September 12, 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United States
Belgaroui
10-3-0
UnrankedAmsterdam, Netherlands | 34 years old
Santos
11-3-0
UnrankedBelo Horizonte, Brazil | 29 years old
The Blueprint Exists. The Tool Doesn't.
Nobody has ever stopped Belgaroui in MMA. All three of his losses went to the scorecards, and only one of them has public stats: it was built on the mat. Santos has landed one takedown in five UFC attempts.
Conviction
Conviction 6 because the recipe that beats Belgaroui is on tape, it requires one specific tool, and it exists exactly once. Marco Tulio beat him on the Contender Series in 2023 with 2 takedowns on 8 attempts, 6:18 of control time to 1:25 and 10 of 13 ground strikes landed in the third round alone. The other two losses, to Ahmed Sami and Mohamad Osseili at UAE Warriors in 2022, have no public statistics and no detailed account, so there's no basis for claiming they came out of the same script. That resizes the thesis: Santos genuinely doesn't own Tulio's tool, 96% of his UFC significant strikes come at distance and he has landed one takedown in five attempts across three fights, but the sample carrying the argument is one fight, not three. And the Sami result was a split decision, meaning there is at least one night where somebody beat Belgaroui and nobody can say whether the mat was involved. The context of the week points the Dutchman's way: Santos took this on August 13 replacing Kelvin Gastelum, four months after getting choked unconscious, against a camp that was built for a different man and a different style. What pushes down is real and it's more than a footnote: Santos has never been knocked out in 14 pro fights, has never been dropped across the nine rounds he has fought in the UFC, and already beat a man with that identical 79-inch reach, Barlow, on exactly the activity count he's going to try again here. Belgaroui also has only two UFC fights, at 34, with a decade of high-level kickboxing mileage on the odometer.
Conviction 6 because the recipe that beats Belgaroui is on tape, it requires one specific tool, and it exists exactly once. Marco Tulio beat him on the Contender Series in 2023 with 2 takedowns on 8 attempts, 6:18 of control time to 1:25 and 10 of 13 ground strikes landed in the third round alone. The other two losses, to Ahmed Sami and Mohamad Osseili at UAE Warriors in 2022, have no public statistics and no detailed account, so there's no basis for claiming they came out of the same script. That resizes the thesis: Santos genuinely doesn't own Tulio's tool, 96% of his UFC significant strikes come at distance and he has landed one takedown in five attempts across three fights, but the sample carrying the argument is one fight, not three. And the Sami result was a split decision, meaning there is at least one night where somebody beat Belgaroui and nobody can say whether the mat was involved. The context of the week points the Dutchman's way: Santos took this on August 13 replacing Kelvin Gastelum, four months after getting choked unconscious, against a camp that was built for a different man and a different style. What pushes down is real and it's more than a footnote: Santos has never been knocked out in 14 pro fights, has never been dropped across the nine rounds he has fought in the UFC, and already beat a man with that identical 79-inch reach, Barlow, on exactly the activity count he's going to try again here. Belgaroui also has only two UFC fights, at 34, with a decade of high-level kickboxing mileage on the odometer.
THE DECIDING POINT
The Blueprint Exists. The Tool Doesn't.
Belgaroui has lost three MMA fights and all three went to the cards. Ahmed Sami by split decision in February 2022, Mohamad Osseili by unanimous decision that July, Marco Tulio on the Contender Series in August 2023. Nobody has ever stopped Belgaroui in MMA. But only one of those three nights has public statistics, and it's the Tulio fight: 2 takedowns on 8 attempts, 6:18 of control time to 1:25, and 10 of 13 ground strikes landed in the third round alone. The two Abu Dhabi losses have no numbers and no detailed account, so they prove he has dropped a decision before, not how he drops one. The honest caveat comes from kickboxing: Alex Pereira took their Glory series 2-1, and both of his wins were the title fights, a doctor stoppage at Glory 49 and a first-round knockout at Glory 55. Belgaroui's win came in the Glory 40 contender tournament final in 2017, with no belt on the line. The problem is that Djorden Santos is not Marco Tulio. He has landed one takedown in five attempts across his three UFC fights, 96% of his significant strikes in the Octagon come at distance, 295 of 308 landed, and the 85% takedown defense on his record exists precisely because opponents give up on wrestling him and settle for a firefight. He's a jiu-jitsu brown belt with four submissions on his ledger, but all four came between 2015 and 2017 on Brazilian regional shows, and his submission average in the Octagon is zero. Santos wants the exact fight Belgaroui wants: feet planted, hands free, 15 minutes. That's where the math turns ugly. Across his three Octagon-level fights, Belgaroui has landed 285 significant strikes and absorbed 65, with none of the three opponents clearing 25 landed on the night. Santos walks in absorbing 6.35 strikes per minute with 48% defense, giving up four inches of reach, and on a month's notice after stepping in for Kelvin Gastelum.
Belgaroui has lost three MMA fights and all three went to the cards. Ahmed Sami by split decision in February 2022, Mohamad Osseili by unanimous decision that July, Marco Tulio on the Contender Series in August 2023. Nobody has ever stopped Belgaroui in MMA. But only one of those three nights has public statistics, and it's the Tulio fight: 2 takedowns on 8 attempts, 6:18 of control time to 1:25, and 10 of 13 ground strikes landed in the third round alone. The two Abu Dhabi losses have no numbers and no detailed account, so they prove he has dropped a decision before, not how he drops one. The honest caveat comes from kickboxing: Alex Pereira took their Glory series 2-1, and both of his wins were the title fights, a doctor stoppage at Glory 49 and a first-round knockout at Glory 55. Belgaroui's win came in the Glory 40 contender tournament final in 2017, with no belt on the line. The problem is that Djorden Santos is not Marco Tulio. He has landed one takedown in five attempts across his three UFC fights, 96% of his significant strikes in the Octagon come at distance, 295 of 308 landed, and the 85% takedown defense on his record exists precisely because opponents give up on wrestling him and settle for a firefight. He's a jiu-jitsu brown belt with four submissions on his ledger, but all four came between 2015 and 2017 on Brazilian regional shows, and his submission average in the Octagon is zero. Santos wants the exact fight Belgaroui wants: feet planted, hands free, 15 minutes. That's where the math turns ugly. Across his three Octagon-level fights, Belgaroui has landed 285 significant strikes and absorbed 65, with none of the three opponents clearing 25 landed on the night. Santos walks in absorbing 6.35 strikes per minute with 48% defense, giving up four inches of reach, and on a month's notice after stepping in for Kelvin Gastelum.
Truth A
Santos has never been knocked out in 14 pro fights, has never been dropped across the nine rounds he has fought in the UFC, and already beat a 6-foot-2 fighter with the exact same 79-inch reach Belgaroui carries, Danny Barlow, on pure volume. His chin and his motor are real and they're on tape.
Truth B
But volume on its own has already failed him. Against 6-foot-4 Ozzy Diaz, Santos threw 345 significant strikes over 15 minutes and lost anyway, because he connected on 37% against Diaz's 51%. Belgaroui connects at 64%.
Tale of the Tape
Santos is 5 years younger
UFC.com and UFCStats both list 6'6" against 6'0", a six-inch gap. Sherdog disagrees on both men, 6'5" and 6'2", which cuts it to three inches. The official event tale of the tape is the UFC's.
Four inches more for Belgaroui, the same reach Barlow carried when Santos beat him
Belgaroui challenged for the Glory middleweight title twice and lost both to Alex Pereira, by doctor stoppage at Glory 49 and by first-round knockout at Glory 55. His unanimous-decision win over Pereira in April 2017 came in the Glory 40 contender tournament final, with no belt on the line.
Current Form
Yousri Belgaroui
Abdul-Malik came in unbeaten and favored. He left with 16 significant strikes landed over three rounds to Belgaroui's 94. Two knockdowns and a clinch knee at 3:39 of round 3.
TKO R3UFC debut. Bekoev landed 4 of 8 takedowns and banked 3:18 of control, and still ate 102 strikes to 24. Belgaroui went 27 of 30 in the first 55 seconds of round 3 and that was that.
TKO R3Contender Series. Lost a point in round 2 for repeated eye pokes and still stopped Iwasaki in the third. Dana White passed on the contract anyway.
TKO R3Five rounds for the Levels Fight League light heavyweight belt on home soil in the Netherlands. A rematch against the only man to beat him by split decision back in 2022.
Unanimous DecisionKnee to the body and a follow-up flurry at 4:59 of round 1. This was his first fight back after the Marco Tulio loss on the Contender Series.
TKO R1Five straight wins since the Marco Tulio loss, and three stoppages in three Octagon-level fights, every one of them in round three. Both UFC wins came as the underdog. The last one was the biggest: Mansur Abdul-Malik arrived unbeaten and favored, and left having landed 16 significant strikes across three rounds to Belgaroui's 94, with two knockdowns and a clinch knee ending it at 3:39. At 34 he's in the best form of his MMA career, and this camp was built for Kelvin Gastelum, a far harder assignment than the man who actually showed up.
Djorden Santos
UFC 328. He marked up the unbeaten prospect's face with jabs through the first 10 minutes, then wilted under the pressure. Susurkaev took the back and put him out with a rear-naked choke at 4:12 of round 3.
Sub R329-28 across all three cards against a 6-foot-2 fighter with a 79-inch reach. Santos landed 99 strikes to 93 and took over in the third, 30 to 16.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut as the favorite. He threw 345 significant strikes in 15 minutes and landed 131, and still lost to a 6-foot-4 opponent who landed 135 on 84 fewer attempts.
Unanimous DecisionContender Series. He was the underdog and swept all three rounds. Dana White grumbled about the lack of a finish, sat on it, and signed him anyway.
Unanimous DecisionFive rounds for the Thunder Fight title. The opponent switched a week out and he won on the cards anyway.
Unanimous DecisionHe's 1-2 in the UFC and coming off getting choked unconscious by Baisangur Susurkaev in May, after holding the division's most hyped unbeaten prospect off for two and a half rounds. Before that he beat Danny Barlow on the cards and dropped his debut to Ozzy Diaz as the favorite. He took this fight on August 13, replacing Gastelum, which is the signature of his whole career: he won the Thunder Fight title in a five-round main event where the opponent switched a week out, and called it the hardest night of his life. Courage isn't the issue. Prep time, this time, is.
Level of Competition
No common opponents and no ranked names on either resume, so the calibre is even on paper and the difference is what each man did with it. Belgaroui's best result is Mansur Abdul-Malik, who arrived unbeaten with no losses in the UFC and got stopped in the third. Santos's best is Danny Barlow, 29-28 across the board. Both times Santos stepped up in class, the debut against Ozzy Diaz and unbeaten Susurkaev in May, he lost. There's no resume gap to flag either way here: both men built their numbers against the same tier.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Santos produces more raw volume, but connects on 42% to Belgaroui's 64%
Striking Accuracy (%)
The number that decides the fight: 22 percentage points of connection
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
Santos eats almost three times as much per minute. It's the leakiest defensive profile Belgaroui has faced in the Octagon
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
Neither man goes to the mat by choice
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Belgaroui has tried one takedown in three fights at this level and landed it. Sample size of one
Takedown Defense (%)
Belgaroui's documented hole, and the specialty Santos doesn't use
Submissions per 15 Min
Zero and zero. Neither man has attempted a submission in the Octagon
Belgaroui leads in 4 categories · Santos leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Belgaroui is a finisher of one very specific type: 8 of his 10 wins by knockout, zero by submission, zero submission attempts across three fights at this level. He breaks people down, he doesn't choke them. Santos is the exact opposite on paper, with 4 of his 11 wins by submission, except all four came between 2015 and 2017 on Brazilian regional shows and his UFC submission average reads 0.0. In practice both men are going to fight the same fight: stand and trade. The difference is one of them lands 64% and the other lands 42%.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is where the method gets decided. Santos has never been knocked out in 14 pro fights and has never been dropped across the nine rounds he has fought in the UFC, not even when Ozzy Diaz landed 135 strikes on him over 15 minutes. His three losses are two decisions and a rear-naked choke. Belgaroui has never been stopped in MMA either: all three of his losses are decisions. Only the Marco Tulio fight has public statistics, and there Tulio banked 2 takedowns on 8 attempts and 6:18 of control time. The two Abu Dhabi losses, to Ahmed Sami and Mohamad Osseili in 2022, have no numbers attached, and the Sami one was a split decision. He was stopped twice in kickboxing, both times by Alex Pereira and both times with a belt on the line, which doesn't count against the MMA ledger but doesn't vanish from the resume either. Small samples on both sides, three losses apiece, so nothing here is law. But the message is clean: Belgaroui's likeliest route is accumulation rather than one big shot, and Santos's likeliest route is the scorecards rather than a finish.
Skills Profile
Belgaroui
vs
Santos
Striking at Range
+4 Belgaroui
79 inches against 75, and 64% connection against 48% defense. Across three Octagon-level fights Belgaroui landed 285 strikes and absorbed 65.
Close-Range Striking
+3 Belgaroui
Belgaroui went 43 of 51 in the clinch across those same three fights, and the knee that stopped Abdul-Malik came from exactly that range.
Knockout Power
+3 Belgaroui
8 KO/TKOs in 10 wins and three stoppages in three fights at this level, against 3 knockouts in Santos's 11 wins, all of them on the regional circuit.
Striking Defense
+4 Belgaroui
Belgaroui absorbs 2.17 strikes per minute with 63% defense. Santos absorbs 6.35 with 48%, and no Belgaroui opponent in the Octagon has cleared 25 landed strikes on the night.
Grappling & Ground Game
+2 Santos
Santos is a brown belt with four submissions and 85% takedown defense, while Belgaroui has been taken down 9 times on 27 attempts across his four fights at this level, which is exactly the 66% takedown defense on his record. A real edge Santos doesn't use: one takedown landed in five tries.
Cardio (3 Rounds)
+2 Belgaroui
All three of Belgaroui's stoppages at this level came in round three, where he connected at 60%, 90% and 60% and landed 26, 27 and 28 significant strikes. Santos has a 15-minute motor, but Susurkaev broke him in rounds 2 and 3.
Santos owns a real edge on the mat and he's the only one of the two with submissions on his record. He just never goes there: 96% of his UFC significant strikes come at distance, 295 of 308 landed, and he's landed one takedown in five attempts. This fight is going to happen exactly where the gap is widest.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction6/10The thesis is: Yousri Belgaroui wins because he landed 285 significant strikes to 65 absorbed across his three Octagon-level fights, at 64% accuracy against Santos's 48% striking defense, because he owns four inches of reach and the exact room Santos has to walk through, going 43 of 51 in the clinch across those same three fights, and because the one loss of his with a documented script came from a man who took him to the mat and held him there, Marco Tulio with 6:18 of control, a tool Santos doesn't use: one takedown landed in five attempts and 96% of his offense thrown at distance.
The thesis is: Yousri Belgaroui wins because he landed 285 significant strikes to 65 absorbed across his three Octagon-level fights, at 64% accuracy against Santos's 48% striking defense, because he owns four inches of reach and the exact room Santos has to walk through, going 43 of 51 in the clinch across those same three fights, and because the one loss of his with a documented script came from a man who took him to the mat and held him there, Marco Tulio with 6:18 of control, a tool Santos doesn't use: one takedown landed in five attempts and 96% of his offense thrown at distance.
The path is Belgaroui managing Santos's volume behind the jab in round one, breaking down the body and the guard in round two, and collecting in round three, which is where all three of his fights at this level have ended. It breaks down if Santos turns this into a counting contest and steals two rounds on raw activity, the way he did against Danny Barlow, or if he generates ground time he has never generated in the UFC.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Santos gets through the first 10 minutes throwing 40-plus significant strikes a round with the connection count close, the activity math that beat Barlow is working and round three becomes a scorecard decision instead of a breakdown.
- 02
If Belgaroui fights with his back to the fence instead of cutting angles, the reach stops being an advantage and becomes a stationary target. Fence work and mat time is how Marco Tulio built round one on the Contender Series, 1:54 of control in that round alone.
- 03
If Santos generates real ground time, anything past two minutes a round, then Belgaroui's 66% takedown defense has become the problem it has always been and the fight changes terrain.
- 04
If Belgaroui starts slow in the opening five minutes, at 34 and nearly six months out of competition, the underdog gets a round for free and only needs one more.
Underdog Path
Santos gets inside from the first minute, refuses to sit on the end of the jab, and turns this into a counting contest. He threw 345 significant strikes at Ozzy Diaz over 15 minutes and never hit the floor, so the plan is to dump volume until the cards get tight, accept the counters, and win rounds on activity. That's precisely what he did to Danny Barlow, who carried the same 79-inch reach, connected at a higher rate, and still lost 29-28 across the board. And there's precedent on the other side of the cage too: Ahmed Sami took a split decision off Belgaroui in February 2022. If Santos gets to round three intact, which is where Belgaroui collects, the cards decide a fight the raw numbers can leave close.
Required Conditions
- Close the distance in the first minute of every round and never let Belgaroui set the fight at his reach
- Sustain 40-plus significant strike attempts per round for all three rounds, the pace he already held against Ozzy Diaz
- Never stall in the clinch, where Belgaroui landed 43 of 51 across three fights at this level and finished Abdul-Malik with a knee
- Get to round three intact, the only round Belgaroui has used to end his three fights at this level
— Precedent: Santos vs Danny Barlow, UFC Vancouver, October 2025. Barlow stood 6-foot-2 with the same 79-inch reach Belgaroui carries, landed 93 strikes at 54% accuracy to Santos's 99 at 45%, and lost 29-28 on all three cards. It's the proof that Santos's volume beats length when the fight reaches the scorecards.
Verdict
Winner
Yousri Belgaroui
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Yousri Belgaroui
Belgaroui because he landed 285 strikes to 65 across three Octagon-level fights and Santos absorbs 6.35 per minute with 48% defense. The market isn't wrong, and that's exactly the problem: there's nothing left on the bone. A recording play, not a value play. Breaks if Santos turns this into an activity count the way he did against Barlow.
- 02
Method
Belgaroui by KO/TKO
Belgaroui by TKO because all three of his fights at this level ended in round three by accumulation, and Santos arrives absorbing more per minute than any previous Belgaroui opponent in the Octagon. The market pays better on method than on the winner at a line like this. Breaks if Santos's chin holds for 15 minutes, which it has in all 14 of his pro fights.
- 03
Rounds 2 or 3
Belgaroui wins in round 2 or 3
If the knockout comes, it comes late. Belgaroui stopped Iwasaki at 2:34 of round 3, Bekoev at 0:55 of round 3 and Abdul-Malik at 3:39 of round 3, and he has never scored a first-round knockdown in three fights at this level. The market prices an early finish off the 8 knockouts in 10 wins. Breaks if Santos rushes in and gets caught on the very first entry.
- 04
Underdog Winner
Djorden Santos
At the market is.7% and my read says 24%, so the underdog is cheap. Santos has never been stopped by strikes, already beat a man with that identical 79-inch reach on volume, and has a 15-minute motor. It's still a small stake and it isn't the main read, because his path requires surviving 15 minutes at the worst possible range. Breaks the first time he stalls in the clinch.
Most Likely Outcome
Belgaroui by KO/TKO
That's where the number lives. The winner doesn't pay for the risk, and the method concentrates the actual edge: a man who stopped his last three opponents in round three against one who absorbs 6.35 strikes per minute and took the fight on a month's notice. The honest caveat is that Santos has never been knocked out in 14 fights, so this is a moderate stake, not a house bet.
Stats That Matter
285-65
significant strikes Belgaroui has landed against what he absorbed across his three Octagon-level fights
Iwasaki, Bekoev and Abdul-Malik. Not one of the three cleared 25 landed strikes on the night.
43 of 51
Belgaroui's clinch strikes across those same three fights, 84% connection
It's the range Santos has to cross, and it's where the knee that stopped Abdul-Malik came from.
1 of 5
takedowns Santos has landed across his three UFC fights
The only Belgaroui loss with public stats was built on the mat, and 96% of Santos's UFC offense comes at distance.
The Trap
Belgaroui by first-round knockout
The public is going to see 8 knockouts in 10 wins, line and a short-notice underdog, and go chasing the early finish or use Belgaroui as a parlay anchor. Both are traps. Belgaroui has never scored a first-round knockdown across three fights at this level, and all three of his stoppages at this level came in the third round, at 2:34, 0:55 and 3:39. On the other side, Santos has never been knocked out in 14 pro fights and has never been dropped across his nine UFC rounds, not even when Ozzy Diaz landed 135 strikes on him. This is a grinding fight that probably ends late, not a blowout.
The public is going to see 8 knockouts in 10 wins, line and a short-notice underdog, and go chasing the early finish or use Belgaroui as a parlay anchor. Both are traps. Belgaroui has never scored a first-round knockdown across three fights at this level, and all three of his stoppages at this level came in the third round, at 2:34, 0:55 and 3:39. On the other side, Santos has never been knocked out in 14 pro fights and has never been dropped across his nine UFC rounds, not even when Ozzy Diaz landed 135 strikes on him. This is a grinding fight that probably ends late, not a blowout.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden "Shakur" Santos | Noche UFC: Silva vs Delgado | September 12, 2026 | Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, United States
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