July 25, 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Dulatov
12-1-0
UnrankedRussia / based in Düsseldorf | 27 years old
Turman
18-8-0
UnrankedCuritiba, Brazil | 30 years old
Showcase or Trap Fight
Twelve wins, twelve finishes, eleven in round one. The UFC built the stage for its Düsseldorf project to become a star. Nobody told the Brazilian veteran across the cage that he's supposed to just fall over.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
The Upset Has to Survive Round One
Islam Dulatov has won 12 fights and finished all 12 — eleven of them in the first round. His average night at the office lasts 3 minutes and 25 seconds, and he's scoring 4.39 knockdowns per 15 minutes. The UFC knows exactly what it has: the Düsseldorf prospect headlined this week's official Fighters on the Rise feature, and the market opened him. Runway model outside the cage, wrecking machine inside it. Across the Octagon stands precisely the profile that shouldn't survive that kind of start. Turman absorbs 4.17 significant strikes per minute behind 45% striking defense, and both times he shared a cage with a legitimate puncher (Andrew Sanchez in 2020, Bruno Silva in 2021), he got knocked out before the first round ended. He returns off a 2.5-year injury layoff, turned 30 three days before this fight, has dropped three straight, and is still winless at welterweight in the UFC. The honest caveat: all 12 of Dulatov's finishes came against the European regional circuit, a Contender Series contract fight, and an Adam Fugitt on his way off the roster — and the Russian carries a full year of inactivity himself. If this fight gets past the first five minutes, it enters territory Dulatov has literally never visited: he has never fought a third round in his life. That's the crack Turman's jiu-jitsu, 8 submissions in 18 wins, would have to slip through.
Islam Dulatov has won 12 fights and finished all 12 — eleven of them in the first round. His average night at the office lasts 3 minutes and 25 seconds, and he's scoring 4.39 knockdowns per 15 minutes. The UFC knows exactly what it has: the Düsseldorf prospect headlined this week's official Fighters on the Rise feature, and the market opened him. Runway model outside the cage, wrecking machine inside it. Across the Octagon stands precisely the profile that shouldn't survive that kind of start. Turman absorbs 4.17 significant strikes per minute behind 45% striking defense, and both times he shared a cage with a legitimate puncher (Andrew Sanchez in 2020, Bruno Silva in 2021), he got knocked out before the first round ended. He returns off a 2.5-year injury layoff, turned 30 three days before this fight, has dropped three straight, and is still winless at welterweight in the UFC. The honest caveat: all 12 of Dulatov's finishes came against the European regional circuit, a Contender Series contract fight, and an Adam Fugitt on his way off the roster — and the Russian carries a full year of inactivity himself. If this fight gets past the first five minutes, it enters territory Dulatov has literally never visited: he has never fought a third round in his life. That's the crack Turman's jiu-jitsu, 8 submissions in 18 wins, would have to slip through.
Truth A
Dulatov has never needed a round 3 and built everything against regional-level opposition. A year on the shelf, against a UFC veteran with twice his fight count, is the classic prospect trap-fight script.
Truth B
Turman is the wrong underdog to collect that toll: 45% striking defense, knocked out in round one by the only two punchers he's faced, an 8% takedown success rate, and 2.5 years of rust of his own.
Tale of the Tape
Turman turned 30 three days before the fight; Dulatov turns 28 a week after it
A 3-inch reach edge for the Russian
All the UFC experience belongs to the Brazilian. The winning percentage does not
Current Form
Islam Dulatov
UFC debut at UFC 318 in New Orleans. Hurt the American on the feet and finished him with ground strikes at 4:06 of round 1. Performance of the Night.
KO R1Contender Series. Flattened Antunes with a vicious elbow at 2:44 of round 1 and walked out with a UFC contract.
KO R1Oktagon 53. A knee to the body ended it with one second left in the opening round.
KO R1Guillotine in 31 seconds over a veteran with more than 60 pro fights.
Sub R1Arm-triangle in 48 seconds on the Austrian circuit. Another short shift.
Sub R1Twelve straight wins, twelve finishes, and a UFC debut capped with a Performance of the Night bonus for erasing Adam Fugitt inside a round. The UFC slotted him into this week's Fighters on the Rise feature and the market treats him as a massive favorite. The caveat is the calendar: a full year on the shelf since UFC 318, after injuries had already delayed his debut once. The talent is obvious. The activity rate is not.
Wellington Turman
Caught in a rear-naked choke at 1:11 of round 2. Second fight at welterweight, second loss, and the injury layoff that followed kept him out for 2.5 years.
Sub R2Welterweight debut against the rangy veteran. Outstruck over all three rounds.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 281 at Madison Square Garden. Controlled by the American's wrestling on the cards.
Unanimous DecisionThe best win of his career: submitted the Canadian veteran at 1:29 of round 2.
Sub R2Edged the veteran in a tight split decision in Las Vegas.
Split DecisionThe picture is rough: three straight losses, submitted by unranked Jared Gooden in his last outing, 0-2 since dropping to welterweight, and 2.5 years out of the cage with injury. He turned 30 three days before this fight. The upside is real but thin: the body got a full reset, he trains at Glover Teixeira's Teixeira MMA & Fitness in Connecticut, and his jiu-jitsu — 8 career submissions — travels well into any fight. It's not much for a mission this size.
Level of Competition
No common opponents, and the strength-of-schedule contrast runs backwards — it's the honest caveat of this whole analysis. Turman built his 18-8 trading leather with UFC-level fighters (Randy Brown, Petroski, Cirkunov, Gooden), while Dulatov's 12 finishes came against the European regional circuit, a Contender Series contract fight, and an Adam Fugitt at the end of his roster run. The Russian's step up in class is real and hasn't been taxed yet. Turman's problem is that his defensive numbers suggest he's in no position to be the tax collector.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Dulatov's sample: 7 minutes of cage time across 2 fights (Contender Series and UFC 318). The volume is real, the sample size is not
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Both men are hittable. The difference is what comes back the other way
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Turman needs the takedown and converts just 8% of his UFC attempts
Defesa de Takedown (%)
The solid data point is Turman's 43% takedown defense. Dulatov's 100% comes from a tiny sample
Submissões por 15 Min
The only stat where Turman leads comfortably
Dulatov leads in 5 categories · Turman leads in 2
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The method read is the most lopsided on the card. Dulatov has finished 100% of his wins (7 knockouts, 5 submissions), eleven of twelve inside the first round, and has never heard a scorecard read in his favor because he's never needed one. Turman is the opposite: a patient grappler whose jiu-jitsu accounts for 8 of 18 wins, with a third of his victories going the distance. If Dulatov wins, this fight almost by definition never sees the final bell. If Turman wins, the likeliest route is a submission on the mat or a full 15 minutes.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Turman loses one of two ways: on the cards (5 of 8 losses, including the decisions against Randy Brown and Petroski) or far too early — knocked out in round one by Andrew Sanchez and Bruno Silva, the only two genuine punchers he's faced in the UFC. That second pattern is exactly the one this matchup activates. Dulatov's lone loss is a unanimous decision in his 2019 pro debut against Gjoni Palokaj: a one-fight sample, no claimable vulnerability pattern, yet it remains the only existing blueprint — drag Dulatov into deep water and make him fight for 15 minutes.
Skills Profile
Dulatov
vs
Turman
Striking em Distância
+4 Dulatov
A 6'3" frame with a 75-inch reach landing 8.78 strikes per minute against 45% defense. At range this is a one-way fight.
Striking em Curta Distância
+3 Dulatov
Dulatov's finishes are born at close quarters: the elbow on Antunes, the knee to the body on Palaiologos, the ground strikes on Fugitt.
Poder de Nocaute
+5 Dulatov
Seven KOs and 4.39 knockdowns per 15 minutes against a Turman who has averaged 0.00 knockdowns across 9 UFC fights. The widest gap in the fight.
Defesa de Striking
+1 Dulatov
Neither man is a vault: 4.24 against 4.17 strikes absorbed per minute. The difference is only one of them has ever been knocked out — and it isn't the Russian.
Grappling e Clinch
+2 Turman
Turman's jiu-jitsu (8 submissions, Cirkunov in R2) is his one real edge. Getting there on an 8% takedown success rate is the problem.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+2 Turman
Turman has gone 15 hard minutes plenty of times. Dulatov has never seen a round 3 and averages 3:25 per fight.
This isn't a matchup of comparable skill sets — it's a race against the clock. The earlier the fight catches fire, the more it belongs to Dulatov. The longer it lasts and the lower it goes, the more it belongs to Turman. The Brazilian's dilemma is that the tools for stretching a fight out — solid defense and a reliable takedown — are exactly the ones he doesn't have.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Islam Dulatov wins because Turman's defensive profile is the worst possible answer to an explosive first round (45% striking defense, 4.17 strikes absorbed per minute, and first-round KO losses to Andrew Sanchez and Bruno Silva, per UFCStats and ESPN's fight log), because the Brazilian's escape route barely exists (an 8% takedown success rate in the UFC against a 6'3" fighter whose takedown defense has yet to be cracked), and because the momentum of both men points the same direction (twelve straight finishes and a debut bonus against three straight losses, a 2.5-year injury layoff and a 30th birthday three days out, with the UFC itself positioning this as a showcase in its Fighters on the Rise feature).
The thesis is: Islam Dulatov wins because Turman's defensive profile is the worst possible answer to an explosive first round (45% striking defense, 4.17 strikes absorbed per minute, and first-round KO losses to Andrew Sanchez and Bruno Silva, per UFCStats and ESPN's fight log), because the Brazilian's escape route barely exists (an 8% takedown success rate in the UFC against a 6'3" fighter whose takedown defense has yet to be cracked), and because the momentum of both men points the same direction (twelve straight finishes and a debut bonus against three straight losses, a 2.5-year injury layoff and a 30th birthday three days out, with the UFC itself positioning this as a showcase in its Fighters on the Rise feature).
The path is Dulatov using his 3-inch reach edge to unload early, hurting Turman in the first real exchange, and closing by knockout in the first half of the fight. It breaks down if a year of rust dulls the Russian's timing and Turman drags the fight to the mat or into the final round — territory Dulatov has never visited.
Conviction
Conviction 7 because the thesis crosses four independent dimensions (physical, statistical, stylistic, and momentum) and the underdog owns the worst possible toolkit for exploiting the favorite's two genuine question marks. What blocks an 8 is structural and documented: the strength of schedule runs backwards — Turman built his 18-8 against UFC-level opposition while Dulatov's 12 finishes came on the regional circuit — and the Russian has never fought 15 minutes. What sustains the 7 anyway: both of Turman's KO losses came against Sanchez and Bruno Silva, mid-tier punchers, and Dulatov is a bigger physical problem than either of them.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Turman survives the entire first round without a knockdown and pins Dulatov against the fence, the fight changes species and the Russian's explosiveness loses value by the minute.
- 02
If Dulatov misses his early bombs and is breathing heavy late in R1, the de Ridder-over-Nickal script opens up: he has never fought past the second round and averages 3:25 per fight.
- 03
If Turman completes an early takedown, Dulatov's 100% takedown defense becomes what it always was — a tiny sample — and the Brazilian's ground game is the one place the favorite has proven nothing.
- 04
If 12 months of rust show up in Dulatov's timing, remember that fighters who live off first-round blitzes feel a layoff before anyone else.
Underdog Path
Turman weathers the opening blitz without getting dropped, pins the fight to the fence, and turns the back half of R1 into a grinding clinch. From round 2 on, Dulatov's rust and untested gas tank become a real factor: Turman completes a takedown — or snatches the neck on a careless entry — lands on top, and lets his 8-submission jiu-jitsu go to work. The finish line is a mid-fight submission or a decision built on ground control in rounds 2 and 3.
Required Conditions
- Survive the entire first round without getting dropped — something he failed to do against Sanchez and against Bruno Silva
- Close the distance and drag the fight into a fence clinch, erasing the Russian's 3-inch reach edge
- Complete at least one early takedown, which an 8% UFC success rate makes rare
- Force Dulatov to fight rounds 2 and 3 and burn a gas tank he has never had to use as a pro
— Precedent: Reinier de Ridder vs Bo Nickal (May 2025): an unbeaten, heavily hyped favorite full of quick finishes against weak opposition got dragged into deep water by a veteran and was stopped by TKO in R2. The honest caveat: de Ridder was a former two-division ONE champion — a far higher calibre of underdog than today's Turman.
Verdict
Winner
Islam Dulatov
Method
KO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Dulatov (parlay anchor only)
At the market has already charged for the whole show in advance. On its own, the line doesn't pay for the risk of a year of rust. Worth it strictly as a parlay anchor. Breaks if the Russian's timing comes back late from the layoff.
- 02
Método
Dulatov by KO/TKO
Dulatov by knockout because 7 of his 12 finishes came by strikes, Turman defends only 45% of what comes at him, and he was KO'd in R1 by Sanchez and Bruno Silva — smaller punchers than the Russian. The market pays better than the moneyline for the same thesis. Breaks if Turman turns this into a clinch-and-mat fight early.
- 03
Como termina (qualquer lutador)
Fight doesn't reach the scorecards
Dulatov has finished 12 of 12 and Turman finishes 44% of his own wins: the two likeliest victory paths in this fight both end before the final bell. It's also the honest hedge for anyone who respects the submission-upset scenario. Breaks if both men come back rusty and the fight turns tactical.
Most Likely Outcome
Dulatov by KO/TKO
Carries the entire thesis of the analysis without paying the toll or the round-1 impatience tax. The conviction 7 comes from four dimensions pointing the same way, but the inverted strength of schedule and the Russian's untested gas tank say keep the stake moderate.
Stats That Matter
12/12
of Dulatov's wins by finish, eleven of them in the first round
He has never fought a round 3 in his life
45%
striking defense for Turman, absorbing 4.17 strikes per minute
KO'd in R1 by the only two punchers he's faced in the UFC
2.5 years
on the shelf for Turman since the Jared Gooden loss, due to injury
Returns at 30, on a three-fight skid, still winless at welterweight
The Trap
Dulatov in round 1
The market will anchor on eleven first-round finishes and charge a fortune for Dulatov in R1. The trap is in the price, not the thesis: he's coming off a year on the shelf, and ring rust taxes the timing of blitz fighters first. And when Turman isn't ambushed early, he's hard to put away — 5 of his 8 losses went the distance. Dulatov by knockout, with no round attached, carries the same thesis without paying the toll for impatience.
The market will anchor on eleven first-round finishes and charge a fortune for Dulatov in R1. The trap is in the price, not the thesis: he's coming off a year on the shelf, and ring rust taxes the timing of blitz fighters first. And when Turman isn't ambushed early, he's hard to put away — 5 of his 8 losses went the distance. Dulatov by knockout, with no round attached, carries the same thesis without paying the toll for impatience.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Islam "The Ripper" Dulatov vs Wellington "The Prodigy" Turman | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | July 25, 2026 | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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