UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates · May 2, 2026 · Flyweight (125 lbs) · 3R
Elliott vs Erceg
The Sub Specialist vs The Hometown Volume
Elliott's 39, fresh off a submission of Asakura. Erceg's home in Perth — but he lost his last fight in this exact building. Real pickem.
Tim Elliott
22-13-1 · #11 Flyweight
Steve "Astroboy" Erceg
13-4-0 · #12 Flyweight
In 30 seconds
Steve Erceg wins by Decision or late TKO
- 61Career UFC takedowns by Elliott (FW record)Elite wrestling base.
- KO R1Erceg's last UFC Perth fightKara-France in this same arena, August 2024.
- Elliott's underdog odds vs AsakuraUpset on a broken leg.
The key to the fight
THE DECIDING POINT
Whoever Dictates Where The Fight Happens
Erceg is a volume striker (4.37 SLpM) with a 1.16 takedown average and a BJJ black belt. Elliott is a wrestler-grappler (3.73 takedowns per 15, all-time UFC flyweight TD leader) with a signature guillotine. Stand-up means Erceg wins on volume plus the 5-inch reach edge.
Elliott on top means his sub game cooks — and Erceg's 60% TDD is not elite. The complication: Elliott is 39, broke his leg in round 1 against Asakura and spent nine months recovering, and has been submitted four-plus times in his UFC career.
Erceg lost his last UFC Perth fight (Kara-France KO R1) in this exact arena, and he came out of his last camp publicly asking, "was I a fraud all along?"
Elliott is the most dangerous submission specialist in the division, just pulled off an upset against Asakura, and showed elite cardio (he fought a full fight on a broken leg). 61 career UFC takedowns — division record.
Erceg is nine years younger, has 5 inches of reach, fights at home in Perth, and his BJJ black belt gives him the sub defense he needs. Out-volumes on the feet. Went five rounds with both Pantoja and Moreno without fading.
Tale of the Tape
| Elliott | Tale of the Tape | Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | AgeErceg nine years younger. | 30 |
| 5'7" | HeightErceg 1 inch taller. | 5'8" |
| 66" | ReachErceg owns 2.5 inches of reach. | 68.5" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| NEXT Generation MMA (Missouri) | Camp | Wilkes MMA Perth |
Current form
Opponent caliber in recent fights
| Fighter | Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Opponent caliber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | Mar 2022 | Tagir Ulanbekov | W | Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3) | 3 |
| Tim Elliott | Jun 2023 | Victor Altamirano | W | Unanimous Decision | 2 |
| Tim Elliott | Oct 2023 | Muhammad Mokaev | L | Submission R3 (arm-triangle) | 4 |
| Tim Elliott | Dec 2023 | Sumudaerji | W | Submission R1 (arm-triangle, 4:02) | 2 |
| Tim Elliott | Aug 2025 | Kai Asakura | W | Submission R2 (mounted guillotine, 4:39) | 4 |
| Steve Erceg | Mar 2024 | Matt Schnell | W | KO R2 (0:26) | 2 |
| Steve Erceg | May 2024 | Alexandre Pantoja | L | Unanimous Decision (5R title) | 5 |
| Steve Erceg | Aug 2024 | Kai Kara-France | L | KO R1 (4:04) | 4 |
| Steve Erceg | Mar 2025 | Brandon Moreno | L | Unanimous Decision (49-46 x3) | 5 |
| Steve Erceg | Aug 2025 | Ode Osbourne | W | Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3) | 2 |
Tim Elliott · Hot
Coming off a submission of Kai Asakura (mounted guillotine R2 4:39) as underdog — he broke his leg in round one and fought the entire fight injured. Performance bonus. Before that: a submission of Sumudaerji (Dec 2023, five-day notice replacement, Performance bonus). Over 600 days of layoff between those fights from the leg injury. He turns 40 in December — age curve is the obvious red flag.
Steve Erceg · Stable (with caveats)
Snap-streak fight. Came in off three straight losses (Kara-France KO R1, Pantoja UD title fight, Moreno UD 49-46) before beating Osbourne by decision in August. Got rocked in round 1 of that one before recovering. Confidence shaken — he literally said after the fight, "was I a fraud all along?" Last UFC Perth was a Round 1 KO at the hands of Kara-France in this same arena (UFC 305, August 2024).
Level of competition
Elliott
Average opponent level (1 to 5)3
Record4W-1L (last 5)
Against the top 50W-1L
Erceg
Average opponent level (1 to 5)4
Record1W-3L (last 5 vs elite)
Against the top 50W-2L
No common opponents. Erceg has faced higher-calibre names recently (Pantoja, Moreno, Kara-France) but lost all three. Elliott beat Asakura but hasn't fought a top-five opponent recently.
Stats
Sig. Strikes per MinuteErceg has the volume edge on the feet.
Strike Defense (%)Defense is similar. Erceg absorbs 4.22 SApM — almost as much as he lands.
Takedowns per 15 MinElliott averages 2.5 more takedowns. Career UFC FW record holder (61).
Takedown Accuracy (%)Elliott TD acc 47%. Erceg rarely shoots.
Takedown Defense (%)Erceg TDD at 60% — not elite.
Submissions per 15 MinElliott is a guillotine specialist.
How they win and lose
Elliott
- KO/TKO 18% (4)
- Submission 41% (9)
- Decision 41% (9)
Erceg
- KO/TKO 31% (4)
- Submission 46% (6)
- Decision 23% (3)
Elliott is a grappler-decision guy (41% submissions, 41% decisions). Erceg is more balanced career-wise but his recent UFC trend is decisions (3 of his last 4).
Skills
Where each fighter has the edge
1. Volume StrikingEdge: Erceg (2/5)
Erceg 4.37 SLpM vs 3.39.
2. Offensive WrestlingEdge: Elliott (4/5)
Elliott is the all-time UFC FW takedown leader. Erceg doesn't wrestle.
3. Submission GameEdge: Elliott (3/5)
Guillotine specialist. Two subs in his last two wins.
4. Submission DefenseEdge: Erceg (1/5)
Erceg is a BJJ black belt. Elliott has been submitted four-plus times.
5. Cardio (5R)Edge: Erceg (1/5)
Erceg has gone five with Pantoja and Moreno. Elliott fought on a broken leg.
6. Age / DurabilityEdge: Erceg (3/5)
Nine-year gap. Erceg's recent KO loss is a flag, not chronic.
Elliott controls where the fight happens via wrestling. Erceg wins the stand-up and owns the reach. The fight pivots on who dictates the location.
Full prediction
The thesis
The thesis: Steve Erceg wins because he's nine years younger, owns 2.5 inches of reach, has the volume edge on the feet (4.37 SLpM), and his BJJ black belt neutralizes Elliott's primary sub threat. The path: Erceg manages distance with the jab and kicks, defends the early takedowns, and banks volume across three rounds. This collapses if Elliott repeats the clinch entries plus takedowns plus guillotine hunt.
Conviction 6 because Erceg's path is technical but Elliott is the most dangerous sub specialist in the division and just pulled off upset. Not a 7 because Erceg getting KO'd in this exact arena is a real flag.
What breaks the thesis
- Elliott forces repeated clinches in the first 90 seconds of round 1
- Erceg takes the bait to trade in the pocket where reach evaporates
- Guillotine or armbar in a scramble
- Erceg's shaken confidence shows up in tight cards
The underdog's path
Elliott pressures from the opening bell, forces clinch against the cage to neutralize the reach, repeats takedowns. In scrambles he hunts back-take or guillotine. His cardio holds for 15 minutes. Submission win in round 2-3, or a decision if he can keep the volume close.
- Force the clinch before Erceg can find his range
- TD acc above 50%
- Find back-take or neck in scrambles
- Cardio for 15 minutes without fading