June 20, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Collins
7-0-0
UFC DebutLos Angeles, California, USA | 26 years old
Tanzilovi
10-1-0
UFC DebutTelavi, Georgia | 28 years old
Two Undefeated Debuts
California's finisher against the Georgian wrestler who has to hold up for 15 minutes.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Who Dictates the Pace Over 15 Minutes
Both men walk in undefeated on the regional level, but the story that matters is HOW each one got here. Collins is red-hot. Both of his 2026 wins came by first-round knockout, and 4 of his 7 victories ended inside the distance. He's got pop in his hands, he brings real pressure, and he's even got a guillotine on tape for anyone who wants to grapple. Tanzilovi is the other side of the curve. His finishes, all by KO/TKO, came early in his career on the Georgian regional scene from 2018 to 2022. When the level rose, his gas tank flipped on him: his last three fights, the toughest ones, all went to decision, and the lone loss showed the crack. On the Contender Series against Josias Musasa, Tanzilovi won round one mixing strikes with timely takedowns, then got swallowed up by pressure in rounds two and three. The thing that decides this fight is simple. If Collins imposes his volume and power, the Georgian repeats the fade-late script. If Tanzilovi can get it to the mat early and steal rounds before the tank becomes a problem, a three-round fight tilts his way.
Both men walk in undefeated on the regional level, but the story that matters is HOW each one got here. Collins is red-hot. Both of his 2026 wins came by first-round knockout, and 4 of his 7 victories ended inside the distance. He's got pop in his hands, he brings real pressure, and he's even got a guillotine on tape for anyone who wants to grapple. Tanzilovi is the other side of the curve. His finishes, all by KO/TKO, came early in his career on the Georgian regional scene from 2018 to 2022. When the level rose, his gas tank flipped on him: his last three fights, the toughest ones, all went to decision, and the lone loss showed the crack. On the Contender Series against Josias Musasa, Tanzilovi won round one mixing strikes with timely takedowns, then got swallowed up by pressure in rounds two and three. The thing that decides this fight is simple. If Collins imposes his volume and power, the Georgian repeats the fade-late script. If Tanzilovi can get it to the mat early and steal rounds before the tank becomes a problem, a three-round fight tilts his way.
Truth A
Collins is the hottest finisher in this matchup — two first-round KOs in 2026 alone, the pressure of a man who comes to end it early.
Truth B
Tanzilovi owns the one tool that can neutralize that — the wrestling that won him round one against Musasa. The question is whether his gas tank holds up across three rounds this time.
Tale of the Tape
Collins is the younger man by two years
Tanzilovi has more mileage, Collins is unbeaten
Virtually identical
Collins' reach is not available in the sources
Both hit hard, but the recent power is Collins'
Current Form
Shane Collins
A1 Combat 35. Second first-round knockout of 2026. Heavy hands settling it early again.
KO R1559 Fights 120. Opened the year on fire, a knockout right in the first round.
KO R1A1 Combat 31. Title defense. Proof he can carry the three rounds when the knockout doesn't come.
Unanimous DecisionA1 Combat 28. First-round body-shot knockout in a title main event.
KO R1 (body)A1 Combat 26. The lone grappling finish on his resume, a guillotine in round two. Shows the threat isn't only on the feet.
Sub R2 (guillotine)Five fights in a little over a year, all wins, three of them by first-round knockout. Collins is a three-time A1 Combat featherweight champion out of Urijah Faber's banner and walks in with zero ring rust, at the high point of a short career. The obvious caveat: all of it came on the California regional scene against unranked opposition. The step up in level is enormous. But the activity rate and the recent power are real.
Otari Tanzilovi
Fury FC 101. A bounce-back after the Contender Series, but again by decision, without the old knockout.
Unanimous DecisionDana White's Contender Series. The biggest test of his career. Won round one mixing strikes and takedowns, then faded in rounds two and three and lost the split.
Split DecisionOctagon 39. Another one that went the distance. From here on, the early finishing gave way to decisions.
Unanimous DecisionUAE Warriors 33. One of the Georgian's last finishes, and even that one only came in round three.
TKO R3GFC 16. Peak of his early fast-knockout run on the Georgian scene, a shot that ended it in the first round.
KO R1Ten wins and one loss, but the recent picture tells a different story. His seven career finishes, all by KO/TKO, are clustered between 2018 and 2022 on the Georgian regional scene. As the level rose, the spark to end it early vanished: his last three fights all went to decision, and the Contender Series loss exposed the late-round fade under pressure. Add a layoff of more than a year since Fury FC 101 in February 2025. He brings more experience than Collins, but not better form.
Level of Competition
No common opponents, and neither man has a UFC-level resume since both are debuting. The calibre is similar and low. The subtle difference: the only real step up in this matchup belongs to Tanzilovi, against Josias Musasa on the Contender Series, and he lost it by split decision. Collins has never faced anyone at that level. That's honest uncertainty on both sides, not a clear resume edge.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Collins is a UFC debutant with no league-measured striking profile (0 is missing data, not a weakness). Tanzilovi's number comes from a single Contender Series fight.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Tanzilovi's 72% comes off a one-fight DWCS sample. Collins has no UFC data.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Tanzilovi absorbed 3.33 per minute on the Contender Series. Collins has no league-measured number.
Striking Defense (%)
56% defense for Tanzilovi off a single DWCS fight. No UFC-level number exists for Collins.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Tanzilovi shot a lot on the Contender Series (4 per 15 minutes). Collins has no measured figure here.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Only 25% of Tanzilovi's takedowns landed at DWCS (4 of 16). His wrestling is more volume than clean conversion.
Takedown Defense (%)
Neither man has a UFC-level takedown defense figure. Both zeros are missing data, not a weakness.
Collins leads in 1 categories · Tanzilovi leads in 5
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
On paper, Tanzilovi finishes more: 70 percent by KO/TKO against Collins' 57 percent. But the when matters more than the how much. The Georgian's seven finishes are clustered between 2018 and 2022 on the regional scene; in his three most recent and toughest fights, all went to decision. Collins is the inverse, with his power peaking right now: both 2026 KOs came in the first round. Neither man finishes by submission in his current phase, and Tanzilovi has never submitted anyone. For this fight's method, the read is Collins' power in close against Tanzilovi's need to win on control and volume.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Collins comes in undefeated, so there's no loss pattern to read on his side, and that's an honest unknown: nobody knows how he responds when he gets hurt for real. Tanzilovi has just one loss, a split decision to Josias Musasa on the Contender Series. A one-fight sample isn't a pattern, but the detail matters: he's never been knocked out or submitted, he's only lost on the cards, fading down the stretch. He's hard to finish, but vulnerable to dropping rounds on fatigue. That reinforces the method read: the danger for him is the decision and the pressure, not the finish.
Skills Profile
Collins
vs
Tanzilovi
Striking at Range
Even
Both prefer to strike, but with no UFC-level data it's an open read. Collins lands more often of late, Tanzilovi has equal reach and a real striking base.
Striking in Close
+2 Collins
Collins' current power up close is the standout: a body-shot knockout of Vogels and two first-round KOs in 2026.
Knockout Power
+2 Collins
Collins comes in off two first-round KOs this year. Tanzilovi's knockout power exists, but it dried up after 2022 as the level rose.
Striking Defense
Even
No UFC-level defensive numbers for either man. Neutral read, to be settled in the cage.
Grappling and Clinch
+2 Tanzilovi
Wrestling is Tanzilovi's best weapon: he mixed takedowns and strikes to win round one against Musasa. Collins has a guillotine, but the takedown game belongs to the Georgian.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+2 Collins
This is where the thesis lives. Tanzilovi faded down the stretch against Musasa. Collins has already carried a hard three-round pace, the decision over Evangelista, without his output dropping.
The profile is clear: Tanzilovi needs the fight on the mat early, where his wrestling decides things. Collins needs it to stay standing, where he can impose pressure and power, and push the fight into the late minutes where the Georgian's gas tank has already failed him. In a three-round fight, the edge in activity and recent power leans toward the Californian.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Shane Collins wins because he's the hottest finisher in the matchup, with both 2026 wins coming by first-round knockout and 4 of his 7 victories by KO/TKO; because Tanzilovi has never finished a real-calibre opponent and his three most recent and toughest fights all went to decision, with the lone loss showing he fades down the stretch under pressure; and because Collins arrives off five fights in a little over a year under Urijah Faber's A1 Combat banner, with no rust, while the Georgian walks in off a layoff of more than a year.
The thesis is: Shane Collins wins because he's the hottest finisher in the matchup, with both 2026 wins coming by first-round knockout and 4 of his 7 victories by KO/TKO; because Tanzilovi has never finished a real-calibre opponent and his three most recent and toughest fights all went to decision, with the lone loss showing he fades down the stretch under pressure; and because Collins arrives off five fights in a little over a year under Urijah Faber's A1 Combat banner, with no rust, while the Georgian walks in off a layoff of more than a year.
The path is Collins imposing pressure and power from the first minute, testing the chin, and if the knockout doesn't come, controlling range and volume to bank the decision in a three-round fight. It falls apart if Tanzilovi lands his wrestling early, gets Collins to the mat, and steals the first two rounds before his own gas tank betrays him.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because both men are UFC debutants with not a single piece of league-level data to anchor the read, and the calibre that produced both records is regional. The Collins pick comes from a real convergence of four fronts: the demonstrated current power, the style of an opponent who stopped finishing once the level rose, the activity edge, and the Faber camp. It isn't a numbers-only read: it's Tanzilovi's Contender Series fight fading at the end and his dependence on a wrestling game that may not hold 15 minutes. But the underdog's takedown path is concrete enough to keep this at medium-high, not higher.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Tanzilovi lands a takedown in the opening two minutes and controls from top: his ground game steals rounds before the gas tank becomes a problem.
- 02
Collins gets reckless hunting the knockout, leaves his neck on an entry or makes a pressure error, and the Georgian capitalizes with the technical game he showed in round one against Musasa.
- 03
It's only three rounds, not five: Tanzilovi's late fade matters less, and he can bank tight first and second rounds and take a split decision like he's lived before.
Underdog Path
Tanzilovi runs the same recipe as round one against Musasa: he mixes strikes with timely takedowns, gets Collins to the mat before the three-minute mark of round one, controls from top, and steals the round. He repeats in round two, weathers Collins' pressure over a 15-minute fight where the tank holds up better than it would over five, and closes out a split decision, exactly the kind of tight result he already knows from both sides.
Required Conditions
- Land a takedown early and establish control time before his own gas tank becomes a problem
- Avoid trading flat-footed with Collins at punching range, where the Californian's first-round power is the biggest danger
- Bank the first two rounds on the cards so the split decision stays on the table
— Precedent: His own Contender Series fight against Josias Musasa, September 2024: he won round one mixing strikes and wrestling. The challenge here is to make that first round count in a shorter fight, before the fatigue repeats the script.
Verdict
Winner
Shane Collins
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Shane Collins
The favorite is the right side here: current power, activity, and the style of an opponent who doesn't finish at the top and fades late. But it's a double debut, so it's not a play to load up on. Moderate edge, not a lock.
- 02
Method
Collins by KO/TKO
If Collins wins, the most likely shape is the knockout, following the pattern of the two first-round KOs he already delivered in 2026. Tanzilovi's chin has never been tested at UFC level and he's willing to stand and trade.
- 03
How it ends (either fighter)
The fight does NOT end by submission
Tanzilovi has zero career submission wins and has never been submitted. Collins has just one sub. The odds of a submission finish are low on both sides, so the outcome is a KO/TKO or a decision.
Most Likely Outcome
Shane Collins
It's the cleanest read in the analysis, but conviction 6 in a matchup of two debutants means a moderate stake, not a safe play. The underdog's wrestling path is real enough to keep the confidence honest.
Stats That Matter
2
first-round knockouts Collins delivered in 2026 alone (Hammons and Miller)
4 of his 7 career wins by KO/TKO
3 of 3
of Tanzilovi's most recent fights went to decision, exactly the toughest ones
His seven finishes are clustered between 2018 and 2022 on the Georgian scene
The Trap
Tanzilovi by Finish
Anyone reading the record might bet the Georgian by finish off his seven career stoppages. Careful: they're all KO/TKO, never submissions, and none came against real-calibre opposition. If you want Tanzilovi, the coherent path is a decision on control and volume, not a finish.
Anyone reading the record might bet the Georgian by finish off his seven career stoppages. Careful: they're all KO/TKO, never submissions, and none came against real-calibre opposition. If you want Tanzilovi, the coherent path is a decision on control and volume, not a finish.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Shane "Hollywood" Collins vs Otari Tanzilovi | UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi | June 20, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Read the whole card, free
Drop your email and unlock every fight's breakdown on the card. No payment, no password.
- Every fight on the card, full breakdown
- Scenarios and the model's call for each fight
- Access to upcoming cards too
By continuing you agree to receive Coliseum updates and to our Privacy Policy. Opt out anytime.