July 11, 2026 · T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Costa
16-5-0
Manaus, Brazil | 30 years old
Durden
18-10-1
Georgia, USA | 35 years old
Young Power, Veteran Wrestling
Costa closes the UFC 329 card riding two knockouts, a BJJ black belt ready to punish Durden's only route in: the takedown. At 35 and 1-4 in his last five, the wrestler has to solve what Costa's 86% takedown defense keeps saying no.
ONDE A LUTA SE DECIDE
The Wrestler Who Can't Wrestle Here
Cody Durden is a wrestler. That's his identity, and that's his problem. At 35, the Georgia veteran shoots roughly four takedowns every fifteen minutes, the number of a man who knows he has to drag the fight to the mat to win it. Except his route runs into two walls at once. The first: Alessandro Costa stuffs 86% of the takedowns thrown at him. The second, and crueler one: when Durden does get a body to the canvas, he tends to be the one who gets caught. Five of the American's ten losses came by submission — guillotine, rear-naked choke, anaconda, triangle. Across from him stands a BJJ black belt with six submission wins and zero submission losses in twenty-one pro fights. Durden has to play the exact game Costa is most dangerous in. And if the fight stays standing, the picture doesn't get any kinder for the veteran. Costa closed his last two outings with knockouts — a liver shot that folded Nicoll and a first-round blitz on Schnell — and all four of his UFC wins came by strikes. Durden, meanwhile, has been knocked out twice in his last five (Bruno Silva and Jose Ochoa) and walks in 1-4 over that stretch. His chin isn't what it was, and he's staring at the heaviest hands any unranked flyweight can offer. The caveat is real and worth stating: Costa has been knocked out twice himself in the UFC, both times in the third round, and he took this fight on short notice, five weeks after stopping Schnell. But to exploit that, Durden would have to win a stand-up firefight, and standing has never been his plan. The American's road to victory is narrow, and it runs straight through the ground Costa hurts people on.
Cody Durden is a wrestler. That's his identity, and that's his problem. At 35, the Georgia veteran shoots roughly four takedowns every fifteen minutes, the number of a man who knows he has to drag the fight to the mat to win it. Except his route runs into two walls at once. The first: Alessandro Costa stuffs 86% of the takedowns thrown at him. The second, and crueler one: when Durden does get a body to the canvas, he tends to be the one who gets caught. Five of the American's ten losses came by submission — guillotine, rear-naked choke, anaconda, triangle. Across from him stands a BJJ black belt with six submission wins and zero submission losses in twenty-one pro fights. Durden has to play the exact game Costa is most dangerous in. And if the fight stays standing, the picture doesn't get any kinder for the veteran. Costa closed his last two outings with knockouts — a liver shot that folded Nicoll and a first-round blitz on Schnell — and all four of his UFC wins came by strikes. Durden, meanwhile, has been knocked out twice in his last five (Bruno Silva and Jose Ochoa) and walks in 1-4 over that stretch. His chin isn't what it was, and he's staring at the heaviest hands any unranked flyweight can offer. The caveat is real and worth stating: Costa has been knocked out twice himself in the UFC, both times in the third round, and he took this fight on short notice, five weeks after stopping Schnell. But to exploit that, Durden would have to win a stand-up firefight, and standing has never been his plan. The American's road to victory is narrow, and it runs straight through the ground Costa hurts people on.
Tale of the Tape
Costa is 5 years younger and far fresher in mileage
Durden has a 3-inch height edge
Identical reach: despite being shorter, Costa has long reach for his frame
Open-stance matchup — watch for the calf kick and the rear cross
Costa trains with Diego Lopes in Mexico; Durden reps ATT Atlanta
The black belt has never been submitted. The wrestler has tapped five times
Current Form
Alessandro Costa
Muhammad vs Bonfim card. Short notice again. Costa came out firing and flattened veteran Matt Schnell with a flurry at 2:28 of round one. Second straight stoppage.
TKO R1Moicano vs Duncan card. A perfect liver shot folded Scotland's Stewart Nicoll at 4:56 of round two. Performance of the Night and $100,000 in the bank.
TKO R2Noche UFC, Lopes vs Silva card. He was in a hard fight with prospect Alden Coria when a burst of punches early in round three caught him, stopped at 0:47. Second UFC knockout suffered, both in round three.
TKO R3UFC 301, in Rio. Costa broke down Peru's Kevin Borjas with punches at 1:35 of round two. A clean bonus knockout at home in Brazil.
TKO R2UFC 295, New York. Dropped a unanimous decision to Australia's Steve Erceg, who months later would fight for the flyweight title. A quality loss — not finished, not flattened.
Unanimous DecisionCosta is living the best stretch of his UFC career. Two straight knockouts — a liver shot that folded Stewart Nicoll for a $100,000 Performance of the Night, and a first-round blitz that flattened veteran Matt Schnell in just over two minutes, taken on short notice. All four of his Octagon wins came by strikes, which says plenty about the power he carries for a flyweight. The caveat lives in the losses: he was knocked out by Amir Albazi on debut and by Alden Coria in 2025, both in the third round. The chin isn't granite, but he arrives young, red-hot and finishing everything in front of him.
Cody Durden
Sterling vs Zalal card. Durden leaned on his wrestling and pace to take a unanimous decision over Brazil's Jafel Filho. A win that stopped a bad run and showed the control plan still works against anyone he can put down.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 326. Lost a unanimous decision to Mongolia's Nyamjargal Tumendemberel in a fight where he couldn't impose the wrestling. Third loss in four fights.
Unanimous DecisionGarcia vs Onama card. Submitted by Brazil's Allan Nascimento with an anaconda choke in round two. Exactly the kind of trouble that haunts Durden: he got it to the mat and ended up caught.
Submission R2Usman vs Buckley card. Knocked out by Jose Ochoa in round two. A red flag on the veteran's chin, the first of two knockouts suffered in a short span.
TKO R2UFC 310. Lost a unanimous decision to Joshua Van, now one of the division's rising names. A respectable loss, but another fight where the wrestling didn't tip it his way.
Unanimous DecisionDurden's form is the portrait of a veteran holding the line. He's coming off a win, a unanimous decision over Jafel Filho in April that stopped the bleeding, but the wider frame is alarming: 1-4 in his last five, with two knockouts suffered (Bruno Silva and Jose Ochoa) and a submission loss (Allan Nascimento) mixed in. At 35, with a high-school state-champion wrestling base and more than a decade on the road, he's still tough and experienced, but the recent results against the division say the window is closing. The Filho win bought time; it didn't reverse the trend.
Level of Competition
The picture here is more nuanced than the age gap suggests. Durden owns the longer record and, on paper, the tougher slate: 17 UFC fights against names like Muhammad Mokaev, Tagir Ulanbekov and Joshua Van. The catch is that he came out on the losing side of most of those tests and arrives 1-4 in his last five. Costa took a shorter road, but his losses carry a quality stamp: Amir Albazi (a ranked contender) and Steve Erceg (who months later fought for the belt). The two share a common opponent, Matt Schnell, and both won — but Costa finished faster and more violently, a first-round KO against Durden's second-round submission. It's the portrait of a rising Brazilian against a veteran whose best days look to be behind him.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Costa is the busier, heavier puncher. Durden throws less and without the same damage
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Accuracy is close, but Costa's impact is bigger
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Durden absorbs more, and his chin is coming off two recent knockouts
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Costa protects himself better in the pocket
Takedowns por 15 Min
This is Durden's whole game. He lives on takedowns; Costa almost never shoots
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Durden lands about half the takedowns he tries. Costa rarely goes for them, hence the low number
Defesa de Takedown (%)
The stat that decides it. Costa defends 86% of takedowns, and the takedown is exactly Durden's path
Submissões por 15 Min
Durden attacks more submissions, but he's been submitted five times. Costa is a black belt who's never tapped
Costa leads in 5 categories · Durden leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men finish, but in ways that reveal the matchup. Costa is the more explosive: 7 knockouts and 6 submissions in 16 wins, and in the UFC all four came by strikes, above-average power for a flyweight. Durden is the more balanced on paper — 6 knockouts, 6 submissions and 6 decisions — but his knockouts are old and regional; in the UFC he really wins by control decision. It matters for the method: Costa wants the impact, Durden wants the grind.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles are the heart of this analysis. Costa has never been submitted: his 5 defeats came by knockout (3, all in the third round) or decision (2), which flags a questionable chin but a submission-proof ground game. Durden is the exact opposite on the mat: of his 10 losses, 5 came by submission, the classic hole of a wrestler who shoots and gets caught. He's also coming off 2 recent knockouts suffered, a sign of a chin declining at 35. In practice: Costa can be knocked out if he stands still in a long exchange, but Durden doesn't have the punch for that; and Durden can be submitted if he takes the fight to the mat, which is exactly what he needs to do. The sample on Costa's side is smaller (5 losses), but the pattern is clear.
Skills Profile
Costa
vs
Durden
Striking em Pé
+2 Costa
Costa throws more, lands heavier and defends better. All four of his UFC wins came by strikes.
Wrestling e Quedas
+3 Durden
Durden's territory: four takedowns every 15 minutes, a state-champion wrestling base. It's his only real path, but it runs into Costa's 86% defense.
Grappling e Jiu-Jitsu
+2 Costa
If it hits the mat, the danger flips: Costa is a black belt with six submission wins and zero submission losses; Durden has been submitted five times.
Poder de Nocaute
+2 Costa
Costa carries the heavier hands and rides two knockouts. Durden has been flattened twice in his last five.
Ritmo e Cardio (3 rounds)
+1 Durden
Durden is a three-round grinder who drags fights into deep water. Costa took this on short notice, five weeks after Schnell, a question mark on the gas tank.
Experiência no Octógono
+1 Durden
Durden has 17 UFC fights and over a decade on the road against Costa's eight. Veteran fight IQ, even if the recent results have slipped.
On paper Durden owns the wrestling, the grinding cardio and the experience. The problem is that the wrestling runs into Costa's 86% takedown defense and a black belt who punishes anyone who shoots, and the cardio only matters if he survives the Brazilian's power on the feet. Costa wins the exchanges, wins the mat and wins the punch. The veteran's path exists, but it's narrow and it runs through his opponent's most dangerous ground.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Alessandro Costa wins because Durden's only route to victory, the wrestling, is exactly the ground where the Brazilian is strongest defensively (86% takedown defense) and most dangerous offensively (a BJJ black belt, six submission wins, zero submission losses in 21 fights, against a Durden who's been submitted five times). On the feet the picture gets worse for the veteran: Costa carries the heavier hands, won all four of his UFC fights by strikes and rides two knockouts, while Durden's chin has failed twice in his last five. Add the diverging trajectories — Costa is 30 and climbing, Durden is 35 and arrives 1-4 — and the common opponent, Matt Schnell, whom Costa finished faster.
The thesis is: Alessandro Costa wins because Durden's only route to victory, the wrestling, is exactly the ground where the Brazilian is strongest defensively (86% takedown defense) and most dangerous offensively (a BJJ black belt, six submission wins, zero submission losses in 21 fights, against a Durden who's been submitted five times). On the feet the picture gets worse for the veteran: Costa carries the heavier hands, won all four of his UFC fights by strikes and rides two knockouts, while Durden's chin has failed twice in his last five. Add the diverging trajectories — Costa is 30 and climbing, Durden is 35 and arrives 1-4 — and the common opponent, Matt Schnell, whom Costa finished faster.
The path is Costa defending the takedowns, forcing the fight to stay standing and breaking Durden down until a knockout or a comfortable decision. It falls apart if Costa's short-notice cardio sags in a three-round grind, or if the man who's been dropped twice in round three gets careless in an exchange.
Conviction
Conviction 7 because the thesis is specific and crosses four dimensions that all point the same way: style (Durden's wrestling dies against Costa's takedown defense and jiu-jitsu), power and chin (Costa hits harder and Durden is coming off two knockouts suffered), trajectory and age (30 climbing against 35 fading) and the common opponent (Costa finished Schnell faster). This isn't a market read: the books already have Costa, but the edge here doesn't come from the line, it comes from the concrete fact that Durden is forced to play the exact game he gets hurt in most. What keeps the conviction from climbing to 8 is honest: Costa took this on very short notice with a tiny turnaround, his own chin is a question (two UFC knockouts suffered), and Durden is a tough enough veteran to turn this into an ugly three-round grind. That's why the method stays open between knockout and decision, even if the winner looks clear.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Durden completes takedowns despite the 86% and controls whole rounds from the top, he steals the decision on the grind, and volume wrestling has always been able to do that.
- 02
If Costa's short-notice cardio sags in round three (five weeks after Schnell, two weeks' notice), the deep water favors the more experienced veteran.
- 03
If Costa gets careless in an exchange, remember he's been knocked out twice himself in the UFC, both times in round three.
- 04
Durden is too tough and too experienced to be run over early; he can simply survive and make it ugly enough to dull Costa's shine.
Underdog Path
Durden's path isn't the knockout, it's the grind. He needs to complete takedowns despite the 86%, pin Costa on the fence, control from the top without exposing his neck to the guillotine and steal rounds on volume and control, turning it into an ugly three-round scrap. That's exactly the script of his decision wins over Hadley, Charles Johnson and Filho. If Costa's short-notice gas tank dips in round three, the veteran has the experience to close on the cards.
Required Conditions
- Actually complete takedowns against 86% defense, not just attempt them
- Control from the top without giving up the neck, the mistake that got him tapped by Nascimento and others
- Survive Costa's power through the first ten minutes, without repeating the knockouts he took from Silva and Ochoa
- Drag it into deep water and bet that Costa's short notice charges a price in round three
— Precedent: Durden's own control decisions over Jake Hadley, Charles Johnson and Aoriqileng show that when he gets it down and holds it, he wins on the cards. The mold exists. The problem is that none of those men defended takedowns at 86% or were black belts ready to submit him from the bottom.
Verdict
Winner
Alessandro Costa
Method
Knockout
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Alessandro Costa
Costa because the style favors him in every scenario: he defends the takedown that's Durden's only plan, he's more dangerous on the mat and he hits harder on the feet. Moderate stake, not heavy, because isn't cheap and Durden is a tough veteran who can make it ugly.
- 02
Total Rounds
Over 1.5 rounds
The sharper read isn't the flash KO, it's patience. Durden is rarely run over early, and the likeliest script is Costa breaking the veteran down over the rounds, not in five seconds. Over 1.5 rounds captures that, and it's where the market agrees.
- 03
Underdog
Cody Durden
It has to be acknowledged: if Durden completes the takedowns and Costa's short notice bites, the veteran's three-round grind steals the decision. A conscious longshot, not the main read, and it. It breaks if Costa defends the takedowns the way he always has.
Most Likely Outcome
Alessandro Costa, moderate stake
The winner is the confident part of the read: Durden is forced to play the game he gets hurt in most. The method stays open between knockout and decision, so the cleanest expression is the moneyline, at a moderate stake because the price isn't cheap and the veteran knows how to survive.
Stats That Matter
ZERO
times Costa has been submitted in 21 pro fights. Durden has tapped 5 times
The BJJ black belt faces a wrestler with a hole in his ground game
86%
Costa's takedown defense, against a Durden who only wins by getting it to the mat
Durden shoots four takedowns every 15 minutes and lands under half
1-4
Durden's record over his last 5 fights, with 2 knockouts suffered in that span
At 35, against a 30-year-old Costa riding two straight knockouts
The Trap
Costa by first-round knockout
The public saw Costa's two straight knockouts and already pictures a quick blowout. The line itself pushes back: over 1.5 rounds sits, meaning the market expects this to get past round one. Durden is a tough veteran, rarely run over early, a specialist at turning fights into ugly clinch-and-cage battles. And it's worth remembering: Costa took this on short notice, five weeks after Schnell, and he's been knocked out twice himself in the UFC. Betting a flash KO pays, but it ignores that the likeliest script is Costa breaking Durden down gradually, not in five seconds.
The public saw Costa's two straight knockouts and already pictures a quick blowout. The line itself pushes back: over 1.5 rounds sits, meaning the market expects this to get past round one. Durden is a tough veteran, rarely run over early, a specialist at turning fights into ugly clinch-and-cage battles. And it's worth remembering: Costa took this on short notice, five weeks after Schnell, and he's been knocked out twice himself in the UFC. Betting a flash KO pays, but it ignores that the likeliest script is Costa breaking Durden down gradually, not in five seconds.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Alessandro "Nono" Costa vs Cody "Custom Made" Durden | UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 | July 11, 2026 | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
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