August 1, 2026 · Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
Leka
13-2-0
UFC DebutNovi Sad, Serbia | 24 years old
Poppeck
21-5-0 (1 NC)
UFC DebutMunich, Germany | 34 years old
Size Against Resume
On the same day, April 10, 2026, Leka weighed 265 pounds and Poppeck weighed 206, each on the eve of his own show. Now the German moves up a full division on 10 days' notice.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
A Resume Doesn't Weigh 265 Pounds
On April 10, 2026, two men stepped on a scale in two different countries, each the day before his own show. In Novi Sad, Jovan Leka hit 265 pounds for the ARMMADA heavyweight title, which he won by stopping Danilo Suzart in the second round. In Szczecin, Poland, Alexander Poppeck hit 206 pounds to face Tomasz Narkun in the OKTAGON 86 co-main, and won 29-28 on all three cards. Same weigh-in day, same fight night, 59 pounds apart. That gap is the whole fight in one number. Poppeck is the better fighter, and that isn't an opinion: 27 pro fights to 15, 13 knockout wins, 11 wins that ended in round 1, and a win over a former KSW champion who defended that belt five times and beat Mamed Khalidov twice. Leka has never beaten anyone with that kind of name on the resume. His best night was a decision on the Contender Series that didn't earn him a contract. But none of that happened at 265. Poppeck's last six fights came at 205 pounds or lighter, one of them at a 196-pound catchweight against David Hosek. The last time he carried real weight was October 2022, when he hit 218 against Nermin Hajdarpasic. And Leka's game is exactly the thing mass settles: get inside, get on top, and hit until somebody stops it.
On April 10, 2026, two men stepped on a scale in two different countries, each the day before his own show. In Novi Sad, Jovan Leka hit 265 pounds for the ARMMADA heavyweight title, which he won by stopping Danilo Suzart in the second round. In Szczecin, Poland, Alexander Poppeck hit 206 pounds to face Tomasz Narkun in the OKTAGON 86 co-main, and won 29-28 on all three cards. Same weigh-in day, same fight night, 59 pounds apart. That gap is the whole fight in one number. Poppeck is the better fighter, and that isn't an opinion: 27 pro fights to 15, 13 knockout wins, 11 wins that ended in round 1, and a win over a former KSW champion who defended that belt five times and beat Mamed Khalidov twice. Leka has never beaten anyone with that kind of name on the resume. His best night was a decision on the Contender Series that didn't earn him a contract. But none of that happened at 265. Poppeck's last six fights came at 205 pounds or lighter, one of them at a 196-pound catchweight against David Hosek. The last time he carried real weight was October 2022, when he hit 218 against Nermin Hajdarpasic. And Leka's game is exactly the thing mass settles: get inside, get on top, and hit until somebody stops it.
Truth A
Poppeck is the real fighter here. Twenty-seven pro bouts, 13 knockouts, unbeaten in six outings since 2023, and three months ago he beat Tomasz Narkun, the former KSW light heavyweight champion with five title defenses and two wins over Khalidov. Leka's record is regional, and Dana White already looked at him once and passed.
Truth B
But the German took this on 10 days' notice, moving up a full division, against a man who outweighs him by nearly 60 pounds. Leka has never been stopped in 15 fights, holds a BJJ brown belt, has four submission wins and three arm-triangles. Against Nuftillaev he took the back and the mount. That game doesn't ask about your opponent's resume. It asks what he weighs.
Tale of the Tape
A 10-year gap. Poppeck was born April 6, 1992. Leka's date of birth isn't published anywhere, only his age.
Sources disagree: ESPN lists Leka at 6'4" and Poppeck at 6'2", while Tapology has the Serbian at 6'5" and OKTAGON has the German at 190 cm.
ESPN has Leka at 75 inches, Tapology at 79. Nobody publishes Poppeck's. There's no argument to build here.
Both weighed in on the same day, April 10, 2026, and fought the following night. The German's last six fights all came at light heavyweight or below, one at a 196-pound catchweight.
Poppeck has nearly double the mileage and started fighting when Leka was 11.
Current Form
Jovan Leka
ARMMADA heavyweight title at home in Novi Sad. Weighed in at 265 pounds and stopped the Brazilian with punches at 1:20 of round 2.
TKO R2Brave CF 104 main event in Belgrade. Locked in the arm-triangle at 2:36 of round 1, the third of his career.
Sub R1Contender Series. Lost round 1 to takedowns, flipped it in round 2 by taking the back and the mount, and closed in round 3 with uppercuts and elbows. Won 29-28, 29-27, 29-27 and still walked out with no contract.
Unanimous DecisionARMMADA 13. Finished it with punches at 4:30 of the second.
TKO R2ARMMADA 12. One minute and 48 seconds and the Portuguese fighter was on the floor.
TKO R1Six straight wins, four by stoppage, and the ARMMADA heavyweight title captured at home in April. At 24 he's already corrected his only recent stumble: he lost the vacant ARMMADA belt to Anton Vinnikov over five rounds in May 2024 and hasn't lost since. The honest caveat is the calibre. Strip out the Contender Series and his road is regional Balkan fare. And it was on the Contender Series, the one real step up, that he needed the scorecards and walked away without a contract.
Alexander Poppeck
OKTAGON 86 co-main in Szczecin. Beat the former KSW champion 29-28 on all three cards while weighing 206 pounds. Far and away the best win of his career.
Unanimous DecisionOKTAGON 83. Rear-naked choke at 3:30 of round 1, the only submission win in 27 pro fights.
Sub R1OKTAGON 80 in Munich, at a 196-pound catchweight. He weighed 195.5 and stopped the Czech with elbows at 2:25 of round 2.
TKO R2OKTAGON 71 main event in Munich. Revenge: he flattened the interim champion with a right hook at 1:15 of round 1.
KO R1OKTAGON 64. Waved off at 2:28 of round 1 after an illegal knee and ruled a no contest.
No Contest (illegal knee)Five wins and a no contest across his last six outings, with four stoppages mixed in. Since dropping the OKTAGON interim light heavyweight title fight to Pavol Langer on a split decision in June 2023, he hasn't lost: he flattened Langer in the rematch in 75 seconds, elbowed David Hosek out in the second, and outpointed Tomasz Narkun in April. He hasn't been stopped since Jamahal Hill caught him on the Contender Series in July 2019, and that's 15 fights ago. The problem isn't form, it's logistics: 10 days' notice, a full division up, and an opponent who outweighs him by nearly 60 pounds.
Level of Competition
No common opponents, and neither man has a UFC fight yet, so the record shown here covers each fighter's last six outings rather than a promotional record. That window is also where the German's one clear edge lives. Poppeck beat Tomasz Narkun, the former KSW light heavyweight champion with five title defenses and two wins over Mamed Khalidov, and before that he'd already stopped UFC veteran Jeremy Kimball and avenged his loss to OKTAGON interim champion Pavol Langer. The best name on Leka's ledger is Azamat Nuftillaev, who arrived at the Contender Series 13-1-1 and is a legitimate prospect, but the rest of his road is ARMMADA and the Balkan circuit. If this fight were settled on paper, the German wins it going away. It isn't.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
One-fight sample apiece: Leka's 2025 Contender Series bout and Poppeck's 2019 one. Fragile numbers, treat them with caution.
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Poppeck's 9.81 comes from the night Jamahal Hill knocked him out. It's his only UFC-tracked fight and it doesn't describe the 2026 version of him.
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
UFC.com lists Poppeck at 0% takedown accuracy and 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. His game lives on the feet.
Peso na Última Pesagem (lbs)
The number that decides this fight. Both weigh-ins happened on the same day, April 10, 2026, ahead of two different shows that ran the same night. Fifty-nine pounds apart.
Taxa de Finalização nas Vitórias (%)
Leka finished 11 of 13 wins, Poppeck 14 of 21. Both men end fights. The difference is who was standing across from them.
Vitórias por KO/TKO (carreira)
Eleven of the German's wins ended in round 1. His hands are the underdog's real argument.
Leka leads in 6 categories · Poppeck leads in 2
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men end fights, by opposite roads. Leka is the more varied finisher: seven knockouts and four submissions, three of which are the same technique, the arm-triangle, which he hit on Cvetkovic, Panaitescu and Charlie Milner. He's a BJJ brown belt and his game starts from top position. Poppeck is hands, full stop. Thirteen of his 21 wins came by knockout, 11 of his wins ended in round 1, and his average fight time sits at 7:30. The only submission win in 27 pro fights was a rear-naked choke in January 2026. One bookkeeping note: of the seven wins that aren't knockouts or submissions, six are actual decisions and the seventh is a disqualification from his 2013 debut.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is the data that reframes the method question. Leka has never been stopped: zero knockout losses and zero submission losses across 15 pro fights. Both defeats came on the cards, both unanimous, both against more experienced men, Stevan Jaric in 2022 and Anton Vinnikov over five rounds for the vacant ARMMADA belt in 2024. The way to beat Leka is to survive him and collect late, not to put him away. Poppeck's sample is bigger and more informative: one knockout loss, to Jamahal Hill on the 2019 Contender Series, and no stoppages since across 15 fights. Both submission losses were rear-naked chokes, from Rob Wilkinson in 2016 and Dusko Todorovic in 2017, meaning 40% of his defeats came by submission. But those are nearly a decade old, and Leka isn't a back-taker, he's an arm-triangle guy working from the top. The vulnerability exists on paper and it's too old to carry a thesis by itself.
Skills Profile
Leka
vs
Poppeck
Striking em Distância
+2 Poppeck
Poppeck is the cleaner, far more experienced striker, with 13 knockouts and a right hook that solved Langer in 75 seconds.
Striking em Curta Distância
+3 Leka
In the clinch and against the fence, 59 pounds settle it. Leka gets inside and the German is carrying weight that isn't his.
Poder de Nocaute
+1 Poppeck
The knockout resume belongs to the German, 13 in 21 wins. The mass belongs to the Serbian, hitting from the top at 265. One largely offsets the other.
Defesa de Striking
+1 Leka
Leka has never been stopped in 15 fights. Poppeck hasn't been stopped since July 2019, but it has happened once. Both have a chin, only one has a spotless sheet.
Grappling e Clinch
+4 Leka
BJJ brown belt, four submissions, three arm-triangles and the back-and-mount sequence against Nuftillaev, against a German with one submission in 27 fights and two rear-naked choke losses.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+1 Leka
Leka is 10 years younger and grew into rounds 2 and 3 against Nuftillaev. Poppeck made no weight cut at all and has already gone 25 minutes with Langer, which closes part of the gap.
The German wins if this stays standing, at range, decided by hands and technique. The Serbian wins the moment it closes. And what tips the math is that in a fight with a 59-pound gap, the man who chooses where it happens is almost always the bigger one.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Jovan Leka wins because on the same April 10, 2026 he weighed 265 pounds and Poppeck weighed 206, a 59-pound gap that decides exactly the territory the Serbian plays in, because his game is to close, get on top and hit, the same script that produced seven knockouts, four submissions and the two rounds where he took Nuftillaev's back and mount on the Contender Series, and because the German accepted on 10 days' notice moving up a full division after fighting his last six bouts at 205 pounds or lighter, one of them at a 196-pound catchweight.
The thesis is: Jovan Leka wins because on the same April 10, 2026 he weighed 265 pounds and Poppeck weighed 206, a 59-pound gap that decides exactly the territory the Serbian plays in, because his game is to close, get on top and hit, the same script that produced seven knockouts, four submissions and the two rounds where he took Nuftillaev's back and mount on the Contender Series, and because the German accepted on 10 days' notice moving up a full division after fighting his last six bouts at 205 pounds or lighter, one of them at a 196-pound catchweight.
The path is Leka closing early, accepting two or three clean shots in round 1 to reach the clinch, and from round 2 on leaning his weight into top position until the referee steps in. It breaks down if Poppeck lands the right hand on the counter inside the first five minutes, the same way he flattened Pavol Langer in 75 seconds, or if he survives the first two rounds underneath and collects in round 3 on 27 fights' worth of experience.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, and the reason is honest: the thesis rests on three distinct, solid dimensions, but a fourth cuts against it. For: the physical read, with both April 10 weigh-ins documented at 265 and 206; the stylistic read, with the Contender Series footage showing Leka flip a fight from top position, taking the back and mount in round 2 and closing in round 3; and the context, with 10 days' notice, an opponent switch, and a full division jump for the German. Against: the calibre edge belongs clearly to Poppeck, who beat Tomasz Narkun, a former KSW champion with five title defenses and two wins over Khalidov, three months ago, while Leka's best win is a decision that didn't earn a contract. Add that the German hasn't been stopped since July 2019 across 15 fights, and that moving up without a cut means he arrives fresh rather than drained. What keeps this at 6 instead of dropping it to 5 is that the Serbian's path doesn't depend on landing anything specific. It depends on closing distance, and in a fight with a 59-pound gap, he's the one who decides where it takes place.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Poppeck weighs in near 230 and looks solid rather than puffy, the physical gap stops being the main argument and this becomes a technical fight, which is his fight.
- 02
If Leka can't land a takedown or reach the clinch in the first five minutes and the fight stays at range, the German starts dictating terms and those 13 knockout wins become the likeliest outcome.
- 03
If Leka rushes a standing knockout instead of closing and leaning on his size, he plays into Poppeck's fight and opens the window the German has used 11 times in round 1.
- 04
If Poppeck rides out the first two rounds underneath without burning up and the fight reaches round 3 close on the cards, his 27 fights of experience outweigh Leka's 15. That's exactly how Vinnikov beat him.
Underdog Path
Poppeck walks in without having cut an ounce, light and fresh, and spends the opening five minutes doing what he did to Langer in the rematch: circling, refusing to let the Serbian pin him on the fence, and waiting on the counter right hand as his opponent steps in. A 24-year-old who has never been stopped in 15 fights has also never shared a cage with a man carrying 13 knockouts, and Poppeck has solved 11 fights in round 1. If it doesn't land, the plan B is surviving round 1 underneath without spending ammunition, getting up quickly every time, absorbing the weight the way he absorbed five rounds with Langer, and collecting in round 3 when the Serbian tires of carrying his own mass. That's how Vinnikov took the ARMMADA belt in 2024.
Required Conditions
- Don't get pinned on the fence in the first two minutes: if the clinch happens early, 59 pounds decide the round
- Land the counter right hand as the Serbian steps in, the exact shot that flattened Langer at 1:15 of OKTAGON 71
- Get up fast every single time he hits the mat, because control time underneath 265 pounds is what hands over the scorecards
- Reach round 3 with a full tank, leaning on the fact that he made no weight cut whatsoever for this fight
— Precedent: Anton Vinnikov vs Leka, ARMMADA 8, May 2024: the more experienced veteran absorbed the Serbian's size for five rounds and took the vacant heavyweight title by unanimous decision. It's the documented blueprint for beating Leka, and it's recent. The honest caveat is that Vinnikov was a genuine heavyweight of the same size, and Poppeck isn't.
Verdict
Winner
Jovan Leka
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Jovan Leka
Leka because the 59-pound gap decides where this fight happens and his whole game lives in top position. But the market already sees all of it: my read is 62% and the line implies nearly 70%. Right side, wrong price, so keep the stake small. Breaks if the German lands the counter right in round 1.
- 02
Método
Leka by KO/TKO
This is where the thesis actually lives, if a line surfaces. Leka's route isn't the scorecards, it's getting on top and hitting until the referee steps in, which is how he closed seven of his 13 wins. The market underrates it because Poppeck hasn't been stopped since 2019, but none of those 15 fights happened under 265 pounds. Breaks if the German gets up fast and drags this back to range.
- 03
Total de Rounds
Over 1.5 rounds
No book had posted a round total for this fight as of July 27, so this is a read, not a price. It's coherent with the thesis, because the Serbian's path is accumulation rather than one shot, and because Poppeck hasn't been stopped since 2019. It only becomes a bet if a line surfaces, and even then a small one, because both men carry quick knockouts. Breaks if either man lands clean early.
Most Likely Outcome
Leka by KO/TKO, moderate stake
It's where the analysis and the price separate. The moneyline doesn't pay for the risk, but the method does: Leka's structural path ends with the referee stepping in, not with the judges. Conviction 6 means don't size it up, because the German brings 27 fights of mileage, 13 knockouts, and he isn't walking in drained.
Stats That Matter
59 lbs
between the two men's most recent weigh-ins, both on April 10, 2026
Leka hit 265 for the ARMMADA title, Poppeck hit 206 against Narkun
10 days
of notice for Poppeck to move up a full division and debut in the UFC
He replaced Max Gimenis, who broke his foot in the final sparring session of camp
ZERO
times Jovan Leka has been stopped in 15 pro fights
Both of his losses came on the cards, both unanimous, both to more experienced men
The Trap
Poppeck by first-round knockout
This is the bet that will pull in everyone reading the resume: 13 knockout wins, 11 wins that ended in round 1, a right hook that erased a champion in 75 seconds, against a kid with a regional record who won on the Contender Series and still didn't get signed. The problem is the weight that power was built. The heaviest night of Poppeck's career was October 2022 against Hajdarpasic, when he weighed 218 pounds himself and ended it in round 1. That was the only one. His last six fights all came at light heavyweight or below, one at a 196-pound catchweight, and even that 218-pound peak sits 47 pounds under what Leka weighed at his last weigh-in. Across from him is a man who has never been stopped in 15 pro fights, with both losses on the cards. Betting the quick knockout is betting that his power moves up a division with him, on a one-night sample.
This is the bet that will pull in everyone reading the resume: 13 knockout wins, 11 wins that ended in round 1, a right hook that erased a champion in 75 seconds, against a kid with a regional record who won on the Contender Series and still didn't get signed. The problem is the weight that power was built. The heaviest night of Poppeck's career was October 2022 against Hajdarpasic, when he weighed 218 pounds himself and ended it in round 1. That was the only one. His last six fights all came at light heavyweight or below, one at a 196-pound catchweight, and even that 218-pound peak sits 47 pounds under what Leka weighed at his last weigh-in. Across from him is a man who has never been stopped in 15 pro fights, with both losses on the cards. Betting the quick knockout is betting that his power moves up a division with him, on a one-night sample.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Jovan Leka vs Alexander "Ironside" Poppeck | UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez | August 1, 2026 | Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
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