September 12, 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United States
Elliott
21-14-1
#12 FlyweightKansas City, Missouri | 39 years old
Chairez
14-6-0 (1 NC)
UnrankedMexicali, Baja California | 30 years old
Whoever Wrestles, Wins
Every UFC-era loss on Chairez's record came from the same script, and Elliott runs that script better than almost anyone in divisional history. He's also 39.
Conviction
Conviction 5 because Chairez's path is every bit as concrete as mine, and I need to say that out loud instead of decorating the number. Elliott owns six career submission losses, five in the UFC, and two of them started exactly the way this fight can start: him diving on a takedown and handing over his neck, against Benavidez in 2014 and Figueiredo in 2019, both in round one. Chairez has 10 first-round finishes and enough pop to put a man down standing, with Bruno Silva hitting the mat twice before the choke. What keeps me on Elliott anyway isn't a loose stat: it's that four different opponents have already put Chairez underneath or taken his back between the Contender Series and the UFC, and not one of them got caught, while his three finishes inside the Octagon came against Daniel Lacerda, who lost all five fights he had with the promotion, against C.J. Vergara, and against a 36-year-old Bruno Silva coming off a loss. The problem Elliott presents on the mat is a different species, and the market opened on him because it's reading the age and the Mexican's win streak instead of the matchup.
Conviction 5 because Chairez's path is every bit as concrete as mine, and I need to say that out loud instead of decorating the number. Elliott owns six career submission losses, five in the UFC, and two of them started exactly the way this fight can start: him diving on a takedown and handing over his neck, against Benavidez in 2014 and Figueiredo in 2019, both in round one. Chairez has 10 first-round finishes and enough pop to put a man down standing, with Bruno Silva hitting the mat twice before the choke. What keeps me on Elliott anyway isn't a loose stat: it's that four different opponents have already put Chairez underneath or taken his back between the Contender Series and the UFC, and not one of them got caught, while his three finishes inside the Octagon came against Daniel Lacerda, who lost all five fights he had with the promotion, against C.J. Vergara, and against a 36-year-old Bruno Silva coming off a loss. The problem Elliott presents on the mat is a different species, and the market opened on him because it's reading the age and the Mexican's win streak instead of the matchup.
THE PARADOX
The Triangle Only Catches Men Who Posture Up
Chairez wins by submission in nine of his 14 victories and owns 10 first-round finishes. Elliott has been submitted six times, five of them inside the Octagon. Read it that way and the fight looks settled before the walkouts. Except it's worth asking where the Mexican's finishes actually come from. The one that most resembles what could happen here was Daniel Lacerda in February 2024: the Brazilian got on top, sat up to hammer away, got overzealous, and ended up stuck in a triangle at 2:17 of round one. Now count the men who chose the opposite. Clayton Carpenter on the Contender Series, Tatsuro Taira at UFC 290 and Joshua Van at UFC 306 combined for eight takedowns across those three nights, held position instead of swinging, and all three walked off with the cards and not a single scare. This past February, Felipe Bunes took Chairez's back and lived there for most of a round. He didn't get caught either. Which brings up the number nobody is looking at: across 22 UFC fights, Tim Elliott has never won by strikes. Seven decisions and three submissions. He is not the guy who gets on top and sits up to punch. He is the guy who gets on top and stays.
Chairez wins by submission in nine of his 14 victories and owns 10 first-round finishes. Elliott has been submitted six times, five of them inside the Octagon. Read it that way and the fight looks settled before the walkouts. Except it's worth asking where the Mexican's finishes actually come from. The one that most resembles what could happen here was Daniel Lacerda in February 2024: the Brazilian got on top, sat up to hammer away, got overzealous, and ended up stuck in a triangle at 2:17 of round one. Now count the men who chose the opposite. Clayton Carpenter on the Contender Series, Tatsuro Taira at UFC 290 and Joshua Van at UFC 306 combined for eight takedowns across those three nights, held position instead of swinging, and all three walked off with the cards and not a single scare. This past February, Felipe Bunes took Chairez's back and lived there for most of a round. He didn't get caught either. Which brings up the number nobody is looking at: across 22 UFC fights, Tim Elliott has never won by strikes. Seven decisions and three submissions. He is not the guy who gets on top and sits up to punch. He is the guy who gets on top and stays.
Truth A
Chairez finishes 64% of his wins, has 10 first-round finishes on his record, and has already caught someone from bottom inside the Octagon. Across from him is the most submittable man in this fight, six career submission losses, five of them in the UFC. On paper it's a trap already set.
Truth B
Except his finishes come off men who sit up and swing. The four times someone chose to hold position on top of Chairez or on his back, nobody got caught. And Elliott, across 22 UFC fights, has never won a single one by strikes.
Tale of the Tape
A nine-year gap, and Elliott turns 40 in December
A 5-inch reach edge for Chairez at identical height
Mismatched stances
Elliott debuted in the Octagon in 2012, when Chairez was still an amateur
Current Form
Tim Elliott
Got two takedowns across three rounds but lost the range battle and the fight 29-28 on all three cards in Perth. A clean loss with no damage taken.
Unanimous DecisionBack from 20 months off, broke his leg on a first-round kick, and still locked the guillotine at 4:39 of round two. One of the year's biggest upsets.
Sub R2Arm-triangle at 4:02 of round one on a ranked opponent. The fight ended exactly where Elliott always wants it to end.
Sub R1Held off the undefeated prospect for two rounds and got caught in an arm-triangle at 3:03 of the third. His most recent submission loss.
Sub R3Six takedowns in 15 minutes. The grappling clinic that explains why this Chairez matchup exists at all.
Unanimous DecisionTwo wins and two losses in his last four, and the résumé says more than the record does. He sat out 20 months between December 2023 and August 2025, came back as a live underdog against former RIZIN champ Kai Asakura, broke his leg on a kick in round one, and choked him out with a guillotine in round two anyway. In May he dropped a decision in Perth to No. 11 Steve Erceg, 29-28 across all three cards. At 39 he isn't collapsing, he's losing close fights to the top of the division.
Edgar Chairez
Dropped Bulldog twice, the second with an uppercut, took mount, and hunted the back on the escape for the choke at 4:13. The best win of his career, over the division's No. 15.
Sub R1Lost round one with the Brazilian on his back nearly the whole time, turned it around on aggression in the last two, and escaped with the split. The tightest night of the run.
Split DecisionFinish at 2:30 of round one and a Performance of the Night bonus. The kind of night that builds a reputation for early finishes.
Sub R1Inside the Sphere on Noche UFC. He owned round one with leg kicks, nearly went out in the second, and watched the future champion take him down in the third to close a 29-28 sweep. He was the tired man late.
Unanimous DecisionTriangle from his back at 2:17, with the Brazilian sitting up to punch. Proof of concept for his guard, and the rematch of the bout waved off by a referee error.
Sub R1Three straight wins and the best stretch of his career. He submitted C.J. Vergara in 2:30, edged Felipe Bunes on a split, and in June dropped Bruno Silva twice before taking the back for a rear-naked choke against the division's No. 15. The win still didn't put him in the top 15, and he walks into this one unranked. He publicly asked to fight three or four times in 2026 and to land on a big night like this one. At 30, he's the side on the way up. The caveat is named Bunes: he lost round one with the Brazilian on his back for most of it and escaped with a split card.
Level of Competition
No common opponents. Elliott has spent the last three years staring down the top of the division: Erceg, now No. 11, Sumudaerji at No. 13, an undefeated Mokaev, and former RIZIN champion Kai Asakura. That 10-12 UFC ledger is badly misleading, because nearly every loss came against a champion, a title challenger, or a man who went on to become both. Chairez climbed a different road: 4-2 in the Octagon plus an overturned result, with his best night being No. 15 Bruno Silva in June and his biggest name being that close loss to Joshua Van, who now holds the belt. Lower calibre, but genuinely rising.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Chairez is far easier to hit, absorbing nearly 60% more per minute
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
The number that decides the fight: 3.61 to zero. Chairez has never completed a UFC takedown
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
47% takedown defense against the man who lands more than three a fight
Submissions per 15 Min
The threat runs both ways, and that's the dangerous part of the thesis
Elliott leads in 5 categories · Chairez leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Chairez is the pure finisher: nine of 14 wins by submission and exactly one decision in his entire career. He solves it early or he has a problem, and those 10 first-round finishes back it up. Elliott is the mirror image: half his wins on the cards, eight submissions, and three knockouts that all came on the regional scene before 2012. Across 22 UFC fights he has never won by strikes. That matters for the method here: one man needs a moment, the other needs 15 minutes. One source note: UFC.com and UFCStats both list Elliott at 22-14-1, one decision win higher. This analysis runs on Sherdog's 21-14-1, the figure that reconciles with the itemized 36-fight log and with the win splits above.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is the whole fight. Elliott loses two ways: on the cards, seven of 14, and by the neck, six of 14, five of those inside the UFC against Benavidez, Ben Nguyen, Figueiredo, Royval and Mokaev. Knockout is the thing that doesn't happen: one KO loss in 36 pro fights, and it came in 2009 on the regional circuit, before the UFC. Chairez has never been knocked out, zero in six losses, and he loses exactly one way: four of six on the cards, to Carpenter, Taira, Van and Trujillo. His two submission losses came in 2018 and 2020, in Mexico, before the UFC. Translated to this matchup: the documented way to beat Chairez is to put him on the mat and hold position, and the documented way to beat Elliott is to catch his neck on a bad entry or outpoint him from the outside for 15 minutes.
Skills Profile
Elliott
vs
Chairez
Striking at Range
+2 Chairez
Five inches more reach, nine years younger, and 3.76 strikes per minute to 3.51. At long range the Mexican runs the show.
Close-Range Striking
+1 Chairez
Elliott lives in close to set up the clinch, but the man who does damage there is Chairez, who put Bruno Silva down twice in June.
Knockout Power
+3 Chairez
Four knockout wins for Chairez against three for Elliott, and none of Elliott's three happened in 22 UFC fights.
Striking Defense
+2 Elliott
56% defense and 3.00 absorbed per minute for Elliott, against 46% and 4.71 for Chairez. The Mexican takes a beating.
Luta Agarrada e Quedas
+4 Elliott
3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes against 0.00, into 47% takedown defense on the other side. It's the widest gap in the fight and it isn't close.
Submission Threat
+1 Chairez
1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes to 1.1, and Chairez attacks from anywhere. Elliott leans more on the front headlock and the guillotine.
Chairez wins almost every striking box: reach, power, youth, submission threat. Elliott wins one that matters, the grappling, and it happens to be the only one that has ever beaten the Mexican. The question isn't who owns more tools, it's whether a 39-year-old can still use his for 15 straight minutes.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction5/10The thesis is: Tim Elliott wins because Chairez's three losses since the Contender Series all came from the same script, with Clayton Carpenter, Tatsuro Taira and Joshua Van combining for eight takedowns across those nights and taking the cards, because Elliott lands 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes into a 47% takedown defense while the Mexican has never completed a single takedown in the UFC, and because Chairez's finishes come off opponents who sit up to punch, something Elliott has never done across 22 Octagon appearances in which he has never won by strikes.
The thesis is: Tim Elliott wins because Chairez's three losses since the Contender Series all came from the same script, with Clayton Carpenter, Tatsuro Taira and Joshua Van combining for eight takedowns across those nights and taking the cards, because Elliott lands 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes into a 47% takedown defense while the Mexican has never completed a single takedown in the UFC, and because Chairez's finishes come off opponents who sit up to punch, something Elliott has never done across 22 Octagon appearances in which he has never won by strikes.
The path is Elliott closing distance from the opening minute, turning every exchange into a clinch on the fence, banking top time through rounds one and two, and managing the third. It breaks down if he times a level change badly and gives up his neck, the way he did against Benavidez and Figueiredo, or if at 39 he can no longer hold position and the fight becomes 15 minutes at the Mexican's range.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Chairez stuffs the first two or three entries and forces this to stay standing in round one, the five-inch reach edge and the nine-year age gap start running the fight, and the whole script collapses.
- 02
If Elliott shoots with his head on the wrong side and the Mexican locks the guillotine or the triangle, it ends right there. That's how Benavidez and Figueiredo did it, both in the first round.
- 03
If Elliott gets on top and can't hold position, giving up sweeps or stand-ups, he burns fuel without scoring and hands over the cards exactly the way he did against Erceg in May.
- 04
If Chairez wobbles Elliott standing the way he wobbled Bruno Silva twice in June, the American can hit the mat the wrong way and give up his back.
Underdog Path
Chairez treats the first two minutes like life or death on takedown defense: sprawl on the first entry, heavy hips on the second, and force Elliott to trade at his range. With five more inches of reach and the hand that put Bruno Silva down twice, he starts landing on the American from the outside. From there it resolves through one of two doors: either Elliott forces a desperate entry and gives up the neck, and the Mexican hits the standing guillotine the way he did on Roberto Guerrero, or Elliott eats shots for 15 minutes and Chairez takes all three cards without needing a finish at all. Nothing rare has to happen here. It's the cheapest script on the card.
Required Conditions
- Stuff the first two or three Elliott entries inside round one, surrendering no top time
- Keep the fight at the end of the jab and the kick, using the five-inch reach edge, and never accept the clinch on the fence
- Make the American pay for every entry by attacking the neck from the front headlock
- Don't spend everything in the opening five minutes, the way he did against Joshua Van, when he arrived in round three as the more tired man
— Precedent: Elliott vs Steve Erceg (Perth, May 2026): Elliott landed two takedowns across three rounds and still lost 29-28 on all three cards, because he couldn't hold position and got outstruck from range. And Elliott vs Deiveson Figueiredo (October 2019): a badly timed entry, guillotine at 3:08 of round one.
Verdict
Winner
Tim Elliott
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Tim Elliott
Elliott because the only documented way to beat Chairez is to take him down, and the American lands 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes into 47% takedown defense. The market is wrong because it's pricing age and a win streak instead of the matchup: the Mexican has never completed a takedown in the Octagon, 0.00 per 15 minutes, and all three of his losses since 2022 came from men who wrestled him. Breaks if Chairez stuffs the first-round entries and drags this out to his range.
- 02
How It Ends (Either Fighter)
Fight goes past round one
Round one is where the public money will sit, because Chairez has 10 first-round finishes and all three of his UFC submissions came there. Except Elliott has gone past the first round in 18 of his 22 Octagon appearances. The market is wrong because it's pricing the Mexican's habit without checking the man standing across from him. Breaks if Chairez lands clean on the feet in the opening minutes.
- 03
Method
Elliott by decision
It's the likeliest ending inside my own scenario: takedowns, top time, tight cards. Seven of Elliott's 10 UFC wins came by decision, and Chairez's three losses since 2022 all went to the judges. The market is wrong because it's paying underdog prices on the method that is the American's bread and butter. Breaks if he can't hold position after he lands the takedown.
Most Likely Outcome
Tim Elliott
This is the side with a price, not the safe side. Conviction 5 means I give Chairez 47% and that one badly timed entry settles the night against me in 30 seconds. What justifies the play is the number: it opened in a fight I read as 50-47, and even after shortening to around there's still a price. Nothing here deserves a big stake.
Stats That Matter
0.00
takedowns per 15 minutes Chairez has landed in the UFC
The submission specialist has never put anyone on the mat inside the Octagon
8
combined takedowns from Carpenter, Taira and Van across Chairez's three losses since 2022
All three held position, took no risks, and walked off with the cards
ZERO
wins by strikes for Elliott across 22 UFC fights
Seven decisions and three submissions: he doesn't sit up to punch
The Trap
Chairez by first-round submission
This is the ticket the public buys. He has 10 first-round finishes on his record, he's coming off two rear-naked chokes and a triangle, and he fights on Mexican Independence Day weekend with the building behind him. Except his three finishes inside the Octagon came against Daniel Lacerda, who lost all five fights he had in the UFC, against C.J. Vergara, and against a 36-year-old Bruno Silva coming off a loss. Across from him is a man with 22 UFC fights who has gone past round one in 18 of them. And there's the detail nobody checks: four opponents have already put Chairez on the mat or taken his back between the Contender Series and the UFC, and not one of them got submitted. From the bottom, against someone who holds position, he hasn't proven anything yet.
This is the ticket the public buys. He has 10 first-round finishes on his record, he's coming off two rear-naked chokes and a triangle, and he fights on Mexican Independence Day weekend with the building behind him. Except his three finishes inside the Octagon came against Daniel Lacerda, who lost all five fights he had in the UFC, against C.J. Vergara, and against a 36-year-old Bruno Silva coming off a loss. Across from him is a man with 22 UFC fights who has gone past round one in 18 of them. And there's the detail nobody checks: four opponents have already put Chairez on the mat or taken his back between the Contender Series and the UFC, and not one of them got submitted. From the bottom, against someone who holds position, he hasn't proven anything yet.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Tim Elliott vs Edgar "Puro Chicali" Chairez | Noche UFC: Silva vs Delgado | September 12, 2026 | Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United States
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