September 19, 2026 · Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, United States
Chikadze
15-6-0
UnrankedTbilisi, Georgia | 38 years old
Brito
19-5-1
UnrankedSanta Helena, Brazil | 31 years old
The Striker Who Has to Stay Standing
Chikadze is 38, riding a three-fight skid, and still the cleanest technician in the cage. Brito brings the weapon that beat him in his last trip to the scorecards: the takedown.
Conviction
Conviction 6 because Brito's path runs on things he does all the time, while Chikadze's path demands the exact thing he failed to do last time out: keep the fight standing. Onama, a 30 percent takedown shooter, went 3-for-3; Brito lands 67 percent and tried 12 against Thomson. What keeps this from climbing to 7 sits on Chikadze's side, and it's concrete. First, strength of schedule: Chikadze's recent run is Kattar, Allen, Onama and Vallejos, three of them in today's top 15, while none of Brito's last five opponents is ranked. Second, Brito defends just 43 percent of strikes and has lost decisions to two taller strikers, so one clean kick on the way in changes the night, even from a guy without a knockdown in five fights. That's why the analysis gives Brito 66 percent, below the market's roughly 75.
Conviction 6 because Brito's path runs on things he does all the time, while Chikadze's path demands the exact thing he failed to do last time out: keep the fight standing. Onama, a 30 percent takedown shooter, went 3-for-3; Brito lands 67 percent and tried 12 against Thomson. What keeps this from climbing to 7 sits on Chikadze's side, and it's concrete. First, strength of schedule: Chikadze's recent run is Kattar, Allen, Onama and Vallejos, three of them in today's top 15, while none of Brito's last five opponents is ranked. Second, Brito defends just 43 percent of strikes and has lost decisions to two taller strikers, so one clean kick on the way in changes the night, even from a guy without a knockdown in five fights. That's why the analysis gives Brito 66 percent, below the market's roughly 75.
THE DECIDING POINT
Three Takedowns, Three Attempts
The last time Giga Chikadze went the distance, the striking wasn't the problem. Against David Onama in April 2025, the Georgian kicked well, won the volume battle in round 1 and still dropped all three cards 29-28. Onama tried three takedowns and completed all three, one per round, banking 6:15 on top. The kicker: Onama lands just 30 percent of his takedown attempts for his career. Joanderson Brito is a different animal. He averages 3.23 takedowns per 15 minutes at 67 percent accuracy, 18 of 27 in the UFC, eight of them in a single fight against Isaac Thomson. And the Chikadze walking into Los Angeles is 38, on a three-fight skid, coming off the first knockout loss of his career, and wasn't allowed to fight in Las Vegas until June 24, six months after Vallejos. In his last two decisions, he landed just 11 significant strikes in round 3. What keeps this fight alive is the other side of the coin. Brito defends just 43 percent of significant strikes, dropped decisions to two taller strikers in Bill Algeo and William Gomis, and none of his last five opponents is ranked today. If Chikadze stuffs the early entries and owns the center of the cage, the body kicks that went 8-for-8 against Vallejos in round 1 start to add up. The problem: to get there, he has to do the one thing he couldn't do last time out.
The last time Giga Chikadze went the distance, the striking wasn't the problem. Against David Onama in April 2025, the Georgian kicked well, won the volume battle in round 1 and still dropped all three cards 29-28. Onama tried three takedowns and completed all three, one per round, banking 6:15 on top. The kicker: Onama lands just 30 percent of his takedown attempts for his career. Joanderson Brito is a different animal. He averages 3.23 takedowns per 15 minutes at 67 percent accuracy, 18 of 27 in the UFC, eight of them in a single fight against Isaac Thomson. And the Chikadze walking into Los Angeles is 38, on a three-fight skid, coming off the first knockout loss of his career, and wasn't allowed to fight in Las Vegas until June 24, six months after Vallejos. In his last two decisions, he landed just 11 significant strikes in round 3. What keeps this fight alive is the other side of the coin. Brito defends just 43 percent of significant strikes, dropped decisions to two taller strikers in Bill Algeo and William Gomis, and none of his last five opponents is ranked today. If Chikadze stuffs the early entries and owns the center of the cage, the body kicks that went 8-for-8 against Vallejos in round 1 start to add up. The problem: to get there, he has to do the one thing he couldn't do last time out.
Truth A
Chikadze is the more technical striker by a mile, four inches taller, 38-6 as a kickboxer, and Brito defends 43 percent of strikes with two decision losses to taller strikers.
Truth B
Onama, who lands 30 percent of his takedowns, put Chikadze down on 3 of 3 attempts in his last decision. Brito lands 67 percent and shoots far more often.
Tale of the Tape
Chikadze is seven years older and just turned 38 in August
Chikadze has four inches on him
Chikadze has a 2-inch reach edge
Current Form
Giga Chikadze
Better in round 1 behind the kicks, landing 8 of 8 to the body. In round 2, circling along the fence, he ate a spinning backfist and elbows at 1:29. The first knockout loss of his career.
KO R2Missed weight at 147 and gave up 20 percent of his purse. Kicked well early, but Onama went 3-for-3 on takedowns, one per round, and banked 6:15 of top control. 29-28 on all three cards.
Unanimous DecisionClose through two rounds, then Allen cut off the cage in round 3 and outlanded him 32 to 11 in significant strikes. 29-28 across the board in Manchester.
Unanimous DecisionReturned from a 19-month layoff and swept all three cards 30-27, edging the kickboxing exchanges 65 to 62 in significant strikes. Still his most recent win.
Unanimous DecisionFive-round main event. Kattar dropped him in round 5 and won 50-45, 50-45 and 50-44. His first UFC loss after a 7-0 start.
Unanimous DecisionThree straight losses, one win in his last five and nothing in the win column since August 2023. The latest was the worst: the first knockout loss of his 21-fight pro career, at 37, against Vallejos. After that, he couldn't fight in Las Vegas until June 24 and had to pull out of a booking with Vinicius Oliveira. He also missed weight by a pound against Onama in 2025. At 38 he's fighting roughly once a year, and his message after the knockout was simple: he'll be back. The skill is still there, as round 1 against Vallejos showed. What's slipped is everything around it: third-round output and the ability to keep the fight standing.
Joanderson Brito
Stuffed all five takedown attempts from the grappling specialist, then caught Leavitt diving at his legs with his neck exposed and sat into the ninja choke at 4:19.
Sub R1Short-notice Australian debutant. Brito had his hands full on the feet in round 1, but landed 8 of 12 takedowns and racked up 7:59 of control. 29-28 on all three cards.
Unanimous DecisionFlattened for 15 minutes: four takedowns allowed, 13:47 on his back and just three significant strikes landed. 30-26, 30-26 and 30-27. The blueprint for beating Brito.
Unanimous DecisionIn Paris. Brito landed three takedowns and 6:40 of control, but the Frenchman outlanded him 43 to 29 and took two cards 29-28. Ten of 13 media members scored it for Brito.
Split DecisionUFC 301 in Rio. Chopped away at the Welshman's legs with 22 significant leg strikes until the doctor stopped it for a shin cut at 3:35 of round 2.
TKO R2Two straight wins after back-to-back losses, and the most recent one reminded everyone why he's dangerous: he stuffed all five of Jordan Leavitt's takedown attempts and choked him out in the first round. Before that, he ground out debutant Isaac Thomson with eight takedowns. He's still at Chute Boxe under João Emilio in Bauru, Brazil, sharing rounds with Melquizael Costa. The caveat is strength of schedule: none of his last five opponents is ranked, and the two losses in that stretch show both ways to beat him, flat on his back against Sabatini and at range against Gomis.
Level of Competition
No common opponents, but they've shared two cards. In January 2022, Chikadze headlined against Kattar the same night Brito made his UFC debut in a loss to Bill Algeo. In December 2025, the Georgian got knocked out by Vallejos on the same card where Brito beat Thomson. Strength of schedule favors Chikadze: Kattar, Allen, Onama and Vallejos in his recent run, with Allen, Vallejos and Onama in today's top 15, against a debutant and four unranked veterans on Brito's side. It's not a big enough gap to flip the read, but it's the underdog's strongest argument.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Chikadze is the busier striker, but he dipped to 2.5-2.9 per minute in his last two decisions
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Brito's low number comes from all the time he spends on top
Striking Defense (%)
Brito's hole: he gets hit on the way in
Takedowns per 15 Min
The gap that decides this fight
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
Onama, a 30 percent career shooter, went 3-for-3 on Chikadze
Submissions per 15 Min
Chikadze leads in 3 categories · Brito leads in 5
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men are finishers on paper, in opposite ways. Chikadze has nine knockouts in 15 wins, but six came on the California regional scene; he has three in the UFC, and the last one was Barboza in August 2021. Brito splits eight knockouts and eight submissions, has gone to the cards just three times in 19 wins, and owns six finishes in seven UFC wins, two of them front chokes. One detail matters for the method: both of those chokes came off opponents diving at his legs, and Chikadze almost never shoots.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both men lose on the scorecards. Chikadze has been finished only twice in 21 fights: Austin Springer's rear-naked choke on the 2018 Contender Series after four takedowns, and the Vallejos knockout in December, the first of his career. His other four losses are decisions, three of them in the UFC to Kattar, Allen and Onama. Brito hasn't been finished since December 2015, and all three of his UFC losses went the distance: Algeo and Gomis on the feet, Sabatini on the mat. Small samples on both sides, but the message for the method is clear: whoever wins, the likeliest route runs through the judges.
Skills Profile
Chikadze
vs
Brito
Striking at Range
+3 Chikadze
Chikadze has four inches of height, a 38-6 kickboxing background, and lands 3.75 significant strikes per minute to Brito's 2.38.
Close-Range Striking
+1 Brito
Brito walks in swinging and hunts the fence, which is exactly where Vallejos caught Chikadze; the Georgian needs space to do his best work.
Knockout Power
+1 Chikadze
Chikadze's 0.54 knockdowns per 15 minutes beat Brito's 0.15, but he hasn't dropped anyone in five fights.
Striking Defense
+2 Chikadze
59 percent to 43: Brito gets hit on the way in, and Gomis landed 43 significant strikes on him.
Grappling & Clinch
+4 Brito
3.23 takedowns per 15 minutes at 67 percent against 0.18, and eight submission wins to one.
Cardio (3 Rounds)
+2 Brito
Chikadze landed just 11 significant strikes in round 3 against both Allen and Onama; Brito landed four takedowns in round 3 against Thomson.
Chikadze wins the fight that happens with space, in the center of the cage. Brito wins every other version of it: on the fence, in the clinch, on the mat and in round 3. The question is how many times a 38-year-old can stop the first takedown.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction6/10The thesis is: Joanderson Brito wins because he carries the exact tool that beat Chikadze the last time he went to the cards, the takedown, landing 3.23 per 15 minutes at 67 percent against a Georgian who gave up 3 of 3 to Onama, a 30 percent career shooter; because Chikadze arrives at 38 on a three-fight skid, off the first knockout of his career and a six-month stretch in which Las Vegas wouldn't let him fight; and because his output fell off a cliff in round 3 of his last two decisions, 11 significant strikes each time, while Brito landed four takedowns in round 3 against Thomson.
The thesis is: Joanderson Brito wins because he carries the exact tool that beat Chikadze the last time he went to the cards, the takedown, landing 3.23 per 15 minutes at 67 percent against a Georgian who gave up 3 of 3 to Onama, a 30 percent career shooter; because Chikadze arrives at 38 on a three-fight skid, off the first knockout of his career and a six-month stretch in which Las Vegas wouldn't let him fight; and because his output fell off a cliff in round 3 of his last two decisions, 11 significant strikes each time, while Brito landed four takedowns in round 3 against Thomson.
The path is Brito walking through the kicks in round 1, tying up on the fence, getting at least one takedown per round and banking top time, with the front choke and the back as threats in scrambles, until he takes two or three rounds on the cards. It breaks down if Chikadze stuffs the early entries in the center of the cage and punishes Brito's approach with body kicks and knees, the way he worked Vallejos in round 1, forcing Brito to strike from the outside.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Chikadze stuffs Brito's first two takedown attempts in round 1 and Brito starts striking from the outside, the fight moves to where the Georgian lands 3.75 per minute and Brito defends just 43 percent.
- 02
If a body kick or a knee catches Brito on the way in, like the kicks that went 8-for-8 to Vallejos' body in round 1, the favorite starts fighting scared to close the distance.
- 03
If Chikadze reaches round 3 still throwing at his round-1 pace, without repeating the 11-strike third rounds against Allen and Onama, the cards can break his way the way they broke for Gomis.
Underdog Path
Chikadze takes the center from the opening minute and refuses to circle along the fence, where Vallejos caught him. He uses the jab and the teep to measure Brito's entries, punishes the body with kicks the way he did in round 1 against Vallejos, and meets the entries with knees. On the shots, he widens his base and uses the fence only to get back up, never accepting bottom position. With no route to the mat, Brito has to strike from the outside, where he lands 2.38 per minute and gets hit easily, and the Georgian banks two rounds on the cards. If Brito wears himself out missing entries, the knee turns into a finish.
Required Conditions
- Stop most of Brito's takedown attempts, something he couldn't do last time out (he defended 0 of 3 against Onama)
- Hold the center and stay off the fence, where Brito ties up and where Vallejos knocked him out
- Kick the body with volume from round 1 to discourage the entries
- Hold his pace in round 3, where his output fell to 11 significant strikes in each of his last two decisions
— Precedent: William Gomis vs Brito (UFC Paris, September 2024): the taller Frenchman with a kickboxing base outlanded Brito 43 to 29 in significant strikes and won a split decision. The caveat: Gomis also won round 1 with 3:07 of top control, and 10 of 13 media members scored the fight for Brito. For the pure stand-up version, Bill Algeo outlanded Brito 59 to 40 in significant strikes in Brito's UFC debut in January 2022.
Verdict
Winner
Joanderson Brito
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Method
Brito by decision
Brito by decision because that's where his script usually ends against a guy who doesn't get finished: Chikadze has been stopped twice in 21 fights and spent 6:15 under Onama without getting tapped. The analysis puts this outcome around 40 percent, which only has value or better. The market will push the public toward the finish because of the two front chokes. Breaks down if Chikadze stuffs the takedowns and the fight stays standing.
- 02
How It Ends (Either Fighter)
Fight goes to decision
Decision because Chikadze has gone the distance in four of his last five and Brito in three of his last five, and because the Georgian's nine career knockouts haven't produced a knockdown since August 2021. The analysis puts it near 64 percent. The market tends to shade this because Brito has 16 finishes in 19 wins. Breaks down if Brito takes the back in a scramble, or if December's knockout took more out of Chikadze's chin than it looks.
- 03
Underdog Winner
Giga Chikadze
Chikadze because implies about 26 percent and his path is worth closer to 32: he's the more technical striker, four inches taller, facing an opponent who defends 43 percent of strikes and has dropped decisions to taller strikers. The market is right to weigh the age and the three-fight skid. Breaks down the first time he can't stop a takedown. Thin edge, so minimum stake.
Most Likely Outcome
Brito by decision, only or better
It's the bet that captures the whole thesis: Brito puts him down, Chikadze doesn't get finished, and the judges decide it. the moneyline charges 79 percent for a fight this analysis has at 66, so there's no value on the side. Conviction 6 calls for a small stake, and if the method line opens shorter than, the right play is to pass.
Stats That Matter
3 of 3
takedowns Onama completed on Chikadze in the Georgian's last trip to the scorecards
Onama lands 30 percent of his takedowns for his career; Brito lands 67
ZERO
knockdowns for Chikadze in his last five fights, dating back to the two he scored on Barboza in August 2021
The counter-knockout path rests on a weapon that hasn't shown up in five years
10 of 13
media members who scored Gomis vs Brito for Brito, his loss to a taller striker
Officially a split decision for the Frenchman, with Brito landing three takedowns and 6:40 of control
The Trap
Brito by submission
The public will see eight submission wins and two front chokes in the UFC, including the ninja choke in June, and hammer Brito by submission. But both of those chokes came off opponents diving at his legs, Pearce and Leavitt, and Chikadze averages 0.18 takedowns per 15 minutes. The Georgian has been submitted once in 21 fights, back in 2018, and spent 6:15 under Onama without getting tapped. The submission is a live risk, not the likeliest outcome.
The public will see eight submission wins and two front chokes in the UFC, including the ninja choke in June, and hammer Brito by submission. But both of those chokes came off opponents diving at his legs, Pearce and Leavitt, and Chikadze averages 0.18 takedowns per 15 minutes. The Georgian has been submitted once in 21 fights, back in 2018, and spent 6:15 under Onama without getting tapped. The submission is a live risk, not the likeliest outcome.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Giga "Ninja" Chikadze vs Joanderson "Tubarão" Brito | UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 | September 19, 2026 | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, United States
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