June 27, 2026 · National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
Fiziev
13-5-0
#11 LightweightBaku, Azerbaijan | 33 years old
Torres
17-3-0
#15 LightweightChihuahua, Mexico | 31 years old
Precision Against Chaos
Back home in Baku, Fiziev faces the heaviest single-shot power he's seen since Gaethje. Torres finishes in round one, but he's never learned what round three feels like.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Whoever Survives the First Five Minutes
Manuel Torres is the most explosive fighter in the lightweight top 20, and also the most unfinished. Sixteen of his 17 wins came in round one. In the UFC, he has never reached the third: he flattened Camacho, Motta, Duncan, Dober and the ranked Grant Dawson, all early. The problem is what shows up when the knockout doesn't. Against Bahamondes in 2024, he dropped his hands, charged forward, and walked into a perfect counter, twice, the second knockdown an identical copy of the first. Torres never adjusted. It's the portrait of a one-shot hunter. Across from him stands exactly the kind of striker who punishes that mistake. Fiziev is refined Muay Thai, measured rhythm, sharp counters, the best leg kick in the division. He's already shared the cage with Gaethje twice and knocked out Rafael dos Anjos in the fifth round. The question isn't whether Fiziev is more technical, he is. The question is whether his chin holds. In February, Ruffy unloaded a right hand on him that sounded like a baseball bat, and Fiziev admitted it: my head got smashed up. At 33, with a patched-up knee and two straight losses, he comes home to Baku knowing Torres brings the heaviest single-shot power he's faced since Gaethje. If Fiziev survives the storm of the first five minutes, the fight tilts onto his turf. If he doesn't, it's a wrap.
Tale of the Tape
Torres is 2 years younger and far fresher in career mileage
Torres has a 2-inch height edge
Torres carries a 2-inch reach edge, he's the bigger man
Current Form
Rafael Fiziev
UFC 325, Sydney. Survived round 1, but Ruffy landed a perfect right hand in round 2 and poured it on until the stoppage at 4:30. Fiziev admitted his head got smashed up. Chin red flag.
TKO R2Fought in Baku, at home, and beat the Chilean prospect on the cards. Returned to the top 15 with a solid win, but no finishing shine.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 313. Gaethje rematch taken on short notice. Started red-hot, but the former interim champ turned it in the final two rounds. Fight of the Night, a 29-28 unanimous decision.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Vegas 79. He was ahead when his knee buckled on a kick exchange in round 2, a torn ACL. A loss by injury and 17 months off the shelf after it.
TKO R2 (injury)UFC 286. The night that put him on the map: knocked out former champ Rafael dos Anjos in the fifth round of a main event. Five-round cardio, proven.
KO R5This is the soft spot in the thesis. Fiziev has won just one of his last five and rides a two-fight losing streak, the latest an ugly TKO loss to Ruffy in February, after which he himself said his head got smashed up. Add the knee history, a torn ACL that cost him 17 months, plus another scare on the same knee in 2025, and you've got a 33-year-old veteran with real mileage. What holds the read on him is the level: those losses came to Gaethje (a close decision and Fight of the Night) and Ruffy. He fights at home in Baku, with the crowd and five rounds to work.
Manuel Torres
UFC 323. He was the underdog against ranked wrestler Dawson. Defended the first two takedown attempts, stayed patient, and landed a left hook that dropped the American. Hammer fists and done at 2:25 of round 1. First win over a ranked opponent.
TKO R1UFC Mexico City. At home in Mexico, he dismantled tough veteran Drew Dober with a right hand and ground-and-pound at 1:45 of round 1. Brutal knockout, crowd in a frenzy.
TKO R1UFC 306, at the Sphere. The fight that exposed the hole: Torres dropped his hands, charged forward and walked into a Bahamondes counter. Got up and ate the same sequence again. Identical knockout, no adjustment.
KO R1UFC Vegas 87. Submitted Scotland's Chris Duncan with a rear-naked choke in round 1. A reminder that Torres' submission game punishes anyone who shoots in a panic.
Sub R1UFC Vegas 75. Flattened Nikolas Motta with an elbow in round 1. Another early bonus knockout, another fight that never made it past five minutes.
KO R1Torres is red-hot. Two straight first-round knockouts, the latest over Grant Dawson, the first ranked man he's beaten, in a fight where he was the underdog and the American's wrestling was supposed to smother him. It didn't. Torres has finished five of his last six inside round one and owns five Performance of the Night bonuses. The caveat lives in what we haven't seen: he's never been past the second round in the UFC, and the one time the fight stretched a little, against Bahamondes, he got knocked out for charging in. A one-shot hunter, lethal early, a question mark in deep water.
Level of Competition
This is where the resume gap lives, and it leans Fiziev. The Azerbaijani built his record against the upper tier: Gaethje twice, Rafael dos Anjos, Gamrot, Bahamondes. His losses came against elite. Torres, by contrast, made his name beating unranked names, Camacho, Motta, Duncan, Dober, and only now, against Dawson (#13), proved something against a ranked man. Both men faced Bahamondes: Fiziev won on the cards in 2025, Torres got knocked out by him in 2024. That direct parallel says a lot about who handles the pressure of a technical striker.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Torres is a machine gun, but Fiziev is more economical and precise
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Torres lands cleaner up close, Fiziev is surgical at range
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Both absorb plenty. In a firefight, someone is going down
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Both defend takedowns well, but neither man wants this on the mat. It's a striking fight
Submissões por 15 Min
Torres has the more active submission game, but Fiziev won't shoot
Fiziev leads in 0 categories · Torres leads in 7
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men finish, but in opposite ways. Torres is the pure hunter: 9 KOs and 7 submissions in 17 wins, just one decision in his entire career, and 16 of the 17 came in round one. He needs early impact. Fiziev is more balanced, 8 KOs with 4 decisions, a sign he knows how to win on the cards too, even against elite. It matters for the method: Torres wants it over early, Fiziev can build.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles tell the story. Fiziev has never been submitted: his 5 defeats came by knockout (3, including Ruffy in February) or decision (2, the Gamrot one a knee injury). His vulnerability is the firefight, and the chin became an open question after the recent KO. Torres has a smaller sample, just 3 losses, but all telling: 1 knockout (Bahamondes, charging in) and 2 submissions. He gets hurt when he overexposes at range and when the fight strays from the finish-early script. The practical read: Fiziev can be knocked out if he stands still in front of Torres, and Torres can be punished if he drops his hands against a counter-puncher. It's a duel over who forces the other's mistake first.
Skills Profile
Fiziev
vs
Torres
Striking em Distância
+2 Fiziev
Fiziev is the more refined striker at range, with the best leg kick in the division and measured reads. Torres wants to close the distance.
Striking em Curta Distância
+2 Torres
Up close, Torres' heavy hands and explosion win. That's how he flattened Dawson and Dober in a single round.
Poder de Nocaute
+2 Torres
Torres brings the rawest single-shot power Fiziev has seen since Gaethje. 9 KOs in 17 wins, all early.
Defesa de Striking
+2 Fiziev
Fiziev defends and counters better, but his chin became a question after Ruffy. Torres drops his hands and exposes himself.
Grappling e Clinch
+1 Torres
Torres has the more active and dangerous submission game, but the fight rarely hits the mat: neither man is a wrestler and both defend takedowns above 90%.
Cardio (5 rounds)
+4 Fiziev
A glaring gap. Fiziev has gone five rounds and knocked a man out in the fifth. Torres has never been past round 1 in the UFC, deep-water cardio is unknown territory.
Torres wins the first five minutes on power and explosion. Fiziev wins everything that comes after: technique at range, reads, and five-round cardio against a man who's never learned what the third round feels like. The question isn't who's more dangerous early, it's Torres. The question is whether he lands before the fight stretches onto Fiziev's turf.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Rafael Fiziev wins because he's the more refined, higher-IQ striker, tested against real elite (Gaethje twice, Rafael dos Anjos, Gamrot) while Torres only just beat his first ranked man, because Torres carries a documented defensive hole, he drops his hands and charges forward, and he was knocked out doing exactly that by Bahamondes, the same man Fiziev outpointed, and because this is a five-round fight and Torres has never been past round one in the UFC, which pushes the matchup toward the cardio and deep-water experience of an Azerbaijani who has knocked a man out in the fifth.
The thesis is: Rafael Fiziev wins because he's the more refined, higher-IQ striker, tested against real elite (Gaethje twice, Rafael dos Anjos, Gamrot) while Torres only just beat his first ranked man, because Torres carries a documented defensive hole, he drops his hands and charges forward, and he was knocked out doing exactly that by Bahamondes, the same man Fiziev outpointed, and because this is a five-round fight and Torres has never been past round one in the UFC, which pushes the matchup toward the cardio and deep-water experience of an Azerbaijani who has knocked a man out in the fifth.
The path is Fiziev surviving the storm of the first five minutes, making the Mexican miss and burn his gas tank, and from round 2 dictating the pace at range with the leg kick and the counter until he banks a lead on the cards. It breaks down if Fiziev's chin, freshly rattled by Ruffy in February, can't hold the heaviest single-shot power he's faced since Gaethje, or if he stands still in front of Torres and gets caught early.
Conviction
Conviction 5, no higher, because this is a genuine coin-flip. The thesis leans on four distinct dimensions (style, level of competition, physical/cardio and the qualitative read on Torres' defensive hole), but the underdog path is concrete, fresh and documented: Ruffy just did exactly what Torres wants to do, and Fiziev's chin is under open suspicion. GATE 4 applies here, Fiziev suffered a clean KO loss to strikes less than five months ago with no clean fight at range since, so any specific finishing pick for him is forbidden and the conviction is capped low. What keeps the lean on Fiziev and doesn't invert it is his far superior level of competition, the direct Bahamondes parallel (Fiziev beat the man who knocked Torres out) and the glaring five-round experience gap. This isn't a market read: the books have Fiziev favored, but the public is 80% on Torres. The edge comes from technique and cardio, not the line.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Torres lands the right hand on Fiziev's chin as early as round 1, the way Ruffy did in February, the fight ends early and the late-fade thesis never happens.
- 02
If Fiziev accepts the firefight up close instead of using range and the leg kick, he plays Torres' game and erases his own technical edge.
- 03
If the knee or the career mileage shows up and robs Fiziev of the mobility that powers his counters, the Azerbaijani becomes a stationary target.
- 04
If Torres' cardio does NOT fade in the championship rounds and he keeps his power into round 3 and beyond, the bet on the Mexican wearing down falls apart.
Underdog Path
Torres doesn't need an elaborate plan, he needs one shot. He comes out exploding, forces Fiziev to trade up close, and lands the right hand or left hook on the chin Ruffy already cracked. It's the script of every fight he's had: immediate pressure, one-shot power, and an opponent coming off a knockout with 33 years of mileage. If Fiziev hesitates or accepts the firefight in the first two rounds, the night ends early.
Required Conditions
- Close the distance and force the exchange up close, where Torres' heavy hands carry the most weight
- Land clean on Fiziev's chin in the first two rounds, before the fight stretches
- Don't charge in so recklessly that he drops his hands and eats the counter, the mistake that cost him against Bahamondes
- Close the show early: if it goes past round 2, the unknown cardio becomes a real risk against a five-round man
— Precedent: Ruffy vs Fiziev (UFC 325, February 2026): an explosive striker landed the right hand and dismantled Fiziev in round 2, with the Azerbaijani himself admitting his head got smashed up. Torres carries equal or greater power and the same hunter profile. The warning is fresh, it was Fiziev's last fight.
Verdict
Winner
Rafael Fiziev
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Rafael Fiziev
Fiziev because he's the more technical striker, with a far higher level of competition, and he has five rounds against a man who's never been past round 1. The market already sees it slightly, so it's a moderate stake, no fat edge. Breaks if his freshly-rattled chin can't hold Torres' hands early.
- 02
Como termina (qualquer lutador)
Fight goes to decision
Decision because it's exactly the scenario that favors Fiziev: drag Torres out of the finish-early script and stretch it onto the cardio turf. The market pays well because both men finish, but it ignores that if it goes past round 2, the fight turns tactical. Breaks if either man lands clean in the first 10 minutes.
- 03
Method (underdog)
Torres by R1 KO/TKO
It's the cleanest path to the upset and it has to be acknowledged: Torres flattened Dawson and Dober in round 1 and Fiziev's chin is cracked. The market pays well, but it's a conscious longshot, not the main read. Breaks if Fiziev uses range and refuses the firefight early.
Most Likely Outcome
Fight goes to decision, moderate stake
In a conviction-5 fight, the soundest read isn't the winner, it's the path. If Torres doesn't end it early, Fiziev's cardio and technique tend to stretch the fight, and the decision is where his edge actually shows up. Moderate stake because the Mexican's power keeps the finish risk alive the whole way.
Stats That Matter
16
of Torres' 17 wins came in round one. He's never been past round 2 in the UFC
Deep-water cardio is completely uncharted territory for him
ZERO
Fiziev career losses by submission. He goes down by strikes or decision, never submitted
Torres' submission game runs into a man who won't go to the mat
1
win in Fiziev's last 5 fights, with a recent KO suffered. The soft spot in the thesis
At 33, with a patched-up knee and a chin freshly rattled by Ruffy
The Trap
Torres by R1 knockout
The public is all-in on Torres, 80% of the money on is on him and the fan prediction on Tapology has him at 61%, all anchored on the two straight first-round knockouts and Fiziev's cracked chin. The trap is treating it as an automatic repeat. Torres hits hard, sure, but he's a one-shot hunter who's never been past round 1 in the UFC and who was already knocked out for charging in against a technical striker, Bahamondes, the exact man Fiziev beat. Betting Torres by R1 KO pays, but it ignores that if the knockout doesn't come early, the whole equation flips against him.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Rafael "Ataman" Fiziev vs Manuel "El Loco" Torres | UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres | June 27, 2026 | National Gymnastics Arena, Baku