May 16, 2026 · Meta Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Gantt
11-0-0 (1 NC)
UFC DebutBelleville, Illinois (NC State All-American) | 33 years old
Minev
7-0-0
UFC DebutOdessa, Ukraine (based in Las Vegas) | 22 years old
Two Undefeated Debutants, Five Days of Notice
Gantt brings NCAA wrestling, 10 finishes in 11 fights, and Daniel Cormier on the wall. Minev took it on five days to replace Trey Ogden. Yardbarker opened it /.
THE X-FACTOR
NCAA Wrestling Plus a Finishing Signature Against a Striker Who Said Yes on Five Days.
Trey Ogden pulled out with an injury on May 11. Artur Minev signed the contract and accepted the fight five days before the event — confirmed by Sherdog, Heavy.com, and MMA Mania. The numbers line up: the Ukrainian is 7-0 with six finishes in seven wins (four KOs, two submissions), five of those wins ending in round one. His only decision came the only time he stepped outside Fury FC and into a five-round main event — a majority decision over 37-fight veteran Junior Maranhão (25-13 at the time) in July 2025. The sample size is small and the calibre of his early opponents is modest. Across the cage, Tommy Gantt is a 2016 NCAA Division I All-American out of NC State, an ACC champion at 157 lbs, currently training under Daniel Cormier at The Academy Fight Club in Gilroy alongside Torrez Finney and Imanol Rodriguez. In 17 months as a pro, Gantt has fought 12 times, won 11 (one no-contest from an illegal knee by Kyle Wright), and finished 10 of those wins — five by submission, five by knockout. His guillotine on Adam Livingston at the Contender Series stopped the fight at 2:47 of round one and Dana White handed him the contract on the spot. The profile is clean: NCAA-level wrestler with a hand on his opponent's neck the moment the legs hit the mat. Minev has shown a chin (he went five with Maranhão) and real pop (28-second KO over Cristobal Ibanez, R1 KO over Shane Keefe, R1 TKO over Bellator veteran Derek Campos). But Gantt's path is structural: he drags the Ukrainian to the floor and locks the guillotine inside the first five minutes.
Truth A
Gantt is an NCAA Division I All-American (NC State 2016, ACC champion at 157 lbs) who has finished 10 of 11 pro opponents — five by choke (four guillotines and one D'Arce), five by KO, one by decision. Average fight time: 2:47. Trains with Daniel Cormier and a stable of elite wrestlers at The Academy Fight Club in Gilroy. 76.5" reach is elite for lightweight. He absorbed 0.36 sig strikes per minute in his ONE elite-level fight (DWCS) — sample size of one, but the structure is the offensive wrestler who closes the guillotine the moment his opponent tries to sprawl.
Truth B
Minev is 22, trains at Syndicate MMA under John Wood (MMA Junkie's 2025 Coach of the Year, also Merab Dvalishvili's lead), and accepted on five days. Six finishes in seven wins includes that R1 TKO over Bellator vet Derek Campos in January 2026 and the 28-second KO over Cristobal Ibanez. What he hasn't shown: takedown defense against a real NCAA wrestler. Maranhão is a boxing-grappling vet, not an ACC champion. The combined record of his opponents is 39-35 per MMA Prospect Vault — modest. And five days of notice for a striker against a wrestler is the worst-case prep window: a compressed weight cut, no specific gameplan, against a guy with a clear tactical identity.
Tale of the Tape
11-year gap. Gantt is a long-tail athlete (NCAA wrestling + NC State assistant coaching before pivoting to MMA in 2024). Minev is the young prospect.
Gantt 2 inches taller. UFC.com confirms 71 inches; Sherdog matches.
Gantt is 76.5 inches per UFC.com — elite reach for lightweight. Minev's reach is not listed in verified sources — flag for caveat.
UFC.com lists Gantt as "Freestyle." MMA Prospect Vault describes Minev as a striker effective from both stances.
Gantt trains under Daniel Cormier (Crazy Horse). Minev under John Wood — MMA Junkie's 2025 Coach of the Year and Merab Dvalishvili's lead coach.
Current Form
Tommy Gantt
Contender Series S9 Wk6 — UFC contract on the spot. Daniel Cormier on the wall. Livingston repeatedly grabbed the cage; Gantt locked the guillotine right after.
Sub R1 (guillotine, 2:47)Fight For It 24. Finished on the ground.
TKO R1 (4:44, punches)Reality Fighting at Mohegan Sun. Heavy hands.
KO R2 (2:34)NIF MMA 20. One of the very few fights to even reach R3.
TKO R3 (0:16)RCWC Halloween Brawl 8. Another guillotine.
Sub R2 (guillotine, 0:41)Pro debut April 2024. 12 fights in 17 months — 11 wins, 1 NC (illegal knee from Kyle Wright in August 2024). Won the Contender Series in September 2025 with a guillotine over Adam Livingston at 2:47 of R1; UFC contract on the spot, Daniel Cormier walking him out. Trains at The Academy Fight Club in Gilroy with Torrez Finney (11-0) and Imanol Rodriguez. NCAA Division I All-American (NC State 2016), ACC champion at 157 lbs. Served as NC State assistant wrestling coach before going full-time in MMA. Average fight time: 2:47. Five choke finishes (four guillotines plus a D'Arce) in 11 wins is a gameplan signature.
Artur Minev
Fury FC 113 at super lightweight (165 lbs). Campos is a former Bellator contender at 20-13 — best win on the resume.
TKO R1 (punches, 3:05)Fury FC 106 main event (officially listed by Sherdog as Elias Alves da Silva; the event was branded Maranhao vs Minev, with secondary outlets crediting the win as over Junior Maranhão, 25-13 vet — flag for source discrepancy). His only career decision. Went the full 25 minutes.
Majority Decision (5 rounds)Fury FC 103. Clean shot.
KO R1 (3:01)Fury FC 98. 28-second KO in his Fury debut.
KO R1 (0:28)XFC 51 Evolution. A guillotine, ironically — same shot that defines Gantt.
Sub R1 (guillotine, 3:29)Born in Odessa, Ukraine. Emigrated to the United States at 19 when the Russia war broke out — joined his brother in Massachusetts before moving to Las Vegas to train at Syndicate MMA under John Wood (MMA Junkie's 2025 Coach of the Year, also Merab Dvalishvili's lead coach). 7-0 as a pro: four KOs, two submissions, one decision. 28-second KO over Cristobal Ibanez in his Fury FC debut. R1 KO at 3:01 over Shane Keefe. R1 TKO over Bellator veteran Derek Campos (20-13) at Fury FC 113 in January 2026. His only decision was the only time he went five — Fury FC 106 main event over Junior Maranhão (25-13, 37-fight vet) in July 2025 in Westwego, Louisiana. Signed with the UFC on five days' notice after Trey Ogden pulled out injured on May 11. MMA Prospect Vault scouts him as a sharp, well-rounded striker with solid cage-based takedown defense, though the opponent calibre is modest (combined record 39-35) and his offensive wrestling output is low. Zero sample against an NCAA wrestler.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. Both are UFC debutants. Shallow resume on both sides: Gantt fought 12 times on small-circuit cards (NLC, NIF MMA, RCWC, FFIT, Shamrock FC, Reality Fighting) plus one Contender Series appearance in 2025. Minev fought seven times on regional cards (NEF, Combat FC, XFC, four at Fury FC), with his only decision (majority) coming over veteran Junior Maranhão (25-13 at the time). Minev's verifiable best win is Derek Campos (20-13, former Bellator contender) by R1 TKO in January 2026. Gantt's best is Adam Livingston at DWCS, but Livingston was also a regional-tier debutant at the elite level. Read: small samples on both sides — caution against overconfidence either way. What separates them is structure: Gantt has a verifiable athletic credential (NCAA D-I All-American) Minev doesn't.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Gantt has only one elite-level fight on the books (DWCS) at 1.08 sig strikes per minute — sample size of one, low output because he finished it at 2:47. Minev estimated at 4.5 from striker profile; no official UFC data.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Gantt 100% at DWCS is sample size of one — 2 of 2 before the finish. Not a stable stat. Minev estimated at 55% from striker profile.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Same sample-size caveat — Gantt absorbed little at DWCS because the fight ended at 2:47. Minev estimate of 2.5 is a striker-profile inference.
Striking Defense (%)
Gantt 67% at DWCS (sample size of one). Close.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Gantt landed 5 takedowns at DWCS — NCAA wrestling is the offensive identity. Minev estimated at 1.5 — he uses wrestling defensively in the clinch; offensive output is low.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Gantt 40% at DWCS (5 of 12, sample size of one). Should climb with reps.
Takedown Defense (%)
Unverified. Neither has a usable UFC sample. Minev has a reputation for solid cage-based TDD (MMA Prospect Vault), but he has never faced a real NCAA wrestler.
Gantt leads in 4 categories · Minev leads in 2
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Gantt finishes 91% of his wins (10 of 11) — an aggressive wrestler-grappler who doesn't hunt cards. Five choke finishes include four guillotines (three head-and-arm, one D'Arce). Minev finishes 86% (6 of 7), but with the inverse profile: four KOs come from heavy hands on the feet, two submissions came after clear positional advantage (guillotine and RNC). Each has one career decision — Gantt's came in Sept 2024 (UD at Shamrock FC), Minev's in July 2025 (majority at Fury FC over Maranhão).
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both are undefeated as pros. Gantt is 11-0 (1 NC from an illegal knee by Kyle Wright at NLC 27 in Aug 2024). Minev is 7-0. Zero loss sample on either side, so vulnerability reads by proxy: Gantt has never been tested by a heavy-handed primary striker at the UFC level; Minev has never been tested by an NCAA Division I wrestler.
Skills Profile
Gantt
vs
Minev
Offensive Wrestling
+5 Gantt
Gantt is NCAA D-I All-American (NC State 2016, ACC champion at 157 lbs). Clearest gap in the matchup. Minev has no verifiable wrestling credential.
Ground Game / BJJ
+4 Gantt
Gantt has five choke finishes in 11 wins — four guillotines and one D'Arce — that's a signature. Minev has two subs in seven wins (guillotine and RNC) but he's never been tested by a trip-and-rip wrestler.
Striking Volume
+3 Minev
Minev is a primary striker with heavy hands — 4 KOs in 7 wins. Gantt prefers to close distance and put it on the floor.
Knockout Power
+2 Minev
Minev: 28-second KO over Ibanez, KO over Keefe, TKO over Campos vet. Gantt: 5 KOs in 11 wins, but most came after a takedown.
Takedown Defense
+1 Minev
Minev has solid cage-based TDD by reputation (MMA Prospect Vault) but has never faced an NCAA wrestler. The estimate is scout-driven, not sample-driven. Flag of caution.
Cardio / 3 Rounds
+2 Minev
Minev is the only one who has gone 25 minutes (majority decision over Maranhão in July 2025). Gantt has never gone past R3 and his 2:47 average means deep-water cardio is an unknown. Five days of notice for Minev is the obvious qualifier.
Gantt dominates where his athletic structure took him: NCAA-level wrestling plus a ground game with a signature guillotine. Minev is an explosive striker with real pop, but the gap in defensive wrestling against an All-American is the headline risk. The Ukrainian's five-day notice cuts the prep window for a wrestler-specific gameplan.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis: Tommy Gantt wins because, first, he holds a verifiable athletic credential — NCAA Division I All-American (NC State 2016, ACC champion at 157 lbs) — and Minev has no equivalent sample.
The thesis: Tommy Gantt wins because, first, he holds a verifiable athletic credential — NCAA Division I All-American (NC State 2016, ACC champion at 157 lbs) — and Minev has no equivalent sample.
Second, Artur Minev took this fight on five days' notice after Trey Ogden withdrew with an injury (Sherdog, Heavy.com, MMA Mania, May 11, 2026), which is insufficient time to build a wrestler-specific gameplan.
Third, Gantt's signature is the guillotine (four of his five choke finishes) — exactly the shot that punishes a striker with a poor sprawl.
The path: Gantt closes distance in the first two minutes, lands the first takedown, locks the guillotine when Minev tries to stand. Falls apart if Minev's TDD is better than the scouting suggests, or if he connects heavy power in the first 90 seconds before Gantt gets to the body lock.
Conviction
Conviction 6 (not 7) because the wrestling gap is clear and the short notice weighs on Minev, but (1) Gantt's elite-level sample is ONE fight (DWCS) with zero official UFC reps; (2) his regional resume is shallow — five of his last six wins are on circuits smaller than Minev's Fury FC tier (NLC, NIF MMA, RCWC); (3) his 2:47 average hides deep-water behavior and his chin has never been tested by a heavy-handed striker; (4) Minev has real pop (28 seconds over Ibanez, R1 TKO over Bellator vet Derek Campos) and a serious gym in Syndicate under John Wood. The market opened Gantt / Minev on Yardbarker (May 13, 2026) — implied 73% on Gantt, which sits above the 62% estimate. Market edge could swing toward Minev if the public reads the sample-size flag harder than the structural one.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Minev lands a straight or overhand in the first 90 seconds before Gantt closes distance
- 02
Minev's TDD is sharper than the scouting suggests — he stuffs the first two attempts and forces a striking match
- 03
Gantt's cardio fails in R3 for the first time (2:47 average, has never been past R3 cleanly)
- 04
Gantt's chin cracks under heavy hands — it has never been tested at this level
Underdog Path
Minev's path has two arms. Arm A (early finish): a striker with heavy hands lands a straight or overhand in the first 90 seconds while Gantt is dropping his head to close the level and shoot. The 28-second KO over Ibanez proves the speed exists. Arm B (stretch to R3): defend the first two takedown attempts with cage-based wrestling (MMA Prospect Vault flags this as a strength), ride out the wrestler's pace, drag it to R3 where the five-day notice with a compressed weight cut becomes even — both men are walking into their first UFC fight with nerves on the line.
Required Conditions
- Stuff at least 2 of Gantt's first 3 takedown attempts
- Land 1 meaningful strike in the first two minutes to force respect
- Survive the cage clinch without giving up the back
- Hold cardio for 15 minutes after a compressed five-day weight cut
— Precedent: Minev went 25 minutes with Junior Maranhão at Fury FC 106 (majority decision in July 2025), the one time he's gone long. Maranhão is a 37-fight vet, not an NCAA wrestler, but the bout proves the cardio is there when needed. Successful sprawl-and-brawl against an elite wrestler on short notice is a known upset shape in UFC history — Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje at UFC 291 isn't a clean match, but the broader pattern of a striker absorbing the takedowns and forcing a striking match is a valid precedent.
Verdict
Winner
Tommy Gantt
Method
Submission R1-R2 (guillotine) or ground TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Tommy Gantt
Implied 73%, real estimate 62%. The market priced the wrestling-plus-short-notice combo heavily. Medium conviction because the sample-size flag on both sides is real.
- 02
Method
Gantt by Finish (sub or TKO)
Average fight time of 2:47 plus 10 of 11 wins by finish plus the guillotine signature plus Minev's short prep window equals an R1-R2 finish as the primary scenario. Specific-method picks (sub vs TKO) pay more, but the ITD-Gantt bucket consolidates the value.
- 03
Total Rounds
Under 1.5 rounds
Eleven of Gantt's 12 fights have ended before R3; six of Minev's seven have ended in R1. Both are finishers. Paths to a decision are narrow either way. Symmetric pick that wins regardless of who takes it.
Most Likely Outcome
Under 1.5 rounds
The most symmetric play on this fight. Both men finish: Gantt 91% of his wins before R3 (1 of 11 is a UD on a regional circuit), Minev 86% before R3 (5 of 7 in R1). If Gantt wins it's an early finish. If Minev wins it's an early KO. A decision is rare on both profiles.
Stats That Matter
5 days
Minev's notice to replace Trey Ogden
Sherdog, Heavy.com, MMA Mania — May 11, 2026. Short notice for a striker against a wrestler is the worst-case prep window: compressed weight cut plus zero gameplan time.
10/11
Gantt's pro finishes among his wins
5 KOs plus 5 choke finishes (4 guillotines, 1 D'Arce). Average fight time 2:47. NCAA wrestler with a finishing instinct.
NCAA D-I
Gantt's verifiable athletic credential
All-American NC State 2016, ACC champion at 157 lbs. Minev has no equivalent — the clearest structural gap in this fight.
/
Yardbarker line, May 13, 2026
Implied 73-33. The market priced the gap, but Minev with a 7-0 record and real pop is a live underdog price.
The Trap
The Trap: Minev by KO
The market will pay heavy on "Minev by KO" based on the four pro knockouts (28 seconds over Ibanez, R1 TKO over Bellator vet Campos). But the scenario where Minev knocks Gantt out requires Gantt to walk in as a boxer, drop his hands to close the distance, and accept a striking exchange. That's not Gantt's pattern — his shape is to drop levels and shoot the double, not to trade at range. Betting Minev by KO is betting Gantt abandons the wrestling identity that got him to the UFC. In 11 pro fights that hasn't happened yet.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Thomas "Tommy" Gantt vs Artur "Headhunter" Minev | UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa | May 16, 2026 | Meta Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada