 4 she controls?
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Loma Lookboonmee wins because she brings a multi-time Muay Thai world champion pedigree (nine professional titles before MMA, full camp at Tiger Muay Thai), elite 73% takedown defense that neutralizes fence-entry wrestling and a heavier octagon mileage of 7-3 in the UFC with wins over Bruna Brasil, Denise Gomes, Jinh Yu Frey and Sam Hughes.
The thesis is: Loma Lookboonmee wins because she brings a multi-time Muay Thai world champion pedigree (nine professional titles before MMA, full camp at Tiger Muay Thai), elite 73% takedown defense that neutralizes fence-entry wrestling and a heavier octagon mileage of 7-3 in the UFC with wins over Bruna Brasil, Denise Gomes, Jinh Yu Frey and Sam Hughes.
The path is Loma defending the first two or three takedown attempts with a worked sprawl, opening range with pressure Muay Thai and clinch elbows, dictating volume across 15 minutes and closing scorecards 29-28 or 30-27.
This collapses if Amorim lands two dominant takedowns inside the first five minutes, holds top control for three-plus minutes per round and transitions to back or mount, the exact way she finished Polyana Viana with a rear-naked choke at 1:49 of round 2 in April 2025.
Conviction
Conviction 5 (capped by GATE 3b) because (1) Amorim has a real and specific submission path against a striker whose TDD has never been tested against elite jiu-jitsu, (2) Loma just lost her first fight since 2019 (L to Alexia Thainara at UFC Perth Sep 2025), exposing vulnerability to wrestling pressure, and (3) BJJ specialist vs striker is a classic upset pattern, with a Sam Hughes blueprint over Amorim herself validated in 2023. However Amorim was just controlled from top by Mizuki Inoue at UFC 321 in October 2025 (30-27, 30-27, 29-28), showing that her sub-only game has holes against a striker who defends and gets up, (b) Loma is 7-3 in the UFC against medium-tier strawweights while Amorim is 4-2 against a similar but less-tested pool, and (c) Loma's striking pedigree (multi-time Muay Thai world champ, Tiger Muay Thai) is a tier above the basic standup Amorim has shown. GATE 3b TRIGGERED: required_conditions 3+ yes, historical_precedent yes (Sam Hughes 2023 blueprint replicated by Inoue 2025), archetype match yes (BJJ plus wrestling, perfect), favorite vulnerability yes (Loma's TDD has never faced an elite black belt). 4/4 criteria, pick stays but conviction is capped at 5.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Amorim lands two dominant takedowns inside the first five minutes of round 1 and holds top control for three-plus minutes per round
- 02
Loma absorbs accumulated damage on Amorim's takedown entries and cannot scramble back to range
- 03
Amorim transitions to back or mount and locks in a rear-naked choke or armbar (four armbars on her resume)
- 04
Loma's cardio cracks after defending four-plus takedown attempts and she bleeds volume in rounds 2 and 3
Underdog Path
Amorim has two parallel paths. Path A (submission via wrestling-up): force a clinch entry on the fence inside the first 90 seconds of round 1, land the takedown (1.85 attempts per 15 minutes, 40% accuracy, but high attempt volume) and stabilize top control. Transition to back or mount, lock in a rear-naked choke the way she did to Polyana Viana in April 2025 (RNC at 1:49 of round 2) or an armbar the way she finished McKenna and Demopoulos in rounds 1 of March and September 2024. Path B (decision via accumulated top control): if the finish never arrives in rounds 1 and 2, eat control time across 15 minutes, stack scorecards with strikes from top position, close 29-28 with the takedown round plus another competitive frame.
Required Conditions
- Land at least two takedowns inside the first two rounds before her gas tank dips
- Stabilize top control for three-plus minutes per round when she lands a takedown
- Avoid trading openly in the pocket against a Muay Thai world champion (the exact way Inoue beat her)
- Survive the first 90 seconds of round 1 against Loma's Muay Thai without eating a low kick that limits her mobility
— Precedent: Sam Hughes defeated Amorim by unanimous decision in September 2023 using the exact pattern of defending early takedowns and imposing her own pace. Mizuki Inoue replicated that blueprint at UFC 321 in October 2025 (30-27, 30-27, 29-28). Both precedents prove Amorim has a ceiling against strikers who can defend the takedown and reset to their feet. Path A here is the inverse blueprint: she has to finish before Loma flips the script the way Hughes and Inoue did.
Verdict
Winner
Loma Lookboonmee
Method
Unanimous Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Total Rounds
Over 2.5 rounds
Loma has NEVER been knocked out across 14 pro fights. Amorim has NEVER been submitted or knocked out across 12 pro fights. Both fighters carry a loss distribution dominated by decisions. The probability of this fight passing round 2 is extremely high. Card safety play.
- 02
Method
Loma by Decision
Loma is a compulsive decision profile: 80% of wins by cards (8 of 10). Amorim has never been finished; both her losses are unanimous decisions. The most likely scenario for the main pick. Implied 33%, estimated 38-42%. Moderate edge.
- 03
Winner
Loma Lookboonmee
Real probability estimated at 53%, implied is 62%. No giant edge on the straight moneyline, but the thesis is structurally sound (four dimensions in Loma's favor). Better value via method (decision) than via the straight ML.
- 04
Round Group
Fight ends in R2 or R3 (either fighter)
Hedge scenario if the fight drifts off the decision script. If Amorim lands a takedown in round 1 without closing, she hunts the submission in round 2. If Loma busts an opponent open with a clinch elbow, she pushes for a TKO in round 2 or 3. Inside-the-distance finishes in this style of fight tend to land in the middle or late rounds, not round 1.
Most Likely Outcome
Over 2.5 rounds
Strongest combined value play of the fight. Loma has NEVER been submitted or knocked out in the UFC. Amorim has NEVER been submitted or knocked out across her entire career. Both fighters have structural loss profiles tied to decisions. Real probability of the fight clearing round 2 sits at 75-80%. Implied 62%, estimated 78%. Solid edge of 15+ points. Wager with a comfortable safety buffer.
Stats That Matter
73% vs 50%
Takedown defense Loma vs Amorim
23-point gap. Loma defends seven of ten attempts; Amorim defends half. The key stat that flips the striker-vs-grappler script.
ZERO
Times Amorim has been finished in MMA
Amorim has NEVER been submitted or knocked out across 12 pro fights. Both career losses by unanimous decision.
80% / 80%
Method tendency: cards / finish
Loma wins 80% by decision; Amorim wins 80% by submission. Polar profiles. Whoever imposes their method wins.
44%
Real upset probability
Medium conviction because Amorim's path is specific, with precedent (Sam Hughes 2023, Mizuki Inoue 2025) and a perfect archetype match.
The Trap
Trap: Amorim by Specific Submission
The market will pay heavy on Amorim by submission based on her 80% sub rate and four-armbar resume. But Loma has NEVER been finished in the UFC and only has one career submission loss (early career, pre). Amorim's black belt is legit, but Loma's 73% TDD acts as the gate. Betting Amorim by specific submission at high odds means betting two hard stats break at the same time: Loma defending seven of every ten takedowns historically AND Loma never having been finished in the UFC. Amorim's path is real (44%), but it is more likely to arrive via unanimous decision through accumulated top control than via a clean submission finish. Taking Amorim by sub or longer is betting against two structural walls at once.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Loma Lookboonmee vs Jaqueline "Jacque" Amorim | UFC Fight Night: Song vs Figueiredo | May 30, 2026 | Galaxy Arena, Macau