Bellato demonstrated a concrete tool against Fernandez: despite losing early boxing exchanges, he landed a short left hook and followed the knockdown with ground strikes. The written UFC recap supports that sequence, not superiority through a shared opponent. Against Bukauskas, Edwards alternated striking and clinching, was hurt twice in round two, and still pressed in round three. This supplies a real offensive countercase without proving immunity. My Bellato lean requires him to reach close range and land before Edwards separates or counters. TKO is the choice through the documented short-punch and follow-up sequence, not his career KO percentage. Bellato can also score without stopping Edwards; Edwards can win a decision through productive striking and clinching, knock him out on an entry or submit him in a favorable transition. History excludes none of those routes. Edwards has one UFC bout, at a 215-pound catchweight on short notice; size and age do not settle the uncertainty. If Edwards wins the exchanges and prevents follow-up offense, the preference reverses. One conditional Bellato submission route would be catching the neck during an entry and completing a guillotine: Edwards lost to that hold against Cleveland in 2023, and Bellato's sub avg sits at 0.23 attempts per 15 min across his UFC/DWCS aggregate. That documents a vulnerability in that episode, not proof Bellato will obtain the same position. Bellato can also be outscored if he cannot finish and Edwards produces the more effective offense; his decision loss to Stirling keeps that countercase concrete. The 5.86 absorbed strikes per minute is a historical aggregate deserving defensive scrutiny, but does not prove Bellato deliberately trades damage or that Edwards’s strikes will have the same effect.