UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates · May 2, 2026 · Welterweight (170 lbs) · 5R
Della Maddalena vs Prates
Homecoming or Heartbreak
JDM returns home after Makhachev handled him over five rounds. Prates rolls in red-hot. The geometry tilts hard toward The Nightmare.
Jack "JDM" Della Maddalena
18-3-0 · #1 Welterweight
Carlos "The Nightmare" Prates
23-7-0 · #5 Welterweight
In 30 seconds
Carlos Prates wins by KO/TKO or Decision
- 7thHighest knockdown rate in UFC history2.1 KD/15 min for Prates. All-time-tier power.
- 50-45Unanimous cards against JDMMakhachev banked 20+ minutes of control time in November.
- +5"Reach advantage for Prates78" vs 73". Geometry is clean.
The key to the fight
THE DECIDING POINT
The Geometry Favors The Nightmare
The easy story is JDM coming home, the former champ using crisp boxing to neutralize the Brazilian. Read the fight tape and the story flips. Prates has five inches of reach, three of height, and one-punch power that lives in the all-time tier (18 KOs in 23 wins, 7th-best knockdown rate in UFC history).
He rolls in off back-to-back KOs of top-tier names. JDM rolls in off a 50-45 sweep against Makhachev — three judges, no disagreement, and public chatter that he was hurt during the fight.
Edwards' round-one game plan against Prates (clinch, takedown, RNC fishing) is replicable for JDM, but he'd have to hold that for 25 minutes instead of five. The current Fighting Nerds version of Prates was built specifically to defend that look.
JDM is a former champion, BJJ black belt, has been to championship rounds against grapplers. Fighting at home in Perth with redemption-arc juice after the Makhachev humbling. Crisp boxing against a southpaw — proven against Belal.
Prates has three inches of height, five of reach, southpaw straight left that put Edwards down at 1:28 of round 2. KO of a former champion in November. JDM is six months off, possible injury, came in admitting "laziness" in his last camp.
Tale of the Tape
| Della Maddalena | Tale of the Tape | Prates |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | AgeJDM is three years younger. | 32 |
| 5'11" | HeightPrates 2 inches taller. | 6'1" |
| 73" | ReachPrates owns 5 inches of reach. Central edge. | 78" |
| Orthodox | StanceAsymmetric stance matchup. | Southpaw |
| Scrappy MMA | CampBoutique home gym vs rising-tide camp. | Fighting Nerds |
Current form
Opponent caliber in recent fights
| Fighter | Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Opponent caliber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | Jul 2023 | Bassil Hafez | W | Split Decision | 2 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | Sep 2023 | Kevin Holland | W | Split Decision | 4 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | Mar 2024 | Gilbert Burns | W | TKO R3 | 5 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | May 2025 | Belal Muhammad | W | Unanimous Decision | 5 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | Nov 2025 | Islam Makhachev | L | Unanimous Decision (50-45 x3) | 5 |
| Carlos Prates | Aug 2024 | Li Jingliang | W | KO R2 | 3 |
| Carlos Prates | Nov 2024 | Neil Magny | W | KO R1 | 3 |
| Carlos Prates | Apr 2025 | Ian Garry | L | Unanimous Decision | 5 |
| Carlos Prates | Aug 2025 | Geoff Neal | W | KO R1 (4:59) | 4 |
| Carlos Prates | Nov 2025 | Leon Edwards | W | KO R2 (1:28) | 5 |
Jack Della Maddalena · Recovering
Coming off a dominant loss to Islam Makhachev in November 2025 — roughly 20 minutes of bottom control and three 50-45 cards. He called the performance "lazy" himself and said he "should have been more aggressive." Analysts speculated about an ACL or leg fracture during the fight. Six months on the shelf before this homecoming.
Carlos Prates · Hot
Two top-tier KOs in five months: spinning back elbow on Geoff Neal at the end of round 1 in August, straight left on former champ Leon Edwards in round 2 in November.
The only recent loss is a unanimous decision to Ian Garry in April 2025 — a five-round main event he made it through despite his self-admitted smoking habit, proof his gas tank holds. Riding the Fighting Nerds wave (Caio Borralho, Mauricio Ruffy, Jean Silva).
Level of competition
Della Maddalena
Average opponent level (1 to 5)5
Record4W-1L (last 5)
Against the top 52W-1L
Prates
Average opponent level (1 to 5)4
Record4W-1L (last 5)
Against the top 51W-1L
No recent common opponents. Calibre is comparable: JDM's cluster is more elite (Makhachev, Belal, Burns), Prates ran a mix of top 5 (Garry, Edwards) and top 15 (Neal, Magny, Jingliang). Calibre gap = 1, below the threshold for a flag.
Stats
Sig. Strikes per MinuteJDM has the volume edge. Prates does more damage per shot.
Knockdowns per 15 MinPrates ranks 7th-best in UFC history on this metric.
Sig. Strikes Absorbed/Min (lower is better)Prates is harder to hit — true counter-puncher profile.
Strike Defense (%)Slight edge for Prates — frame and reach.
Takedowns per 15 MinJDM is the more active offensive wrestler.
Takedown Defense (%)Prates leveled up his TDD after Garry and Edwards.
How they win and lose
Della Maddalena
- KO/TKO 67% (12)
- Submission 11% (2)
- Decision 22% (4)
Prates
- KO/TKO 78% (18)
- Submission 13% (3)
- Decision 9% (2)
Both finishers. Prates 78% KO rate, JDM 67%. But JDM has gone the distance in 80% of his last five UFC fights — a sign the calibre stepped up and he extends. Prates UFC decision rate is 20%, average fight time 9:10.
Skills
Where each fighter has the edge
1. Boxing / Stand-Up VolumeEdge: Della Maddalena (2/5)
JDM out-volumes at mid-range.
2. Knockout PowerEdge: Prates (3/5)
Prates 18 KOs in 23 wins. JDM 12 in 18.
3. Reach / Range ControlEdge: Prates (4/5)
5-inch reach gap. Mechanical edge is clean.
4. Wrestling / ClinchEdge: Della Maddalena (3/5)
BJJ black belt with the toolset to run Edwards' round 1.
5. Submission DefenseEven
Both BJJ black belts.
6. Cardio / 5-Round CapacityEdge: Della Maddalena (1/5)
JDM has 25 minutes against Belal and Makhachev. Prates went the distance with Garry.
Prates wins on physical (reach, height, power), JDM on volume and wrestling. The fight pivots on who controls the range.
Full prediction
The thesis
The thesis: Carlos Prates wins because, first, he owns crushing physical advantages in reach and height (5 inches and 3 inches) that block JDM from closing the pocket where his boxing operates.
Second, he's coming off back-to-back KOs of top-tier names (Edwards R2, Neal R1 with a spinning back elbow) while JDM is coming off a 50-45 sweep and admitted "laziness" in camp.
Third, Fighting Nerds prepped a clinch defense (Edwards owned R1 but couldn't finish, Prates came back and starched him in R2) — exactly the look JDM would have to sustain over 25 minutes.
The path: Prates absorbs an early clinch attempt, lands the straight left or a kick, KO between rounds 1 and 3, or pulls away in stand-up if he survives the wrestling. This collapses if JDM replicates Edwards' round one and holds it for five full rounds without biting on the stand-up.
Conviction 7 because five independent dimensions (physical, stats, momentum, style, qualitative intel) all converge on Prates. Not 8 because JDM is a former champion, BJJ black belt, has been to championship rounds — and has a real path (39%) through sustained wrestling.
What breaks the thesis
- JDM replicates Edwards' R1 and holds clinch + takedowns for the full 25 minutes
- Prates fights too defensively out of respect for the boxing and never lets the straight left go
- JDM grinds it to a decision with wrestling, banks tight cards at home
- The Makhachev injury sharpened JDM's prep through urgency rather than dulled him
The underdog's path
JDM hits the clinch within the first 90 seconds, executes a takedown the way Edwards did, settles into top control. Repeats the pattern across all five rounds without biting on the stand-up bait. Wins on grappling and control time, with jab pressure when standing. Unanimous decision, Belal blueprint.
- Full recovery from any lingering injury from the Makhachev fight
- Doesn't take the bait to stand and trade with Prates
- Cardio for 25 minutes of active clinch wrestling
- Defense against the southpaw straight left in transitions