May 2, 2026 · RAC Arena, Perth, Australia
Della Maddalena
18-3-0
#1 WelterweightPerth, Australia | 29 years old
Prates
23-7-0
#5 WelterweightTaubaté, Brazil | 32 years old
Homecoming or Heartbreak
JDM returns home after Makhachev handled him over five rounds. Prates rolls in red-hot. The geometry tilts hard toward The Nightmare.
THE DECIDING POINT
The Geometry Favors The Nightmare
The easy story is JDM coming home, the former champ using crisp boxing to neutralize the Brazilian. Read the fight tape and the story flips. Prates has five inches of reach, three of height, and one-punch power that lives in the all-time tier (18 KOs in 23 wins, 7th-best knockdown rate in UFC history). He rolls in off back-to-back KOs of top-tier names. JDM rolls in off a 50-45 sweep against Makhachev — three judges, no disagreement, and public chatter that he was hurt during the fight. Edwards' round-one game plan against Prates (clinch, takedown, RNC fishing) is replicable for JDM, but he'd have to hold that for 25 minutes instead of five. The current Fighting Nerds version of Prates was built specifically to defend that look.
Truth A
JDM is a former champion, BJJ black belt, has been to championship rounds against grapplers. Fighting at home in Perth with redemption-arc juice after the Makhachev humbling. Crisp boxing against a southpaw — proven against Belal.
Truth B
Prates has three inches of height, five of reach, southpaw straight left that put Edwards down at 1:28 of round 2. KO of a former champion in November. JDM is six months off, possible injury, came in admitting "laziness" in his last camp.
Tale of the Tape
JDM is three years younger.
Prates 2 inches taller.
Prates owns 5 inches of reach. Central edge.
Asymmetric stance matchup.
Boutique home gym vs rising-tide camp.
Current Form
Jack Della Maddalena
Outwrestled for 25 straight minutes. Lost the title.
Unanimous Decision (50-45 x3)Won the welterweight title in Montreal.
Unanimous DecisionVeteran striker stopped on the feet.
TKO R3Competitive split against an athletic striker.
Split DecisionTight split against a debutant. Showed work to do.
Split DecisionComing off a dominant loss to Islam Makhachev in November 2025 — roughly 20 minutes of bottom control and three 50-45 cards. He called the performance "lazy" himself and said he "should have been more aggressive." Analysts speculated about an ACL or leg fracture during the fight. Six months on the shelf before this homecoming.
Carlos Prates
Edwards owned R1 in the clinch. Straight left dropped him in R2.
KO R2 (1:28)Rare spinning back elbow finish. Performance bonus.
KO R1 (4:59)Full five rounds. Cardio held. R5 comeback.
Unanimous DecisionUFC veteran cracked early in round 1.
KO R1First fighter ever to KO Jingliang.
KO R2Two top-tier KOs in five months: spinning back elbow on Geoff Neal at the end of round 1 in August, straight left on former champ Leon Edwards in round 2 in November. The only recent loss is a unanimous decision to Ian Garry in April 2025 — a five-round main event he made it through despite his self-admitted smoking habit, proof his gas tank holds. Riding the Fighting Nerds wave (Caio Borralho, Mauricio Ruffy, Jean Silva).
Level of Competition
No recent common opponents. Calibre is comparable: JDM's cluster is more elite (Makhachev, Belal, Burns), Prates ran a mix of top 5 (Garry, Edwards) and top 15 (Neal, Magny, Jingliang). Calibre gap = 1, below the threshold for a flag.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
JDM has the volume edge. Prates does more damage per shot.
Knockdowns per 15 Min
Prates ranks 7th-best in UFC history on this metric.
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/Min
Prates is harder to hit — true counter-puncher profile.
Strike Defense (%)
Slight edge for Prates — frame and reach.
Takedowns per 15 Min
JDM is the more active offensive wrestler.
Takedown Defense (%)
Prates leveled up his TDD after Garry and Edwards.
Della Maddalena leads in 2 categories · Prates leads in 4
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both finishers. Prates 78% KO rate, JDM 67%. But JDM has gone the distance in 80% of his last five UFC fights — a sign the calibre stepped up and he extends. Prates UFC decision rate is 20%, average fight time 9:10.
Skills Profile
Della Maddalena
vs
Prates
Boxing / Stand-Up Volume
+2 Della Maddalena
JDM out-volumes at mid-range.
Knockout Power
+3 Prates
Prates 18 KOs in 23 wins. JDM 12 in 18.
Reach / Range Control
+4 Prates
5-inch reach gap. Mechanical edge is clean.
Wrestling / Clinch
+3 Della Maddalena
BJJ black belt with the toolset to run Edwards' round 1.
Submission Defense
Even
Both BJJ black belts.
Cardio / 5-Round Capacity
+1 Della Maddalena
JDM has 25 minutes against Belal and Makhachev. Prates went the distance with Garry.
Prates wins on physical (reach, height, power), JDM on volume and wrestling. The fight pivots on who controls the range.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis: Carlos Prates wins because, first, he owns crushing physical advantages in reach and height (5 inches and 3 inches) that block JDM from closing the pocket where his boxing operates.
The thesis: Carlos Prates wins because, first, he owns crushing physical advantages in reach and height (5 inches and 3 inches) that block JDM from closing the pocket where his boxing operates.
Second, he's coming off back-to-back KOs of top-tier names (Edwards R2, Neal R1 with a spinning back elbow) while JDM is coming off a 50-45 sweep and admitted "laziness" in camp.
Third, Fighting Nerds prepped a clinch defense (Edwards owned R1 but couldn't finish, Prates came back and starched him in R2) — exactly the look JDM would have to sustain over 25 minutes.
The path: Prates absorbs an early clinch attempt, lands the straight left or a kick, KO between rounds 1 and 3, or pulls away in stand-up if he survives the wrestling.
This collapses if JDM replicates Edwards' round one and holds it for five full rounds without biting on the stand-up.
Conviction
Conviction 7 because five independent dimensions (physical, stats, momentum, style, qualitative intel) all converge on Prates. Not 8 because JDM is a former champion, BJJ black belt, has been to championship rounds — and has a real path (39%) through sustained wrestling.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
JDM replicates Edwards' R1 and holds clinch + takedowns for the full 25 minutes
- 02
Prates fights too defensively out of respect for the boxing and never lets the straight left go
- 03
JDM grinds it to a decision with wrestling, banks tight cards at home
- 04
The Makhachev injury sharpened JDM's prep through urgency rather than dulled him
Underdog Path
JDM hits the clinch within the first 90 seconds, executes a takedown the way Edwards did, settles into top control. Repeats the pattern across all five rounds without biting on the stand-up bait. Wins on grappling and control time, with jab pressure when standing. Unanimous decision, Belal blueprint.
Required Conditions
- Full recovery from any lingering injury from the Makhachev fight
- Doesn't take the bait to stand and trade with Prates
- Cardio for 25 minutes of active clinch wrestling
- Defense against the southpaw straight left in transitions
— Precedent: Edwards R1 vs Prates (UFC 322): clinch wrestling, takedown attempt, RNC fishing. It worked for five minutes. JDM would have to sustain the same look for five times longer.
Verdict
Winner
Carlos Prates
Method
KO/TKO or Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Carlos Prates
Line opened Prates and moved to JDM on heavy Australian public action. The market sits at Prates 61%, in line with our 58% read. Grab Prates before the line stabilizes near pickem. Edge of 7-8% over the implied probability at the books.
- 02
Method
Prates by ITD (Inside the Distance)
Prates has finished 5 of 6 UFC wins by KO/TKO, four of them in rounds 1-2. Real finish probability sits in the 45-50% range. The implied is 35.7%, edge of 10-15%. Covers KO, TKO, and submission. Best bet on the card.
- 03
Rounds
Over 1.5 rounds
Edwards fell at 1:28 of R2, Neal at 4:59 of R1. JDM has the clinch boxing to survive R1. Prates has stopped trying to wrap everything up in the first round. High probability this gets past the round-and-a-half mark.
Most Likely Outcome
Prates by ITD
Highest expected edge on the card. Prates is a finishing machine (5 of 6 UFC wins by KO) and he's not facing a wrestler like Garry — he's facing a striker who's going to operate in his space. If he lands once, it's a wrap.
Stats That Matter
7th
Highest knockdown rate in UFC history
2.1 KD/15 min for Prates. All-time-tier power.
50-45
Unanimous cards against JDM
Makhachev banked 20+ minutes of control time in November.
+5"
Reach advantage for Prates
78" vs 73". Geometry is clean.
78%
Prates' finish rate
18 KOs in 23 wins. JDM is at 67%.
The Trap
Trap: JDM by Decision
The market is going to hammer JDM by decision off his 80% decision rate over the last five fights and the narrative that "he's already gone 25 minutes with Belal and Makhachev." Problem is, those decisions came against grapplers (Belal, Makhachev) or against strikers JDM chased (Burns ended in TKO R3). Prates isn't going to back up the way Belal did. Volume will be there for both — but damage per shot lives with Prates. JDM by decision asks him to win on terrain Prates has already shown he's learned to defend.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Jack "JDM" Della Maddalena vs Carlos "The Nightmare" Prates | UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates | May 2, 2026 | RAC Arena, Perth, Australia