July 18, 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
du Plessis
23-3-0
#2 MiddleweightPretoria, South Africa | 32 years old
Usman
21-4-0
Former Welterweight ChampionAuchi, Nigeria / Denver, USA | 39 years old
The Engine Against the Clock
Two former champions collide in Oklahoma City. Usman's elite wrestling targets DDP's one flaw, his takedown defense. But at 39, holding down a bigger middleweight for five rounds is the question that decides the night.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
35% Takedown Defense Against a Generational Grinder
The number that hangs over everything is 35%. That's Dricus du Plessis's career takedown defense, and it just got exposed in the ugliest way: Khamzat Chimaev put him down 12 times and controlled him for 21 of 25 minutes at UFC 319. Now he draws Kamaru Usman, arguably the most accomplished wrestler-grinder of his era, a man who at 38 gave power-puncher Joaquin Buckley a 25-minute lesson in top control. On paper, Usman's single best weapon points straight at DDP's single biggest hole. That's why this "huge favorite" spot is a trap for anyone expecting a routine night. But the counter is just as real, and it's why DDP is favored for good reason. Usman is 39. Holding a bigger, relentless, submission-savvy middleweight down for 25 minutes is a very different task than out-wrestling a welterweight, and even against Buckley he faded enough in the fifth to get tagged. DDP never fades. He throws one of the highest paces in middleweight history (5.18 significant strikes a minute), he's never been finished in the UFC, and he has 11 career submissions, including the choke that put Israel Adesanya to sleep. If Usman's takedowns don't stick, or if he can't hold them, DDP drowns the veteran in volume and size over the championship rounds. The whole fight is one question: can a 39-year-old wrestle for 25 minutes against a bigger man who won't break?
Tale of the Tape
DDP is 7 years younger with far less mileage
DDP is an inch taller and the bigger frame in the division
Identical reach, but DDP is a native middleweight and Usman is moving up
Two former champions, but DDP is a native middleweight and Usman is a welterweight moving up to stay
Current Form
Dricus du Plessis
UFC 319, Chicago. Lost the title in a wrestling mauling from Chimaev, who landed 12 takedowns and controlled for 21 of 25 minutes. It was DDP's first UFC loss and exposed the 35% takedown defense. Even dominated, he was never finished across five rounds.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 312, Sydney. Second win over Strickland, this time a clearer unanimous nod. A solid title defense, volume and pressure outworking the challenger on the cards.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 305, Perth. Locked in a rear-naked choke in the fourth and became the first man to finish Adesanya. Showed real submission chops off a scramble, a brilliant title defense.
Submission R4UFC 297, Toronto. Beat champion Strickland by split decision to claim the vacant middleweight title. A brutal five-round war, DDP weathered the pressure and banked it on the cards.
Split DecisionUFC 290, Las Vegas. Stopped former champ Robert Whittaker by TKO in the second and cemented a title shot. Relentless power and volume dismantling one of the division's best.
TKO R2The only blemish is the last result. DDP was riding a perfect championship run, beating Strickland twice, Whittaker, and submitting Adesanya, until Chimaev ran him over in August 2025, 12 takedowns and 21 of 25 minutes of control. It was his first UFC loss and it laid the hole bare: 35% takedown defense. But outside of that he's 9-1 in the promotion, 32 years old, in his physical prime, with one of the most relentless engines in the division. He comes back to prove Chimaev was the exception, not the rule.
Kamaru Usman
UFC Atlanta. Returned after nearly two years off and gave the dangerous Buckley a wrestling clinic: a takedown a round through the first four, nearly 13 minutes of control, 137-51 in total strikes. Unanimous decision and Fight of the Night. But Buckley found punches in the fifth, when the pace dipped.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 294, Abu Dhabi. Moved up to middleweight on 10 days' notice to face an undefeated Chimaev and lost a razor-thin majority decision many thought he won. Proof he can hang with an elite wrestler even off weight and without a camp.
Majority DecisionUFC 286, London. Third fight with Edwards, for the welterweight title. Lost a brutal majority decision in hostile territory. A close fight that could have gone either way.
Majority DecisionUFC 278, Salt Lake City. He was winning when Edwards landed a perfect head kick with under a minute left in the fifth and knocked him out cold. The only time he's ever been knocked out, and the end of the welterweight reign.
KO R5UFC 268, New York. Rematch with Covington in a five-round war, unanimous decision. A champion's title defense, wrestling and boxing controlling the rival to the finish.
Unanimous DecisionUsman is a resilience story. He lost the welterweight title to an Edwards head kick, dropped the rematch on the cards, and fell to Chimaev at middleweight on 10 days' notice, all between 2022 and 2023. Then he vanished for nearly two years. He came back in June 2025 and gave Buckley a wrestling clinic, nearly 13 minutes of control. At 39, he moves up to middleweight for good. The championship engine is still there, the question is the mileage and the age in a five-round fight against a bigger man.
Level of Competition
The common thread is Khamzat Chimaev, and it cuts in a fascinating direction. DDP got mauled by Chimaev for 25 minutes (12 takedowns, over 21 minutes of control, a one-sided shutout). Usman, stepping in on 10 days' notice at middleweight, took Chimaev to a razor-thin majority decision plenty of people scored for him. Against the division's best wrestler, the natural wrestler (Usman) hung tough; the non-wrestler (DDP) had no answer. Against each other, Usman is the Chimaev in this matchup, the grappler, and DDP is the one who has to solve 35% takedown defense. Both men own elite resumes (DDP: Adesanya, Strickland twice, Whittaker; Usman: Woodley, Covington twice, Masvidal twice, Burns, Buckley), so this isn't a resume gap. It's a collision of style and age.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
DDP throws one of the highest paces in middleweight history. Usman is more economical and surgical with the Wittman jab
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Accuracy is a wash. Usman lands a touch cleaner, DDP makes up for it in volume
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Usman is far harder to hit. Defense and wrestling dictate the pace and keep him out of harm's way
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
Usman shoots more often and with more intent. It's the heart of his plan
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
THE number of the fight. DDP at 35% is the hole, Usman at 90% is nearly a wall. One man will impose the wrestling, the other has to survive it
Submissões por 15 Min
DDP is the real submission threat (11 career). Usman controls up top but almost never goes for the submission, grinding the position instead
du Plessis leads in 3 categories · Usman leads in 5
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Two different kinds of finisher. DDP ends 20 of his 23 wins by KO or submission, a finishing machine with a real submission threat (11 career, including the choke on Adesanya). Usman hides real power in his boxing: 9 of 21 wins by KO or TKO (43%), including the knockout of Masvidal and the stoppages of Covington and Burns. But 11 of 21 came on the cards, he's one of the great control fighters ever, and at 39, moving up in weight against a bigger DDP who's never been finished, the natural path is to grind on the wrestling, not hunt the one-shot finish. It matters for the method: DDP hunts the finish, Usman tends to hunt the scorecards. This fight lives at exactly that collision.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men are extraordinarily hard to finish, and that's the strongest structural argument in the fight. DDP's only two stoppage losses came in 2014 (a McLellan guillotine) and 2018 (a Soldic TKO), before the UFC. At the elite level he's never been stopped, eating a 25-minute Chimaev mauling without folding. Usman has been finished exactly once in 25 pro fights, a perfect Edwards head kick, and has never been submitted on the mat (his one submission loss was a raw 2013 prospect). Translation: don't expect a clean, early finish from either side. Whoever wins likely has to earn it on the cards. Small samples (3 and 4 losses), so read the direction, not the precision.
Skills Profile
du Plessis
vs
Usman
Wrestling e Quedas
+3 Usman
The single biggest edge in the fight. Usman is an elite wrestler, 90% takedown defense, fresh off a top-control clinic on Buckley. DDP sits at 35% defense and Chimaev took him down 12 times.
Jogo por Cima
+2 Usman
Usman controls up top as well as anyone in history, ground-and-pound and nearly 13 minutes of control on Buckley. But DDP is dangerous off his back, he submitted Adesanya off a scramble.
Ameaça de Finalização
+3 du Plessis
DDP has 11 submissions and hunts the finish (20 of 23 wins by KO or submission). Usman controls, but has just 1 career submission and 0.09 attempts per 15 minutes.
Volume e Pressão
+2 du Plessis
DDP imposes constant volume and pressure, one of the highest paces at middleweight. Usman has a technical jab and boxing, but produces less and prefers the grind to the firefight.
Cardio e Motor (5 rounds)
+2 du Plessis
DDP's engine is relentless and he never fades. Usman has a champion's gas tank, but he's 39 and faded in the fifth against Buckley. Holding a bigger man down for 25 minutes at 39 is another story.
Experiência e Pedigree
Even
Basically a wash. Two former champions, five-round wars, elite fight IQ on both sides. Usman has more title-fight mileage, DDP is in his physical prime coming off a dominant reign.
The fight map is simple to state and hard to execute. Usman needs to take it down and keep it there, the single best weapon in the cage against DDP's biggest hole. DDP needs to defend enough, get up fast, and turn it into a test of engine and volume that no 39-year-old wins easily against a bigger middleweight. The edge is DDP's, but Usman is the most live underdog on the card.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Dricus du Plessis wins, but not the way the public expects. He's the bigger man, the younger man (32 to 39), a native middleweight, with one of the most relentless engines in the division (5.18 significant strikes a minute) and a real submission threat, 11 on his record, including the choke on Adesanya. Usman has a concrete, fresh path: the wrestling. DDP's takedown defense is 35%, and Chimaev just landed 12 takedowns on him. But holding a bigger man who escapes and submits down for 25 minutes, at 39, is a much harder task than out-wrestling Buckley, and even there Usman faded and got tagged in the fifth. DDP's path is to survive the early takedowns, get up, and drown the veteran in volume and size as the rounds pile up, banking a decision. It breaks down if Usman's takedowns stick and he controls the way he did against Buckley, in which case the whole read flips to the underdog.
The thesis is: Dricus du Plessis wins, but not the way the public expects. He's the bigger man, the younger man (32 to 39), a native middleweight, with one of the most relentless engines in the division (5.18 significant strikes a minute) and a real submission threat, 11 on his record, including the choke on Adesanya. Usman has a concrete, fresh path: the wrestling. DDP's takedown defense is 35%, and Chimaev just landed 12 takedowns on him. But holding a bigger man who escapes and submits down for 25 minutes, at 39, is a much harder task than out-wrestling Buckley, and even there Usman faded and got tagged in the fifth. DDP's path is to survive the early takedowns, get up, and drown the veteran in volume and size as the rounds pile up, banking a decision. It breaks down if Usman's takedowns stick and he controls the way he did against Buckley, in which case the whole read flips to the underdog.
Conviction
Conviction 6. The thesis is genuinely multi-layered: age and engine (Usman at 39 having to hold a bigger man for 25 minutes), size (DDP a native middleweight, Usman moving up), volume (one of the division's highest paces) and durability (DDP never finished in the UFC, Usman finished once in 25 fights, which points to a decision). This isn't a market read: the books have DDP around 75%, I have him at 64%, meaning I give Usman MORE credit than the line, because the wrestling path is concrete, fresh and precedented (Chimaev did it 11 months ago, Usman did it to Buckley). What keeps the lean on DDP and doesn't invert it is the combination of age, size and the fact that pinning a middleweight who escapes (he submitted Adesanya) and never tires for 25 minutes is far harder than dominating Buckley. I don't go to 7 because the underdog path is real and documented. I don't drop to 5 because the defense against that path (age, size, volume) is equally concrete and multi-dimensional, not just stats plus odds.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Usman's takedowns stick and he controls up top the way he did against Buckley, the fight becomes a wrestling decision and the whole prediction flips to the underdog.
- 02
If DDP can't get up, Chimaev proved you can pin him, and he loses rounds even while fresh and bigger.
- 03
If Usman's cardio does NOT fade in the championship rounds and he keeps the takedown pressure into rounds 4 and 5, the pillar about the veteran wearing down collapses.
- 04
Method: if Usman truly empties out late, DDP has 20 finishes and could close by late TKO or catch a scramble submission, which breaks the decision call even if the winner is right.
Underdog Path
Usman doesn't need to reinvent anything, he needs his wrestling. He walks DDP to the fence, hits the takedown against 35% defense, and does what he's done his whole career: control up top, ground-and-pound, and steal the rounds on the cards. It was Chimaev's script 11 months ago and it's what Usman himself did to Buckley in June. If the takedowns stick and the gas tank holds, the underdog walks out with a wrestling decision.
Required Conditions
- Land takedowns early and often, attacking DDP's 35% takedown defense
- Hold the top position without getting reversed or caught in a submission, DDP finished Adesanya off a scramble
- Sustain the wrestling pace into rounds 4 and 5, at 39, against a man who never tires
- Don't stand and trade volume, where DDP has one of the division's highest paces and wins the math
— Precedent: Chimaev vs du Plessis (UFC 319, August 2025): a wrestler landed 12 takedowns and controlled DDP for 21 of 25 minutes in a shutout. And Usman himself gave Buckley a similar clinic in June 2025, nearly 13 minutes of control. The blueprint exists and it's recent. The difference is age: Chimaev is 31 and a physical monster, Usman is 39 and moving up.
Verdict
Winner
Dricus du Plessis
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Dricus du Plessis
DDP because he's bigger, younger, a native middleweight, has volume to spare, and a 39-year-old would need a perfect 25 minutes of wrestling to beat him. But I have him at 64%, below the line's ~75%, so it's a moderate-stake lean, not a fat bet. Breaks if Usman's takedowns stick and he controls up top.
- 02
How it ends (either fighter)
Fight goes to decision
Both men are nearly impossible to finish: DDP has never been stopped in the UFC, Usman has been finished once in 25 fights. Add Usman's wrestling, which drags the fight into a grind, and a decision becomes the likeliest result on either side. The market pays because both men finish plenty, but it ignores their durability. Approximate consensus price.
- 03
Underdog
Kamaru Usman
At (implied ~29%) Usman is genuine value for a man I have at 34%, with a concrete, fresh, precedented wrestling path. It's not the main read, it's conscious value on the dog the public is fading over his age. Breaks if he can't sustain the takedowns in the championship rounds.
Most Likely Outcome
Dricus du Plessis by decision, moderate stake
In a conviction-6 fight, the soundest read isn't just the winner, it's the shape: both men are nearly unfinishable, DDP tends to bank the rounds on volume and size, and the decision is where his edge actually shows up. Moderate stake because Usman's wrestling keeps the upset alive the whole way. It pays better than the straight moneyline because the public wants the knockout.
Stats That Matter
35%
DDP's career takedown defense. It's the hole Usman's entire game targets
Chimaev just landed 12 takedowns exploiting exactly this
12
takedowns Chimaev landed on DDP at UFC 319, with 21 of 25 minutes of control
The blueprint for beating DDP exists and is only 11 months old
39
Usman's age. Grinding a bigger middleweight for five rounds at 39 is the question of the night
Even against Buckley he got tagged in the fifth when the pace dropped
The Trap
DDP by easy knockout
The public sees favorite who finishes (20 of 23 wins by KO or submission) and pictures a quick highlight. The trap is the target. Usman has been finished ONCE in 25 pro fights, a perfect Edwards head kick, and has never been finished on the mat. He has a champion's chin and elite defense. Betting DDP inside the distance overrates the finish and underrates the way Usman's wrestling can turn this into a long, contested decision. This is a decision-shaped fight, and Usman is a live underdog, not a punching bag.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Dricus "Stillknocks" du Plessis vs Kamaru "The Nigerian Nightmare" Usman | UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs Usman | July 18, 2026 | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA