Buckley vs Malott

The key to the fight

THE DECIDING FACTOR

Who Decides Where This Fight Happens

The Buckley who shows up in Edmonton gave up a ton of control time over his last eight rounds. Usman logged 12:57; Brady 12:09, winning 30-25 on two cards. Here's the catch: Malott gets there a different way. Six of his 14 wins came by knockout and six by submission, and against Holland he landed one takedown in four.

Point is, he doesn't need to be Brady. Against Holland he dropped round 1, took round 2 on all three cards without landing a takedown and closed round 3 with a takedown and 2:01 of control. Rounds won on the margins, no steamrolling required.

On the other side, the Buckley who held Covington to one takedown in eight and flattened Thompson is still in there. The real question is whether he shows up across 25 minutes against a guy who can switch game plans every round.

Tale of the Tape

Current form

Level of competition

The lone common opponent is Kevin Holland: he stopped Buckley in round 3 in August 2020, in Buckley's UFC debut, and lost a decision to Malott in October 2025. Five years and very different career stages separate those fights, so it tells us nothing about who's better.

Recent strength of schedule favors Buckley: Brady, Usman, Covington and Thompson are a tougher run than Burns, Holland, Radtke and Giles. Neither man has a verified fight against a top-5 opponent at the time of the bout.

Stats

How they win and lose

Buckley wins with his hands: 15 knockouts in 21 wins and zero submissions. Malott splits right down the middle between knockouts and submissions, six apiece, and has only won on the cards twice, against Giles and Holland. For this fight, that means the Canadian carries a ground threat Buckley has never needed, while Buckley has one clear way to end it early.

Buckley has four knockout losses, but the last one came in December 2022 against Chris Curtis. His two most recent losses went to the cards against elite wrestlers who got him down, and he survived 25 minutes of Usman and 15 of Brady without getting stopped.

Malott has lost only twice, both stoppages: Hakeem Dawodu in 2014 and Neil Magny in 2024, the latter on ground strikes with 15 seconds left, after Magny got on top in round 3. Written reports describe the Canadian as tired by then. He has never been submitted and never lost a decision.

Skills

• 1. Range StrikingEven

  Malott landed 44 strikes at distance against Holland. Buckley won the first two rounds against Covington on all three cards, outlanding him 51 to 29 in significant strikes over those rounds, with no positional split: Covington had a takedown and 1:28 of control in round 2. The career accuracy split, 52% to 36%, mixes in clinch and ground work and doesn't isolate range. Buckley has a 3-inch reach edge.

• 2. Knockout PowerEdge: Buckley (2/5)

  15 knockouts in 21 wins, with Thompson and Covington on the list. Malott has pop too: two knockdowns on Burns.

• 3. Takedowns and Top ControlEdge: Malott (2/5)

  Malott went 4 for 6 on takedowns against Magny with 6:02 of control over the whole fight: 2 takedowns and 3:08 in round 2, then 2 more in round 3, the round he got stopped. Against Holland, 1 takedown. Buckley hasn't landed one in his last three fights.

• 4. Takedown DefenseEdge: Malott (1/5)

  Malott stuffed all 7 of Burns' shots. Buckley held Covington to one of eight but gave up 8 of 23 to Usman and Brady.

• 5. Ground Game and SubmissionsEdge: Malott (2/5)

  Six career submissions for Malott: a guillotine and an arm-triangle in the UFC, plus another guillotine on the Contender Series. Buckley has never won or lost by submission.

• 6. Five-Round CardioEdge: Buckley (1/5)

  Buckley has gone 25 minutes with Usman. Malott has never gone past 15, and written reports from CBS Sports, Cageside Press and Lowkick MMA describe him as tired in round 3 against Magny.

Malott has more tools for winning rounds: strikes, takedowns and a submission threat. Buckley has the power, the volume that won him rounds against Covington and the long-fight mileage. If it stays standing, or reaches the late rounds with Malott gassed, the fight swings Buckley's way.

Full prediction

The thesis

Malott wins a decision because he can bank rounds two ways: strikes on the feet and a takedown threat Buckley couldn't shut down in his last two fights. ## The door Buckley left open Usman and Brady landed 8 takedowns on 23 attempts and racked up more than 25 minutes of control.

Against Brady, Buckley didn't land a single significant strike on the mat. Malott doesn't need to repeat that.

A takedown in a few rounds gives the judges something to lean on, just like round 3 against Holland: takedown, 2:01 of control and a submission attempt. ## What breaks the thesis If Buckley defends the way he did against Covington, one takedown in eight, this turns into a striking match, where he's already won rounds on volume and owns 15 career knockouts.

Then there's the clock. Malott has never gone past 15 minutes and, per written reports, was tired by the end of round 3 against Magny. If he fades in round 4, Buckley gets there.

Conviction 4, the slight-preference band. Malott's main mechanism is having takedowns as an extra way to win rounds, since both men have already won UFC rounds on the feet.

Buckley's trouble with repeated takedowns showed up in back-to-back UFC fights against Usman and Brady, and Malott has already won rounds with takedowns and control: round 2 against Magny, with 2 takedowns and 3:08, and round 3 against Holland.

There are two decisive untested premises, and either one flips the winner on its own. The first is takedown access: Covington went 1 for 8 against Buckley, Usman and Brady a combined 8 for 23, and all three shot more per fight than Malott did against Magny (6) and Holland (4).

None of the Buckley fights with itemized takedown numbers here came against an opponent with the Canadian's wrestling volume and profile. The second is Malott's gas tank in rounds four and five.

He has never fought past 15 minutes, and in his only UFC loss, written reports from CBS Sports, Cageside Press and Lowkick MMA describe him as tired in round 3 against Magny, a fight he was winning on the cards. Against Burns he finished strong in round 3, but it ended there.

The strongest counterevidence is Buckley against Covington: one takedown allowed in eight, the first two rounds on all three cards and a stoppage win.

What flips the pick: if Buckley stuffs the takedowns, what's left is an even striking match where he holds the power; if Malott fades after round 3 in a fight won on the margins, the late rounds and the knockout window belong to Buckley. Either one is enough.

It sits in this band because the mechanism has been seen in a relevant context, but the pick rests on two decisive untested premises, and flipping either one flips the winner. Method stays out of the score: a decision is the likeliest outcome, with a Malott knockout as the concrete alternative.

What breaks the thesis

1. If Buckley stuffs the early takedown attempts like he did against Covington, Malott loses his round-banking plan on the mat and it becomes a striking match.
2. If Malott tires in round 4 the way reports describe him in round 3 against Magny, Buckley's power gets its window.
3. If Buckley lands the heavy shot early, those 15 knockouts outweigh any rounds Malott has banked.
4. If Malott stays purely on the feet and trades at Buckley's range, he gives up the tool that sets him apart.

The underdog's path

Buckley uses his 3-inch reach edge and sticks to his hands the way his corner wanted against Brady. He stuffs the early takedowns like he did against Covington, concedes a close round or two and banks on the Canadian fading after 15 minutes. In round four or five he lands the heavy shot on a slower Malott, or clearly wins the late rounds.

• Stuff Malott's takedowns and turn it into a striking match at his range, using the reach
• Or, if the takedowns land, stay close on the cards and find a tired Malott after round 3
• Either way, land the heavy shot or clearly win the late rounds