May 2, 2026 · RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Johnston
5-1-0
UnrankedLogan, Queensland Australia | 35 years old
Schultz
8-3-0
UnrankedSun Prairie, Wisconsin | 29 years old
Honest Coin Flip
Two-year layoff vs 6-week post-KO turnaround. Both with massive red flags pointing in opposite directions.
THE DECIDING POINT
Layoff vs Quick Turnaround
Johnston is a two-time Muay Thai world champion (WBC LH 2018), 5-1 in MMA with a 100% finish rate (4 subs + 1 KO), but he retired in March 2024 — TWO YEARS OFF. Late UFC opportunity (Vendy out). 35 years old + ring rust + a baby on the way. Schultz is a BJJ-wrestler with a growing submission game (Suloev Stretch on DWCS), but 0-1 in the UFC with a TKO loss at 2:30 of round 1 to Pinas two months ago. Quick turnaround off a hard KO. Layoff vs rebound = both massive red flags. Style-wise: stand-up favors Johnston (world-class Muay Thai) if the rust allows. On the floor, Schultz is the more active grappler (CJJ-style sub game).
Truth A
Johnston has world-class technical Muay Thai striking + R1-R2 KO power. Fighting at home in Perth. TFC camp + a documented training history under Eugene Bareman.
Truth B
Schultz is six years younger, has 5 subs in 8 wins including rare techniques (Suloev Stretch). HS state wrestling champion. Plus 2.4 inches of reach.
Tale of the Tape
Schultz six years younger.
Johnston 2 inches taller.
Schultz 1.4 inches of reach.
Clean stylistic clash.
Red flags in opposite directions.
Current Form
Ben Johnston
Eternal MMA 83 title. Last fight before the hiatus.
Submission R2 (RNC 1:15)Eternal MMA 79.
SubmissionEternal MMA 77.
SubmissionEternal MMA 67.
SubmissionOnly career MMA loss. Atypical spinning back fist.
KO R1 (1:10 spinning back fist)5-1 career, every win by submission. Pre-UFC: submission of Fraser (RNC, 1:15) at Eternal MMA 83 in March 2024 = title. **Two years off MMA** (focused on coaching, got married, wife pregnant). Two-time Muay Thai world champion (WBC LH 2018 over Edwards). UFC debutant.
Wes Schultz
UFC debut. Pinas is an explosive striker (9.62 SLpM).
TKO R1 (2:30, punches)DWCS contract. Advanced technique.
Submission R1 (Suloev Stretch 1:51)DWCS 2024.
TKO R3 (3:55, GnP elbows)LFA 181.
TKO R1 (3:39 GnP)LFA 174.
SubmissionComing off a TKO loss at 2:30 of round 1 to Pinas at UFC FN Mexico in Feb 2026 — UFC debut. Before that: Submission R1 (Suloev Stretch 1:51) over Mingaj at DWCS S9 W10 = contract. Six-week quick turnaround off the hard KO.
Level of Competition
Schultz has more tested UFC-level competition (1 UFC + 2 DWCS). Johnston only Eternal MMA Australia regional. Johnston's stats are built in regional context — flag the caveat.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Johnston UFCStats empty (debutant). Schultz sample is one fight, 2:30 — huge variance.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Schultz sample inflated.
Submissions per 15 Min
Schultz offensive sub avg. Johnston regional only.
Johnston leads in 0 categories · Schultz leads in 3
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Combined: 13 wins, 1 decision. A decision is statistically unlikely. R1-R2 finish is the modal scenario.
Skills Profile
Johnston
vs
Schultz
Striking Quality
+4 Johnston
Two-time Muay Thai world champion vs BJJ-wrestler.
Offensive Wrestling
+3 Schultz
HS state champion + DWCS takedowns landed.
Offensive Grappling
+2 Schultz
Schultz BJJ + technical Suloev Stretch.
Rust / Layoff
+2 Schultz
Schultz active. Johnston two years off.
Post-KO Recovery
+2 Johnston
Schultz took a TKO two months ago.
Age
+2 Schultz
29 vs 35.
On the feet, Johnston runs the show (world-class Muay Thai). On the mat, Schultz runs it (BJJ + wrestling). Whoever dictates location wins.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis: Ben Johnston wins because he has world-class technical Muay Thai, 2 inches of height, tested KO power, and the home crowd in Perth. Believe it'll be tight, but the path I see is Johnston winning if he keeps R1 standing. Collapses if two years of rust kills the technique, OR Schultz wins repeated clinch entries plus takedowns.
The thesis: Ben Johnston wins because he has world-class technical Muay Thai, 2 inches of height, tested KO power, and the home crowd in Perth. Believe it'll be tight, but the path I see is Johnston winning if he keeps R1 standing. Collapses if two years of rust kills the technique, OR Schultz wins repeated clinch entries plus takedowns.
Conviction
Honest 4 conviction. Real coin flip. The two-year layoff is a critical variable that can't be measured until the fight starts. Not enough convergent dimensions for 5.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Johnston shows rust in combat sequences
- 02
Schultz lands repeated takedowns + finishes in a scramble
- 03
Age 35 + baby on the way = scattered focus
- 04
Schultz's post-KO recovery is better than expected
Underdog Path
Schultz uses the 1.4 inches of reach and six-year youth advantage to push pressure striking. When Johnston engages, he hits the clinch, drives the takedown. Sub R1-R2 in a scramble (Suloev Stretch or RNC).
Required Conditions
- Land repeated clinches
- Survive the Muay Thai in R1
- Find the finish on the floor before R3
Verdict
Winner
Ben Johnston
Method
KO/TKO or Submission
Most Likely
- 01
Rounds
Under 1.5 Rounds
Combined 12 of 13 wins by finish. 0% combined UFC decision rate. Real probability around 60% of an R1 finish.
- 02
Method
Schultz by Submission
HS wrestling + 5 subs including the technical Suloev Stretch. Around 30%, pays plenty.
- 03
Method
Johnston by KO/TKO
World-class Muay Thai + Schultz has shown vulnerability to strikers (2 TKOs absorbed). Around 30%,.
- 04
Avoid
either side
Too coinflip. No edge on ML. Go method or rounds.
Most Likely Outcome
Under 1.5 Rounds
Combined finish rate + 0% combined UFC decision = R1 finish is the modal scenario. Most defensible play without having to pick the winner.
Stats That Matter
2 years
Johnston's layoff
Retired March 2024.
6 weeks
Schultz's quick turnaround
Off the hard TKO loss to Pinas in Feb 2026.
12/13
Combined finish rate
1 decision in 13 combined wins.
Coin flip
Real market edge
Pickem-style lines expected.
The Trap
Trap: Johnston ML as the home favorite
The market may price Johnston heavy on the world-class Muay Thai + home crowd narrative. The trap: two years off is a MASSIVE measurable gap + Schultz has been tested at UFC level + 1.4 inches of reach. on a UFC debutant with two years of rust is mathematically wrong. Real edge sits in method/round, not moneyline.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Ben "The Butcher" Johnston vs Wes "Party Time" Schultz | UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates | May 2, 2026 | RAC Arena, Perth, Australia