May 2, 2026 · RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Elliott
22-13-1
#11 FlyweightLee's Summit, Missouri | 39 years old
Erceg
13-4-0
#12 FlyweightPerth, Western Australia | 30 years old
The Sub Specialist vs The Hometown Volume
Elliott's 39, fresh off a submission of Asakura. Erceg's home in Perth — but he lost his last fight in this exact building. Real pickem.
THE DECIDING POINT
Whoever Dictates Where The Fight Happens
Erceg is a volume striker (4.37 SLpM) with a 1.16 takedown average and a BJJ black belt. Elliott is a wrestler-grappler (3.73 takedowns per 15, all-time UFC flyweight TD leader) with a signature guillotine. Stand-up means Erceg wins on volume plus the 5-inch reach edge. Elliott on top means his sub game cooks — and Erceg's 60% TDD is not elite. The complication: Elliott is 39, broke his leg in round 1 against Asakura and spent nine months recovering, and has been submitted four-plus times in his UFC career. Erceg lost his last UFC Perth fight (Kara-France KO R1) in this exact arena, and he came out of his last camp publicly asking, "was I a fraud all along?"
Truth A
Elliott is the most dangerous submission specialist in the division, just pulled off an upset against Asakura, and showed elite cardio (he fought a full fight on a broken leg). 61 career UFC takedowns — division record.
Truth B
Erceg is nine years younger, has 5 inches of reach, fights at home in Perth, and his BJJ black belt gives him the sub defense he needs. Out-volumes on the feet. Went five rounds with both Pantoja and Moreno without fading.
Tale of the Tape
Erceg nine years younger.
Erceg 1 inch taller.
Erceg owns 2.5 inches of reach.
Current Form
Tim Elliott
underdog. Broke his leg in R1 and finished the fight.
Submission R2 (mounted guillotine, 4:39)Performance bonus. Five-day notice replacement.
Submission R1 (arm-triangle, 4:02)Mokaev got the Performance bonus.
Submission R3 (arm-triangle)Solid decision.
Unanimous DecisionControversial decision — 12 of 17 media outlets scored it for Ulanbekov.
Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)Coming off a submission of Kai Asakura (mounted guillotine R2 4:39) as underdog — he broke his leg in round one and fought the entire fight injured. Performance bonus. Before that: a submission of Sumudaerji (Dec 2023, five-day notice replacement, Performance bonus). Over 600 days of layoff between those fights from the leg injury. He turns 40 in December — age curve is the obvious red flag.
Steve Erceg
Snapped a three-fight skid. Got rocked in R1.
Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)Five-rounder in Mexico City. Out-struck him 119-95 but lost the cards.
Unanimous Decision (49-46 x3)UFC 305 Perth. Same building. Overhand left into the cross.
KO R1 (4:04)UFC 301. Competitive.
Unanimous Decision (5R title)One-punch left hook.
KO R2 (0:26)Snap-streak fight. Came in off three straight losses (Kara-France KO R1, Pantoja UD title fight, Moreno UD 49-46) before beating Osbourne by decision in August. Got rocked in round 1 of that one before recovering. Confidence shaken — he literally said after the fight, "was I a fraud all along?" Last UFC Perth was a Round 1 KO at the hands of Kara-France in this same arena (UFC 305, August 2024).
Level of Competition
No common opponents. Erceg has faced higher-calibre names recently (Pantoja, Moreno, Kara-France) but lost all three. Elliott beat Asakura but hasn't fought a top-five opponent recently.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Erceg has the volume edge on the feet.
Strike Defense (%)
Defense is similar. Erceg absorbs 4.22 SApM — almost as much as he lands.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Elliott averages 2.5 more takedowns. Career UFC FW record holder (61).
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Elliott TD acc 47%. Erceg rarely shoots.
Takedown Defense (%)
Erceg TDD at 60% — not elite.
Submissions per 15 Min
Elliott is a guillotine specialist.
Elliott leads in 4 categories · Erceg leads in 2
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Elliott is a grappler-decision guy (41% submissions, 41% decisions). Erceg is more balanced career-wise but his recent UFC trend is decisions (3 of his last 4).
Skills Profile
Elliott
vs
Erceg
Volume Striking
+2 Erceg
Erceg 4.37 SLpM vs 3.39.
Offensive Wrestling
+4 Elliott
Elliott is the all-time UFC FW takedown leader. Erceg doesn't wrestle.
Submission Game
+3 Elliott
Guillotine specialist. Two subs in his last two wins.
Submission Defense
+1 Erceg
Erceg is a BJJ black belt. Elliott has been submitted four-plus times.
Cardio (5R)
+1 Erceg
Erceg has gone five with Pantoja and Moreno. Elliott fought on a broken leg.
Age / Durability
+3 Erceg
Nine-year gap. Erceg's recent KO loss is a flag, not chronic.
Elliott controls where the fight happens via wrestling. Erceg wins the stand-up and owns the reach. The fight pivots on who dictates the location.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis: Steve Erceg wins because he's nine years younger, owns 2.5 inches of reach, has the volume edge on the feet (4.37 SLpM), and his BJJ black belt neutralizes Elliott's primary sub threat.
The thesis: Steve Erceg wins because he's nine years younger, owns 2.5 inches of reach, has the volume edge on the feet (4.37 SLpM), and his BJJ black belt neutralizes Elliott's primary sub threat.
The path: Erceg manages distance with the jab and kicks, defends the early takedowns, and banks volume across three rounds.
This collapses if Elliott repeats the clinch entries plus takedowns plus guillotine hunt.
Conviction
Conviction 6 because Erceg's path is technical but Elliott is the most dangerous sub specialist in the division and just pulled off upset. Not a 7 because Erceg getting KO'd in this exact arena is a real flag.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Elliott forces repeated clinches in the first 90 seconds of round 1
- 02
Erceg takes the bait to trade in the pocket where reach evaporates
- 03
Guillotine or armbar in a scramble
- 04
Erceg's shaken confidence shows up in tight cards
Underdog Path
Elliott pressures from the opening bell, forces clinch against the cage to neutralize the reach, repeats takedowns. In scrambles he hunts back-take or guillotine. His cardio holds for 15 minutes. Submission win in round 2-3, or a decision if he can keep the volume close.
Required Conditions
- Force the clinch before Erceg can find his range
- TD acc above 50%
- Find back-take or neck in scrambles
- Cardio for 15 minutes without fading
Verdict
Winner
Steve Erceg
Method
Decision or late TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Rounds
Over 2.5 Rounds
Erceg went 5R with Pantoja, 5R with Moreno, 3R with Osbourne, 3R with Schnell — four of his last five hit the late rounds or finishes. Elliott's last two wins were R1-R2, but via guillotine rather than a power finish. Real probability of clearing 2.5 rounds is roughly 70%.
- 02
Winner
Steve Erceg
sits at 64%. Implied 64%. Marginal edge but aligned with the fight-by-fight read.
- 03
Longshot
Elliott by Submission
Sub specialist with subs in his last two wins. Erceg's a BJJ black belt but his 60% TDD is not elite. Real probability 25-30%, pays plenty.
- 04
Method
Erceg by Decision
Volume striking + reach + BJJ defense + tested 5R cardio = decision is the modal scenario. Real probability around 50%.
Most Likely Outcome
Over 2.5 Rounds
Erceg goes the distance over and over. Elliott at 39 with a leg coming off nine months of recovery isn't the explosive finisher anymore. Decision or late TKO is the modal scenario. Most defensible play on the card.
Stats That Matter
61
Career UFC takedowns by Elliott (FW record)
Elite wrestling base.
KO R1
Erceg's last UFC Perth fight
Kara-France in this same arena, August 2024.
Elliott's underdog odds vs Asakura
Upset on a broken leg.
+2.5"
Erceg's reach advantage
Kills Elliott's jab range.
The Trap
Trap: Elliott by Submission
The market pays Elliott by sub and the public will hammer it on his signature guillotine plus two submissions in his last two wins. The trap: Erceg's a BJJ black belt (decent sub defense), his 60% TDD is workable if not elite, and Elliott's been submitted four-plus times in his UFC career — meaning his sub game is also exploitable. The longshot is fine as a hedge. Treating it as your main play is the trap. Real edge sits in Over 2.5 rounds or Erceg by decision.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Tim Elliott vs Steve "Astroboy" Erceg | UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates | May 2, 2026 | RAC Arena, Perth, Australia