September 26, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, United States
Dumont
13-3-0
#4 Women's Bantamweight35 years old
Perez
13-2-0
#5 Women's Bantamweight31 years old
Boxing and level changes
Dumont looks to score and disengage; Perez aims to connect entries with positional offense.
Conviction
The preference rests on observed entry and reversal sequences, not on a comparison of unmatched career rates or common-opponent arithmetic. Dumont can win exchanges while denying sustained attacking positions; that would overturn the pick. A Dumont submission would require stabilizing a controlling position and completing a choke; her two career submissions leave this route open, but both occurred before her UFC career and do not establish current effectiveness against Perez. The uncalibrated editorial 3% draw allowance covers tied scorecards, including a 10-8 round or point deduction; it is not research uncertainty or a frequency extracted from these records.
The preference rests on observed entry and reversal sequences, not on a comparison of unmatched career rates or common-opponent arithmetic. Dumont can win exchanges while denying sustained attacking positions; that would overturn the pick. A Dumont submission would require stabilizing a controlling position and completing a choke; her two career submissions leave this route open, but both occurred before her UFC career and do not establish current effectiveness against Perez. The uncalibrated editorial 3% draw allowance covers tied scorecards, including a 10-8 round or point deduction; it is not research uncertainty or a frequency extracted from these records.
COMMON OPPONENT PATTERN
The next action after contact
Perez gets a narrow preference for her demonstrated ability to turn defensive exchanges into offense and reconnect her wrestling. Against Chiasson she escaped an early back attack into top position, resumed grappling in round two and controlled the third. Against Rosa she timed level changes under forward pressure in the first two rounds; Rosa then kept the third standing. The proposed route is catching Dumont as she steps in, completing the transition and adding strikes or credible submission threats. Dumont can interrupt this by making Perez chase, exiting clinches and landing the sharper combinations, as her active boxing against Aldana illustrates. Different opponents and a 2024 striking example limit the transfer. Perez by decision is a slight preference because repeatable entries and offensive positions offer a scoring route; a submission requires further positional progress, while KO would require a more damaging exchange than this route assumes. Neither finish is ruled out. The percentages are uncalibrated editorial estimates. A Dumont submission would require capitalizing on a transition, stabilizing a controlling position and completing a choke. Her two career submissions leave this route open, but both occurred before her UFC career and do not establish current effectiveness against Perez; it is not the primary projected route.
Perez gets a narrow preference for her demonstrated ability to turn defensive exchanges into offense and reconnect her wrestling. Against Chiasson she escaped an early back attack into top position, resumed grappling in round two and controlled the third. Against Rosa she timed level changes under forward pressure in the first two rounds; Rosa then kept the third standing. The proposed route is catching Dumont as she steps in, completing the transition and adding strikes or credible submission threats. Dumont can interrupt this by making Perez chase, exiting clinches and landing the sharper combinations, as her active boxing against Aldana illustrates. Different opponents and a 2024 striking example limit the transfer. Perez by decision is a slight preference because repeatable entries and offensive positions offer a scoring route; a submission requires further positional progress, while KO would require a more damaging exchange than this route assumes. Neither finish is ruled out. The percentages are uncalibrated editorial estimates. A Dumont submission would require capitalizing on a transition, stabilizing a controlling position and completing a choke. Her two career submissions leave this route open, but both occurred before her UFC career and do not establish current effectiveness against Perez; it is not the primary projected route.
Truth A
Perez has documented level-change entries and reversals, with different opponents.
Truth B
Dumont has documented active boxing; its success here depends on exits and responses to wrestling.
Tale of the Tape
5 cm height advantage for Dumont
UFC records are separate from full professional histories. Perez’s 2021 DQ occurred at Samurai Fight House before her UFC debut.
Current Form
Norma Dumont
Unanimous-decision loss ended six straight wins. The official announcement identified Edwards as #11 and Dumont as #3; Tapology’s #6 is not used as the UFC ranking at that time.
Unanimous DecisionSplit-decision victory over ranked bantamweight Ketlen Vieira.
Split DecisionActive boxing from Dumont, with Aldana pressing later; official UFC 306 recap.
Unanimous DecisionDecision win at bantamweight (135 lb), April 2024.
Unanimous DecisionDecision win at featherweight in July 2023.
Unanimous DecisionDumont had six straight wins when the UFC matched her against Joselyne Edwards in April 2026. She dropped a unanimous decision and fell from No. 2 to No. 4 in the rankings. It's her first loss since 2022, and the résumé heading in is strong (Vieira, Aldana), but the momentum got cut off at the worst possible moment. That run comprised Wolf, Rosa, Chandler, de Randamie, Aldana and Vieira, from September 2022 through November 2025.
Ailin Perez
Perez escaped early back exposure and recovered top position; grappling in rounds two and three supported a 29-28 unanimous decision.
Unanimous DecisionConsistent win controlling pace through grappling. Rosa is a durable veteran.
Unanimous DecisionQuick arm-triangle finish in round one. Opposition below her current level.
Sub R 1Perez scored a spinning-backfist knockdown in round two and won a decision, but Edwards repeatedly reversed her throws and dragdowns. Top position was not automatically secure.
Unanimous DecisionUnanimous decision win in November 2023.
Unanimous DecisionPerez beat Chiasson in February 2026 and Edwards in June 2024. Dumont lost to Chiasson in May 2022 and Edwards in April 2026. These are separate matchups and periods, not a transitive ranking of the two fighters.
Level of Competition
Edwards, Chiasson, and Karol Rosa are common opponents. Perez beat all three; Dumont lost to Edwards (UD, April 2026) and Chiasson (SD, May 2022) and beat Rosa (UD, April 2023). Rosa is the only common opponent where both fighters won, so she doesn't differentiate the matchup.
Statistical Comparison
Significant Strikes per Minute
UFC career aggregates against different opponents and across divisions, without quantitative opponent or exposure adjustment. Numerators and base minutes were not reconstructed; these do not establish a direct advantage in this bout.
Striking Accuracy (%)
UFC career aggregates against different opponents and across divisions, without quantitative opponent or exposure adjustment. Numerators and base minutes were not reconstructed; these do not establish a direct advantage in this bout.
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Historical aggregates against different opponents and exposure contexts, without statistical adjustment. Absorbed strikes do not measure damage; the rate does not project performance in this bout.
Striking Defense (%)
Historical aggregates against different opponents and exposure contexts, without statistical adjustment. Absorbed strikes do not measure damage; the rate does not project performance in this bout.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Dumont: 12 UFC bouts; Perez: seven. Different opponents, divisions and time exposure were not statistically adjusted; the rates do not project takedowns in this bout.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Perez: Available secondary total may include pre-UFC bouts; a matching UFC denominator was not verified.
Available secondary total may include pre-UFC bouts; a matching UFC denominator was not verified. CBS reports 49% (29/59), but a comparable UFC denominator was not verified; that figure does not establish an edge over Dumont’s 16%.
Takedown Defense (%)
UFC career aggregates against different opponents and across divisions, without quantitative opponent or exposure adjustment. Numerators and base minutes were not reconstructed; these do not establish a direct advantage in this bout.
Submission Attempts per 15 Min
UFC career aggregates against different opponents and across divisions, without quantitative opponent or exposure adjustment. Numerators and base minutes were not reconstructed; these do not establish a direct advantage in this bout.
Dumont leads in 2 categories · Perez leads in 5
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Perez’s four KO/TKO wins are pre-UFC; Dumont’s decision-heavy history is descriptive, not a prediction. Finishing access must be assessed in this matchup. Dumont’s two submissions also predate the UFC.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Disqualification
Dumont has one KO/TKO loss and two decision losses; Perez has one submission loss and one disqualification. Historical methods do not establish current durability or by themselves explain the technical sequences of the defeats.
Skills Profile
Dumont
vs
Perez
Stand-Up Striking
+1 Dumont
Against Aldana, Dumont kept landing as Aldana pursued. Perez presents different grappling pressure; height and career rates do not establish who will score.
Grappling
+1 Perez
Perez found entries against Rosa and recovered positions against Chiasson. Dumont can defend and reset; those sequences came against different opponents.
Takedown Defense
Even
Historical defense rates of 72-73% come against different opponents. They are not the chance of defending an entry in this bout.
Knockout Power
Even
Perez’s four KO/TKO wins occurred before the UFC; Dumont has no win by that method. This establishes neither current superiority in power nor impossibility of a stoppage.
Chin and Durability
Even
Loss histories do not measure current physical durability. There is no basis to assign either fighter a chin advantage.
Elite-Level Experience
Even
Dumont and Perez faced Edwards, Chiasson and Rosa under different circumstances. Shared results are not a transitive comparison.
The preference rests on observed entry and reversal sequences, not on a comparison of unmatched career rates or common-opponent arithmetic. Dumont can win exchanges while denying sustained attacking positions; that would overturn the pick.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction6/10Perez must intercept approaches, complete the transition and attack before Dumont exits. The Rosa and Chiasson sequences support this decision route, with uncertain transfer between opponents. Dumont can reverse the result through clean combinations and effective separation.
Perez must intercept approaches, complete the transition and attack before Dumont exits. The Rosa and Chiasson sequences support this decision route, with uncertain transfer between opponents. Dumont can reverse the result through clean combinations and effective separation.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Dumont scores cleanly as Perez enters and separates before the next attack.
- 02
Perez completes takedowns but cannot add effective offense before Dumont escapes.
- 03
Dumont wins the striking exchanges without conceding more damaging grappling attacks.
Underdog Path
Dumont meets entries with combinations, changes her exit angle and frees herself from clinches. She can concede an isolated takedown and still win if she limits subsequent offense and produces the more effective attacks.
Required Conditions
- Make Perez restart entries rather than chain attacks.
- Turn separations into effective striking, not only empty movement.
- Limit damage and submission threats when grounded.
— Precedent: Against Aldana at UFC 306, Dumont started with active, sharp striking and continued landing as Aldana pressed later. This supports an offensive response; it does not establish that Perez will fail to wrestle.
Verdict
Winner
Ailin Perez
Method
Unanimous Decision
Most likely winner
Ailin Perez wins
Perez must intercept approaches, complete the transition and attack before Dumont exits. The Rosa and Chiasson sequences support this decision route, with uncertain transfer between opponents. Dumont can reverse the result through clean combinations and effective separation.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Norma "The Immortal" Dumont vs Ailin "Fiona" Perez | UFC Vegas 121: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos | September 26, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, United States
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