UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer • Lightweight (155 lbs) • 3 Rounds
March 28, 2026
Bahamondes
17-6-0
N/R Peso-LeveMusayev
22-6-0
N/R Peso-LeveStatistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes Per Minute
Bahamondes has superior significant strike volume per minute. Both are aggressive on the feet, but Bahamondes maintains a more consistent pace across rounds.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Nearly identical accuracy. Neither is a sniper, but both land heavy when they connect.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Musayev absorbed a huge volume of strikes in his only UFC fight against Orolbai. Bahamondes is not the most defensive either, but absorbs less proportionally.
Strike Defense (%)
Bahamondes has significantly better defense. Musayev at only 40% showed concerning defensive vulnerability in his UFC debut.
Takedowns Per 15 Min
Neither is an offensive grappler. Bahamondes attempts occasional takedowns, but this fight will be decided primarily on the feet.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Bahamondes converts half his attempts when he decides to go to the ground. Musayev attempted no takedowns in his UFC fight.
Takedown Defense (%)
Bahamondes has decent takedown defense at 73%. Musayev at 50% is more vulnerable if taken down, as evidenced by the kimura loss to Orolbai.
Bahamondes leads in 6 categories · Musayev leads in 1
Tale of the Tape
8-year age gap. Bahamondes is in his physical prime while Musayev, at 36, needs to prove he still has the explosiveness that made him Rizin Grand Prix champion.
Massive 5-inch advantage for Bahamondes. At 6'3" for a lightweight, he is enormous and makes it very difficult for Musayev to close distance.
Nearly 4 inches more reach for Bahamondes. He can keep Musayev at distance with jabs and long kicks, forcing the Azerbaijani to cross a danger zone to connect.
Both orthodox. Mirrored fight with no angular advantage.
Bahamondes trains in Chile with a striking focus. Musayev comes from the Azerbaijani system rooted in traditional martial arts (karate, pankration, kung-fu).
Fight History
Faced one of the best strikers in the division and lost by decision. Showed he belongs at this level, but could not overcome Fiziev's technique over three rounds.
Unanimous DecisionSurprised everyone by submitting Turner with a triangle in round one. Third consecutive Performance of the Night bonus, showing versatility beyond striking.
Sub R1 (triangle)Devastating first-round knockout. Second consecutive Performance of the Night bonus.
TKO R1Brutal head kick that went viral. First of three consecutive Performance of the Night bonuses that built his hype.
KO R1 (head kick)Frustrating decision loss. Showed that when he cannot get the quick finish, he may struggle in fights that go the distance.
Unanimous DecisionUFC debut ended in a quick first-round kimura loss. Exposed defensive grappling fragility that is concerning.
Sub R1 (kimura)Lightning 27-second knockout in Bellator. The kind of explosive power that made him famous in Asian organizations.
KO R1 (27 seconds)Triangle loss in the Rizin lightweight title fight. Second pattern of submission vulnerability.
Sub R1 (triangle)Historic win in the Rizin Grand Prix final against a Bellator veteran. Fought with a broken hand in round two and still won on the scorecards.
Unanimous DecisionRizin Grand Prix semifinal. Dropped Case early in the round and finished with ground strikes.
TKO R1Skills Profile
Stand-up Striking
BahamondesBahamondes combines enormous reach with lethal long-range kicks, including head kicks that went viral. Musayev has pure knockout power in his hands, but needs to get to close range to be effective, which is difficult against someone who is 6'3".
Knockout Power
MusayevMusayev has 18 KOs in 22 wins, an absurd 82% knockout rate. Bahamondes has 11 KOs in 17 wins (65%). Both are dangerous, but Musayev carries otherworldly power in his hands.
Defensive Grappling
BahamondesBahamondes has 73% takedown defense and has shown the ability to submit opponents (triangle on Turner). Musayev was submitted by kimura (Orolbai) and triangle (De Souza), revealing serious ground vulnerability.
Cardio & Pace
BahamondesBahamondes can maintain pace for three rounds, as shown against Fiziev. Musayev is a first-round explosion fighter: 18 of his 22 knockouts came in round one. If the fight extends, his pace drops.
Distance Management
BahamondesWith a 5-inch height advantage and nearly 4 inches of reach, Bahamondes can control distance with jabs and long kicks. Musayev needs to close that distance to be effective, and that is the key to the fight.
High-Level Experience
EvenBahamondes has 9 UFC fights (6-3) and faced Fiziev and Turner. Musayev was Rizin Grand Prix champion and fought in Bellator, but has only one UFC fight (a loss). Different experiences but both tested at a competitive level.
The fight comes down to one question: can Musayev close the distance against Bahamondes' enormous reach? If yes, Azerbaijani power can end anyone. If not, Bahamondes will pick him apart with kicks and long shots. Grappling is the wild card: Bahamondes can surprise with submissions, while Musayev has been submitted twice in his career and showed clear ground fragility.
Win Distribution
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Two natural finishers who rarely let fights go to the judges. Bahamondes has 65% KO/TKO wins and recently added submissions to his arsenal (triangle on Turner). Musayev is even more explosive: 82% of his 22 wins ended by knockout, with only 2 decisions in his entire career. The difference is that Bahamondes showed he can go the distance against Fiziev, while Musayev is almost exclusively a first-round fighter. If neither knocks the other out in the first few minutes, the fight strongly favors the Chilean.
Final Prediction
Vencedor Previsto
Bahamondes
TKO R2 or Unanimous Decision|Confidence MEDIUM
Bahamondes enters as the betting favorite and the reasons are clear. The physical advantage is enormous: 5 inches of height and nearly 4 inches of reach create a structural problem for Musayev, who needs to get to close range to use his knockout power. Bahamondes is also in his prime at 28, coming off three first-round finishes before the Fiziev loss, with four Performance of the Night bonuses. Musayev, at 36 and coming off a submission loss in his UFC debut, needs to prove he belongs at this level. Most likely scenario: Bahamondes controls distance in round one with kicks and long jabs, and finds the opening for a TKO in round two when Musayev starts forcing entries predictably. If Musayev survives the first two rounds, the fight likely goes to decision with Bahamondes dominating the scorecards on volume.
X-Factor
Musayev's knockout power in the first 3 minutes
Musayev has 18 career knockouts and most came in round one. If he lands clean in the opening minutes, nothing else matters. Bahamondes has been knocked out before and is not known for impenetrable defense. A single close-range exchange could flip the entire logic of the fight.
Upset Alert
Musayev in Grand Prix mode
Musayev won the Rizin Grand Prix beating three fighters in one night, including the final with a broken hand. When he is 100% motivated and backed against the wall (like now, needing his first UFC win), he is capable of extraordinary performances. If he enters determined to trade from the first second and does not let Bahamondes establish distance, the upset is completely viable.
UFC NEWS HUB - Preliminary Analysis
Bahamondes vs Musayev | UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer | Lightweight (155 lbs)