September 12, 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United States
Cortes-Acosta
17-3-0
#5 HeavyweightFundación, Barahona, Dominican Republic | 34 years old
Blaydes
19-6-0
#6 HeavyweightNaperville, Illinois, USA | 35 years old
The Resume Against the Chin
Blaydes has beaten Volkov, Junior dos Santos, Overeem and Aspinall. He's also been knocked out five times. Cortes-Acosta has never been finished by anyone.
Conviction
Conviction 5 because the tool that beats Cortes-Acosta is still in Blaydes' hands, rusty as it looks. Marcos Rogerio de Lima beat this same man in 2023 with 3 takedowns and 5:01 of control while losing the strike count 82-59, and Blaydes himself banked 5:21 of control against Rizvan Kuniev fifteen months ago. That isn't a vague scenario, it's a script that has already worked and that he has run more times than any heavyweight in UFC history. What pulls me to the other side is the execution rate: 4 takedowns on 22 attempts across his last two fights, and 2:05 of control against Hokit, every second of it in round one. When the primary plan fails, Blaydes becomes a 35-year-old heavyweight trading with a man who out-produces him per minute and has never been stopped by anyone, five months after leaving a fight with a broken orbital and a broken nose. And this isn't a market read: the market is higher on the Dominican than I am.
Conviction 5 because the tool that beats Cortes-Acosta is still in Blaydes' hands, rusty as it looks. Marcos Rogerio de Lima beat this same man in 2023 with 3 takedowns and 5:01 of control while losing the strike count 82-59, and Blaydes himself banked 5:21 of control against Rizvan Kuniev fifteen months ago. That isn't a vague scenario, it's a script that has already worked and that he has run more times than any heavyweight in UFC history. What pulls me to the other side is the execution rate: 4 takedowns on 22 attempts across his last two fights, and 2:05 of control against Hokit, every second of it in round one. When the primary plan fails, Blaydes becomes a 35-year-old heavyweight trading with a man who out-produces him per minute and has never been stopped by anyone, five months after leaving a fight with a broken orbital and a broken nose. And this isn't a market read: the market is higher on the Dominican than I am.
THE DECIDING POINT
The Resume Is His. The Chin Isn't.
These two have shared a cage with three of the same men: Sergei Pavlovich, Alexander Volkov and Derrick Lewis. The ledger reads identically, 1-2 apiece. How those results happened could not look more different. Cortes-Acosta lost decisions to Pavlovich and Volkov, both full 15-minute fights, and was never put on the mat in either. Then he flattened Derrick Lewis at 3:14 of round 2 while landing at 70 percent. Blaydes beat Volkov back in 2020 with 14 takedowns over five rounds, but Lewis uppercut him out at 1:26 of round 2 and Pavlovich stopped him at 3:08 of round 1. Five of Blaydes' six career losses came by KO or TKO. None of Cortes-Acosta's three came by finish at all: all three went to the cards. Everything else in this fight hangs on one question. Can Blaydes still drag it out of the place where he's fragile? The tool exists and it's historic: 66 landed takedowns in the Octagon, the UFC heavyweight record, nearly double the 34 Cain Velasquez put up before him. The rate is 5.12 per 15 minutes. But across his last two fights it produced 4 makes on 22 attempts, and against Hokit he banked 2:05 of control time, all of it in round one.
These two have shared a cage with three of the same men: Sergei Pavlovich, Alexander Volkov and Derrick Lewis. The ledger reads identically, 1-2 apiece. How those results happened could not look more different. Cortes-Acosta lost decisions to Pavlovich and Volkov, both full 15-minute fights, and was never put on the mat in either. Then he flattened Derrick Lewis at 3:14 of round 2 while landing at 70 percent. Blaydes beat Volkov back in 2020 with 14 takedowns over five rounds, but Lewis uppercut him out at 1:26 of round 2 and Pavlovich stopped him at 3:08 of round 1. Five of Blaydes' six career losses came by KO or TKO. None of Cortes-Acosta's three came by finish at all: all three went to the cards. Everything else in this fight hangs on one question. Can Blaydes still drag it out of the place where he's fragile? The tool exists and it's historic: 66 landed takedowns in the Octagon, the UFC heavyweight record, nearly double the 34 Cain Velasquez put up before him. The rate is 5.12 per 15 minutes. But across his last two fights it produced 4 makes on 22 attempts, and against Hokit he banked 2:05 of control time, all of it in round one.
Truth A
Blaydes owns the far heavier resume. He's beaten Volkov, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem and Tom Aspinall, he fought for the interim belt, and he owns the UFC heavyweight record for takedowns landed, 66 to Cain Velasquez's 34. Cortes-Acosta has never faced anyone who can pin him to the fence like this, and he's 0-2 whenever he steps up against the real top of the rankings.
Truth B
But that takedown machine went 4-for-22 across his last two fights, and the man left standing when the plan fails is a 35-year-old heavyweight with five knockout losses on his record, five months removed from a 351-strike war that cost him a broken orbital bone and a broken nose.
Tale of the Tape
One year apart on paper, far more road on one side
Dead even
Blaydes carries a 2-inch reach edge
This is Blaydes' 22nd walk to the Octagon and the Dominican's 14th
Current Form
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
UFC 328, a de facto title eliminator. Volkov dictated from the outside, landed 43 of 44 leg kicks and won the strike count 88-54. Cortes-Acosta's accuracy slid round by round: 45, 46, then 34 percent.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 324. Landed 44 of 62 for 70 percent accuracy, scored a takedown and a knockdown, and finished with 16 of 16 ground strikes. He called Blaydes out from the cage right after.
TKO R2Stepped in on three days' notice for Spivac, three weeks after his last fight, and needed 82 seconds. Fifth appearance of his year.
KO R1Put the Croatian away at 3:59 of round one. The win that locked him into the top of the division.
KO R1Competitive into the middle rounds. He actually out-landed Pavlovich 11-9 in round one, then sank in the third, landing 14 of 46 and handing the round away. Lost without ever being seriously hurt.
Unanimous DecisionFive fights in 2025, two of them three weeks apart, and the second one taken on three days' notice to save a card in Doha. He closed the year with two first-round knockouts and opened 2026 by starching Derrick Lewis. The May loss to Volkov was clear on the cards, but he finished all 15 minutes upright and was never taken down once, and he was back in the gym fast. Now he's basically fighting at home: he lives and trains in Phoenix, and he's the one who asked for this matchup back in January, minutes after knocking out Lewis.
Curtis Blaydes
UFC 327. A heavyweight record for combined significant strikes in a three-round fight, and the third-most in any three-round UFC bout, per CBS Sports citing the UFC. The published total was 354; the UFCStats tally comes to 351, Blaydes 177 to Hokit 174. He won round one on all three cards with 2 takedowns and 2:05 of control, then never landed another takedown and lost rounds two and three. Left with a broken orbital and a broken nose.
Unanimous DecisionUgly and useful. He shot 15 takedowns and hit 2, but piled up 5:21 of control time and squeezed out the split.
Split DecisionUFC 304, the interim title rematch. It lasted 60 seconds. There wasn't even time for a first takedown entry.
KO R1The best durability evidence he owns. Almeida hit 9 takedowns and 4:39 of control in round one alone, and Blaydes flipped the whole thing at 0:36 of round two with 16 ground strikes.
TKO R2Main event. Stopped at 3:08 of round one in a straight firefight, never getting to his grappling. The same Pavlovich would go a full 15 with Cortes-Acosta two years later.
TKO R1Since 2022 he has alternated win and loss without a single exception: Aspinall, Pavlovich, Almeida, Aspinall again, Kuniev, Hokit. The last one was the hardest night of his career, a 351-strike war by the UFCStats count, 354 in the total the UFC published, a heavyweight record for a three-round fight, and he walked out of it with a broken orbital bone and a broken nose after winning round one on all three cards and dropping rounds two and three. That's five months ago, and there's an honest question about how much of that night he left behind. Blaydes himself framed his headspace going in by talking about major impostor syndrome and saying he just signed an eight-fight deal he expects to be his last.
Level of Competition
Three shared opponents, Pavlovich, Volkov and Lewis, and the same 1-2 line for each man. The road is what separates them. Blaydes owns the deeper resume, with wins over Volkov, Junior dos Santos, Overeem and Aspinall, and he's the only one of the two who has fought for a belt. Cortes-Acosta climbed faster and more recently, and he's still 0-2 whenever the opponent sits in the top three. The calibre gap is real and it favors the American. The mileage gap is just as real and runs the other way: 21 cage appearances to 13, and five knockout losses to none.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
The Dominican out-produces the American per minute, despite the wrestling reputation on the other side
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Blaydes' low number is flattened by short fights, a 9:13 average cage time. Against Hokit he absorbed 177 strikes in 15 minutes
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
5.12 against 0.40, a chasm. Blaydes' record is the raw total, 66 takedowns, the most in UFC heavyweight history; on the per-15 rate both Jailton Almeida and Cain Velasquez sit above him. It's the one stat that can decide this
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Career figure. Across his last two fights Blaydes hit 4 of 22, or 18 percent
Takedown Defense (%)
Blaydes' 35 percent is no fluke: Almeida took him down 9 times in a single round
Submissions per 15 Min
Cortes-Acosta leads in 5 categories · Blaydes leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Similar numbers, completely different machinery. Cortes-Acosta closes 53 percent of his wins by knockout, always with his hands and always on the feet, with three finishes in his last five. Blaydes sits at 68 percent by KO or TKO, but nearly all of them came from the top, ground-and-pound after the takedown: Almeida, Junior dos Santos, Abdurakhimov, Overeem. There isn't a single submission anywhere on his ledger, for or against, across 26 pro fights. That matters for the method here: both men can end it, but one needs to land standing and the other needs to put you on the mat first.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is the heart of the read. Five of Blaydes' six losses came by KO or TKO, 83 percent, and the names are Ngannou twice, Derrick Lewis, Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall. The only one that wasn't a stoppage was April's decision to Hokit, and even that cost him an orbital bone and a nose. On the other side, Cortes-Acosta has lost three times in 20 pro fights and all three went to the scorecards: de Lima in 2023, Pavlovich in 2025, Volkov in 2026. No knockout losses, no submission losses, not a single knockdown absorbed in his last five. The honest caveat is that Blaydes has only been stopped by genuinely elite punchers, and that he ate 177 significant strikes from Hokit without ever hitting the floor. His chin isn't glass. It's just further down the road than the other guy's.
Skills Profile
Cortes-Acosta
vs
Blaydes
Striking at Range
+2 Cortes-Acosta
Cortes-Acosta lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute to 4.18, and hit 70 percent accuracy on Derrick Lewis.
Knockout Power
+3 Cortes-Acosta
Nine knockouts in 17 wins, three in his last five, and a 0.70 knockdown average against Blaydes' 0.16.
Durability & Chin
+4 Cortes-Acosta
Zero submission losses and zero knockout losses in 20 fights for the Dominican, against five stoppage losses on Blaydes' ledger.
Wrestling e Domínio no Chão
+5 Blaydes
5.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and 66 landed for his career, the UFC heavyweight record. The 14 he hit on Volkov across five rounds in 2020 are the divisional single-fight record too.
Trabalho no Clinch e na Grade
+2 Blaydes
Against Hokit, Blaydes landed 60 of 73 clinch strikes. It's where he keeps working even when the takedown won't come.
Defesa de Quedas
+3 Cortes-Acosta
73 percent takedown defense, and he held Spivac to 2 of 6 with 2:25 of control across 15 minutes.
Cortes-Acosta wins nearly every category that shows up in a stand-up fight, and Blaydes wins the only one that can stop it from being a stand-up fight. That's why this isn't a sum of advantages, it's a binary question: does the takedown land or not?
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction5/10The thesis is: Waldo Cortes-Acosta wins because five of Blaydes' six career losses came by KO or TKO and he arrives five months after walking out of the Hokit war with a broken orbital bone and a broken nose, having absorbed 177 significant strikes in 15 minutes, because the tool that's supposed to prevent that exchange has stopped firing at the required rate, 4 takedowns on 22 attempts across his last two fights and just 2:05 of control time against Hokit, and because against their three shared opponents the Dominican has never been finished while the American has been knocked out twice, with the qualitative wrinkle that Cortes-Acosta trains daily in Phoenix with Tyrell Fortune, an NCAA national champion wrestler and UFC heavyweight, exactly the simulator this matchup calls for.
The thesis is: Waldo Cortes-Acosta wins because five of Blaydes' six career losses came by KO or TKO and he arrives five months after walking out of the Hokit war with a broken orbital bone and a broken nose, having absorbed 177 significant strikes in 15 minutes, because the tool that's supposed to prevent that exchange has stopped firing at the required rate, 4 takedowns on 22 attempts across his last two fights and just 2:05 of control time against Hokit, and because against their three shared opponents the Dominican has never been finished while the American has been knocked out twice, with the qualitative wrinkle that Cortes-Acosta trains daily in Phoenix with Tyrell Fortune, an NCAA national champion wrestler and UFC heavyweight, exactly the simulator this matchup calls for.
The path is Blaydes going for the takedown early, the Dominican holding the fence the way he held Spivac in June 2025 when the Moldovan hit 2 of 6 and logged 2:25 of control across 15 minutes, and the fight turning into a firefight by the middle of round two, where Cortes-Acosta lands 5.34 per minute to 4.18. It breaks down if Blaydes rediscovers the chain wrestling that produced 14 takedowns on Volkov in 2020 and clears five minutes of control across the three rounds, or if the Dominican repeats the third round he had against Pavlovich and Volkov, when his accuracy cratered to 30 and 34 percent.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Blaydes gets the Dominican to the fence and holds him there for two minutes inside round one, then the read that his wrestling is gone is simply wrong and the fight becomes the de Lima script from 2023.
- 02
If Cortes-Acosta starts eating leg kicks the way he ate them from Volkov, 43 of 44 landed, his third round becomes that third round: 34 percent accuracy and dead legs.
- 03
If Blaydes takes the firefight again instead of wrestling and still survives all 15 minutes without going down, the attrition thesis collapses and this lands in the judges' hands.
- 04
If the Dominican rushes the knockout and enters with his hands low, he hands over the exact takedown entry Blaydes has spent a career hunting.
Underdog Path
Blaydes walks him down on the first exchange, pins him to the fence, and refuses to let go. He doesn't even need the clean takedown every time, he needs the attached time, which is how he landed 60 of 73 clinch strikes on Hokit. He converts one or two takedowns a round, stacks close to five minutes of control across the three, throws just enough ground-and-pound for the judges to see it, and turns every round into a boring 10-9. By the third, the Dominican shows up with his accuracy sliding the way it slid against Pavlovich, 14 of 46, and Volkov, 17 of 50, and Blaydes closes it out 29-28.
Required Conditions
- Land the first takedown inside the opening two minutes of round one, before Cortes-Acosta finds his right hand and gets comfortable at range
- Stack close to five minutes of control time across the three rounds combined, which is what de Lima produced in 2023 at 5:01 and what Blaydes himself produced against Kuniev at 5:21. Both times it came bunched into a single round, 3:00 in de Lima's second and 3:01 in Blaydes' first, not three minutes in every round
- Refuse the open firefight in the middle of the cage, which is exactly what he accepted against Hokit and what cost him rounds two and three on all three cards
- Survive the Dominican's first clean sequence without going down, something he managed against Hokit with zero knockdowns on 177 strikes absorbed, but did not manage against Lewis, Pavlovich or Aspinall
— Precedent: Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Cortes-Acosta, April 29, 2023: 3 takedowns on 7 attempts, 5:01 of control time, and a unanimous decision despite losing the significant strike count 82-59. It's the only existing blueprint for beating this fighter, and it's precisely what Blaydes has done more times than any heavyweight in UFC history.
Verdict
Winner
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Curtis Blaydes
Blaydes, with available at the best book, because the market prices him between 38 and 39 percent and I see 45. His path has a name and a number attached: de Lima beat this same man with 3 takedowns and 5:01 of control, and Blaydes delivered 5:21 of control against Kuniev. The market is reading only the last two lines of his record. Breaks if his takedown conversion stays at the 18 percent clip of his last two fights.
- 02
Winner
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
It's the side I'm picking, but the price leaves no room. I have him at 52 percent and the line demands 66. Good thesis, bad number. If you're in, be in small, because the line is drifting toward the favorite, depending on the book, not away from him. Breaks if Blaydes lands the first takedown inside the opening two minutes.
- 03
Method
Cortes-Acosta by KO or TKO
It's the likeliest shape of a Dominican win, because once the wrestling plan stalls Blaydes becomes a stationary target for a man with nine knockouts and three finishes in his last five. Add the freshly broken orbital, which opens a doctor-stoppage route on top of the clean knockout. Only worth it if the price beats, the fair number on the 29 percent I give this outcome. Breaks if Blaydes wrestles the way he wrestled Volkov in 2020.
Most Likely Outcome
Curtis Blaydes
It looks contradictory and it isn't. I'm picking Cortes-Acosta to win, but he doesn't pay for the risk, and at the 45 percent I give Blaydes the underdog is cheap. Conviction 5 means a thin margin in both directions: this fight can turn on one takedown entry in round one or one right hand in round two, and neither side deserves size.
Stats That Matter
83%
of Blaydes' losses came by KO or TKO, five out of six
Ngannou twice, Derrick Lewis, Pavlovich and Aspinall
4 of 22
takedowns Blaydes has converted across his last two fights
An 18 percent clip against the Dominican's 73 percent takedown defense
ZERO
knockout or submission losses for Cortes-Acosta across 20 pro fights
All three of his defeats went to the cards, all of them full 15-minute fights
The Trap
Cortes-Acosta by first-round knockout
The public is going to look at 82 seconds on Gaziev, 3:59 on Delija and 3:14 on Lewis and buy an early finish at a fat number. The catch is that round one is the most organized part of Blaydes' game: he took round one on all three cards against Hokit with 2 takedowns and 2:05 of control, and the three times he's been stopped inside the opening round it was Ngannou, Pavlovich and Aspinall, three of the biggest punchers the division has produced. Against anyone who survives the first exchange, Cortes-Acosta's round-one output is his lowest of the night: 15 landed on Volkov, 11 on Pavlovich, 12 on Lewis. If the knockout comes, it comes later.
The public is going to look at 82 seconds on Gaziev, 3:59 on Delija and 3:14 on Lewis and buy an early finish at a fat number. The catch is that round one is the most organized part of Blaydes' game: he took round one on all three cards against Hokit with 2 takedowns and 2:05 of control, and the three times he's been stopped inside the opening round it was Ngannou, Pavlovich and Aspinall, three of the biggest punchers the division has produced. Against anyone who survives the first exchange, Cortes-Acosta's round-one output is his lowest of the night: 15 landed on Volkov, 11 on Pavlovich, 12 on Lewis. If the knockout comes, it comes later.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Waldo "Salsa Boy" Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis "Razor" Blaydes | Noche UFC: Silva vs Delgado | September 12, 2026 | Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United States
Unlock the full card
Add your card and every fight on the event opens right away. The first 7 days cost nothing, and you can cancel anytime.
- Every fight on the card, main event through early prelims
- Likely winner, method and conviction level on each fight
- Upcoming cards come with the same access
Pick a plan. The first 7 days cost nothing.
Card now, first charge only when the 7 days end. Cancel anytime.
By subscribing you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. See the Refund Policy.