September 26, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, United States
Jackson
15-4-0
Unconfirmed34 years old
Simon
22-7-1
Unranked34 years old
Eight Years Later
A rematch of 2018: distance and clinch exits against pressure and connected offense.
Conviction
The lean draws on Jackson’s performance against Marcos and the possibility of combining scoring with entry defense. His two subsequent losses limit confidence; Simon has current standing and grappling routes. The 55% is an editorial winner estimate, not a calibrated frequency or a joint probability of winning by decision. Against Marcos, the context involved low output and clinching, without demonstrated offense equivalent to Simon’s; transfer from that precedent is limited. The 2% draw estimate allows for tied scorecards, including through a 10-8 round or a point deduction; it does not represent research uncertainty or a frequency derived from the fighters’ records.
The lean draws on Jackson’s performance against Marcos and the possibility of combining scoring with entry defense. His two subsequent losses limit confidence; Simon has current standing and grappling routes. The 55% is an editorial winner estimate, not a calibrated frequency or a joint probability of winning by decision. Against Marcos, the context involved low output and clinching, without demonstrated offense equivalent to Simon’s; transfer from that precedent is limited. The 2% draw estimate allows for tied scorecards, including through a 10-8 round or a point deduction; it does not represent research uncertainty or a frequency derived from the fighters’ records.
THE KEY EXCHANGE
Who connects offense after the first contact?
Jackson’s proposed route is to land as Simon approaches and keep producing after defending or exiting the clinch. Simon’s answer is to connect striking to entries and continue attacking after an initial defense. Their first meeting identifies a real grappling threat, while the rematch requires evaluating current execution. Reach, career averages and loss methods do not settle that exchange.
Jackson’s proposed route is to land as Simon approaches and keep producing after defending or exiting the clinch. Simon’s answer is to connect striking to entries and continue attacking after an initial defense. Their first meeting identifies a real grappling threat, while the rematch requires evaluating current execution. Reach, career averages and loss methods do not settle that exchange.
Truth A
Jackson can threaten clean counters and recover space, but must execute both under pressure.
Truth B
Simon can combine standing offense and grappling; neither one failed takedown nor an old victory determines this rematch.
Tale of the Tape
Both are 34 years old.
Jackson has an 11 cm height advantage
Measured reach differs by 17 cm; this does not prove control of distance.
Southpaw versus orthodox; neither stance grants an automatic advantage.
Jackson: 13 UFC bouts, excluding DWCS.
Current Form
Montel Jackson
Jackson scored a first-round knockdown but lost a split decision to Barcelos.
Split DecisionBout with Figueiredo at UFC Rio. Historical odds were not verified by sportsbook and timestamp.
Split DecisionControlled win, 30-27 on all three scorecards. Methodical but unspectacular.
Unanimous DecisionKO at 18 seconds of round one.
KO R 1Knocked out Yahya at 3:42 of round one in April 2023.
KO R 1Jackson enters after two losses that ended a six-fight winning streak. That is recent outcome context; decision losses alone do not reveal an invariant technical weakness or prove durability.
Ricky Simon
Majority draw: Simon won the first two rounds on all three cards; two judges scored round three 10-8 for Yanez.
Majority DrawUnanimous-decision loss in November 2025; Simon completed none of six takedown attempts.
Unanimous DecisionControlled win with three takedowns and over nine minutes of control time. Short-notice opponent, low-tier opposition.
Unanimous DecisionKnocked out Basharat at 3:58 of round 1. A rare KO finish for a wrestler, the hands do work.
KO R 1Unanimous-decision loss to Vinicius Oliveira in June 2024.
Unanimous DecisionSimon is 2-1-1 in his last four appearances. The draw with Yanez included effective standing rounds and grappling exchanges, followed by a difficult final round. The mixed results do not support a blanket claim that his wrestling has stopped working.
Level of Competition
They've already fought once (Simon won in 2018) and both lost to Raoni Barcelos in 2025-2026. The Barcelos fights revealed contrasting patterns: Simon went 0-for-6 on takedowns and lost by decision; Jackson landed a knockdown but couldn't sustain the advantage. Recent opposition has been low-caliber for both sides.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
UFC.com published aggregate, including DWCS; different opponents and exposure. Historical context, not a matchup forecast.
Strike Accuracy (%)
UFC.com published aggregate, including DWCS; different opponents and exposure. Historical context, not a matchup forecast.
Strikes Absorbed per Min
Jackson: Provider rates not reconciled for comparison. · Simon: Provider rates not reconciled for comparison.
Rates omitted from this comparison: UFC reports Jackson 1.40 and Simon 3.90; GIDStats 4.00 for both. Denominators and scope were not reconciled for a visual comparison.
Strike Defense (%)
UFC.com published aggregate, including DWCS; different opponents and exposure. Historical context, not a matchup forecast.
Takedowns Completed per 15 min
Jackson: Official completed-takedown counter conflicts with its rate; per-bout reconstruction pending. · Simon: Official completed-takedown counter conflicts with its rate; per-bout reconstruction pending.
UFC.com published aggregate, including DWCS; different opponents and exposure. Historical context, not a matchup forecast.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Jackson: Official completed-takedown counter conflicts with its rate; per-bout reconstruction pending. · Simon: Official completed-takedown counter conflicts with its rate; per-bout reconstruction pending.
UFC.com published aggregate, including DWCS; different opponents and exposure. Historical context, not a matchup forecast.
Takedown Defense (%)
UFC.com published aggregate, including DWCS; different opponents and exposure. Historical context, not a matchup forecast.
Submission Attempts per 15 min
UFC.com published aggregate, including DWCS; different opponents and exposure. Historical context, not a matchup forecast.
Jackson leads in 2 categories · Simon leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Career totals describe past results. Simon has KO/TKO, submission and decision wins; the distribution does not establish how he would beat Jackson.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
These are historical outcomes, not a durability test or a recipe for defeating either athlete. Jackson’s decision losses do not imply immunity to finishes, and Simon’s stoppage losses do not establish a current physical defect. Access, effective offense and opponent context must be evaluated separately.
Skills Profile
Jackson
vs
Simon
Striking at Range
+1 Jackson
Reach and southpaw stance offer an attacking setup, not automatic accuracy or takedown defense.
Knockout Power
+2 Jackson
Jackson: 8 KO/TKOs in 15 wins (53%). Simon: 7 in 22 (32%). Jackson stopped Blackshear at 0:18 and Yahya at 3:42, both in round one.
Offensive Wrestling
Even
Different-opponent aggregates and Simon’s 0-for-6 against Barcelos do not establish a direct offensive-wrestling ranking here.
Takedown Defense
Even
Historical defense percentages describe different samples, not the probability of stopping this opponent’s entry.
Chin and Durability
Even
Jackson has no recorded stoppage loss in 19 professional bouts. This does not prove a superior chin or immunity; comparative durability remains uncertain.
Current Momentum
Even
Jackson has two straight losses; Simon is 2-1-1 in his last four. Outcome sequences alone do not measure current skill.
The key question is whether Jackson can score and exit while Simon attempts to connect pressure, striking and grappling. These ordinal descriptions are editorial judgments, not calibrated probabilities or a tally that determines the winner.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction6/10Jackson must turn available distance into effective strikes and leave close exchanges before Simon connects control and offense. The preference is narrow and rests on execution, not a 17 cm reach advantage automatically stopping takedowns. If Simon chains clinch entries, takedowns and strikes without allowing comfortable resets, the case weakens.
Jackson must turn available distance into effective strikes and leave close exchanges before Simon connects control and offense. The preference is narrow and rests on execution, not a 17 cm reach advantage automatically stopping takedowns. If Simon chains clinch entries, takedowns and strikes without allowing comfortable resets, the case weakens.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Simon connects entries to effective offense and prevents Jackson from regaining distance.
- 02
Jackson fails to produce enough damage between clinch exchanges even while remaining standing.
- 03
Simon’s pressure forces unanswered retreat and lets him score in striking exchanges too.
Underdog Path
Simon alternates standing attacks with level changes and clinch entries, forcing Jackson to answer multiple threats. His decision route requires effective offense across rounds, while a submission needs a secure attacking position; completing one takedown is not enough.
Required Conditions
- Enter attacking distance without repeatedly taking clean counters.
- Turn pressure into strikes, submission threats or positions that permit offense.
- Answer Jackson’s clinch exits and remain competitive in subsequent rounds.
— Precedent: Simon beat Jackson by unanimous decision at UFC 227 through wrestling and grappling. That is a same-opponent precedent from 2018, not proof of repeat execution today. The 2026 draw with Yanez also shows Simon can win rounds in a largely striking contest. It was also Jackson’s short-notice UFC debut, which further limits transfer.
Verdict
Winner
Montel Jackson
Method
Decision
Most likely winner
Montel "Quik" Jackson wins
A narrow Jackson lean if he scores on entries and regains space after clinches. Simon can win through pressure and effective standing or ground offense. The uncertain 55% estimate refers only to the winner.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Montel "Quik" Jackson vs Ricky Simon | UFC Vegas 121: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos | September 26, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, United States
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