October 3, 2026 · Delta Center, Salt Lake City, United States
Gautier
11-1-0
UnrankedCameroon | 24 years old
Kopylov
15-5-0
UnrankedRussia | 34 years old
The Storm Takes His Biggest Step Up
Gautier has dropped all five opponents he's faced in the UFC. Kopylov has never been stopped by strikes in 20 pro fights. Saturday puts at least one of those streaks to the test.
Conviction
The conviction score measures the quality of the evidence behind the thesis, not confidence in the win, which is why it can sit below the pick's confidence of 5. Conviction 4 because Gautier's side rests on his power, six knockdowns in five fights, but tested a level below this one. The six-inch reach edge is a physical fact, but the recaps don't show how much that reach contributed to the knockdowns. Kopylov's side rests on something just as real: he's never been stopped by strikes in 20 fights, and he rallied past Tulio. The Costa and Rodrigues losses stay out of this weighing as a pillar. They came from body kicks, sustained pressure and a takedown threat, and in Costa's case also a right hand that dropped Kopylov in round 1. Gautier's pressure is documented, he stalked Pulyaev through rounds 1 and 2, but Pulyaev outlanded him there; body kicks aren't documented, and his takedown game amounts to one against Vines. So those losses would only help Gautier if his power gets there. Gautier's only three-round test in the UFC exposed exactly the weakness Kopylov can exploit. The career stats have different scopes, and we couldn't reach UFCStats to check round-by-round numbers. This is a sporting read, made without odds.
The conviction score measures the quality of the evidence behind the thesis, not confidence in the win, which is why it can sit below the pick's confidence of 5. Conviction 4 because Gautier's side rests on his power, six knockdowns in five fights, but tested a level below this one. The six-inch reach edge is a physical fact, but the recaps don't show how much that reach contributed to the knockdowns. Kopylov's side rests on something just as real: he's never been stopped by strikes in 20 fights, and he rallied past Tulio. The Costa and Rodrigues losses stay out of this weighing as a pillar. They came from body kicks, sustained pressure and a takedown threat, and in Costa's case also a right hand that dropped Kopylov in round 1. Gautier's pressure is documented, he stalked Pulyaev through rounds 1 and 2, but Pulyaev outlanded him there; body kicks aren't documented, and his takedown game amounts to one against Vines. So those losses would only help Gautier if his power gets there. Gautier's only three-round test in the UFC exposed exactly the weakness Kopylov can exploit. The career stats have different scopes, and we couldn't reach UFCStats to check round-by-round numbers. This is a sporting read, made without odds.
THE DECIDING FACTOR
Gautier's Power Against a Chin That's Been Dropped, Never Stopped
Gautier's path runs through his power. He has a six-inch reach edge, but the recaps don't show that reach producing his knockdowns. Against Diaz, who was defending well, he chopped the lead leg and answered a lazy jab with the overhand right in round 2, and the recap doesn't say from what range. Against Pulyaev, both knockdowns came once he got into punching range, the only two of the six with range context in the recaps. On the other side, Kopylov lost round 1 on the majority of the cards in each of his last three fights, but only against Tulio was that a slow start followed by a rally. Against Costa and Rodrigues, two judges scored it 30-27 for the other guy, meaning every round, not just the first. Against Rodrigues he even landed a heavy left and finished round 1 on top. That's a veteran getting outscored by good opponents, not a slow-starter pattern. But the early rounds have cost him before: Costa dropped Kopylov with a right hand in round 1 as the Russian closed the distance. Gautier's early window comes from his own power, which has already ended three UFC fights in round 1, and that knockdown shows Kopylov can be put down early by a heavy hand. It's one fight, though, and he got back up. Kopylov's path is to survive and make it a long fight. Costa dropped him in round 1, wobbled him again in round 2, and he still saw the final bell. The precedent that should worry Gautier is Pulyaev: dropped twice, he hung on, both men faded in round 3 and Pulyaev started landing counter lefts after switching stances. Kopylov fights southpaw and mixes in body kicks and head kicks. Against Tulio he turned it around with knockdowns in rounds 2 and 3. Against Costa and Rodrigues, even though he came on late and wobbled Rodrigues with a head kick, two of three judges still gave round 3 to the other guy. A close round 3 is danger territory for Gautier, not a guaranteed win for Kopylov.
Gautier's path runs through his power. He has a six-inch reach edge, but the recaps don't show that reach producing his knockdowns. Against Diaz, who was defending well, he chopped the lead leg and answered a lazy jab with the overhand right in round 2, and the recap doesn't say from what range. Against Pulyaev, both knockdowns came once he got into punching range, the only two of the six with range context in the recaps. On the other side, Kopylov lost round 1 on the majority of the cards in each of his last three fights, but only against Tulio was that a slow start followed by a rally. Against Costa and Rodrigues, two judges scored it 30-27 for the other guy, meaning every round, not just the first. Against Rodrigues he even landed a heavy left and finished round 1 on top. That's a veteran getting outscored by good opponents, not a slow-starter pattern. But the early rounds have cost him before: Costa dropped Kopylov with a right hand in round 1 as the Russian closed the distance. Gautier's early window comes from his own power, which has already ended three UFC fights in round 1, and that knockdown shows Kopylov can be put down early by a heavy hand. It's one fight, though, and he got back up. Kopylov's path is to survive and make it a long fight. Costa dropped him in round 1, wobbled him again in round 2, and he still saw the final bell. The precedent that should worry Gautier is Pulyaev: dropped twice, he hung on, both men faded in round 3 and Pulyaev started landing counter lefts after switching stances. Kopylov fights southpaw and mixes in body kicks and head kicks. Against Tulio he turned it around with knockdowns in rounds 2 and 3. Against Costa and Rodrigues, even though he came on late and wobbled Rodrigues with a head kick, two of three judges still gave round 3 to the other guy. A close round 3 is danger territory for Gautier, not a guaranteed win for Kopylov.
Truth A
Kopylov has never been stopped by strikes in 20 fights, has taken shots from Costa and Rodrigues, fights southpaw, works the body and rallied past Tulio with knockdowns in rounds 2 and 3. Against Pulyaev, Gautier faded and ate counter lefts.
Truth B
Gautier has dropped all five of his UFC opponents, owns a six-inch reach advantage and faces a Kopylov who lost round 1 on the majority of the cards in each of his last three fights (every other round too against Costa and Rodrigues) and got dropped by Costa in round 1 in 2025.
Tale of the Tape
Gautier has a six-inch reach advantage
UFC.com doesn't list a valid stance for Gautier; FightingData lists him as switch
UFC.com doesn't list a gym for Kopylov
Current Form
Ateba Gautier
UFC 328. Diaz was willing to trade in round 1 and defended well behind a high guard. Gautier kept picking his shots and chopping the lead leg, waited on a lazy jab and dropped Diaz with the overhand right in round 2, then finished it with ground strikes at 1:10.
KO/TKO R2UFC 324. Dropped Pulyaev with an overhand right in round 1 and again in round 2 when he closed the distance, but both men slowed in round 3 and Pulyaev switched stances to land counter lefts. 30-27, 29-28, 29-28.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 320. Vines, a late-replacement debutant, shot, ate a knee, pinned Gautier to the fence and got finished with elbows and ground strikes at 1:41 of round 1.
TKO R1UFC 318. Finished it with punches at 1:10 of the first round.
TKO R1UFC debut. Punches and a knee, knockout at 3:32 of round 1.
KO R1Ten straight wins and 5-0 in the UFC since his 2024 Contender Series contract. Four of his five Octagon wins were stoppages, three of them in the first round. The one that went the distance, against Pulyaev in January, featured two knockdowns but also a much slower Gautier in round 3. He bounced back in May, dropping Ozzy Diaz with an overhand right and finishing him with ground strikes at 1:10 of round 2, officially a KO/TKO. The fight was booked in August with no replacement reported, and he comes in on 147 days of rest.
Roman Kopylov
UFC 328. Tulio took round 1 behind the jab, then opened a nasty cut by Kopylov's left eye in round 2. Kopylov rallied with three knockdowns in rounds 2 and 3. 29-28 on all three cards.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 322. Rodrigues pressured, mixed in takedown attempts and took round 2. Kopylov wobbled the Brazilian with a head kick in round 3 but couldn't turn it. 30-27, 30-27, 29-28.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 318. Costa went to work with leg and body kicks, dropped Kopylov with a right hand in round 1 as the Russian closed the distance, and wobbled him again with a right in round 2. Kopylov came on against a tired Costa in round 3, but too late. 30-27, 30-27, 29-28.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Fight Night 249. Head kick at 4:59 of round 3, with one second to spare.
TKO R3UFC 302. Squeaked it out on the cards.
Split DecisionComing off a decision win over Marco Tulio in May, after back-to-back unanimous decision losses to Paulo Costa and Gregory Rodrigues in 2025. He cracked the top 15, sitting at No. 14 when he fought Costa, and was already unranked by the time he met Rodrigues. Against Tulio he dropped the first round, took a nasty cut near his left eye in round 2 and turned it around with three knockdowns across rounds 2 and 3. He's 7-5 in the UFC and also comes in on 147 days of rest.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. The opposition average is the mean of the quality scores for each man's five recent fights listed above: 2.4 for Kopylov (Tulio, Rodrigues, Costa, Curtis and Almeida) and 1.8 for Gautier (Diaz, Pulyaev, Vines, Valentin and Medina). There's a real gap in level of competition, but it's a moderate one, and Vines was a debutant who took the fight on late notice. LowKick called this the biggest step up in competition of Gautier's career. Kopylov has shared the cage with Paulo Costa, Gregory Rodrigues and Anthony Hernandez. That doesn't mean Gautier will come up short at the next rung. The UFC records of Gautier's opponents weren't compiled, so the comparison stays with the editorial ratings and that step up.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Landed per Min
Gautier's UFC.com numbers include his Contender Series bout. Kopylov's are UFC only
Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Min
Gautier: UFC.com, includes his Contender Series bout. Kopylov: UFC.com, UFC career since 2019 (12 fights); 6.0 over his last five per FightingData. Career-wide opposition quality was not assessed
Striking Accuracy (%)
UFC only. Gautier: 110 of 293 significant strikes across five fights, rebuilt fight by fight from FightingData (UFC.com's 44% folds in his Contender Series bout). Kopylov: UFC.com
Striking Defense (%)
UFC only. Gautier: opponents landed 84 of 182 significant strikes across five fights, per FightingData (UFC.com, which folds in the Contender Series, also shows 54%). Kopylov: UFC.com
Knockdowns per 15 Min (UFC only)
UFC only. Gautier: six knockdowns in 27:33 of cage time, rebuilt fight by fight from FightingData (UFC.com's 2.87 folds in his Contender Series bout). Kopylov: UFC.com
Takedown Defense (%)
Gautier: UFC.com, folds in the Contender Series, a small sample of just over 36 minutes. In the UFC alone, opponents went 0-for-5 on takedowns per FightingData. Kopylov: UFC.com
Takedowns Landed per 15 Min
UFC only, via FightingData. Gautier's lone takedown came against Vines
Submission Attempts per 15 Min
Gautier leads in 4 categories · Kopylov leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both guys win by hurting people: nine of Gautier's 11 wins and 12 of Kopylov's 15 came by knockout. Neither has a submission win. The difference is timing. Gautier usually gets it done in round 1, while Kopylov's UFC knockouts came in rounds 2 and 3, including the head kick on Curtis with one second left.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Kopylov has never been knocked out in 20 fights. His five losses are two rear-naked chokes, to Roberson and Hernandez, and three decisions. Gautier's lone loss was a regional split decision in 2022. Neither man has been stopped by strikes, but Gautier has rarely had to absorb clean shots for long. That's an untested chin, not a proven one.
Skills Profile
Gautier
vs
Kopylov
Knockout Power
+2 Gautier
Gautier has dropped all five of his UFC opponents, six knockdowns in just over 27 minutes. Kopylov hits hard too, with 12 knockouts in 15 wins, but his knockdown rate is far lower.
Reach & Frame
+2 Gautier
6'4" with an 81-inch reach against 6'0" and 75 inches. The size edge is real, but the recaps say little about the range his UFC knockdowns came from. The Diaz knockdown was an overhand right answering a jab, with no range given, and only the two Pulyaev knockdowns come with that context: both landed once he got into punching range.
Striking Technique & Variety
+1 Kopylov
Kopylov is a southpaw who mixes his hands with body kicks and head kicks, and both kicks have produced UFC finishes. Gautier's documented Octagon toolbox is narrower: against Diaz he picked his shots and chopped the lead leg until the overhand was there, and against Pulyaev he ate body kicks and a head kick in round 2 and counter lefts in round 3.
Chin & Durability
+1 Kopylov
Kopylov has never been stopped by strikes in 20 fights, but he isn't untouchable: Costa dropped him with a right hand in round 1 and wobbled him again in round 2. He got up and went the distance. Gautier has never been stopped either, but he's barely been tested: his UFC fights average about five and a half minutes.
Cardio Over Three Rounds
+1 Kopylov
Kopylov averages 12:16 per UFC fight, which tells you how much cage time he's logged, not how well he performs late. He won rounds 2 and 3 on all three cards against Tulio, scoring a knockdown in each, and stopped Curtis at 4:59 of round 3, but against Costa and Rodrigues two judges still gave round 3 to the other guy even as he came on late. Gautier has seen a third round once in the UFC, and both men slowed down against Pulyaev.
Wrestling & Clinch
Even
Neither man has a UFC submission attempt. Kopylov lands more takedowns but has tapped to two rear-naked chokes. Gautier punished Vines for shooting. An unlikely route for either side.
Gautier has what wins fights early: size, reach and the kind of power that has dropped all five opponents he's faced in the UFC. Kopylov has mileage, variety and a chin that saw the final bell against Costa and Rodrigues, even after Costa put him down in round 1. Round 1 belongs to the Cameroonian on paper. Round 3 is up for grabs: Gautier faded in his only UFC third round, and across his last three fights Kopylov won round 3 on all three cards against Tulio, but against Costa and Rodrigues two judges gave that round to the other guy.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction4/10The thesis is: Ateba Gautier wins because he has the kind of power that has dropped all five of his UFC opponents, six knockdowns in just over 27 minutes, and because the route he has already run against a guy who survived, Pulyaev, is banking the early rounds with knockdowns and winning on the cards: all three judges gave him rounds 1 and 2, and two gave round 3 to Pulyaev. That precedent has limits: over the full fight, Pulyaev landed 59 of 123 significant strikes to Gautier's 34 of 112, per FightingData, and Cageside notes Pulyaev landed more as early as round 1. The recap credits the rounds Gautier won to knockdowns and pressure: in rounds 1 and 2 he stalked Pulyaev around the cage and pushed him back, but against a guy who survived and outlanded him. Against a Kopylov who has never been stopped by strikes and lands at 50% in the UFC, that script only works if the knockdowns show up again. Kopylov's recent losses are context, not a pillar: Costa and Rodrigues outscored him with body kicks, sustained pressure and a takedown threat, and Costa also dropped him with a right hand in round 1 as he closed the distance. That knockdown is the piece that lines up with Gautier's power, but Kopylov got up and went the distance. Gautier's documented UFC work, which amounts to fight recaps and result lines with no film review, shows pressure against Pulyaev in rounds 1 and 2, lead-leg kicks against Diaz and one takedown, 1-for-1 against Vines. Body kicks aren't documented, and a single takedown doesn't document a takedown threat. His pressure didn't guarantee volume either: Pulyaev outlanded him while backing up. Those cards only help Gautier if his power actually gets there. The access he has shown so far: against Diaz the knockdown came off an overhand right answering a jab, and against Pulyaev both came once he got into punching range. If Kopylov trades in rounds 1 and 2, Gautier has the weapon that already ended things against Diaz. It falls apart if Kopylov, who has never been stopped by strikes, avoids the early knockdowns or takes one of the first two rounds on the cards, because then round 3 is live, and that's where Gautier has already shown he can fade. It also falls apart if Kopylov lands first: he has UFC finishes in rounds 2 and 3, and Gautier's chin has barely been tested.
The thesis is: Ateba Gautier wins because he has the kind of power that has dropped all five of his UFC opponents, six knockdowns in just over 27 minutes, and because the route he has already run against a guy who survived, Pulyaev, is banking the early rounds with knockdowns and winning on the cards: all three judges gave him rounds 1 and 2, and two gave round 3 to Pulyaev. That precedent has limits: over the full fight, Pulyaev landed 59 of 123 significant strikes to Gautier's 34 of 112, per FightingData, and Cageside notes Pulyaev landed more as early as round 1. The recap credits the rounds Gautier won to knockdowns and pressure: in rounds 1 and 2 he stalked Pulyaev around the cage and pushed him back, but against a guy who survived and outlanded him. Against a Kopylov who has never been stopped by strikes and lands at 50% in the UFC, that script only works if the knockdowns show up again. Kopylov's recent losses are context, not a pillar: Costa and Rodrigues outscored him with body kicks, sustained pressure and a takedown threat, and Costa also dropped him with a right hand in round 1 as he closed the distance. That knockdown is the piece that lines up with Gautier's power, but Kopylov got up and went the distance. Gautier's documented UFC work, which amounts to fight recaps and result lines with no film review, shows pressure against Pulyaev in rounds 1 and 2, lead-leg kicks against Diaz and one takedown, 1-for-1 against Vines. Body kicks aren't documented, and a single takedown doesn't document a takedown threat. His pressure didn't guarantee volume either: Pulyaev outlanded him while backing up. Those cards only help Gautier if his power actually gets there. The access he has shown so far: against Diaz the knockdown came off an overhand right answering a jab, and against Pulyaev both came once he got into punching range. If Kopylov trades in rounds 1 and 2, Gautier has the weapon that already ended things against Diaz. It falls apart if Kopylov, who has never been stopped by strikes, avoids the early knockdowns or takes one of the first two rounds on the cards, because then round 3 is live, and that's where Gautier has already shown he can fade. It also falls apart if Kopylov lands first: he has UFC finishes in rounds 2 and 3, and Gautier's chin has barely been tested.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Kopylov avoids clean right hands in the first two rounds, stays off the canvas or takes one of those rounds on the cards, the Pulyaev script is gone: without a knockdown, the Russian can outland him the way Pulyaev did over the full fight, and round 3 is live in a near coin flip.
- 02
If Gautier fades in round 3 again like he did against Pulyaev, that alone doesn't flip the fight: with rounds 1 and 2 banked, dropping round 3 10-9 still leaves him up 29-28, and even a 10-8 only draws that card. The danger is the fade stacking on top of a Kopylov win in round 1 or 2, and then the Russian can take it on the cards, the way he rallied past Tulio.
- 03
If Gautier repeats the patient opening he showed against Diaz, picking his shots and chopping the lead leg, the round 3 risk shrinks and the thesis gets stronger.
- 04
If Kopylov lands takedowns consistently, something he averages 1.1 times per 15 minutes, control time could steal rounds from a Gautier who hasn't been taken down in the UFC but has only faced five attempts, three from Diaz and two from Vines.
Underdog Path
Kopylov doesn't gift round 1, stays off the line of the right hand from his southpaw stance and attacks the body and legs. He has two ways out. One is the knockout, which can come in any round: three of his five UFC finishes came in round 2, and Gautier's chin has barely been tested. The other is surviving the early bombs, taking one of the first two rounds and coming on in round 3 to win on the cards.
Required Conditions
- Decision route: survive the first two rounds without getting stopped
- Decision route: win at least one of the first two rounds on the cards, since with rounds 1 and 2 gone even a 10-8 in round 3 doesn't flip a card
- Decision route: win rounds on the feet, using body and leg kicks to drain Gautier
- KO/TKO route: land the finishing shot before he gets finished, in any round. In the UFC he stopped Ribeiro with a head kick at 0:33 of round 2, Fremd with a body punch in round 2, Soriano with a body kick and punches in round 2, Di Chirico in round 3 and Curtis with a head kick at 4:59 of round 3. It needs neither the cards nor a tired Gautier
— Precedent: Gautier vs Pulyaev (UFC 324, January 2026): per Cageside Press, Pulyaev went down in round 1 and again in round 2 but survived, and in round 3 both men slowed while he found counter lefts after switching stances. Over the full fight Pulyaev landed 59 of 123 significant strikes to Gautier's 34 of 112, per FightingData, with no round-by-round split captured. Per the same recap, Gautier stalked Pulyaev around the cage in rounds 1 and 2, pushing him back, and Pulyaev still finished round 1 with more strikes landed. Gautier won with the knockdowns and that pressure carrying the cards. It doesn't transfer directly, since Kopylov has a different style, but it shows the stretch of the fight where Gautier is vulnerable.
Verdict
Winner
Ateba Gautier
Method
Decision
Most likely winner
Ateba Gautier wins
Gautier has the frame and the power to win the first two rounds, as he did against Pulyaev, taking rounds 1 and 2 on all three cards. But Pulyaev outlanded him over the full fight, 59 of 123 significant strikes to Gautier's 34 of 112, with no round-by-round split captured, and Cageside has Pulyaev outlanding him as early as round 1. The rounds Gautier won came from knockdowns and pressure, walking Pulyaev backward, not from volume. Without a knockdown, that path gets a lot narrower. Kopylov lost round 1 on the majority of the cards in each of his last three fights and has been dropped by a Costa right hand in round 1, but he got up, and those opponents won with body kicks, sustained pressure and a takedown threat. Pressure shows up in Gautier's documented UFC work against Pulyaev, though it didn't win him the volume; body kicks don't show up, and his takedown game there amounts to one takedown against Vines. So that's context rather than proof of access. The uncertainty is high: the Russian has never been stopped by strikes, has faced somewhat tougher opposition across his last five and can take a close round 3, exactly where Gautier faded against Pulyaev. That's why the edge is small.
Stats That Matter
ZERO
knockout losses for Kopylov across 20 pro fights
Dropped by Costa in round 1 and wobbled in round 2 in 2025, but never stopped by strikes
6
knockdowns for Gautier in five UFC fights
All five opponents hit the canvas at least once
6
inches of reach advantage for Gautier
81 inches against 75
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov | UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang | October 3, 2026 | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, United States
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