May 16, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
Brundage
11-9-1 (1 NC)
UnrankedChapin, South Carolina | 32 years old (fights on his birthday)
Petroski
13-5-0
UnrankedSpringfield, Pennsylvania | 34 years old
Two Wrestlers on the Brink
Brundage is 1-3-1 in his last five and fights on his birthday. Petroski has been TKO'd three times in his last five. They share three common opponents — and the most recent one (Cam Rowston) knocked both of them out.
THE X-FACTOR
Three Common Opponents. The Same Guy Knocked Both of Them Out.
Brundage and Petroski share THREE common opponents — rare for a prelim. (1) Nick Maximov beat Brundage by unanimous decision at UFC 266 (Sept 2021, Brundage's UFC debut) and got submitted by Petroski via anaconda choke at 1:16 of R1 at UFC Vegas 54 (May 2022). (2) Jacob Malkoun lost to Brundage by DQ at UFC Fight Night Fiziev vs Gamrot (Sept 2023, illegal elbow) and stopped Petroski via TKO R2 at 0:39 at UFC Atlantic City (Mar 2024). (3) The big one: Cam Rowston, an Australian who hadn't even fought in the UFC yet, knocked out BOTH men. Petroski went first — TKO R1 at 2:41 at UFC Perth (Sept 2025) on a check left hook plus ground-and-pound. Brundage went four months later — TKO R2 at 4:08 at UFC 325 (Jan 2026). Brundage lasted one round longer, but both got stopped. The two recoveries went different directions: Brundage took a short-notice fight against undefeated prospect Donte Johnson at UFC 326 (Mar 2026) and lost a split decision that even Johnson admitted left him "slightly disappointed," while Petroski has been parked since the Rowston loss in September 2025 — eight months of inactivity. The clearest statistical gap between the two: Petroski's offensive wrestling. 3.15 takedowns per 15 minutes vs Brundage's 1.88, and 86% TDD (elite) vs Brundage's 69%. But the loss column tells a different story: 4 of Petroski's 5 career losses are by KO/TKO (Jeffery LFA 93, Pereira UFC Vegas 81, Malkoun UFC Atlantic City, Rowston UFC Perth) vs Brundage's 3 of 9 (Knight DWCS, Oleksiejczuk UFC FN 216, Rowston UFC 325). Brundage pays you to bet that chin gap.
Truth A
Petroski is the more technical man on the ground. BJJ brown belt under Daniel Gracie at Renzo Gracie Philly, NCAA D2 wrestler at Kutztown, 5 submission wins in 13 career victories (38%), 1.28 submissions per 15 minutes, 3.15 takedowns per 15 minutes at 52% accuracy, and elite 86% takedown defense. He submitted Hu Yaozong via arm-triangle at UFC 267 (Oct 2021), submitted Maximov via anaconda at UFC Vegas 54 (May 2022), and has the ground chops to drown Brundage in the area where Brundage actually lives.
Truth B
Petroski's chin has three cracks in three years. Pereira knocked him out at 1:06 of R1 (Oct 2023). Malkoun knocked him out at 0:39 of R2 (Mar 2024). Rowston knocked him out at 2:41 of R1 (Sept 2025) in the Australian's UFC debut. Even Shahbazyan folded him with a body kick in R3 at UFC Atlanta (June 2025) before letting him stand up. Brundage has 6 KOs in 11 career wins (55%), and his most recent finish was a TKO at 4:45 of R1 on Julian Marquez at UFC Fight Night Kape vs Almabayev (Mar 2025) — fresh power on record.
Tale of the Tape
Brundage fights on his birthday (DOB May 16, 1994). Petroski DOB June 12, 1991.
Same height.
Petroski 1 inch longer. Minimal edge.
Petroski mixes stances and offers different angles. Brundage pure orthodox.
Marc Montoya at Factory X (wrestler-friendly, high pace) vs Daniel Gracie (7th-degree black belt) in Philly.
Current Form
Cody Brundage
Short-notice fight. Got the takedown in R1 and held top control two minutes. Johnson admitted he was "slightly disappointed" with the win.
SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)Same guy who KO'd Petroski four months earlier in Perth. Brundage lasted a round longer but got the same result.
TKO R2 (4:08)Bout was at light heavyweight (205 lbs). Tried moving up, lost a split.
SDOriginally ruled a technical loss; Georgia commission overturned to majority draw.
Majority Draw (post-appeal)Brundage's only recent finish. Marquez is a veteran with a chin already worn down.
TKO R1 (4:45)Last five: 1-3-1 (Marquez TKO R1, Abdul-Malik majority draw after appeal reversed an initial technical loss, McConico split decision at light heavyweight, Rowston TKO R2, Donte Johnson split decision on short notice with the takedown in R1). Brundage took the Donte Johnson fight on short notice at UFC 326, dragged the prospect for 1-2 rounds, and still lost a split where the judges admitted it could've gone either way. UFC record sits at 5-8-1 (1 NC). Has NEVER been knocked out in the UFC outside the William Knight KO at DWCS in Sept 2020 (pre-contract), the Oleksiejczuk KO R1 in Dec 2022, and the Rowston TKO R2 in Jan 2026. Trains at Factory X in Colorado under Marc Montoya. High school wrestler at Chapin, South Carolina (56-3 his senior year). Fights on his 32nd birthday.
Andre Petroski
Rowston's check left hook folded Petroski. Ground-and-pound ended it. Same man knocked out Brundage four months later.
TKO R1 (2:41)Petroski landed a takedown in R2 but Shahbazyan got right back up. Shahbazyan body kick folded him in R3.
UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)Offensive wrestling kept Vieira away from his ground game. Clean UD.
UD78 strikes at 72% accuracy. Dominant wrestler-grinder performance.
UDThird straight decision win in Petroski's classic profile.
UDTwo losses in a row, three of his last five ending with Petroski on the mat. Rowston KO'd him at 2:41 R1 in Perth on a check left hook + ground-and-pound (Rowston's UFC debut). Before that, Shahbazyan won by UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC Atlanta with a body kick folding Petroski in R3. Before that came three straight unanimous decision wins (Vieira Feb 2025, Budka Sept 2024, Fremd July 2024) — the classic wrestler-grinder profile. UFC record sits at 8-5. 4 of his 5 career losses are by KO/TKO (Jeffery LFA 93, Pereira UFC Vegas 81, Malkoun UFC Atlantic City, Rowston UFC Perth) and the other is a decision (Shahbazyan). Has NEVER been submitted in his pro career. Trains at Renzo Gracie Philly with Daniel Gracie (BJJ brown belt) and Marquez MMA. NCAA D2 wrestler at Kutztown. Switch stance. Eight months on the shelf.
Level of Competition
THREE common opponents — rare for a prelim. (1) Nick Maximov: Brundage lost UD at UFC 266 (Sept 2021, Brundage's UFC debut), Petroski submitted him via anaconda at 1:16 of R1 at UFC Vegas 54 (May 2022). (2) Jacob Malkoun: Brundage won by DQ at UFC Fight Night Fiziev vs Gamrot (Sept 2023, illegal elbow from Malkoun), Malkoun knocked out Petroski via TKO R2 at 0:39 at UFC Atlantic City (Mar 2024). (3) Cam Rowston: Australian rookie who knocked out BOTH. Petroski went first — TKO R1 at 2:41 at UFC Perth (Sept 2025). Brundage went four months later — TKO R2 at 4:08 at UFC 325 (Jan 2026). Brundage lasted a round longer but the result was identical. Cleanest read off the Rowston pair: Petroski's chin is the more fragile of the two right now.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Petroski slightly more active. Both wrestler-profile volume, both modest.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Identical. Wrestler striking, no pure boxer polish.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Petroski absorbs slightly less — but when he absorbs, it lands hard (4 career KO losses).
Striking Defense (%)
Practically identical. Mediocre defense for both — room for ugly exchanges.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Petroski shoots 1.7x more. Clear offensive identity.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Petroski 10 points ahead. Brundage's 42% is just 1 landed on 36 UFC attempts.
Takedown Defense (%)
KEY STAT PETROSKI. 86% TDD elite vs 69%. Biggest gap in the matchup alongside the KO-loss split.
Brundage leads in 0 categories · Petroski leads in 6
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Brundage finishes 82% of his wins inside the distance (KO + sub), wrestler-finisher profile. The 2 decisions (18%) include a DQ win over Malkoun in Sept 2023, bucketed here as a decision since it isn't a finish. Petroski's distribution is balanced: 5 submission wins (38%), 4 KOs (31%), 4 decisions (31%) — classic grappler who wins by control and opportunity. Petroski's last three UFC wins were ALL unanimous decisions (Vieira Feb 2025, Budka Sept 2024, Fremd July 2024), and Brundage's most recent win was a TKO R1 over Marquez (Mar 2025). The paths to victory point opposite ways: Brundage needs the early KO, Petroski needs the control-to-decision-or-late-sub route.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
THIS is where the Brundage value lives. Petroski has lost 80% of his fights by KO/TKO: Jeffery (LFA 93, 2020), Pereira (UFC Vegas 81, 2023), Malkoun (UFC Atlantic City, 2024), Rowston (UFC Perth, 2025). Has NEVER been submitted in his pro career, so when Petroski loses, it's almost always by knockout. Brundage's loss column is healthier: 4 decision losses (44%, loses clean cards), 2 submissions (Vieira arm-tri R2 and Nickal RNC R2 — both elite grapplers), 3 KOs (Knight DWCS pre-UFC, Oleksiejczuk UFC FN 216, Rowston UFC 325). For Brundage to get stopped, the opponent needs to land clean in the standup. Petroski's striking has produced more KOs than it has absorbed against the relevant context, but the chin pattern is undeniable.
Skills Profile
Brundage
vs
Petroski
Offensive Wrestling
+3 Petroski
Petroski 3.15 TD/15min at 52% accuracy vs Brundage 1.88 at 42%. NCAA D2 Kutztown vs Chapin SC high school. Clear identity.
Ground Game / BJJ
+4 Petroski
Petroski BJJ brown belt under Daniel Gracie, 5 submission wins in 13 (38%), 1.28 sub/15min. Brundage 3 subs in 11 wins (27%), 0.50 sub/15min, has lost 2 fights by submission (Vieira arm-tri R2 Apr 2023, Nickal RNC R2 UFC 300 Apr 2024).
Technical Striking
Even
49% accuracy on both sides, 51% vs 53% defense, identical profiles. Modest volume, no clean boxing toolkit.
KO Power
+2 Brundage
Brundage 6 KOs in 11 wins (55%), Petroski 4 KOs in 13 wins (31%). Brundage has serious pop when he connects.
Takedown Defense
+4 Petroski
Petroski 86% TDD elite vs Brundage 69%. Brundage absorbed an early takedown from Donte Johnson in R1 of UFC 326.
Chin / Durability
+2 Brundage
Petroski 4 of 5 career losses by KO/TKO (80%), three of them in the last three UFC years (Pereira 2023, Malkoun 2024, Rowston 2025). Brundage 3 KO losses in 9 (33%).
Petroski dominates where the fight lives for him (wrestling, ground game, BJJ). Brundage has the heavier hands and the slightly better chin. The key question: can Petroski impose the ground game before Brundage lands the heavy hand, or does the chin crack one more time?
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis: Andre Petroski wins because, first, he has 3.15 takedowns per 15 minutes at 52% accuracy and 86% elite TDD against a Chapin SC high school wrestler at 69% TDD.
The thesis: Andre Petroski wins because, first, he has 3.15 takedowns per 15 minutes at 52% accuracy and 86% elite TDD against a Chapin SC high school wrestler at 69% TDD.
Second, he's a BJJ brown belt under Daniel Gracie at Renzo Gracie Philly with 5 submission wins in 13 (38%) and 1.28 sub/15min, versus Brundage's 0.50 sub/15min and two career submission losses (Vieira arm-tri R2 Apr 2023, Nickal RNC R2 UFC 300 Apr 2024).
Third, on the most decisive common opponent (Nick Maximov), Petroski submitted via anaconda at 1:16 of R1 where Brundage lost a unanimous decision. Path is takedown inside the first 90 seconds of R1, top control accumulated, late submission or clean decision. Falls apart if Brundage lands the heavy hand on a chin already cracked three times in three years.
Conviction
Conviction 6 (not 7) because the fight has two genuinely competitive short paths. Wrestling/grappling/common opponent converge on Petroski (3 real dimensions), but: (1) 4 of Petroski's 5 career losses are by KO — a documented chin pattern from Pereira (2023), Malkoun (2024), Rowston (2025), three UFC cases in three years; (2) Brundage has 6 KOs in 11 wins and his last KO was recent (Marquez Mar 2025); (3) Cam Rowston (most recent common opponent) knocked out BOTH, so the transitive evidence doesn't fall in either direction; (4) it's three rounds, not five — different dynamic, one wrong moment ends the thesis; (5) Petroski has eight months on the shelf after his second TKO loss in 18 months. Market Petroski implies 68%; real estimate sits at 60% — real edge, but not dramatic.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Brundage lands the heavy hand in R1 before Petroski lands the takedown
- 02
Petroski shows rust after eight months out and folds on the first combination
- 03
Brundage's wrestling base (Chapin SC high school) stuffs the first two or three Petroski takedown attempts and the fight goes to the standup where it gets wild
- 04
Brundage shows up extra-motivated for his birthday and a career on the line (5-8-1 UFC record)
Underdog Path
Brundage has a clear path: stuff the first two Petroski takedown attempts (his 69% UFC TDD is low but not zero), open the distance, and crack the heavy hand on the documented chin. Petroski's chin has split open in three of his last five fights (Pereira, Malkoun, Rowston). Most likely path is R1 or R2 with Brundage landing a clean combo in the pocket or capitalizing on a failed Petroski takedown attempt. Brundage has 6 KOs in 11 wins, finished Marquez via TKO R1 in Mar 2025 (the last guy who stood across from him in the UFC), and fights on his own birthday with his UFC career on the line at 5-8-1.
Required Conditions
- Stuff 2+ Petroski takedown attempts in the first five minutes
- Land a clean shot on the Petroski chin before the end of R2
- Stay off the bottom of Petroski top control for more than 90 seconds at a time
- Cardio holds across 15 minutes against an offensive wrestler (Brundage average fight time is 7:28 — gas tank checks out)
— Precedent: Cam Rowston knocked out Petroski in his own UFC debut with a check left hook + ground-and-pound at 2:41 of R1. Michel Pereira KO'd him at 1:06 of R1 with an explosive combination. Jacob Malkoun stopped him at 0:39 of R2 with a phantom-punch knockdown after Petroski botched a takedown. Three different setups, same outcome. Brundage has the kind of hands that materialize those sequences, and the history shows Petroski's chin gives in multiple ways.
Verdict
Winner
Andre Petroski
Method
Decision or late submission (R2-R3)
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Andre Petroski
Real probability estimated at 60%, implies 68.5%. Market is slightly long on Petroski. Confidence is medium because the chin pattern is real, but the wrestling + BJJ + 86% elite TDD carry the thesis. Primary pick.
- 02
Winner (Underdog)
Cody Brundage
implies 36%, and my upset estimate is 38%. No real price edge — but if the "Petroski chin" read is right, the real number is closer to 42-43%. Contrarian play for anyone who trusts the chin pattern over the wrestling resume.
- 03
Method
Petroski by Decision
Petroski's last three UFC wins were ALL unanimous decisions (Vieira Feb 2025, Budka Sept 2024, Fremd July 2024). Wrestler-grinder profile that fits a 15-minute prelim. Brundage has only been finished three times in the UFC outside of his Knight DWCS KO. The line implies 33%, my real estimate is 35%.
- 04
Total Rounds
Under 2.5 rounds
Two short paths: Petroski lands an early-to-mid sub (38% of his wins are subs) or Brundage cracks the chin on the documented opening (3 UFC KO losses for Petroski in three years). Both profiles point to a finish before R3. Under 2.5 covers both finish scenarios.
Most Likely Outcome
Petroski by Decision
Combines the most likely outcome (Petroski wins) with the most likely method (his last three UFC wins were all UD). Wrestler-grinder Petroski with 86% elite TDD has a clean path to stacking minutes without forcing a finish against a Brundage who can absorb 15 minutes (average fight time 7:28, went the full 15 with McConico in Aug 2025 and Donte Johnson in Mar 2026). Solid risk-reward profile.
Stats That Matter
3
TKO losses for Petroski in the last three UFC years
Pereira (Oct 2023), Malkoun (Mar 2024), Rowston (Sept 2025). Documented chin pattern.
86%
Petroski's career TDD
Elite. 17 points clear of Brundage's 69%. Biggest single statistical gap in the matchup.
1:16
Time it took Petroski to submit Maximov (R1, anaconda choke)
Same man who beat Brundage by unanimous decision in Sept 2021. Most decisive common opponent.
Brundage's odds as the underdog on his 32nd birthday
UFC career on the line at 5-8-1. Market priced the open chin only partially.
The Trap
The Trap: Petroski by Specific Submission
The market will pay nicely on "Petroski by submission" thanks to the BJJ brown belt and the five career submission wins (38%). But Brundage's two career sub losses are to Rodolfo Vieira (ADCC-level black belt, arm-triangle when Brundage actually climbed on top of him) and Bo Nickal (NCAA Division I three-time champion, RNC R2 at UFC 300). Petroski is a good grappler but not in that class. Petroski's last three UFC wins were all UDs, not submissions. Betting Petroski by specific sub is betting against his actual recent pattern. The more likely path is a traditional unanimous decision.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski | UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa | May 16, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada