September 12, 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, USA
Bahamondes
17-7-0
UnrankedSantiago, Chile | 29 years old
Salikhov
22-6-0
UnrankedBuynaksk, Dagestan | 42 years old
The Wheel Kick and the Clock
Both men built their reels on spinning knockouts. The difference: one is 29 and has never been dropped in the Octagon, the other is 42 and got flattened in 63 seconds the last time we saw him.
Conviction
Conviction 7 because the three legs of the thesis don't lean on each other and none of them is a market read. The first is output: 5.99 significant strikes per minute to 3.37, in a fight where Salikhov owns no takedown capable of forcing Bahamondes off his range. The second is durability, and it's lopsided in a way that almost never shows up this cleanly: zero knockdowns absorbed across 10 UFC fights on one side, three absorbed and three fights ended on the spot on the other, two of them inside the last five. The third is the direct precedent, Randy Brown, the only 6-foot-3 man Salikhov has faced in the Octagon, knocked him out in round one in February 2024. It doesn't go past 7 because two things pull against it: Bahamondes arrives on a two-fight skid and debuts at welterweight inside the UFC with nobody knowing how his body responds, and Salikhov proved in July 2025, against a favorite, that he can still settle it with a single shot.
Conviction 7 because the three legs of the thesis don't lean on each other and none of them is a market read. The first is output: 5.99 significant strikes per minute to 3.37, in a fight where Salikhov owns no takedown capable of forcing Bahamondes off his range. The second is durability, and it's lopsided in a way that almost never shows up this cleanly: zero knockdowns absorbed across 10 UFC fights on one side, three absorbed and three fights ended on the spot on the other, two of them inside the last five. The third is the direct precedent, Randy Brown, the only 6-foot-3 man Salikhov has faced in the Octagon, knocked him out in round one in February 2024. It doesn't go past 7 because two things pull against it: Bahamondes arrives on a two-fight skid and debuts at welterweight inside the UFC with nobody knowing how his body responds, and Salikhov proved in July 2025, against a favorite, that he can still settle it with a single shot.
THE DECIDING POINT
Only One of Them Can Still Afford a Mistake
Bahamondes and Salikhov got onto the UFC's highlight reel with the same shot: the spinning wheel kick. The Chilean starched Roosevelt Roberts with one in August 2021, the Russian shut off Song Kenan with another in November 2024. It's the kind of fight the sizzle reel sells as a flying-limbs festival. But this isn't decided by who kicks prettier. It's decided by who can still eat a mistake while trying. And there the numbers stop looking alike. Across 10 UFC fights, Bahamondes has scored five knockdowns and absorbed zero, including 15 minutes in which John Makdessi landed 124 significant strikes on him. In 24 pro fights, he has never been knocked out. Salikhov has been dropped three times in the UFC and all three ended the fight on the spot: Li Jingliang in 2022, Randy Brown in 2024, and Uros Medic in November 2025, that last one in 63 seconds. Two of those three came in his last five fights. At 42, 10 months removed from getting flattened, Salikhov still has the hand to land it. What he no longer has is room to be wrong.
Bahamondes and Salikhov got onto the UFC's highlight reel with the same shot: the spinning wheel kick. The Chilean starched Roosevelt Roberts with one in August 2021, the Russian shut off Song Kenan with another in November 2024. It's the kind of fight the sizzle reel sells as a flying-limbs festival. But this isn't decided by who kicks prettier. It's decided by who can still eat a mistake while trying. And there the numbers stop looking alike. Across 10 UFC fights, Bahamondes has scored five knockdowns and absorbed zero, including 15 minutes in which John Makdessi landed 124 significant strikes on him. In 24 pro fights, he has never been knocked out. Salikhov has been dropped three times in the UFC and all three ended the fight on the spot: Li Jingliang in 2022, Randy Brown in 2024, and Uros Medic in November 2025, that last one in 63 seconds. Two of those three came in his last five fights. At 42, 10 months removed from getting flattened, Salikhov still has the hand to land it. What he no longer has is room to be wrong.
Truth A
Salikhov is the most dangerous one-shot opponent Bahamondes has ever shared a cage with. At 41 he drew a favored Carlos Leal and settled it with a counter right hook at 42 seconds, walking off before the follow-up. And Bahamondes eats 4.07 significant strikes per minute behind 55% defense. He gives you a window all night long.
Truth B
Giving up a window and getting finished are different things. Nobody has dropped Bahamondes with a strike across 24 pro fights. And to win on the cards, Salikhov would have to out-produce a man landing 5.99 significant strikes per minute to his 3.37, with five and a half inches of reach on him and no takedown in the toolbox to change that range.
Tale of the Tape
A 13-year gap, the widest on the card
Four inches for the Chilean
Five and a half inches of reach for Bahamondes
Fourteen UFC fights for the Russian, 10 for the Chilean
Current Form
Ignacio Bahamondes
Won round 1 on two of three cards and even scored a knockdown. Then he got taken down three times and lost the last two rounds, with one judge handing out a 10-8 in round 2.
Unanimous DecisionIn Baku, in Fiziev's building. Swept 30-27 across the board, taken down four times, out-landed 62-50 in significant strikes.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 313. Locked up a triangle at 2:29 of round one and got the tap. His threat off his back is real, not decoration.
Sub R1Noche UFC 2024. Dropped the Mexican twice and finished with punches at 4:02, punishing him every time he over-extended.
TKO R1Clean head kick at 3:34 of round one, in his return from a brutal stretch away from the sport.
KO R1Two straight losses, and it's worth checking who they came. Fiziev is a former top-10 lightweight who fought at home in Baku. Musayev is a former RIZIN Grand Prix champion. Both followed the identical script: Bahamondes starts well on the feet and loses once the other guy closes and takes him down, four takedowns for Fiziev, three for Musayev. Against Musayev he still won round one on two of three cards and scored a knockdown before the fight turned. Now he moves to welterweight, the division he started his career in and won at on the Contender Series, with a far smaller cut behind him.
Muslim Salikhov
Head kick, body kick, then a left hand that dropped him. Medic swarmed and the referee waved it at 1:03. Salikhov never got to settle in.
TKO R1At 41, against a favorite. Counter right hook at 42 seconds and he walked off without throwing another shot.
KO R1Spinning wheel kick at 3:49 of round one. The shot that became his signature.
KO R1Went the full 15 with a former top-10 welterweight and took the split. At 40, his three-round gas tank was still there.
Split DecisionThe only 6-foot-3 opponent he has faced in the Octagon. Brown put together a boxing sequence at 3:17 of round one and that was that.
KO R1Before Medic he was riding three straight wins, two of his last three by first-round knockout, including that 42-second hook on Carlos Leal at 41 years old. This is not a shot fighter, and anybody who treats him like one gets hurt. But the freshest image is him out cold in 63 seconds, and now it's 10 months on the shelf at 42. The hand still kills. The question is how many mistakes he can still make before somebody collects.
Level of Competition
No common opponents, and there couldn't be: Bahamondes has spent all 10 of his UFC fights at lightweight, Salikhov all 14 of his at welterweight. Recent calibre is close and neither man has faced a top-five opponent inside the UFC. What can be cross-referenced is archetype, and there is a data point: the only 6-foot-3 opponent Salikhov has faced in the Octagon was Randy Brown, in February 2024, and he got knocked out in round one. That's one fight, not a pattern, but it's the closest read this matchup has.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
The number this fight runs on: Bahamondes produces 78% more per minute
Striking Accuracy (%)
Strikes Absorbed per Minute
The Chilean is far easier to hit, and that's where the upset lives
Striking Defense (%)
Takedowns per 15 Min
Neither man lives here, and the Russian hits on just 32% of his attempts
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Takedown Defense (%)
Basically identical, and it's the number that stops Salikhov running the blueprint that beats Bahamondes
Submissions per 15 Min
Two UFC submissions for the Chilean against zero attempts for the Russian
Bahamondes leads in 2 categories · Salikhov leads in 6
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both of these guys are real finishers: 13 of Bahamondes' 17 wins and 17 of Salikhov's 22 ended before the cards. The difference is where the danger lives. The Russian is a one-shot man, with two of his last three wins by first-round knockout. The Chilean is more varied: punches, head kicks, spinning kicks, plus two UFC submissions including the triangle that made Jalin Turner tap in 2025. Three of Bahamondes' last five fights ended in round one, all with his hand raised. If this ends early, it almost certainly ends on a strike.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
This is where the fight gets settled on paper. In 24 pro fights, Bahamondes has never been knocked out, not once. His two submission losses came on the regional circuit in 2016 and 2017, when he was 18 and 19 years old. The documented way to beat him is on the scorecards, five of seven losses by decision, and the script never changes: the opponent closes and puts him on the mat, three takedowns for Klein, four for Fiziev, three for Musayev. On the other side, half of Salikhov's losses came by strikes, and two of those three land inside his last five fights. Which raises the practical question: does Salikhov own the takedown that runs the blueprint against Bahamondes? He lands 1.07 per 15 minutes at 32% accuracy and has never done it to a 6-foot-3 man. He does not.
Skills Profile
Bahamondes
vs
Salikhov
Striking at Range
+4 Bahamondes
Five and a half inches of reach and 5.99 significant strikes per minute against 3.37. Salikhov has no way to contest that range.
Close-Range Striking
+2 Salikhov
Up close the Russian is more economical and more accurate at 49%, and that's where the right hook that ended Leal in 42 seconds comes from.
Knockout Power
+1 Salikhov
15 knockouts in 22 wins for Salikhov against 11 in 17 for the Chilean, and the Russian has been cracking actual welterweights for nine years.
Resistência a Golpe
+5 Bahamondes
Zero knockdowns absorbed in 10 UFC fights against three for the Russian, and all three of those ended the fight right there.
Grappling & Clinch
+1 Bahamondes
Takedown defense is nearly identical at 70% to 72%, but the Chilean has two UFC submissions and 0.6 attempts per 15 minutes against 0.0 for Salikhov.
Cardio & Pace (3 Rounds)
+3 Bahamondes
29 years old against 42, and 10:50 of average fight time against 9:02. The Russian can go 15 minutes, he just can't go 15 minutes at a high pace.
Salikhov wins on accuracy and on single-shot impact, and that never stops being dangerous. Bahamondes wins on everything that accumulates: reach, output per minute, age, and the ability to absorb a mistake. If this becomes a 15-minute argument, there's no argument. If it becomes a one-second argument, there is.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
Conviction7/10The thesis is: Ignacio Bahamondes wins because he carries five and a half inches of reach and lands 5.99 significant strikes per minute to Salikhov's 3.37, which turns this into 15 minutes of range the Russian has no output to contest, because the only documented way to beat Bahamondes is to close and ground him and Salikhov lands 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes at 32% accuracy, and because the durability gap is asymmetric in a way you rarely see, zero knockdowns absorbed in 10 UFC fights on one side against three on the other, all three of which ended the fight on the spot.
The thesis is: Ignacio Bahamondes wins because he carries five and a half inches of reach and lands 5.99 significant strikes per minute to Salikhov's 3.37, which turns this into 15 minutes of range the Russian has no output to contest, because the only documented way to beat Bahamondes is to close and ground him and Salikhov lands 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes at 32% accuracy, and because the durability gap is asymmetric in a way you rarely see, zero knockdowns absorbed in 10 UFC fights on one side against three on the other, all three of which ended the fight on the spot.
The path is Bahamondes making Salikhov work on the end of the jab and the leg kick in round one, forcing him to come forward to produce anything, and then opening the volume from round two until the Russian stops moving. It breaks down if the Chilean comes out chin-up hunting a quick knockout and buys the counter right hook that ended Carlos Leal in 42 seconds.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Bahamondes opens hunting the knockout and throwing spinning kicks in round one, he hands over the exact window Salikhov used to flatten Leal at 42 seconds.
- 02
If Salikhov can back the Chilean onto the fence and pin him there, the volume disappears and the fight becomes a short-range counter exchange, which is the Russian's turf.
- 03
If Bahamondes' body responds badly to welterweight, his first time in the division inside the UFC, and he shows up slower instead of stronger, the output gap shrinks fast.
- 04
If Salikhov demonstrates in round one that 42 years and 10 months off cost him nothing in reaction speed, the age-and-rust discount holding up this thesis stops existing.
Underdog Path
Salikhov gives ground from the opening bell, concedes the center of the cage, and contests no volume at all in round one. He lets Bahamondes load up on spinning kicks and head kicks, which is exactly when the Chilean turns his hip and opens the lane for a right hand, and waits for the moment to plant his feet and come over the top with the hook, the same way he did to Carlos Leal. If he lands it clean he doesn't need a follow-up: Bahamondes goes down, the Russian goes with him, the referee waves. If it hasn't landed by the middle of round two, the plan is dead, because he has no output to win a card against 5.99 strikes per minute.
Required Conditions
- Refuse the volume contest in round one: throw little, let the Chilean come, work exclusively off the counter
- Bait Bahamondes into spinning and head kicks, which is when he turns sideways and leaves the right-hand lane open
- Land clean before the 10-minute mark, because past that the age and output gaps decide it by themselves
- Stay off the fence, where Nicolas Dalby turned him into a heavy bag for 15 straight minutes in June 2023
— Precedent: Salikhov vs Carlos Leal, UFC Abu Dhabi, July 2025: Leal was the favorite and the 41-year-old Russian settled it with a counter right hook at 42 seconds. The other side of that coin matters to the number too: Bahamondes has never been dropped by a strike in 24 pro fights, and that's the exact final step this scenario requires.
Verdict
Winner
Ignacio Bahamondes
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Method
Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO
Bahamondes by knockout because half of Salikhov's losses came by strikes and two of those three sit inside his last five fights, with the Russian arriving at 42 and 10 months removed from being flattened in 63 seconds. The market is wrong because it prices the winner but pays far better on the likeliest way that actually happens. Breaks if Salikhov backs up and turns this into 15 minutes of patient counter work, which is how he beat Ponzinibbio and Zaleski on the cards.
- 02
How It Ends (Either Fighter)
Fight does NOT go to decision
Inside the distance because 13 of Bahamondes' 17 wins and 17 of Salikhov's 22 ended before the horn, and four of the Russian's last five fights finished in round one, including both of the ones where he was the man getting flattened. The market is wrong because it reads the Chilean's three-decision stretch without checking who those decisions came against. Breaks if Salikhov shifts into survival mode and Bahamondes settles for managing his lead from the outside.
- 03
Winner
Ignacio Bahamondes
It's the right side, and that's all it is. The market has already charged for everything this analysis sees, and the line opened on announcement day, so the money has already moved 200 points this way. The market isn't wrong here. Breaks in the most expensive way available, on one shot from a 42-year-old.
- 04
Underdog Winner
Muslim Salikhov
Salikhov implies 20% and this analysis puts him at 29%, so the price is technically live and it's honest to say so. The market is wrong because it treats 42 years old as though the hand went with it, and it didn't. Breaks because the final step this scenario needs, dropping Bahamondes with a strike, has never happened in 24 pro fights, which makes it a small-stake value play and not a pick.
Most Likely Outcome
Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO
It's the single likeliest outcome in this matchup and the only market with a decent price, since the moneyline leaves nothing on the table. Salikhov gets hurt by fighters who produce volume and he's been stopped by strikes three times. Moderate stake, because his escape hatch is a single shot and he showed 14 months ago that he can still land it.
Stats That Matter
ZERO
knockdowns Bahamondes has absorbed across 10 UFC fights
Five scored, none taken, not even in the 15 minutes John Makdessi landed 124 significant strikes on him
3 of 3
knockdowns Salikhov has absorbed in the UFC that ended the fight on the spot
Li Jingliang in 2022, Randy Brown in 2024 and Uros Medic in 2025, the last two inside his five most recent fights
78%
more significant strikes per minute for Bahamondes: 5.99 to 3.37
And there's no takedown in Salikhov's kit to change that range, just 1.07 per 15 minutes at 32% accuracy
The Trap
Bahamondes to win in round one
The public is going to look at Salikhov getting flattened in 63 seconds by Medic, look at Bahamondes' three first-round finishes since 2024, and hammer the round-one market. It's a trap. The man who produced the 63-second version of Salikhov blitzed him from the opening bell, and Bahamondes isn't that: he builds, measures, works behind the jab and the kicks. The Russian has gone to the cards with Ponzinibbio, Dalby, Trinaldo, Zaleski and Staropoli. If the knockout comes, it's far likelier to arrive in round two or three, after accumulation, than in the opening five minutes.
The public is going to look at Salikhov getting flattened in 63 seconds by Medic, look at Bahamondes' three first-round finishes since 2024, and hammer the round-one market. It's a trap. The man who produced the 63-second version of Salikhov blitzed him from the opening bell, and Bahamondes isn't that: he builds, measures, works behind the jab and the kicks. The Russian has gone to the cards with Ponzinibbio, Dalby, Trinaldo, Zaleski and Staropoli. If the knockout comes, it's far likelier to arrive in round two or three, after accumulation, than in the opening five minutes.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Ignacio "La Jaula" Bahamondes vs Muslim "King of Kung Fu" Salikhov | Noche UFC: Silva vs Delgado | September 12, 2026 | Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, USA
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