October 3, 2026 · Delta Center, Salt Lake City, United States
dos Anjos
32-17-0
UnrankedBrazil | 41 years old | Former UFC lightweight champion
Hernandez
18-9-0
UnrankedSt. Louis, USA | 34 years old
The Former Champ's Comeback
Nearly two years out, three knee surgeries and the 50th fight of his career. Across the cage is a fighter roughly eight years younger who fought as recently as April and owns the right hand that dropped Hooper and Ferreira.
Conviction
Conviction 4 because the edge rests on a premise nobody can measure before fight night: how much RDA lost to 23 months out, three surgeries and 41 years. Flip that premise and the pick flips with it. Both theses rest on real observations: pressure and takedowns beat Hernandez in April and RDA has the career wrestling to try it, while Hernandez's right hand dropped two opponents in 2025, one of them after a first round in which Ferreira kept pressing. The 57% figure is an editorial estimate, not a calibrated one.
Conviction 4 because the edge rests on a premise nobody can measure before fight night: how much RDA lost to 23 months out, three surgeries and 41 years. Flip that premise and the pick flips with it. Both theses rest on real observations: pressure and takedowns beat Hernandez in April and RDA has the career wrestling to try it, while Hernandez's right hand dropped two opponents in 2025, one of them after a first round in which Ferreira kept pressing. The 57% figure is an editorial estimate, not a calibrated one.
THE DECIDING FACTOR
The Garcia Game Plan on RDA's Legs
Hernandez's last loss left a clear roadmap. Rafa Garcia walked him down, countered him on the way in and mixed in takedowns. Hernandez popped up from both first-round takedowns, but he lost on all three cards. RDA has the tools to chase something similar through his wrestling: a career 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes, 11 submission wins, and four takedowns on six attempts in his last win, over Barberena. On paper, the mat favors him. The problem is everything that has to go right for that plan to exist. Closing distance and changing levels run on legs. RDA hasn't fought since his left knee gave out against Neal, and he's had three surgeries since. There's been no competitive test, and that's uncertainty, not proof he's compromised. Hernandez's range game does have some documented evidence behind it, from written fight reports: in round 1 against Ferreira, he circled and countered while Ferreira came forward, with no knockdown. Against Hooper, a counter right off the jab put him down. The Ferreira knockdown was a separate moment, in round 2, after an accidental eye poke. That's a sign that pressuring Hernandez costs something, not proof that every entry gets punished, and the only recent opponent documented as pressing him start to finish, Garcia, won. If RDA closes the distance safely and gets to the clinch, his experience, top game and submission threat take over. If he comes in on a straight line or without his old burst, the fight stays at Hernandez's range, where reach and the right hand carry the weight.
Hernandez's last loss left a clear roadmap. Rafa Garcia walked him down, countered him on the way in and mixed in takedowns. Hernandez popped up from both first-round takedowns, but he lost on all three cards. RDA has the tools to chase something similar through his wrestling: a career 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes, 11 submission wins, and four takedowns on six attempts in his last win, over Barberena. On paper, the mat favors him. The problem is everything that has to go right for that plan to exist. Closing distance and changing levels run on legs. RDA hasn't fought since his left knee gave out against Neal, and he's had three surgeries since. There's been no competitive test, and that's uncertainty, not proof he's compromised. Hernandez's range game does have some documented evidence behind it, from written fight reports: in round 1 against Ferreira, he circled and countered while Ferreira came forward, with no knockdown. Against Hooper, a counter right off the jab put him down. The Ferreira knockdown was a separate moment, in round 2, after an accidental eye poke. That's a sign that pressuring Hernandez costs something, not proof that every entry gets punished, and the only recent opponent documented as pressing him start to finish, Garcia, won. If RDA closes the distance safely and gets to the clinch, his experience, top game and submission threat take over. If he comes in on a straight line or without his old burst, the fight stays at Hernandez's range, where reach and the right hand carry the weight.
Truth A
The game plan that beat Hernandez in April was built on pressure and takedowns, and RDA owns a career 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has 11 submission wins and only three losses by strikes in 49 fights.
Truth B
RDA is 41, nearly two years removed from his last fight, three knee surgeries deep and has lost four of his last five. Hernandez is active, has two inches of extra reach and a well-timed right hand that dropped two opponents in 2025.
Tale of the Tape
Roughly an eight-year gap by date of birth, as of fight night
Hernandez is an inch taller
Two-inch reach edge for Hernandez
Southpaw vs. orthodox
About 23 months vs. a little over five
Current Form
Rafael dos Anjos
UFC 308, at welterweight. Hurt his left knee 90 seconds in and the fight was waved off. Not a knockout by strikes.
TKO R1 (knee injury)UFC 299, at lightweight. Hurt Gamrot in round 1 and was credited with a knockdown, but Gamrot answered with repeated takedowns and top control the rest of the way. 29-28, 29-28, 30-27.
Unanimous DecisionFive-round welterweight main event. It turned into a grinding wrestling match, and Luque took it 49-46, 48-47, 48-47. RDA landed 2 of 7 takedowns.
Unanimous DecisionWelterweight. Four takedowns on six attempts and a submission at 3:20 of round 2.
Submission R2Five-round lightweight main event. Knocked out 18 seconds into round 5.
KO R5Three straight losses and one win in his last five. The most recent wasn't a strikes stoppage: his left knee gave out 1:30 into round 1 against Neal in October 2024. Three surgeries followed, the last in early 2026, according to RDA himself. He admits retirement crossed his mind, but says he wants to fight a couple more times and that he wasn't dominated in his recent losses. That's the fighter talking, not a test. He comes in roughly 23 months removed from his last fight.
Alexander Hernandez
UFC Vegas 116. Garcia marched forward, landed counters and took him down in rounds 1 and 3. Hernandez popped up from both first-round takedowns and chased the finish in round 3, without luck.
Unanimous DecisionNoche UFC. Circled and countered while Ferreira came forward in round 1. Dropped him with a right hand in round 2 and finished with ground-and-pound at 3:46.
KO R2UFC 319. Mostly on the feet, and Hooper tried a takedown that went nowhere. A counter right off Hooper's jab put him down, and the ref stepped in with two seconds left in round 1.
TKO R1Swept the cards and leaned on his wrestling: 4 takedowns on 5 attempts.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 307. A tight one on a split decision.
Split DecisionFour straight wins from October 2024 to September 2025, two of them knockouts set up by the right hand against Hooper and Ferreira. The run ended in April: Rafa Garcia walked him down, countered him on the way in and mixed in takedowns for a 29-28, 29-28, 30-27 decision. He's back on a little over five months' rest, with no reported replacement.
Level of Competition
Two common opponents. Donald Cerrone: RDA beat him twice (a decision in 2013, a first-round knockout in 2015), while Cerrone stopped Hernandez in round 2 in 2019. Renato Moicano: RDA beat him over five rounds in March 2022, three weeks after Moicano submitted Hernandez in round 2. Those fights come from other years and other phases of both careers, and none of them proves anything about this matchup. The RDA who won them wasn't 41 and wasn't coming off two years on the shelf.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
UFC career averages. RDA's cover 36 fights from 2008 to 2024, at lightweight and welterweight. Context, not a read on current form.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Hernandez throws more and eats more: 85% of his significant strikes land standing, outside the clinch.
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns Landed per 15 Min
Career average. RDA didn't shoot in his last two fights: 0 of 0 over 15 minutes against Gamrot, who took him down repeatedly before the knee injury, and none in 1:30 against Neal. That says nothing about his post-surgery wrestling, which is still an unknown.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Sample size: Hernandez: 37
Hernandez: 13 of 37 per UFCStats. UFC.com's counters for both men don't match their own averages and weren't used; RDA has no audited denominator.
Takedown Defense (%)
Garcia still got Hernandez down in rounds 1 and 3 in April, career 69% notwithstanding.
Submission Attempts per 15 Min
Counts attempts, not finishes. RDA has 11 career submission wins; Hernandez has two, both before the UFC.
Knockdowns per 15 Min
Hernandez dropped both Hooper and Ferreira in 2025. RDA was credited with a knockdown against Gamrot.
dos Anjos leads in 4 categories · Hernandez leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Half of RDA's wins came on the cards, and his 11 submissions tell a big part of the story, the most recent against Barberena in 2022. Hernandez splits evenly between knockouts and decisions, eight apiece, and both of his submission wins came before the UFC. That describes styles, not the method of this fight.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Of RDA's 17 losses, 12 went to the scorecards. Of his five KO/TKO losses, two were injuries (jaw against Guida in 2010, knee against Neal in 2024) and only three came from strikes, the last against Fiziev in 2022. Some databases list the 2010 stoppage as a submission; we follow Sherdog's classification. Beyond that, he has never lost to a choke or a joint lock. Hernandez has nine losses: five decisions, three knockouts (Cerrone, Dober and Quarantillo) and one submission (Moicano). RDA's history says he's hard to stop, but it can't measure what 41 years and two years on the shelf have done.
Skills Profile
dos Anjos
vs
Hernandez
Counterpunching and Range
+2 Hernandez
Hernandez has two inches of extra reach and a well-timed right hand. He dropped Hooper with it on a counter off the jab and dropped Ferreira in round 2. Among his recent bouts with written reports, only round 1 against Ferreira shows Hernandez countering effectively under pressure: he circled and countered while Ferreira pressed. In April, Garcia's pressure beat him.
Knockout Threat
+1 Hernandez
Hernandez averages 0.48 knockdowns per 15 minutes to RDA's 0.20 and put two opponents down in 2025. RDA carries danger too: he hurt Gamrot in round 1 in 2024 and was credited with a knockdown, while Hernandez absorbs 4.45 significant strikes per minute and has been knocked out three times. The question is how much of RDA's burst is left after two years out and three surgeries.
Submission Threat
+2 dos Anjos
11 submission wins and 0.57 attempts per 15 minutes against 0.08. Moicano submitted Hernandez in 2022.
Offensive Wrestling
+1 dos Anjos
The career numbers favor RDA in takedowns per 15. He didn't attempt one in his last two fights, but one lasted 1:30 and the other came before the injury, so where his wrestling stands now is unknown. Hernandez went 4 for 5 against Holobaugh in 2025.
Three-Round Pace
+1 Hernandez
Hernandez is younger, active and went the full 15 in April. RDA has gone five rounds plenty of times, but hasn't finished a full round since March 2024.
Durability
+1 dos Anjos
RDA has just three losses by strikes in 49 fights, the last in 2022. Hernandez has been knocked out three times in the UFC. Edge RDA, with the caveat that age and layoff are untested variables.
On paper, RDA brings the more complete toolkit: takedowns, top game and submissions. Hernandez brings the more recent one: activity, reach and a right hand that dropped two opponents in 2025. The real question is how much of the 2022-2024 version of RDA survived three surgeries on his left knee and nearly two years away from the cage.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction4/10The thesis: Alexander Hernandez wins a decision because his reach and counters, which taxed Ferreira's forward pressure in round 1 and punished Hooper's jab, can make RDA's entries costly, and because RDA returns from 23 months out and three knee surgeries with no competitive test showing his pressure and wrestling are still intact. Decision over knockout is a narrow editorial call. Hernandez's wins split evenly between the two (two and two in his last five, eight and eight for his career), and what tips it toward the cards is RDA losing 12 of 17 times on the scorecards and only three times by strikes in 49 fights. That history predates the injury and doesn't show how he takes a shot now, so a Hernandez knockout sits right behind. It falls apart if RDA pressures and takes him down the way Garcia did in April.
The thesis: Alexander Hernandez wins a decision because his reach and counters, which taxed Ferreira's forward pressure in round 1 and punished Hooper's jab, can make RDA's entries costly, and because RDA returns from 23 months out and three knee surgeries with no competitive test showing his pressure and wrestling are still intact. Decision over knockout is a narrow editorial call. Hernandez's wins split evenly between the two (two and two in his last five, eight and eight for his career), and what tips it toward the cards is RDA losing 12 of 17 times on the scorecards and only three times by strikes in 49 fights. That history predates the injury and doesn't show how he takes a shot now, so a Hernandez knockout sits right behind. It falls apart if RDA pressures and takes him down the way Garcia did in April.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If RDA pressures and kicks with real burst in round 1, the premise that the layoff is costing him loses weight.
- 02
If RDA lands the first takedown and settles into position, the fight moves to his world and the submission threat grows.
- 03
If RDA keeps the pressure on into round 3, the way Garcia did when he took Hernandez down in the final round while Hernandez was chasing the finish, the range edge the thesis leans on disappears.
- 04
If Hernandez drops RDA early with the right hand, more weight shifts toward the knockout route, but a knockdown settles neither the method nor the winner: Hernandez scored one against Damon Jackson in 2024 and lost a split decision, and RDA scored one against Gamrot (lost a decision) and one against Moicano (won a decision).
Underdog Path
RDA closes the distance without coming in on a straight line, gets to the clinch and changes levels against the fence. In the clinch and on the mat, his experience controls the rounds and Hernandez's neck becomes a target. He wins a decision on two rounds of pressure and control, or finds a submission if Hernandez gives up his back while getting up.
Required Conditions
- The knee holds up to pressure and level changes for 15 minutes
- Avoid walking straight into the right hand that dropped Hooper and Ferreira
- Turn clinch time into takedowns and top control, something untested in competition since March 2024
- Keep the pace in round 3 after nearly two years away
— Precedent: Rafa Garcia vs. Hernandez (UFC Vegas 116, April 2026): pressure, counters on the way in and takedowns in rounds 1 and 3 earned 29-28, 29-28 and 30-27.
Verdict
Winner
Alexander Hernandez
Method
Decision
Most likely winner
Alexander Hernandez wins
Hernandez comes in active, roughly eight years younger, with two inches of extra reach and a well-timed right hand that dropped Hooper and Ferreira in 2025. RDA returns after 23 months out and three knee surgeries, with no competitive test since. The other side is real: the game plan that beat Hernandez in April was pressure and takedowns, RDA has the career wrestling to try it, and the Brazilian has a long history of being hard to stop, though all of it predates the injury. The margin is thin, and this is an editorial estimate, not a calibrated one.
Stats That Matter
23
months since RDA last fought
Last fight in October 2024, with three left-knee surgeries since
3
RDA losses by strikes in 49 fights
His other two stoppage losses were injuries
2
Hernandez knockouts in 2025 set up by the right hand
Hooper in round 1, on a counter off the jab; Ferreira in round 2, after a first round in which Ferreira pressed and ate counters
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Rafael dos Anjos vs Alexander "El Gran Chango" Hernandez | UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang | October 3, 2026 | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, United States
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