September 26, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, United States
Gall
7-7-0
Unranked34 years old
Dumas
10-5-0
Unranked31 years old
New Weight, Same Bet
Gall moves up to middleweight at 34, returning after more than 22 months out. Dumas needs to stop getting submitted.
Conviction
Little separation between documented routes, with limited exposure to this matchup. The estimate is editorial and uncalibrated; size and inactivity do not settle the choice. The uncalibrated editorial 2% draw allowance covers tied scorecards, including a 10-8 round or point deduction; it is not research uncertainty or a frequency extracted from these records.
Little separation between documented routes, with limited exposure to this matchup. The estimate is editorial and uncalibrated; size and inactivity do not settle the choice. The uncalibrated editorial 2% draw allowance covers tied scorecards, including a 10-8 round or point deduction; it is not research uncertainty or a frequency extracted from these records.
TRANSITIONS
Jab, entries and neck exposure
Dumas has a documented decision route that combines phases: against Tiuliulin he emphasized grappling early, then used his jab to maintain range. Gall can disrupt that organization with punches that open a transition to the neck: against Williams the report describes punches that hurt him, guillotine attempts and a transition to the back for the rear-naked choke. He does not depend exclusively on a conventional takedown or a first-round finish. These are different opponents and examples from 2024 and 2021, not direct tests of this matchup. The slight preference for Dumas requires him to use his jab and choose entries without exposing his neck; his two most recent submission losses make that condition uncertain. Gall also has a decision win over Touahri, so his route does not end if the submission fails. Dumas by KO/TKO is an alternative through strikes disrupting entries; Gall by KO/TKO could arise from damaging punches before a transition, although he has no professional win by that method. Dumas by submission requires position and attack, not merely size; Gall by submission is the main countercase. Dumas by decision is a narrow editorial choice based on a documented combination of jab and grappling, not age, reach, step counts or familiarity with the weight class. Gall’s layoff and weight change add uncertainty without establishing diminished ability. Dumas’s submission defeats came by guillotine, ninja choke/no-arm guillotine and brabo/D’Arce; Gall’s six submission wins were rear-naked chokes after taking the back. His guillotine threat against Williams illustrates a possible transition, but does not establish that Gall can reproduce against Dumas the attacks used by those three opponents. McVey’s specific entry to the brabo was not reconstructed; the submission name does not identify the starting position. The distinction from Gall concerns the documented finishing method, not a claim that all three entries were identical.
Dumas has a documented decision route that combines phases: against Tiuliulin he emphasized grappling early, then used his jab to maintain range. Gall can disrupt that organization with punches that open a transition to the neck: against Williams the report describes punches that hurt him, guillotine attempts and a transition to the back for the rear-naked choke. He does not depend exclusively on a conventional takedown or a first-round finish. These are different opponents and examples from 2024 and 2021, not direct tests of this matchup. The slight preference for Dumas requires him to use his jab and choose entries without exposing his neck; his two most recent submission losses make that condition uncertain. Gall also has a decision win over Touahri, so his route does not end if the submission fails. Dumas by KO/TKO is an alternative through strikes disrupting entries; Gall by KO/TKO could arise from damaging punches before a transition, although he has no professional win by that method. Dumas by submission requires position and attack, not merely size; Gall by submission is the main countercase. Dumas by decision is a narrow editorial choice based on a documented combination of jab and grappling, not age, reach, step counts or familiarity with the weight class. Gall’s layoff and weight change add uncertainty without establishing diminished ability. Dumas’s submission defeats came by guillotine, ninja choke/no-arm guillotine and brabo/D’Arce; Gall’s six submission wins were rear-naked chokes after taking the back. His guillotine threat against Williams illustrates a possible transition, but does not establish that Gall can reproduce against Dumas the attacks used by those three opponents. McVey’s specific entry to the brabo was not reconstructed; the submission name does not identify the starting position. The distinction from Gall concerns the documented finishing method, not a claim that all three entries were identical.
Truth A
Gall created neck attacks after landing punches against Williams.
Truth B
Dumas combined grappling and jab against Tiuliulin, but his latest two losses came by submission.
Tale of the Tape
Dumas is three years younger
Dumas has 13 cm more reach; the measurement alone does not establish a technical advantage.
Current Form
Mickey Gall
UFC 309. Got stopped in the first round and had no answer for the pace.
KO R 1UFC 302. Outpointed across three rounds by Bassil Hafez. Couldn't get the fight to the ground.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 273. Stopped in the first round. Went nearly two years without competing after this loss.
TKO R 1UFC on ESPN 31. Lost to a gatekeeper by decision without getting the fight to the mat.
Unanimous DecisionLast career win. Rear-naked choke in round one, the one move that defines his game.
Sub R 1Gall enters on four losses, with his latest win over Williams in July 2021. The move from welterweight to middleweight and the layoff since November 2024 add uncertainty. Neither age nor the new division establishes that his entries will fail.
Sedriques Dumas
UFC FN 274. Submitted by a brabo/D'arce choke in round one. Second consecutive submission loss.
Sub R 1Johnson submitted him at 1:25 of round two. Nevada records a ninja choke; UFC’s recap calls it a no-arm guillotine after a front-headlock entry.
Sub R 2No Contest due to an accidental groin kick in the first round.
NC R 1UFC 314. Stopped by punches and elbows in round one. Part of a sustained losing run.
TKO R 1Mixed grappling early with jab-led striking later to win a decision; this was not an exclusively standing performance.
Unanimous DecisionTwo consecutive recent submission losses, Johnson in November 2025 and McVey in April 2026. Fremd was in March 2023; this is not three submissions in the last four bouts. MMA Fighting reported his roster removal in July and a June sentence of six months of community control followed by probation. The official card confirms his return. Current fight-day restrictions and any effect on training or performance are not verified here.
Level of Competition
No common opponents identified. Gall’s past UFC bouts were at welterweight; Dumas’s at middleweight. Opponent names and divisional familiarity do not establish a technical advantage.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Aggregates from different divisions and opponents: Gall at welterweight, Dumas at middleweight. Neither rate was adjusted for opposition or projects this bout’s output.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Gall: UFCStats is used for strike accuracy (49%), strike defense (49%) and takedown defense (37%); the UFC.com summary lists 50%, 50% and 38%. Per-minute averages remain attributed to UFC.com; providers were not averaged.
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Gall: previous welterweight aggregate; Dumas: middleweight sample. Rates against different opponents and divisions neither causally explain losses nor project absorption in this bout.
Strike Defense (%)
Gall: UFCStats is used for strike accuracy (49%), strike defense (49%) and takedown defense (37%); the UFC.com summary lists 50%, 50% and 38%. Per-minute averages remain attributed to UFC.com; providers were not averaged.
Takedowns Completed per 15 Min
Dumas: Published takedown counter and rate conflict; denominator not independently reconstructed.
Gall: 1.15 takedowns per 15 minutes attributed to UFCStats. Dumas: the published 1.30/15-minute rate does not reconcile with the count and accuracy shown by UFC.com; omitted pending bout-by-bout reconstruction.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Dumas: Conflicting takedown count and accuracy, without primary bout-by-bout reconstruction.
Sample size: Gall: 25
32% for Gall per UFCStats (8 of 25 attempts, against welterweights). UFC.com showed 16% (4 completions), resolved as incorrect; UFCStats per-bout count is authoritative
Takedown Defense (%)
Gall: UFCStats is used for strike accuracy (49%), strike defense (49%) and takedown defense (37%); the UFC.com summary lists 50%, 50% and 38%. Per-minute averages remain attributed to UFC.com; providers were not averaged.
Submission Attempts per 15 Min
Historical frequencies against different opponents and in different divisions; these are not submission probabilities. Gall also has a decision route.
Gall leads in 4 categories · Dumas leads in 2
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Career methods describe results, not mandatory routes. Gall can create neck access through punches and transitions, as against Williams, and has also won by decision. Dumas’s regional stoppages do not establish a current UFC finishing advantage. Dumas’s submission defeats came by guillotine, ninja choke/no-arm guillotine and brabo/D’Arce; Gall’s six submission wins were rear-naked chokes after taking the back. His guillotine threat against Williams illustrates a possible transition, but does not establish that Gall can reproduce against Dumas the attacks used by those three opponents.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Dumas has three career submission losses, two recently in succession; Gall has no submission loss. This establishes neither Gall’s immunity nor the inevitability of another Dumas submission loss.
Skills Profile
Gall
vs
Dumas
Stand-Up Striking
Even
The technical example must transfer to this opponent. Result totals, dimensions and inactivity do not directly measure this skill.
Takedown Access
Even
The technical example must transfer to this opponent. Result totals, dimensions and inactivity do not directly measure this skill.
Submission Offense
Even
The technical example must transfer to this opponent. Result totals, dimensions and inactivity do not directly measure this skill.
Submission Defense
Even
The technical example must transfer to this opponent. Result totals, dimensions and inactivity do not directly measure this skill.
Activity and Ring Rust
Even
The technical example must transfer to this opponent. Result totals, dimensions and inactivity do not directly measure this skill.
Weight Class Experience
Even
The technical example must transfer to this opponent. Result totals, dimensions and inactivity do not directly measure this skill.
Neutral rows indicate no demonstrated measurable advantage, not proven equality. The minimal Dumas lean is editorial: combining the jab and grappling entries shown against Tiuliulin. Transfer to Gall is uncertain and his submission threat limits conviction.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction5/10A slight preference for Dumas combining jab and grappling, as against Tiuliulin. Gall can create his own transition to the neck through punches, as against Williams. If Dumas exposes his neck or loses the exchanges, the choice reverses.
A slight preference for Dumas combining jab and grappling, as against Tiuliulin. Gall can create his own transition to the neck through punches, as against Williams. If Dumas exposes his neck or loses the exchanges, the choice reverses.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Gall turns punches into access to the neck without depending on a conventional takedown.
- 02
Dumas cannot score with the jab or loses position while attempting his own grappling.
Underdog Path
Gall can attack the neck in transitions created by punches or grappling. Dumas needs positional defense and effective strikes, not merely avoidance of a takedown.
Required Conditions
- Create an opening through punches, clinch work or a scramble.
- Convert neck access into a controlled submission threat while defending counters.
— Precedent: Against Williams in 2021, punches preceded guillotine threats and a back take for the finish. Different opponent, weight class and era limit transfer.
Verdict
Winner
Sedriques Dumas
Method
Unanimous Decision
Most likely winner
Sedriques Dumas wins
A slight preference for Dumas combining jab and grappling, as against Tiuliulin. Gall can create his own transition to the neck through punches, as against Williams. If Dumas exposes his neck or loses the exchanges, the choice reverses.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Mickey Gall vs Sedriques "The Reaper" Dumas | UFC Vegas 121: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos | September 26, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, United States
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