June 27, 2026 · National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
Donchenko
14-2-0
UnrankedKorosten, Ukraine | 24 years old
Berggren
8-3-0
UnrankedUmeå, Sweden | 26 years old
The Brutalist Against the Debutant
Donchenko won TUF 33 and battered a tested vet in Morono. Berggren makes his UFC debut bigger, taller, and with eight wins, every single one a finish. It's volume and pedigree against size and a hunger for the finish.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Size Doesn't Stop Pressure
Donchenko is the loudest welterweight debut the UFC has had in 2026. He won The Ultimate Fighter 33, and in his first roster fight he erased any doubt: he dropped Alex Morono in round 1 with a left hook, chopped the veteran's leg apart with brutal calf kicks, and opened his face up with a spinning elbow on the way to a 30-26 decision. That's 7.15 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, 60% accuracy, and 73% striking defense. The nickname isn't marketing. He hits to hurt, with elbows and pressure. Berggren walks in as the classic European-debutant underdog, but he's no punching bag. He's the bigger man at 6-foot to Donchenko's 5-foot-11, taller, with equal or longer reach, and he owns a record where all eight of his wins ended before the judges. He's coming off back-to-back comeback knockouts, the latest over Samedov, who controlled him on the mat for two rounds before getting stopped. That's where the tension lives: Simba settles everything with his hands and his finishing instinct, but his three losses point straight at what Donchenko does best. Volume, pressure, and not biting on the wild exchange. Berggren has the hunger for the finish. Donchenko has the pedigree and the math that adds up.
Donchenko is the loudest welterweight debut the UFC has had in 2026. He won The Ultimate Fighter 33, and in his first roster fight he erased any doubt: he dropped Alex Morono in round 1 with a left hook, chopped the veteran's leg apart with brutal calf kicks, and opened his face up with a spinning elbow on the way to a 30-26 decision. That's 7.15 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, 60% accuracy, and 73% striking defense. The nickname isn't marketing. He hits to hurt, with elbows and pressure. Berggren walks in as the classic European-debutant underdog, but he's no punching bag. He's the bigger man at 6-foot to Donchenko's 5-foot-11, taller, with equal or longer reach, and he owns a record where all eight of his wins ended before the judges. He's coming off back-to-back comeback knockouts, the latest over Samedov, who controlled him on the mat for two rounds before getting stopped. That's where the tension lives: Simba settles everything with his hands and his finishing instinct, but his three losses point straight at what Donchenko does best. Volume, pressure, and not biting on the wild exchange. Berggren has the hunger for the finish. Donchenko has the pedigree and the math that adds up.
Tale of the Tape
Donchenko is 2 years younger
Berggren is the taller man
Berggren has about 3 cm more reach
Current Form
Daniil Donchenko
UFC Vegas 113. Roster debut against a rugged vet. Dropped him in round 1 with a left hook, chopped his leg with calf kicks, and opened his face with a spinning elbow. Dominant 30-26.
Unanimous DecisionTUF 33 final. Pressured and finished with strikes at 4:27 of round 1 to claim the contract and the season title.
TKO R1TUF 33 semifinal. Closed early, technical knockout at 2:12 of round 1, flashing the power that defined the season.
TKO R1Naiza FC. Went a full five rounds against a tough opponent and won clearly on the cards. Showed cardio for the long fight.
Unanimous DecisionNaiza FC. Took it to the floor and locked up the rear-naked choke in round 4, one of two career submissions.
Sub R4Four straight wins, three by knockout, and a TUF 33 title in his back pocket. In his official roster debut he steamrolled Alex Morono, a rugged welterweight vet, posting 30-26 on two cards. He's red-hot at 24, with high output and the ring savvy of someone who's already been through Naiza FC and ONE Championship. The read is a prospect on fire, and he took this fight against a debutant to stay active before he eyes ranked names.
Theodor Berggren
FCR 27 main event in Örebro. He got controlled and taken down for two rounds, then flipped the fight and finished with strikes. A gutsy comeback.
TKO R3Cage Warriors 195 in Rome. Climbed to rear mount and finished with ground-and-pound at 4:44 of round 2. His first Cage Warriors win.
TKO R2Lost a unanimous decision after three rounds. He was outworked on volume and pace, his second straight loss.
Unanimous DecisionCage Warriors 181 in Newcastle. His Cage Warriors debut in hostile territory. He got submitted by arm-triangle in round 3.
Sub R3Nordic circuit. Closed early, technical knockout in round 1, one of five career stoppage wins by strikes.
TKO R1Two straight comeback knockouts and a UFC debut landing right on time. Berggren stepped in on short notice for Andreas Gustafsson, who withdrew with a heart condition. He's riding a roller coaster: two knockouts after two losses, the most recent a comeback over Samedov, who controlled him on the mat for two rounds before Simba turned it around with his hands. The caveat is the level of competition. He built his record on the Nordic circuit and in Cage Warriors, never sharing the cage with anyone close to Donchenko's caliber, and his three losses map out how to beat him: volume and control.
Level of Competition
There are no common opponents, and the caliber tilts toward Donchenko. The Ukrainian already has two roster wins in the UFC, including a tested veteran in Morono, plus the TUF 33 title and a Naiza FC belt. Berggren built his record on the Nordic circuit and in Cage Warriors, where he traded knockouts with two losses, and this is his first fight at the UFC level. Both are still outside the rankings, but the gap in exposure to elite competition clearly favors the red corner.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Donchenko produces far more volume. Berggren has no UFC number yet because he's a debutant
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Donchenko absorbs little for the volume he delivers
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
Solid takedown defense from Donchenko. Berggren was controlled on the mat for two rounds in his last fight
Submissions per 15 Min
Donchenko leads in 6 categories · Berggren leads in 1
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men are finishers, but Donchenko has the bigger, more varied sample: 9 of his 14 wins by knockout, 2 submissions, and 3 decisions, with five first-round stoppages. Berggren is a pure finisher, all eight of his wins ended before the judges, 5 by knockout and 3 by submission. For the method it matters: neither likes leaving it to the scorecards, and whoever lands first tends to close the deal. The difference is that Donchenko has already proven it against UFC-caliber opposition.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is the key to the matchup. Neither man has been knocked out in his career, intact chins on both sides. Donchenko's two losses both came by decision, meaning the map to beat him is on the cards, and nobody has ever finished the Ukrainian. Berggren has been submitted once, an arm-triangle against Burlinson, and lost twice by decision to opponents who outworked him on volume. The detail that weighs: all three of the Swede's losses point straight at what Donchenko does, pressure and output. If this fight gets past fifteen minutes, that's the ground where Berggren has already stumbled.
Skills Profile
Donchenko
vs
Berggren
Striking em Distância
+1 Donchenko
Berggren is taller and has the reach to feint and kick from the outside, but Donchenko lands 7.15 strikes per minute and reads exchanges sharper.
Striking em Curta Distância
+3 Donchenko
Up close, Donchenko's elbows and pressure rule. That's how he opened Morono's face and won the entire TUF season with his hands.
Poder de Nocaute
+1 Donchenko
Both men hit to hurt. Donchenko has 9 knockouts in 14 wins, Berggren has 5 and never reached a decision when he won. Real power on both sides.
Defesa de Striking
+2 Donchenko
Donchenko has 73% striking defense in the UFC and absorbs just 2.57 per minute. He's harder to hit clean.
Grappling e Clinch
+1 Donchenko
Berggren has three submissions and finished Battaglia from top, but he got dominated on the mat by Samedov. Donchenko has 75% takedown defense and a rear-naked choke on his record.
Cardio (5 rounds)
+1 Donchenko
Donchenko has already gone five rounds in Naiza FC and is younger. Berggren tends to close early, and the question is how his gas tank holds up to three rounds of UFC-level pressure.
Donchenko holds the edge in nearly everything that matters for a three-round fight: volume, defense, pressure, and caliber of opposition. Berggren has the size, the reach, and the finishing hunger to find a window. The question isn't who's more dangerous in a single shot, it's whether the Swede can sustain the exchange against someone delivering 7.15 strikes per minute without getting broken first.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Daniil Donchenko wins because he's the far higher-volume, higher-caliber striker, with 7.15 significant strikes per minute, 60% accuracy, and 73% defense in the UFC, numbers he proved against a tested veteran in Morono and that Berggren has never faced at any level; because the Swede's three losses all came via volume and control, exactly the Ukrainian's pressure-and-output game; and because the caliber gap is glaring, with Donchenko owning a TUF 33 title and two roster wins against a debutant who built his record on the Nordic circuit.
The thesis is: Daniil Donchenko wins because he's the far higher-volume, higher-caliber striker, with 7.15 significant strikes per minute, 60% accuracy, and 73% defense in the UFC, numbers he proved against a tested veteran in Morono and that Berggren has never faced at any level; because the Swede's three losses all came via volume and control, exactly the Ukrainian's pressure-and-output game; and because the caliber gap is glaring, with Donchenko owning a TUF 33 title and two roster wins against a debutant who built his record on the Nordic circuit.
The path is Donchenko imposing calf kicks and elbows up close from round 1, neutralizing the Swede's size by closing the distance, and breaking Berggren down toward a TKO by mid-fight. This falls apart if Berggren uses his reach to keep the distance, kick from the outside, and refuse the wild exchange, keeping the fight alive to the judges or finding the knockout window his style always hunts.
Conviction
Conviction 7 because the thesis rests on four distinct, convergent dimensions: stats (Donchenko's 7.15 strikes per minute and 73% defense), style (Berggren's three losses came from volume and control, the Ukrainian's game), level of competition (Donchenko has beaten UFC caliber and won TUF 33, Berggren is debuting), and momentum (the Ukrainian is on four straight and steamrolled Morono). What holds the conviction at 7 and not 8 is honest: Berggren is the bigger, taller man, has never been knocked out, and all eight of his wins ended in a finish, so the finishing path is real. On top of that, it's a debut, and tall European debutants have shocked favorites before. This isn't a market read: the edge comes from volume, defense, and proven caliber, not the line.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Berggren can keep the distance with his reach and kick from the outside without getting pressured in round 1, he neutralizes Donchenko's close-range game and the TKO thesis doesn't happen.
- 02
If the Swede's size and finishing hunger produce a clean impact strike early, remembering that neither man has been knocked out but both hit hard, the fight can turn in an instant.
- 03
If Donchenko's debut against a bigger, taller opponent exposes a hole on the entry, and he gets clipped trying to close distance, the dominance read collapses.
- 04
If the fight cools off and goes to a decision, Donchenko is still favored on the cards for his volume, but the method margin widens and the TKO bet loses value.
Underdog Path
Berggren respects Donchenko's power, uses his size and reach to feint and kick from the outside without accepting the close-range exchange, keeps the Ukrainian at the end of his strikes, and manages the distance. At some point he lands a head kick or a clean combination, exactly the kind of finish that marks all eight of his wins, or he survives all three rounds and forces a decision in a fight where Donchenko's debut at the highest level is still an unknown.
Required Conditions
- Use his size and reach to keep the distance and not let Donchenko close in for the elbow and the calf kick
- Don't bite on the wild exchange up close, where the Ukrainian's hands and elbows do the most damage
- Land a clean impact strike, head kick or combination, taking advantage of the fact that neither man has been knocked out but both hit to hurt
- If the knockout doesn't come, sustain the pace and gas tank across three full rounds without getting broken by the pressure
— Precedent: Berggren himself has shown he flips losing fights, at FCR 27 he took a beating on the mat for two rounds from Samedov and still found the knockout. Tall, finish-hungry European debutants occasionally shock heavy favorites when they keep the distance, but the precedent is weak here because Berggren has never faced this caliber.
Verdict
Winner
Daniil Donchenko
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Daniil Donchenko
Donchenko because he's the far higher-volume, higher-caliber striker, with defense and pressure Berggren has never faced. The line doesn't pay, so this is more read than value. It falls apart if the Swede holds the distance with his reach for three rounds.
- 02
Método
Donchenko by KO/TKO
Donchenko by TKO because his heavy hands and elbows show up almost every time, 9 KOs in 14 wins, and he dropped and broke down Morono up close. The market pays because Berggren has never been knocked out. It falls apart if the Swede keeps the distance and refuses to trade up close.
- 03
Como termina (qualquer lutador)
Fight ends inside the distance (either fighter)
Finish on either side because both men are finishers, Donchenko has 11 finishes and Berggren has 8 wins all by stoppage. This has the look of a fight that doesn't reach the cards. It falls apart if Berggren's size turns this into a tactical distance fight.
- 04
Vencedor azarão
Berggren by KO/TKO
Berggren by knockout as an honest longshot because he's the bigger man, hits hard, and has the reach to land a head kick. The market underrates his size, but the path is narrow against Donchenko's volume. Only as a small stake or a parlay leg.
Most Likely Outcome
Donchenko by KO/TKO, moderate stake
It's the most solid read with some method value: the Ukrainian's volume, elbows, and pressure against a debutant who struggles with high output point toward a TKO. Conviction 7 means not overloading the bet, because Berggren has never been knocked out and it's a debut, where surprise fits.
Stats That Matter
7.15
significant strikes per minute for Donchenko in the UFC, against a Berggren who doesn't have a cage number yet
Volume and pressure that already beat a tested vet in Morono
ZERO
knockouts suffered by either fighter in their entire careers
Intact chins on both sides, which pushes the fight toward volume and attrition
DEBUT
Berggren's first fight at the UFC level, his whole record came from the Nordic circuit and Cage Warriors
Donchenko already has two roster wins and the TUF 33 title
The Trap
Berggren by knockout in the underdog mold
The public will see eight wins, all by finish, and the gutsy comeback over Samedov, and they'll bet Berggren by knockout figuring the Swede ends it with his hands. Careful: he's never faced anyone with Donchenko's volume and defense, a guy landing 7.15 strikes per minute and absorbing just 2.57. Berggren's three losses show he struggles against output and pressure, exactly the Ukrainian's game. The finishing path exists, but it's narrow, and the likeliest road to an upset is the Swede using his size to manage distance, not trading even.
The public will see eight wins, all by finish, and the gutsy comeback over Samedov, and they'll bet Berggren by knockout figuring the Swede ends it with his hands. Careful: he's never faced anyone with Donchenko's volume and defense, a guy landing 7.15 strikes per minute and absorbing just 2.57. Berggren's three losses show he struggles against output and pressure, exactly the Ukrainian's game. The finishing path exists, but it's narrow, and the likeliest road to an upset is the Swede using his size to manage distance, not trading even.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Daniil "The Brutalist" Donchenko vs Theodor "Simba" Berggren | UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres | June 27, 2026 | National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
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