June 20, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Kape
22-7-0
#2 FlyweightLuanda, Angola | 32 years old
Horiguchi
36-5-0
#5 FlyweightTakasaki, Japan | 35 years old
Nine Years in the Making
The 2017 Kape was a raw kid at bantamweight. The 2026 version is the bigger man, the harder hitter, and the one who's never been knocked out.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Speed Doesn't Build New Size
On December 31, 2017, Kyoji Horiguchi submitted Manel Kape with an arm-triangle in round three, in the semifinals of RIZIN's bantamweight Grand Prix. But that Kape was 24, a raw prospect, and the fight was at 135 pounds. The Kape who shows up now is a different animal: the No. 2 flyweight, 14 KOs in 22 wins, three straight knockouts on his current run, and zero career losses by strikes. He grew, filled out, and turned into one of the division's heaviest hitters. Horiguchi has the speed, the fight IQ, and the best championship mileage in the cage. At 35, he came back to the UFC by submitting wrestler Tagir Ulanbekov and outpointing No. 6 Amir Albazi. There's no rust here. The problem is structural: he lands 3.77 significant strikes per minute to Kape's 5.04, he's the smaller man in a punching exchange, and he hasn't shared a cage with anyone who carries this size and this pop in years. Speed wins rounds. It doesn't change the fact that Kape hits harder and built his game for five rounds.
Truth A
Horiguchi has already done this. He submitted this exact opponent, he's eight fights unbeaten, and his speed ran right over Albazi and Ulanbekov in his last two. Champion-level experience and rhythm count.
Truth B
That submission was nine years ago, at bantamweight, against a Kape who doesn't exist anymore. Kape's 81% takedown defense strips Horiguchi of his safest path, and across his 22 wins, the heavy hands always show up. They showed up on Royval in one round.
Tale of the Tape
Kape is 3 years younger
Horiguchi has a 1-inch reach edge, but Kape is the bigger man in frame
Current Form
Manel Kape
Main event. Starched the No. 3-ranked contender with a right hook and follow-up flurry at 3:18 of round 1, then called for a title shot.
KO R1Weathered the Kazakh's pressure-and-takedown game, made adjustments, and knocked him out in the third. Proof of five-round cardio.
KO R3Stand-up war against a tough veteran. Kape broke Bulldog down and finished him in the third.
KO R3UFC 304. Outpointed by the undefeated wrestler, who controlled on the mat. The blueprint to beat Kape: volume and control, never trade.
Unanimous DecisionBeat a tough prospect on the cards in a closer fight than expected.
Unanimous DecisionThree straight knockouts and seven wins in his last eight UFC bouts. Kape chose this fight over waiting for a title shot, saying he's in good rhythm and wants to stay active. He's sharp, red-hot, and just took out the No. 3 contender in a single round. His only recent loss came to Mokaev, exactly the kind of wrestler who drags him out of a striking match. Horiguchi isn't that kind of fighter.
Kyoji Horiguchi
UFC Vegas 113. Far too quick for Albazi, wobbled him in round 2, and landed four times as many strikes. Erased any rust questions.
Unanimous DecisionUFC return after nearly a decade away. Head kick, took the back, and locked in the rear-naked choke on a ranked wrestler. Elite grappling, still intact.
Sub R3Last RIZIN bout before returning to the UFC. Controlled the decision without trouble.
Unanimous DecisionRIZIN 47. Rematch with the former Bellator champ who'd knocked him out with a spinning backfist in 2021. This time Horiguchi dominated the cards.
Unanimous DecisionRIZIN title defense, keeping the unbeaten streak that's now past eight fights rolling.
Unanimous DecisionEight fights unbeaten and 2-0 in his UFC return, with a submission over a wrestler and a clear decision over the No. 6 contender. He hasn't lost since April 2022. At 35, he's still fast and carries the fight IQ of a three-promotion champion. The caveat isn't form or skill, it's the calendar: a lot of road behind him, and he hasn't faced anyone with Kape's size and power in years.
Level of Competition
Both men reached the top of the flyweight division by different roads. Kape built his ranking in the UFC beating Royval, Almabayev and Bruno Silva, stumbling only against wrestler Mokaev. Horiguchi came back to the UFC already at a high level: he submitted ranked wrestler Ulanbekov and beat No. 6 Albazi, on top of a career full of RIZIN and Bellator titles. Even calibre, no resume gap either way.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Kape produces more volume and more impact per minute
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Horiguchi is much harder to hit
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Horiguchi is the more active wrestler, but runs into Kape's defense
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
The number that decides the fight: Kape's 81% strips Horiguchi of his safest path
Submissões por 15 Min
Kape leads in 4 categories · Horiguchi leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Kape is the more explosive finisher: 64% of his wins by knockout and 10 first-round finishes in his career. Horiguchi is more well-rounded, his wins split almost evenly between knockout and decision (15 and 15), plus six submissions, a sign he knows how to win every way. It matters for the method here: Kape needs a moment of impact, Horiguchi can grind it out on the cards.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles tell the story. Kape has never been knocked out: zero KO/TKO losses across seven defeats, a chin that has held up his entire career. The blueprint to beat Kape is on the scorecards, five of his seven losses came by decision (exactly what Mokaev did at UFC 304), or on the mat, where he absorbed both of his career submission losses, the most famous one to Horiguchi himself back in 2017 at bantamweight, nearly nine years ago. Horiguchi shows two KO losses in five defeats, but both are old (Kai Asakura in 2019, since avenged, and Sergio Pettis in 2021) and his chin has held since. The practical read: the submission everyone remembers from the first meeting is the least likely path to an upset now, given Kape’s 81% takedown defense. If Horiguchi wins, a decision on volume is the likeliest route.
Skills Profile
Kape
vs
Horiguchi
Striking em Distância
+2 Horiguchi
Horiguchi is faster and lighter on his feet, switching stances and scoring from the outside, like he did against Albazi.
Striking em Curta Distância
+3 Kape
In the pocket, Kape's heavy hands win the day. That's how he flattened Royval in one round.
Poder de Nocaute
+3 Kape
14 KOs in 22 wins and a 0.94 knockdown average for Kape, against 0.64 for Horiguchi. A real gap in pop.
Defesa de Striking
+2 Horiguchi
Horiguchi absorbs just 2.13 strikes per minute with 64% defense. He's slippery and hard to corner.
Grappling e Clinch
+2 Horiguchi
Horiguchi is the more complete, more active grappler, having submitted Kape in 2017 and Ulanbekov in 2025. But Kape's 81% takedown defense changes that math.
Cardio (5 rounds)
+1 Kape
Both can go five hard rounds, but Kape is younger and carries less career mileage.
Horiguchi wins the early minutes on speed and volume. Kape wins when the fight turns into a pocket exchange or when the veteran's road starts to show. The question isn't who's more skilled, it's whether Horiguchi's speed holds up over five rounds against a bigger man who's never been knocked out.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Manel Kape wins because he's the bigger, stronger, more explosive man, landing 5.04 significant strikes per minute to Horiguchi's 3.77, with a 0.94 knockdown average and zero career losses by knockout, because his 81% takedown defense neutralizes Horiguchi's safest route and forces the veteran to stand and trade with the heavier hands, and because the fight-week signal shows Kape focused and in rhythm while expert consensus tabs his style as the most dangerous out there for a 35-year-old Horiguchi who hasn't faced this size and power in years.
The thesis is: Manel Kape wins because he's the bigger, stronger, more explosive man, landing 5.04 significant strikes per minute to Horiguchi's 3.77, with a 0.94 knockdown average and zero career losses by knockout, because his 81% takedown defense neutralizes Horiguchi's safest route and forces the veteran to stand and trade with the heavier hands, and because the fight-week signal shows Kape focused and in rhythm while expert consensus tabs his style as the most dangerous out there for a 35-year-old Horiguchi who hasn't faced this size and power in years.
The path is Kape surviving the Japanese fighter's speed in the first two rounds, keeping the fight standing with his takedown defense, and from the midway point letting the heavy hands show up the way they did against Royval. It breaks down if Horiguchi uses his superior speed and stance-switching to outpoint from the outside over five rounds and take it to the cards, or if he lands the takedowns and ground control that submitted Kape in 2017 and Ulanbekov in 2025.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because even though the thesis leans on five distinct dimensions (size, stats, style, momentum and qualitative read), the underdog path is concrete and documented: Mokaev already showed in 2024 that you can outpoint Kape with volume and control, and Horiguchi has the speed and fight IQ to try the same over five rounds. What holds the conviction at 6 instead of dropping it to 5 is that Kape's 81% takedown defense removes Horiguchi's lowest-risk path, and Kape has never been knocked out, which makes the survive-and-win-late route structurally sound. This isn't a market read: the edge comes from the size, the power and the takedown defense, not from the line.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Horiguchi dictates the pace on speed and stance-switching as early as round 1, scoring from the outside without standing still in the pocket, he builds a lead on the cards and the late-impact thesis never happens.
- 02
If Horiguchi lands takedowns and control time, the way he submitted Kape in 2017 and Ulanbekov in 2025, then the 81% takedown defense has failed and the fight moves to the ground where the veteran is superior.
- 03
If Horiguchi's career mileage does NOT show up in the championship rounds and he holds the Albazi pace across all five, the bet on the veteran fading falls apart.
- 04
If Kape rushes the early knockout and burns his gas tank hunting a finish that doesn't come, he opens windows for Horiguchi's fast counter and repeats the mistake of overforcing it.
Underdog Path
Horiguchi comes in light and fast, uses stance-switching and volume to score from the outside without accepting the firefight in the pocket, steals the first two rounds on speed, mixes in takedown attempts to keep Kape honest, and manages all five rounds to build a clear lead on the cards. It's the Mokaev blueprint from UFC 304, run by a faster, more experienced fighter.
Required Conditions
- Score from the outside with speed and volume without standing still in Kape's pocket
- Refuse the firefight and stay out of the Angolan's impact windows
- Mix in takedown and clinch attempts to keep Kape reactive, even without finishing many
- Sustain the pace from start to finish over five rounds, without letting the career mileage show late
— Precedent: Mokaev vs Kape (UFC 304, July 2024): the undefeated wrestler outpointed Kape with volume and control for a unanimous decision, showing the Angolan gives ground when the opponent won't trade. Horiguchi has also already submitted this same Kape back in 2017, though at bantamweight and nine years ago.
Verdict
Winner
Manel Kape
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Manel Kape
Kape because he's the bigger, stronger man with 81% takedown defense that neutralizes Horiguchi's safest route. The market already sees it, so there's no fat edge here, it's a moderate-stake play. Breaks if Horiguchi outpoints him from the outside over five rounds.
- 02
Método
Kape by KO/TKO
Kape by KO because the heavy hands show up in nearly every fight, 14 KOs in 22 wins, and Royval was the most recent proof. The market pays well because Horiguchi rarely gets finished. Breaks if the Karate Kid uses his speed to keep from standing still in the pocket.
- 03
Como termina (qualquer lutador)
Fight goes to decision
Decision as a hedge because Horiguchi went the distance in three of his last five and has the IQ to manage five rounds, and Kape has never been knocked out. Honest value in a fight that could turn tactical. Breaks if Kape lands clean the way he did on Royval.
- 04
Vencedor azarão
Horiguchi by decision
Horiguchi by decision because it's the cleanest way the underdog wins: speed and volume from the outside, never accepting the trade, the same blueprint Mokaev used against Kape. The market underrates the veteran's technical path. Breaks if he tries to trade even or gets taken down into Kape's ground game.
Most Likely Outcome
Manel Kape, moderate stake
It's the soundest read in the analysis, but conviction 6 means don't size it up. The size, power and takedown-defense gap is real, but Horiguchi's speed and experience keep this well short of a safe bet.
Stats That Matter
81%
Kape's takedown defense, against the 1.61 takedowns per 15 minutes that are Horiguchi's safest route
It strips the veteran of his lowest-risk path and forces a stand-up fight
ZERO
of Kape's 7 career losses came by knockout
He loses by decision or submission, never by getting flattened
9 years
since Horiguchi submitted Kape, at bantamweight in RIZIN back in 2017
A 24-year-old Kape who no longer exists, in a different weight class
The Trap
Horiguchi by submission
The public will anchor on the 2017 arm-triangle and bet Horiguchi by submission, assuming history repeats. But that was nine years ago, at bantamweight, against a raw Kape. Today the Angolan has 81% takedown defense and has never been submitted in the UFC. If Horiguchi wins, it's far more likely to come by decision on speed, not by a finish that Kape's current style makes the least likely path.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Manel "StarBoy" Kape vs Kyoji "Karate Kid" Horiguchi | UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi | June 20, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA