October 3, 2026 · Delta Center, Salt Lake City, United States
Figueiredo
25-7-1
#9 BantamweightSoure, Brazil | 38 years old
Talbott
11-1-0
#11 BantamweightLas Vegas, Nevada | 28 years old
The Veteran Against the Clock
Figueiredo has nine submissions and nine knockouts on his record. Talbott is 10 years younger, taller, longer and lands 6.62 significant strikes per minute over his career to Figueiredo's 2.57 (UFC.com rates; Talbott's combine UFC and Contender Series).
Conviction
Conviction 5 because size and form point to Talbott, but the rates don't show a clear standing edge: his career output includes ground strikes and they absorb almost the same per minute (in UFC.com's aggregate, which combines UFC and Contender Series for Talbott). And the biggest threat to Talbott is exactly Figueiredo's specialty. Escaping Barcelos, Lima and Cejudo doesn't prove he always escapes. Working against the Brazilian: the skid, the January weight miss and a poor takedown success rate. The 10-year age gap is added uncertainty, not a reason: no source shows a current drop in pace or durability that can be tied to age. Working against the American: 301 days on the shelf and the opposition gap, since Figueiredo's recent window (Song, Umar and Jackson) includes Umar, ranked No. 2 at the time, who accounts for 15 of the 39.7 minutes and 8 of the 40 significant strikes, while Talbott's recent opponents don't have verified dated rankings.
Conviction 5 because size and form point to Talbott, but the rates don't show a clear standing edge: his career output includes ground strikes and they absorb almost the same per minute (in UFC.com's aggregate, which combines UFC and Contender Series for Talbott). And the biggest threat to Talbott is exactly Figueiredo's specialty. Escaping Barcelos, Lima and Cejudo doesn't prove he always escapes. Working against the Brazilian: the skid, the January weight miss and a poor takedown success rate. The 10-year age gap is added uncertainty, not a reason: no source shows a current drop in pace or durability that can be tied to age. Working against the American: 301 days on the shelf and the opposition gap, since Figueiredo's recent window (Song, Umar and Jackson) includes Umar, ranked No. 2 at the time, who accounts for 15 of the 39.7 minutes and 8 of the 40 significant strikes, while Talbott's recent opponents don't have verified dated rankings.
THE DECIDING QUESTION
Get to the Back Before the Rounds Slip Away
Figueiredo's path isn't made up. Barcelos showed in 2025 that Talbott struggles when someone keeps shooting and piles up control: eight takedowns, more than nine minutes of control and three rear-naked choke threats, two of them deep attempts in round 1. Lima and Cejudo also got to his back for stretches. And Figueiredo has nine career submissions, though only one at bantamweight: the rear-naked choke on Garbrandt in 2024. Access is the problem. Against a man five inches taller with 2.5 inches more reach, Figueiredo will likely have to shoot from farther out. That's an inference from the size gap, not something observed on film. Over his last three he's landed 3 of 9 attempts, and the last time he shot for a takedown, against Song, he got guillotined. Talbott threatened a guillotine of his own on Barcelos. Total output leans Talbott too: 6.62 significant strikes per minute over his career to Figueiredo's 2.57, per UFC.com, with Talbott's rate combining UFC and Contender Series. That rate includes ground strikes, so it isn't a pure stand-up measure, and they absorb almost exactly the same (3.41 vs 3.43, with the same UFC plus Contender Series mix on Talbott's side). Over their last three it was 242 to 40, but against different opposition, with Umar on Figueiredo's side of the ledger. The Barcelos comparison runs out in the numbers: he shot 15 times in a single fight and landed 8. Figueiredo has shot 9 times across his last three fights and landed 3.
Figueiredo's path isn't made up. Barcelos showed in 2025 that Talbott struggles when someone keeps shooting and piles up control: eight takedowns, more than nine minutes of control and three rear-naked choke threats, two of them deep attempts in round 1. Lima and Cejudo also got to his back for stretches. And Figueiredo has nine career submissions, though only one at bantamweight: the rear-naked choke on Garbrandt in 2024. Access is the problem. Against a man five inches taller with 2.5 inches more reach, Figueiredo will likely have to shoot from farther out. That's an inference from the size gap, not something observed on film. Over his last three he's landed 3 of 9 attempts, and the last time he shot for a takedown, against Song, he got guillotined. Talbott threatened a guillotine of his own on Barcelos. Total output leans Talbott too: 6.62 significant strikes per minute over his career to Figueiredo's 2.57, per UFC.com, with Talbott's rate combining UFC and Contender Series. That rate includes ground strikes, so it isn't a pure stand-up measure, and they absorb almost exactly the same (3.41 vs 3.43, with the same UFC plus Contender Series mix on Talbott's side). Over their last three it was 242 to 40, but against different opposition, with Umar on Figueiredo's side of the ledger. The Barcelos comparison runs out in the numbers: he shot 15 times in a single fight and landed 8. Figueiredo has shot 9 times across his last three fights and landed 3.
Truth A
Talbott has given up his back in each of his last three fights and escaped every time, including two deep rear-naked choke attempts and an arm-triangle from Barcelos in round 1. Each of those windows is a real threat from Figueiredo, who choked out Garbrandt in 2024, the only one of his nine submissions at bantamweight. A threat, not a sure thing.
Truth B
To get there, Figueiredo has to close the distance on a fighter 10 years younger with five inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach on him, and his last takedown attempt, against Song, ended in a guillotine.
Tale of the Tape
A 10-year gap
Talbott is five inches taller
Current Form
Deiveson Figueiredo
Macau main event. Song chopped at the calf, Figueiredo shot for a takedown and walked straight into a guillotine at 4:42 of round 2.
Sub R2UFC 324. Missed weight by 2.5 pounds. Umar took him down in round 1 and late in round 3 and swept the cards 30-27. Figueiredo threw up a guillotine in the first.
Unanimous DecisionUFC Rio. Takedowns in rounds 1 and 2, with time in mount. Jackson took round 3 on every card on activity, with a steady stream of leg kicks and a brief takedown. 29-28, 29-28, 28-29.
Split DecisionStopped at 4:08 of round 2 after his knee gave out during a leg-lock exchange. Sandhagen was up 54-6 in significant strikes at that point.
TKO R2UFC Fight Night 248. Five-round fight, went the distance and lost a unanimous decision.
Unanimous DecisionFour losses in his last five. The lone win in that stretch was a split decision over Montel Jackson. He dropped a decision to Umar Nurmagomedov in January after missing weight by 2.5 pounds, then got submitted by Song Yadong in May. He admitted he didn't expect the co-main slot coming off two losses. He returns 126 days after the Song fight.
Payton Talbott
UFC 323. Took Cejudo down twice in round 1, dropped him early in round 2 and hurt him to the body in round 3. He also gave up his back in the second. 30-27 across the board.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 317. Lima got early takedowns and briefly took the back. Talbott scrambled free, reversed in round 2 and dropped ground-and-pound from mount. 29-28 on all three cards.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 311. His first loss. Barcelos landed 8 of 15 takedowns, racked up more than nine minutes of control and threatened three rear-naked chokes, two of them deep attempts in round 1.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 303. Nineteen-second knockout.
KO R1UFC on ESPN 53. TKO on punches 21 seconds into round 2.
TKO R2Two straight wins since the first loss of his career, the latest over Henry Cejudo, who retired after the fight. He has since entered the rankings and sits at No. 11. The question mark is the layoff: 301 days out. He said he took a step back from sharing publicly and didn't mention an injury.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. Figueiredo's recent losses include Umar Nurmagomedov, ranked No. 2 at the time, plus Yan, Sandhagen and Song, whose dated rankings weren't verified. Talbott's recent opponents (Cejudo, Lima, Barcelos) don't have verified dated rankings either. The two windows come against different opposition, which limits any direct comparison of the numbers, but it doesn't erase what's documented in three of those losses: he dropped a five-round unanimous decision to Yan, lost 30-27 on all three cards to Umar and got outlanded 54-6 in significant strikes by Sandhagen. Against Song, the available record covers only the calf kicks and the guillotine, with no scorecards or strike totals to show who was winning the rounds before the finish.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. strikes landed per min (last 3 fights)
39.7 minutes for Figueiredo (Song, Umar, Jackson) vs 45 for Talbott (Cejudo, Lima, Barcelos). Different opposition: 134 of Talbott's 242 came in the Cejudo fight alone, and some came from top position, off mount against Lima. Some of Figueiredo's low number is time spent on his back against Umar. Career (UFC.com): 6.62 vs 2.57, with Talbott's rate combining UFC and Contender Series.
Sig. strike accuracy (last 3, %)
Sample size: Figueiredo: 87 · Talbott: 419
40 of 87 vs 242 of 419
Sig. strikes absorbed per min (UFC.com career)
Basically identical over their careers. Talbott's rate combines UFC and Contender Series; Figueiredo's is UFC-only
Takedown defense (UFC.com career, %)
Talbott's aggregate combines UFC and Contender Series and sits alongside the 8 of 15 takedowns Barcelos completed on him
Takedowns landed (last 3 fights)
Talbott: Counts conflict across UFC.com, ESPN and reports of the Cejudo fight
Sample size: Figueiredo: 9
Figueiredo: 3 of 9 attempts (Song 1 of 4, Umar 0 of 0, Jackson 2 of 5). His final shot against Song ended in a guillotine
Submission attempts per 15 min (UFC.com career)
Counts attempts, not completed submissions. Talbott's rate combines UFC and Contender Series; Figueiredo's is UFC-only
Knockdowns per 15 min (UFC.com career)
Talbott's rate combines UFC and Contender Series; Figueiredo's is UFC-only and blends flyweight and bantamweight
Figueiredo leads in 2 categories · Talbott leads in 4
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Figueiredo has the more balanced resume: nine KOs, nine submissions, seven decisions. But his last knockout win came against Benavidez in 2020, and his last submission was the rear-naked choke on Garbrandt in April 2024. Since his bantamweight debut in December 2023, that sub is his only win that didn't go to the cards. Talbott wins mostly by knockout (seven of 11), five of them on the regional scene and two in the UFC. His last three UFC fights all went to the cards.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Figueiredo's two TKO losses came from different places. Against Moreno in January 2023, in a flyweight title fight, the cageside doctor stopped it before round 4 after his right eye swelled shut from a left hook in round 3. That's damage from strikes, even though he wasn't knocked out, but it came at flyweight, more than three and a half years before this fight. He didn't debut at bantamweight until December 2023, so that precedent carries over to 135 only to a limited degree. Against Sandhagen in 2025, already at bantamweight, it was a knee injury in a leg-lock exchange, but he'd already eaten 54 significant strikes in under 10 minutes. None of his seven losses was a referee stoppage from strikes. He's also been submitted twice, by Moreno in 2021 and Song in 2026. Talbott has lost once, on the cards, to Barcelos, who landed 8 of 15 takedowns and racked up more than nine minutes of control. Never having been submitted isn't immunity: Barcelos threatened the rear-naked choke three times, with two deep attempts in round 1.
Skills Profile
Figueiredo
vs
Talbott
Range Striking
+2 Talbott
Talbott has five inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach on him. That's an edge on the tape, not an observed pattern: Figueiredo's recent fights don't isolate what reach does to him. On the tape alone, it leans Talbott, but only modestly. His higher total output doesn't factor in here, since it includes ground strikes.
Volume and Pace
+4 Talbott
242 significant strikes in 45 minutes vs 40 in 39.7 minutes, but against different opposition: 134 of the 242 came against Cejudo alone, while Figueiredo was facing Umar. Career UFC.com rates are 6.62 vs 2.57 per minute (Talbott's combine UFC and Contender Series), so the edge holds, just by a smaller margin than the recent window suggests. That's total output, ground strikes included, not a pure stand-up measure.
Knockout Power
+1 Talbott
Career knockdown rates are nearly identical (0.64 vs 0.59 per 15 minutes), but the samples differ: Talbott's combines UFC and Contender Series, Figueiredo's is UFC-only. The difference is recency: Talbott knocked out Saaiman and Ghemmouri in 2024 and dropped Cejudo in December 2025, while the last of Figueiredo's nine KOs came against Benavidez in February 2020. All of them came before his bantamweight debut in December 2023, and his career knockdown rate blends both divisions, so that sample carries over to 135 only to a limited degree. That tilts it slightly toward Talbott.
Offensive Wrestling
+1 Figueiredo
Figueiredo took Jackson down twice and got to mount. But he's 3-for-9 over his last three and he's the smaller man.
Submission Game
+2 Figueiredo
Nine career submissions, only one at bantamweight: the RNC on Garbrandt in 2024. The other eight predate his move up in December 2023. Talbott has given up his back to Barcelos, Lima and Cejudo, and escaped all three times.
Takedown Defense and Scrambles
+1 Talbott
Against Lima, Talbott scrambled free and reversed to mount in round 2. Against Cejudo, he got back to his feet after giving up his back. He also threatened a guillotine on Barcelos. The Barcelos loss shows that someone who keeps landing takedowns (8 of 15) can pile up control on him: more than nine minutes of it.
On the feet, the tape leans Talbott: five inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach. His total output is higher too, but that rate includes ground strikes and doesn't measure the stand-up. On the mat, Figueiredo owns the one tool that genuinely threatens him: the back-take and choke. The question is whether a 38-year-old can get there often enough. Over his last three he's landed 3 of 9 takedowns, and his final shot against Song ended in a guillotine.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction5/10Talbott wins because he has the reach, the height and the higher total career output, and because the recent Figueiredo has lost four of five and had his takedown entry punished with a guillotine by Song.
Talbott wins because he has the reach, the height and the higher total career output, and because the recent Figueiredo has lost four of five and had his takedown entry punished with a guillotine by Song.
The path is to dig to the body and throw uppercuts the way he did against Cejudo, stop or punish the entries and work out of bad spots when it hits the mat. Against Lima, he was stuck under early takedowns and only reversed in round 2, getting to mount. Against Cejudo, he gave up side control and his back before he stood up. It falls apart if Figueiredo lands clean takedowns and reaches the back, where Talbott has shown he's vulnerable in each of his last three.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Figueiredo completes a takedown in round 1 and settles on top without getting threatened, the access problem disappears and the submission window opens.
- 02
If Talbott comes back from the layoff flat and accepts short-range exchanges, Figueiredo's knockout comes into play: his career knockdown rate (0.64 per 15 minutes, UFC-only) is close to Talbott's (0.59, combining UFC and Contender Series), even though the samples differ. It's his thinnest-evidence path, since his last KO came in February 2020, before the move to bantamweight, and Talbott has never been stopped in 12 pro fights, but never having been stopped isn't immunity.
- 03
If Figueiredo makes weight cleanly, unlike in January, and keeps shooting for three rounds the way he did in the first two against Jackson, the recent-window numbers stop representing this fight.
Underdog Path
Figueiredo walks Talbott down, uses the threat of the heavy hands to disguise the shot, finishes an entry near the fence and works to the back. From there he hunts the rear-naked choke like he did on Garbrandt, or banks top time to win rounds. The knockout is a secondary route with thinner evidence: his last one came in 2020.
Required Conditions
- Close the distance without getting punished by Talbott's reach
- Land takedowns without exposing his neck, the mistake that cost him the Song fight
- Reach the back, where Barcelos, Lima and Cejudo have already been
- Hold the pace for three rounds at 38
— Precedent: Barcelos vs Talbott (UFC 311, January 2025): 8 takedowns on 15 attempts, more than nine minutes of control and three rear-naked choke threats, two of them deep attempts in round 1. The transfer is partial: Barcelos shot 15 times in a single fight, while the recent Figueiredo has landed 3 of 9 across three fights.
Verdict
Winner
Payton Talbott
Method
Decision
Most likely winner
Payton Talbott wins
Talbott brings five inches of height, 2.5 inches of reach and a much higher total career output (6.62 significant strikes per minute to 2.57 on UFC.com, with Talbott's combining UFC and Contender Series, a rate that includes ground strikes and isn't a pure stand-up measure). On the other side is a Figueiredo who's lost four of five and got guillotined by Song on his own takedown attempt. The recent window overstates the gap, since the opposition isn't the same, and they absorb almost identical career rates (Talbott's again combining UFC and Contender Series). The other side is real: Talbott gave up his back to Barcelos, Lima and Cejudo, and Figueiredo has nine career submissions. That grappling window, the opposition gap and the limits of career rates are why this stops at 61%. Editorial estimate, not a calibrated probability.
Stats That Matter
242
significant strikes for Talbott over his last three fights, vs 40 for Figueiredo
45 minutes vs 39.7, against different opposition: 134 of the 242 came against Cejudo, and Figueiredo spent time on his back against Umar
8
takedowns Barcelos landed on Talbott in 15 attempts at UFC 311
The clearest blueprint against him: 15 attempts in a single fight
3
takedowns Figueiredo landed in 9 attempts over his last three fights
Against Song, 1 takedown in 4 attempts, and the final shot ended in a guillotine
The Trap
Treating Talbott by KO as a lock
Age and a bad skid make it easy to picture Figueiredo getting put out, and the risk is real: he ate 54 significant strikes from Sandhagen in under 10 minutes. But he went the distance with Yan and Umar. The knockout is a real path for Talbott, but his last three UFC fights all went to the cards, including Cejudo, whom he dropped and couldn't finish.
Age and a bad skid make it easy to picture Figueiredo getting put out, and the risk is real: he ate 54 significant strikes from Sandhagen in under 10 minutes. But he went the distance with Yan and Umar. The knockout is a real path for Talbott, but his last three UFC fights all went to the cards, including Cejudo, whom he dropped and couldn't finish.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott | UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang | October 3, 2026 | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, United States
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