September 5, 2026 · Accor Arena, Paris, France
Charrière
21-12-1
UnrankedPoissy, France | 30 years old
Lima
14-2-0
UnrankedCoari, Brazil | 28 years old
Ten of Twelve
Ten of Charrière's 12 career losses came on the scorecards. Lima is exactly the guy who wins on the scorecards. The catch: nobody has ever beaten the Frenchman the way the Brazilian is built.
Conviction
Conviction 5, and that's not false modesty. What holds Lima up is Charrière's loss profile: 10 of 12 came on the cards, three of them Cage Warriors title fights against Soren Bak, Jordan Vucenic and Paul Hughes. That's an eight-year pattern, not a small-sample accident. What keeps the number from climbing is that the mechanism by which Lima would win hasn't been proven against this kind of opponent: he converts 27% of his takedown attempts and the Frenchman has stuffed 83% of what he's faced, and both times Charrière got outpointed in the UFC, the winner did it by landing 72 and 71 significant strikes in 15 minutes, a volume Lima has never approached. Add 14 months idle, a back injury that killed the Daniel Marcos booking in November, a 10-pound move up in weight, and an Accor Arena screaming against him. I take Lima because his path asks for fewer unlikely things, not because this fight is settled.
Conviction 5, and that's not false modesty. What holds Lima up is Charrière's loss profile: 10 of 12 came on the cards, three of them Cage Warriors title fights against Soren Bak, Jordan Vucenic and Paul Hughes. That's an eight-year pattern, not a small-sample accident. What keeps the number from climbing is that the mechanism by which Lima would win hasn't been proven against this kind of opponent: he converts 27% of his takedown attempts and the Frenchman has stuffed 83% of what he's faced, and both times Charrière got outpointed in the UFC, the winner did it by landing 72 and 71 significant strikes in 15 minutes, a volume Lima has never approached. Add 14 months idle, a back injury that killed the Daniel Marcos booking in November, a 10-pound move up in weight, and an Accor Arena screaming against him. I take Lima because his path asks for fewer unlikely things, not because this fight is settled.
THE DECIDING POINT
The Blueprint That Beats Charrière Isn't This One
The lazy read on this fight assembles fast: Charriere loses to guys who make it ugly and relentless, Lima makes it ugly and relentless, done. Except look at HOW Nathaniel Wood and Chepe Mariscal actually beat the Frenchman and the whole thing collapses. Wood won 30-27 on all three cards by landing 72 significant strikes to 42, and never completed a takedown all night. Mariscal took a split by landing 71 to 49, and completed one. In both fights, the man shooting takedowns was Charriere. The two guys who outpointed him did it in the stand-up, on pure volume, not on the mat. And volume is exactly what Lima doesn't have. His best UFC output is 55 strikes over 15 minutes against Miles Johns. Against Talbott it was 26 in 15 minutes. His career rate is 2.86 per minute to Charriere's 4.02. The Brazilian cannot win this fight the way the other two won it, because he doesn't produce that number. He has to win it on takedowns and fence work, the one department of the Frenchman's game nobody has solved: two takedowns absorbed in six UFC fights, 83% defense. And Lima's takedown accuracy is 27%. The conclusion is uncomfortable, and it's the whole reason the conviction sits low: Lima probably wins, but for a different reason than the story being sold. It isn't the archetype that breaks Charriere. It's a narrower road nobody has walked on him yet.
The lazy read on this fight assembles fast: Charriere loses to guys who make it ugly and relentless, Lima makes it ugly and relentless, done. Except look at HOW Nathaniel Wood and Chepe Mariscal actually beat the Frenchman and the whole thing collapses. Wood won 30-27 on all three cards by landing 72 significant strikes to 42, and never completed a takedown all night. Mariscal took a split by landing 71 to 49, and completed one. In both fights, the man shooting takedowns was Charriere. The two guys who outpointed him did it in the stand-up, on pure volume, not on the mat. And volume is exactly what Lima doesn't have. His best UFC output is 55 strikes over 15 minutes against Miles Johns. Against Talbott it was 26 in 15 minutes. His career rate is 2.86 per minute to Charriere's 4.02. The Brazilian cannot win this fight the way the other two won it, because he doesn't produce that number. He has to win it on takedowns and fence work, the one department of the Frenchman's game nobody has solved: two takedowns absorbed in six UFC fights, 83% defense. And Lima's takedown accuracy is 27%. The conclusion is uncomfortable, and it's the whole reason the conviction sits low: Lima probably wins, but for a different reason than the story being sold. It isn't the archetype that breaks Charriere. It's a narrower road nobody has walked on him yet.
Truth A
Lima is the better fighter. He carried 14 straight wins into the Talbott fight, he's an OKTAGON champion, he trains at Allstars, he's never been knocked out in 16 fights, and Charriere is 0-3 against the three credible men he's faced in the UFC.
Truth B
The mechanism doesn't line up. Lima's plan depends on converting takedowns at 27% against 83% defense, after 14 months off, ten pounds above the weight class he last competed in, with the entire Accor Arena against him.
Tale of the Tape
Lima is two years younger with 18 fewer pro fights of mileage
One inch to the Frenchman, who is also the naturally bigger man at the weight
Both returning from long layoffs, the Brazilian from much further out
Current Form
Morgan Charrière
Body kick to set it up, head kick to end it, 1:14 into round 1. First and only knockout loss of his career, and Costa closed 2025 a perfect 4-0.
KO R1Lost the first two rounds to the American's pressure and volume, hurt him along the fence and finished it with his hands 27 seconds into round 3. The fight that explains what he still is.
KO R330-27 on all three cards in London. Wood landed 72 significant strikes to 42, dropped him in round 1 and nearly got the guillotine. And never completed a single takedown.
Unanimous DecisionAt the Accor Arena in Paris. A BJJ black belt who got one takedown and nothing else, flattened by punches 27 seconds into round 2.
KO R271 to 49 on volume for the American, split decision. Charriere was the one shooting takedowns, landed two, and still lost the cards.
Split DecisionSix straight UFC fights alternating win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, never stringing two of either together. He's coming off nine months on the shelf after a Melquizael Costa head kick starched him, the only knockout loss of a 34-fight career, and he admitted publicly that he thought about walking away. He went to Sao Paulo alone in the first half of 2026 to find himself again, came back to train at US Metro Bizot under Johnny Frachey, and has been talking like a man with a plan. He's home, in the building where he debuted with a knockout and a bonus, and that's the most concrete thing he has going for him.
Felipe Lima
29-28 on all three cards at UFC 317. He took Talbott down and got to his back in round 1, couldn't hold it, and ended up on the wrong end of a 59-26 strike count.
Unanimous Decision30-27 across the board in Tampa. Got clipped early, settled down, and chewed up the American's lead leg with kicks the rest of the way. 55 strikes to 31 and two takedowns.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut, taken on short notice, and at featherweight. The fight was up for grabs on the cards until the rear-naked choke at 1:15 of round 3. Performance of the Night.
Sub R3Five rounds in Prague with a point docked for an illegal knee, and he still out-grappled a man with a bigger jiu-jitsu resume to take the OKTAGON bantamweight belt.
Unanimous DecisionFlying knee in 35 seconds for the inaugural Fight Club Rush title in Sweden. It's still his favorite technique on the feet.
KO R1Fourteen straight wins after dropping his pro debut at 17, and the only defeat since then is a triple 29-28 to Payton Talbott. Born in Coari, deep in the Brazilian Amazon, he lives in Stockholm and trains at Allstars Training Center, the Andreas Michael gym that built Gustafsson, Latifi and Chimaev. The issue isn't form or skill, it's the calendar: 14 months idle, with a back injury killing a booking against Daniel Marcos in November 2025. In his favor, something almost everyone forgets: he sat out 20 months between 2021 and 2023, came back, and won five rounds for the OKTAGON bantamweight belt.
Level of Competition
No shared opponents, but the paths cross tonight: Muhammad Naimov, the man Lima submitted on his UFC debut, fights Losene Keita later on this same card. And there's a filing-cabinet coincidence worth logging: Charriere already lost a unanimous decision to Salahdine Parnasse, who headlines this event, at 100% Fight 29 back in March 2017. On raw calibre the two are even and both low, neither has faced a top-15 name. The difference is qualitative, and it's the most uncomfortable data point in the analysis for the French side: the three toughest men Charriere has met in the UFC are Mariscal, Wood and Costa, and he lost to all three. Lima met Talbott, Johns and Naimov, and beat two.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
The Frenchman produces 40% more volume per minute
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
4.51 per minute is the ugliest number in the fight, and it belongs to Charriere
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
Both shoot at similar rates, for opposite reasons
Takedown Accuracy (%)
The hole in Lima's plan: six takedowns landed on 22 attempts
Takedown Defense (%)
A dead heat, and the number that decides whether the Brazilian's plan exists at all
Submissions per 15 Min
Lima's real threat once the fight hits the mat
Charrière leads in 3 categories · Lima leads in 5
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
It's an almost perfect contrast. Charriere wins 62% of the time by knockout, 13 in 21, and the detail that matters here is where they land: six in round 1, two in round 2, and five in round 3. He doesn't need a good start to get a good ending. Lima wins half his fights on the cards, 7 of 14, with the other seven split between four regional knockouts and three submissions, including the rear-naked choke over Naimov on debut. It matters enormously for method: the Frenchman needs a moment, the Brazilian needs the full 15 minutes.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is the heart of the analysis. Charriere has lost 10 of 12 times on the scorecards, 84% of the total, and three of those were Cage Warriors title fights against Soren Bak, Jordan Vucenic and Paul Hughes. He almost never gets finished: one submission loss on the 2015 regional circuit and a single knockout in 34 pro fights, the Costa head kick last December. His profile is the guy who survives and loses the verdict. On the other side, Lima has two career losses total: his pro debut at 17 to a triangle, and Talbott. Never knocked out, never even wobbled in the UFC. The practical read on method is blunt: if Charriere wins this, it has to be a knockout, because on the cards both men's histories point the same direction.
Skills Profile
Charrière
vs
Lima
Striking at Range
+2 Charrière
4.02 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy against 2.86 at 45%, with two inches of height and one of reach on the Frenchman's side.
Close-Range Striking
Even
No man's land: Charriere has knees and elbows on the fence, Lima knocked a man out with a flying knee in 35 seconds and is the more comfortable of the two in scrambles.
Knockout Power
+4 Charrière
13 knockouts in 21 wins and a 0.88 knockdown average for Charriere, against zero knockdowns for Lima in three UFC fights. It's the single biggest gap in the matchup.
Striking Defense
+2 Lima
64% defense and 2.91 strikes absorbed per minute for Lima, against 53% and 4.51 for the Frenchman. Charriere is one of the easier men in the division to hit.
Grappling & Clinch
+2 Lima
An OKTAGON champion who won the belt by out-grappling, three submissions and 0.7 attempts per 15 minutes, but 27% takedown accuracy running into 83% defense.
Cardio & Pace (3 Rounds)
+1 Lima
Lima has done five championship rounds and averages 13:45 of UFC fight time; Charriere sits at 8:30 and is nine months idle, though he's the one who found a round-3 knockout on Landwehr.
Charriere wins the moments, Lima wins the minutes. All the power in this fight sits on one side and all the durability on the other, and neither man can steal the other's department. The question is simple: do the 15 minutes arrive before the clean hand does?
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction5/10The thesis is: Felipe Lima wins because 10 of Charrière's 12 losses came by decision, an eight-year pattern that includes three Cage Warriors title fights dropped on the cards, because the durability gap is documented on both sides (Lima has never been knocked out in 16 fights and absorbed 59 significant strikes from Talbott across 15 minutes without going down, while the Frenchman was just starched 1:14 into a round by a Costa head kick), and because the resumes don't match: Charrière is 0-3 against the three toughest men he's faced in the UFC in Mariscal, Wood and Costa, while Lima is 2-1 against Talbott, Johns and Naimov.
The thesis is: Felipe Lima wins because 10 of Charrière's 12 losses came by decision, an eight-year pattern that includes three Cage Warriors title fights dropped on the cards, because the durability gap is documented on both sides (Lima has never been knocked out in 16 fights and absorbed 59 significant strikes from Talbott across 15 minutes without going down, while the Frenchman was just starched 1:14 into a round by a Costa head kick), and because the resumes don't match: Charrière is 0-3 against the three toughest men he's faced in the UFC in Mariscal, Wood and Costa, while Lima is 2-1 against Talbott, Johns and Naimov.
The path is Lima conceding the early minutes at range, closing to the fence with pressure and knees, mixing in takedown attempts to drain the Frenchman's legs, and banking rounds 2 and 3 on accumulation. It breaks down if Charrière keeps the fight standing behind that 83% takedown defense and lands clean, which is exactly what happened to Landwehr 27 seconds into round 3.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Charrière reaches the final five minutes without having hit the mat once, the accumulation thesis evaporates and this becomes the round-3 Landwehr scenario.
- 02
If Lima chooses to trade at range instead of closing distance, he loses rounds on volume: 2.86 strikes per minute doesn't win cards against 4.02.
- 03
If Charrière wobbles Lima before the end of round 1, half the thesis dies on the spot, because nobody has managed it in 16 pro fights.
- 04
If those 14 idle months show up as a gas tank problem in round 2, the fight ends there, because the Frenchman is precisely the type who gets better as the other man tires.
Underdog Path
Charrière refuses the fence and treats every Lima entry as a counter opportunity. He's already stuffed 83% of the takedowns thrown at him in the UFC, and Lima only converts 27% of his shots, so the Brazilian burns attempt after attempt and comes out of them upright, tired and open. The Frenchman builds with low kicks and body kicks, the same arsenal that broke Zecchini at this same arena in 2023, and in round 2 or 3 he lands the clean hand as Lima steps in without cover. He doesn't even have to be winning for this to happen: he was down two rounds to Landwehr and ended it 27 seconds into the third.
Required Conditions
- Refuse extended fence clinches, forcing Lima to restart every entry from the center of the cage
- Sustain his 4.02 significant strikes per minute, because Lima only absorbs 2.91 per minute and nobody has truly tested that number with real volume
- Invest in the body kick early, the weapon that stopped Zecchini in this building and the one that punishes anybody who has to get inside to work
- Arrive in round 3 with legs, which is exactly where five of his 13 career knockouts landed
— Precedent: Charrière vs Nate Landwehr, UFC Nashville, July 2025: the American won the first two rounds on pressure and volume, the Frenchman was behind on the cards, and he still hurt him along the fence and finished with punches 27 seconds into round 3.
Verdict
Winner
Felipe Lima
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner (Underdog)
Morgan Charrière
Charriere because this analysis gives him 45% and the market prices him at 38%: a dog with 13 knockouts, five of them in round 3, against a man who's been idle 14 months and is moving up a division. The market is wrong because it treats the Costa head kick as a permanent verdict on his chin and ignores that he owns the only finishing path in the fight. Breaks if Lima lands two takedowns before the end of round 1.
- 02
Winner (Favorite)
Felipe Lima
Lima is the right side of the fight at the wrong price. The verdict is his, but demands a 65.6% hit rate and the analysis only gets to 53%. That's a read, not a bet. It only becomes a bet if the line drifts toward, which is live if French money hammers Charriere during the week.
- 03
Method
Felipe Lima by decision
Lima by decision because it's far and away the likeliest ending inside the universe where he wins: half his career victories came on the cards, and Charriere has been finished exactly twice in 34 fights. The market underrates it because it looks at the Brazilian's finishing resume and pictures a rear-naked choke. Breaks if the Frenchman treats round 1 like it's the last one.
Most Likely Outcome
Morgan Charrière
The verdict is Lima, and the only bet with mathematical edge is still on the other guy. That's what happens when the fight reads 53-45 and the line reads 65-35. Small stake, zero conviction the Frenchman actually wins, just the read that a 45% chance shouldn't be. Anyone uncomfortable betting against their own prediction should simply pass this fight.
Stats That Matter
10 of 12
of Charrière's career losses came on the scorecards
84% of the total, including three Cage Warriors title fights. He survives and loses the verdict
27%
Lima's UFC takedown accuracy, against Charrière's 83% takedown defense
Six takedowns landed on 22 attempts across his three fights in the promotion
ZERO
knockout losses for Lima in 16 professional fights
And zero knockdowns absorbed in the UFC, including the 15 minutes he spent eating Talbott's offense
The Trap
Charrière by first-round knockout
This is the bet the story will push: Frenchman at home, 13 knockouts in 21 wins, opponent back from 14 months off and moving up a division. The problem is that Lima has never been knocked out in 16 pro fights, and in the UFC he's never even been wobbled. Talbott landed 59 significant strikes on him across 15 minutes and never put him down. Charriere's own file argues against the rush, too: five of his 13 knockouts came in round 3, and the most recent one, over Landwehr, arrived after two full rounds of losing. If the knockout comes, it comes late.
This is the bet the story will push: Frenchman at home, 13 knockouts in 21 wins, opponent back from 14 months off and moving up a division. The problem is that Lima has never been knocked out in 16 pro fights, and in the UFC he's never even been wobbled. Talbott landed 59 significant strikes on him across 15 minutes and never put him down. Charriere's own file argues against the rush, too: five of his 13 knockouts came in round 3, and the most recent one, over Landwehr, arrived after two full rounds of losing. If the knockout comes, it comes late.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Morgan "The Last Pirate" Charrière vs Felipe "Jungle Boy" Lima | UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | September 5, 2026 | Accor Arena, Paris, France
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