UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates · May 2, 2026 · Middleweight (185 lbs) · 3R
Johnston vs Schultz
Honest Coin Flip
Two-year layoff vs 6-week post-KO turnaround. Both with massive red flags pointing in opposite directions.
Ben "The Butcher" Johnston
5-1-0 · Unranked
Wes "Party Time" Schultz
8-3-0 · Unranked
In 30 seconds
Ben Johnston wins by KO/TKO or Submission
- 2 yearsJohnston's layoffRetired March 2024.
- 6 weeksSchultz's quick turnaroundOff the hard TKO loss to Pinas in Feb 2026.
- 12/13Combined finish rate1 decision in 13 combined wins.
The key to the fight
THE DECIDING POINT
Layoff vs Quick Turnaround
Johnston is a two-time Muay Thai world champion (WBC LH 2018), 5-1 in MMA with a 100% finish rate (4 subs + 1 KO), but he retired in March 2024 — TWO YEARS OFF. Late UFC opportunity (Vendy out). 35 years old + ring rust + a baby on the way.
Schultz is a BJJ-wrestler with a growing submission game (Suloev Stretch on DWCS), but 0-1 in the UFC with a TKO loss at 2:30 of round 1 to Pinas two months ago. Quick turnaround off a hard KO. Layoff vs rebound = both massive red flags. Style-wise: stand-up favors Johnston (world-class Muay Thai) if the rust allows.
On the floor, Schultz is the more active grappler (CJJ-style sub game).
Johnston has world-class technical Muay Thai striking + R1-R2 KO power. Fighting at home in Perth. TFC camp + a documented training history under Eugene Bareman.
Schultz is six years younger, has 5 subs in 8 wins including rare techniques (Suloev Stretch). HS state wrestling champion. Plus 2.4 inches of reach.
Tale of the Tape
| Johnston | Tale of the Tape | Schultz |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | AgeSchultz six years younger. | 29 |
| 6'4" | HeightJohnston 2 inches taller. | 6'2" |
| 75.6" | ReachSchultz 1.4 inches of reach. | 77" |
| Two-time Muay Thai world champion | BackgroundClean stylistic clash. | BJJ + HS state wrestling champion |
| Two years off | LayoffRed flags in opposite directions. | Six weeks post-TKO |
Current form
Opponent caliber in recent fights
| Fighter | Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Opponent caliber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Johnston | Mar 2022 | Kaleb Rideout | L | KO R1 (1:10 spinning back fist) | 1 |
| Ben Johnston | Jul 2022 | Kahn Sandy | W | Submission | 1 |
| Ben Johnston | Jul 2023 | Emil Jeries | W | Submission | 1 |
| Ben Johnston | Sep 2023 | Yoon Seo Shin | W | Submission | 1 |
| Ben Johnston | Mar 2024 | John-Martin Fraser | W | Submission R2 (RNC 1:15) | 1 |
| Wes Schultz | Apr 2024 | Adland Benson | W | TKO R1 (3:39 GnP) | 1 |
| Wes Schultz | Aug 2024 | Mansur Abdul-Malik | L | TKO R3 (3:55, GnP elbows) | 2 |
| Wes Schultz | Oct 2025 | Mario Mingaj | W | Submission R1 (Suloev Stretch 1:51) | 1 |
| Wes Schultz | Feb 2026 | Damian Pinas | L | TKO R1 (2:30, punches) | 2 |
Ben Johnston · Recovering
5-1 career, every win by submission. Pre-UFC: submission of Fraser (RNC, 1:15) at Eternal MMA 83 in March 2024 = title. **Two years off MMA** (focused on coaching, got married, wife pregnant). Two-time Muay Thai world champion (WBC LH 2018 over Edwards). UFC debutant.
Wes Schultz · Sliding
Coming off a TKO loss at 2:30 of round 1 to Pinas at UFC FN Mexico in Feb 2026 — UFC debut. Before that: Submission R1 (Suloev Stretch 1:51) over Mingaj at DWCS S9 W10 = contract. Six-week quick turnaround off the hard KO.
Level of competition
Johnston
Average opponent level (1 to 5)1
Record4W-1L regional
Against the top 50W-0L
Schultz
Average opponent level (1 to 5)2
Record2W-2L recent (UFC + DWCS)
Against the top 50W-0L
Schultz has more tested UFC-level competition (1 UFC + 2 DWCS). Johnston only Eternal MMA Australia regional. Johnston's stats are built in regional context — flag the caveat.
Stats
Sig. Strikes per MinuteJohnston UFCStats empty (debutant). Schultz sample is one fight, 2:30 — huge variance.
Takedowns per 15 MinSchultz sample inflated.
Submissions per 15 MinSchultz offensive sub avg. Johnston regional only.
How they win and lose
Johnston
- KO/TKO 20% (1)
- Submission 80% (4)
- Decision 0% (0)
Schultz
- KO/TKO 25% (2)
- Submission 62% (5)
- Decision 13% (1)
Combined: 13 wins, 1 decision. A decision is statistically unlikely. R1-R2 finish is the modal scenario.
Skills
Where each fighter has the edge
1. Striking QualityEdge: Johnston (4/5)
Two-time Muay Thai world champion vs BJJ-wrestler.
2. Offensive WrestlingEdge: Schultz (3/5)
HS state champion + DWCS takedowns landed.
3. Offensive GrapplingEdge: Schultz (2/5)
Schultz BJJ + technical Suloev Stretch.
4. Rust / LayoffEdge: Schultz (2/5)
Schultz active. Johnston two years off.
5. Post-KO RecoveryEdge: Johnston (2/5)
Schultz took a TKO two months ago.
6. AgeEdge: Schultz (2/5)
29 vs 35.
On the feet, Johnston runs the show (world-class Muay Thai). On the mat, Schultz runs it (BJJ + wrestling). Whoever dictates location wins.
Full prediction
The thesis
The thesis: Ben Johnston wins because he has world-class technical Muay Thai, 2 inches of height, tested KO power, and the home crowd in Perth. Believe it'll be tight, but the path I see is Johnston winning if he keeps R1 standing. Collapses if two years of rust kills the technique, OR Schultz wins repeated clinch entries plus takedowns.
Honest 4 conviction. Real coin flip. The two-year layoff is a critical variable that can't be measured until the fight starts. Not enough convergent dimensions for 5.
What breaks the thesis
- Johnston shows rust in combat sequences
- Schultz lands repeated takedowns + finishes in a scramble
- Age 35 + baby on the way = scattered focus
- Schultz's post-KO recovery is better than expected
The underdog's path
Schultz uses the 1.4 inches of reach and six-year youth advantage to push pressure striking. When Johnston engages, he hits the clinch, drives the takedown. Sub R1-R2 in a scramble (Suloev Stretch or RNC).
- Land repeated clinches
- Survive the Muay Thai in R1
- Find the finish on the floor before R3