UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates · May 2, 2026 · Heavyweight (265 lbs) · 3R
Gaziev vs Pericic
Two Bears, One Round
Bahrani Bear vs Balkan Bear. The veteran arrives five months removed from a KO. The newcomer has never been past R1.
Shamil "The Bahrani Bear" Gaziev
14-2-0 · N/R Heavyweight
Brando "The Balkan Bear" Pericic
6-1-0 · N/R Heavyweight
In 30 seconds
Brando Pericic wins by KO/TKO R1-R2
- NEVERPericic past R1 in the UFC2 fights, 3:43 total. KOs at 1:48 and 1:55.
- 5 monthsSince Gaziev's R1 KOCortes-Acosta KO in 82s at UFC Qatar. Short window.
- 15.13Pericic's SLpM (unsustainable)Inflated by minimal sample. Will not hold over three rounds.
The key to the fight
THE DECIDING POINT
Whoever Survives The First Deep Breath
The easy story is Pericic — younger, fresher, two sub-2-minute KOs in a row, with Eugene Bareman in his corner after becoming Adesanya's permanent sparring partner. Read the tape and the picture gets more nuanced.
Pericic has NEVER been past round one in the UFC, and the only time he passed R1 in his entire MMA career (vs Rayment) he was finished by RNC at 1:36 of round two. His MMA cardio in long rounds is literally a question mark — 3:43 of total Octagon time.
Gaziev has survival tools: he's been four rounds with Rozenstruik, has a Dagestani chin (recent KOs notwithstanding), and his power is real (R1 TKO of Petersen with a walk-off right hand). If Pericic doesn't finish by ~3 minutes of R1, he steps into completely uncharted territory where Gaziev has the experience edge.
Pericic is younger (31 vs 36), taller (1 inch), 1 inch more reach, both orthodox. Coming off two sub-2-minute R1 KOs in consecutive months. CKB camp under Bareman, hand-picked by Adesanya for sparring in the rematch with Pereira. Fought in Perth on debut and KO'd in 1:55. Friendly stage, immediate momentum.
Gaziev has 13 pro MMA fights, 7 pre-UFC finishes all in R1-R2. Has been past R1 against real-calibre opponents (Rozenstruik 4 rounds, Mayes UD 30-27). Pericic has NEVER tested MMA cardio past 3:36 of R2 against Rayment, and when tested, he got submitted. Pericic's 15.13 SLpM is statistically impossible to sustain over three rounds.
Tale of the Tape
| Gaziev | Tale of the Tape | Pericic |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | AgePericic 5 years younger. Age matters at HW. | 31 |
| 6'4" | HeightPericic 1 inch taller. | 6'5" |
| 78" | ReachPericic 1 inch more reach. | 79" |
| Orthodox | StanceNo stance asymmetry. | Orthodox |
| KHK MMA Team (Bahrain) | CampFormer training under Abdulmanap. CKB under Bareman. | City Kickboxing (Auckland) |
Current form
Opponent caliber in recent fights
| Fighter | Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Opponent caliber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | Dec 2023 | Martin Buday | W | TKO R2 (elbows) | 2 |
| Shamil Gaziev | Mar 2024 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | L | TKO R4 (5:00) | 3 |
| Shamil Gaziev | Aug 2024 | Don'Tale Mayes | W | Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3) | 2 |
| Shamil Gaziev | Feb 2025 | Thomas Petersen | W | TKO R1 (3:12) | 2 |
| Shamil Gaziev | Nov 2025 | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | L | KO R1 (1:22) | 5 |
| Brando Pericic | Apr 2024 | Kelvin Fitial | W | Sub R1 (RNC, 3:26) | 1 |
| Brando Pericic | May 2024 | Randall Rayment | L | Sub R2 (RNC, 1:36) | 1 |
| Brando Pericic | Sep 2025 | Elisha Ellison | W | KO R1 (1:55) | 1 |
| Brando Pericic | Mar 2026 | Louie Sutherland | W | TKO R1 (1:48) | 1 |
Shamil Gaziev · Recovering
Coming off an 82-second KO loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta in a short-notice main event at UFC Qatar (Nov 2025). Taking an R1 KO at 36 in heavyweight is the classic decline signal.
Before that: a good run with a TKO of Petersen in February, a UD over Mayes — but the loss to Rozenstruik in March 2024 was already a cardio gas-out (corner stopped between rounds before R5). Emerging pattern: real power in the early rounds, but chin and cardio sliding.
Brando Pericic · Hot
Red-hot. Two consecutive UFC R1 KOs: TKO of Sutherland at 1:48 at UFC London (Mar 2026) and KO of Ellison at 1:55 at UFC Perth (debut, Sep 2025). 100% career finish rate (6/6 wins by finish, all in R1). Pro kickboxing background 18-2, former ISKA Super HW Commonwealth champion.
Hand-picked by Israel Adesanya for sparring in the rematch with Pereira, became permanent camp under Bareman. But the UFC sample is tiny: 3:43 of total Octagon time. MMA cardio in long rounds = zero sample.
Level of competition
Gaziev
Average opponent level (1 to 5)3
Record3W-2L (last 5)
Against the top 50W-1L
Pericic
Average opponent level (1 to 5)1
Record4W-1L (last 5)
Against the top 50W-0L
No common opponents. Calibre gap is large: Gaziev faced Cortes-Acosta (top 5), Rozenstruik (top 15), and Mayes (UFC vet). Pericic faced Sutherland (0-2 UFC), Ellison (UFC debutant), and Rayment (regional). 2-tier gap in favor of Gaziev (predicted loser). R2 Tier 1 calibre flag fires: note the calibre advantage, but Tier 2 does NOT fire because Gaziev has 2 recent KO losses and isn't in sustained elite tier.
Stats
Sig. Strikes per MinutePericic's 15.13 SLpM is inflated by minimal sample (3:43 total Octagon time).
Strike Accuracy (%)Pericic accuracy is higher, but on a sample of 2 R1 fights.
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/Min (lower is better)Gaziev SApM 4.73 is high. Pericic's 1.57 inflated by short fights.
Strike Defense (%)Gaziev strike def 42% is a clear vulnerability. Pericic minimal sample.
Takedowns per 15 MinNeither uses wrestling. The fight's on the feet.
Submissions per 15 MinPericic's only MMA loss was a sub (RNC). Sub defense is a gap.
How they win and lose
Gaziev
- KO/TKO 57% (8)
- Submission 36% (5)
- Decision 7% (1)
Pericic
- KO/TKO 83% (5)
- Submission 17% (1)
- Decision 0% (0)
Heavyweight has a decision rate of just 28.6%. Pericic is 100% finisher (6/6 R1). Gaziev is 93% finisher. Combined, Under 1.5 and Fight ITD are the two soundest legs in the book.
Skills
Where each fighter has the edge
1. Distance StrikingEdge: Pericic (2/5)
Pericic is a pro kickboxer 18-2, superior technique on the feet.
2. Knockout PowerEven
Both have real one-shot power.
3. Long-Round CardioEdge: Gaziev (3/5)
Gaziev has gone 15 (Mayes) and 4 rounds (Rozenstruik). Pericic 0:00 past 1:55 in the UFC.
4. Wrestling / ClinchEdge: Gaziev (2/5)
Trained under Abdulmanap. But TD avg 0.53 is low.
5. Submission DefenseEdge: Gaziev (3/5)
Pericic's only loss = RNC. Clear gap.
6. UFC ExperienceEdge: Gaziev (4/5)
Gaziev 5 UFC fights against real calibre. Pericic 2 fights, 3:43 total.
Pericic wins on pure striking and momentum. Gaziev wins almost everything that involves getting past the first deep breath. The fight pivots on who controls R1 timing.
Full prediction
The thesis
The thesis: Brando Pericic wins because, first, he's 5 years younger (31 vs 36) in a division where decline accelerates after 35 — and Gaziev just took a R1 KO 5 months ago. Second, the immediate momentum is overwhelming: 2 sub-2-minute R1 KOs in the last 7 months vs Gaziev's R1 loss.
Third, the Perth stage already proved his (debut R1 KO in Sep 2025). Path: Pericic exploits Gaziev's 42% strike defense in the first 3 minutes via R1 power. Collapses if Gaziev survives the early storm.
Conviction 6 because three dimensions (age, momentum, stage) converge on Pericic, but the R2 Tier 1 calibre flag FIRES: Sutherland/Ellison calibre never tested Pericic past 2 minutes, and Gaziev has survival tools that would invalidate the thesis if he gets past the early storm. Pericic's sample is literally 3:43 of Octagon time.
What breaks the thesis
- Gaziev survives the first 3 minutes of R1 with clinch or movement
- Pericic's R2 MMA cardio collapses, replicating the Rayment pattern
- Gaziev lands first with the power that dropped Petersen
- Pericic's weak sub defense becomes a factor if Gaziev leverages his Abdulmanap-camp grappling
The underdog's path
Gaziev opens cautious, avoids the jab line in the first 90 seconds, occupies clinch against the cage to neutralize R1 power. Pushes pace at the end of R1, makes Pericic mouth-breathe. Enters R2 with Pericic in unknown territory. Lands the right hand that dropped Petersen, finishes R2 or wins decision.
- Survive the first 3 minutes of R1 without getting dropped
- Force Pericic to clear 4 minutes of fight time for the first time in the UFC
- Land at least one clean right hand before R3
- Don't take the bait to trade open with a pro 18-2 kickboxer