June 27, 2026 · National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
Almabayev
23-3-0
#8 FlyweightAlmaty, Kazakhstan | 32 years old
Johnson
19-8-0
#14 FlyweightSt. Louis, USA | 35 years old
The Steamroller vs. the Length
Almabayev takes you down, controls, and hunts the rear-naked choke. Johnson is two inches taller, lives on volume, and has never been submitted. It comes down to who imposes the terrain.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
Who Picks Where the Fight Happens
This is a pure style puzzle. Asu Almabayev is a takedown steamroller: 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes, chain wrestling, and suffocating control time. Against C.J. Vergara he attempted 14 takedowns, landed 9, and racked up over nine and a half minutes of top control. Ten of his 23 wins came by submission, almost always the rear-naked choke. His plan never changes: get it to the mat, stabilize, climb to the back. Charles Johnson is the opposite problem. Two inches taller, five inches of reach, a switching stance, and 4.77 significant strikes per minute, more than double Almabayev's 2.31. He works behind the jab, the front kick to the body, and constant movement, with 69% takedown defense and a frame that's hard to keep pinned. The detail that matters: Johnson has never been submitted in his career, and seven of his eight losses came by decision. He doesn't get put away, he gets outpointed. The whole fight hinges on one question, whether the American's length and volume hold up against the Kazakh's takedown rate over 15 minutes, or whether Almabayev gets him to the fence, finishes his entries, and turns this into a control game.
This is a pure style puzzle. Asu Almabayev is a takedown steamroller: 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes, chain wrestling, and suffocating control time. Against C.J. Vergara he attempted 14 takedowns, landed 9, and racked up over nine and a half minutes of top control. Ten of his 23 wins came by submission, almost always the rear-naked choke. His plan never changes: get it to the mat, stabilize, climb to the back. Charles Johnson is the opposite problem. Two inches taller, five inches of reach, a switching stance, and 4.77 significant strikes per minute, more than double Almabayev's 2.31. He works behind the jab, the front kick to the body, and constant movement, with 69% takedown defense and a frame that's hard to keep pinned. The detail that matters: Johnson has never been submitted in his career, and seven of his eight losses came by decision. He doesn't get put away, he gets outpointed. The whole fight hinges on one question, whether the American's length and volume hold up against the Kazakh's takedown rate over 15 minutes, or whether Almabayev gets him to the fence, finishes his entries, and turns this into a control game.
Truth A
Johnson is the bigger, longer man with far more volume on the feet. If the fight stays at range, he lands twice as many strikes and his 69% takedown defense muddies the entries. The guys who do put him down usually can't keep him there.
Truth B
Almabayev doesn't take you down once, he takes you down all night. 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and chain wrestling break down takedown defense through sheer accumulation. And Johnson loses exactly this way, to control and volume on the cards, the way Temirov beat him.
Tale of the Tape
Johnson is 3 years older
Johnson is 5 inches taller, a clear frame advantage
Johnson has a 5-inch reach edge
Current Form
Asu Almabayev
Took the back and locked the rear-naked choke at 22 seconds of round 3. A clean finish, proof the ground game is still sharp against a former title challenger.
Sub R3Controlled on the mat and won the cards without trouble. The standard model: takedown, control, comfortable decision.
Unanimous DecisionHeld up for two rounds but was stopped in the third by one of the division's heaviest hitters. His only recent loss, and it came from raw power, not technique.
TKO R3Beat a former ranked contender on the cards, controlling the pace with takedowns and ground pressure. A real resume win.
Unanimous DecisionAnother decision built on wrestling, dominating most of the time on the ground.
Unanimous DecisionBack to winning, and back to finishing. After stumbling against Kape, who's another tier of power at flyweight, Almabayev regrouped: he beat Ochoa on the cards and took Alex Perez's back for a lightning rear-naked choke at 22 seconds of round three. Six wins in his last seven UFC bouts, all from the same mold, takedown, control, pressure. His style doesn't run on inspiration, it runs on repetition. And Johnson is exactly the kind of opponent he's dismantled before: a rangy striker without the wrestling to fire back.
Charles Johnson
Tight split decision over a dangerous opponent. Won on volume and movement, but took it to the wire.
Split DecisionUFC 324. Stopped in the first round by one of the division's heaviest hitters. The only recent loss that didn't go to the cards.
TKO R1Violent second-round knockout off a punching combination. Earned Performance of the Night and showed the power he carries at range.
KO R2Outpointed by a wrestler who controlled the pace and won the cards. The blueprint to beat Johnson: control and volume, never trade.
Unanimous DecisionClear decision over a tough opponent, winning behind the jab, volume, and movement over three rounds.
Unanimous DecisionUp and down, but always live. Johnson is coming off a tight split decision over Bruno Silva, after getting stopped by Alex Perez in the first round, the only recent time he was put away on the feet. The career pattern is clear: when he loses, he loses on the cards, almost never finished. He's a tough 8-6 UFC veteran, a three-time LFA champion, and the man who knocked out current champ Joshua Van back in 2024. His historical problem is exactly Almabayev's archetype: the wrestler who controls and won't let him let his hands go.
Level of Competition
Almabayev climbed fast in the UFC with six wins in seven fights, beating ranked names like Matheus Nicolau and former challenger Alex Perez, with his only loss coming to No. 2 Manel Kape. Johnson is the classic gatekeeper: 8-6 in the UFC, trading wins and losses against the lower half of the ranking, but with the credential of having knocked out current champ Joshua Van in 2024. Almabayev brings slightly higher calibre on his recent run, Johnson has the brighter single name on the resume.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Johnson produces more than double the standing volume
Precisão de Strikes (%)
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Johnson absorbs far more, the sign of a trading style
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Takedowns por 15 Min
The number that defines Almabayev's game plan
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
Johnson's defense is good, but he'll need it on all night
Submissões por 15 Min
Almabayev leads in 5 categories · Johnson leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
These two win in opposite ways. Almabayev is the ground finisher: 10 of his 23 wins by submission, almost always the rear-naked choke after taking the back, plus 10 decisions built on control. Almost nothing comes by knockout. Johnson is the striker: 8 of his 19 wins by KO, including the knockout of current champ Joshua Van, splitting the rest between 8 decisions and 3 submissions. It matters for the method: Almabayev wants the floor to finish or score, Johnson wants the distance to land.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profile is the heart of this analysis. Johnson almost never gets put away: 7 of his 8 losses came by decision, and the only stoppage was the TKO to Alex Perez, one of the division's heaviest hitters. He has never been submitted in his career, which is huge against a rear-naked-choke specialist like Almabayev. The blueprint to beat Johnson lives on the cards, in control and volume, exactly what Temirov did. Almabayev, meanwhile, has lost just three times: twice by knockout (the most recent to Kape's power) and once by decision. He has never been submitted either. The practical read: the submission the public will want to bet is the least likely path, because Johnson has never tapped. If Almabayev wins, the cleanest route is control and a decision.
Skills Profile
Almabayev
vs
Johnson
Striking em Distância
+2 Johnson
Johnson is longer and throws more than double the volume, 4.77 to 2.31 strikes per minute. At range he dictates with the jab and the front kick.
Striking em Curta Distância
+1 Johnson
Both prefer other things up close, but Johnson has more hand power and more trading experience. Almabayev uses the clinch to close in and hunt the takedown.
Poder de Nocaute
+2 Johnson
Johnson has 8 KOs in 19 wins and knocked out current champ Joshua Van. Almabayev almost never stops anyone with strikes, just 3 KOs in his career.
Defesa de Striking
Even
Similar defense on the feet, 54% to 55%. But Johnson absorbs twice the strikes per minute, the mark of a guy who accepts trades to impose volume.
Grappling e Clinch
+4 Almabayev
Here's the chasm. Almabayev lands 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and finishes with the rear-naked choke. Johnson has good takedown defense, 69%, but he'll have to hold it against a takedown rate that never stops.
Cardio (3 rounds)
+1 Almabayev
Both can go three hard rounds, but Johnson is 3 years older and Almabayev keeps his pressure pace from first bell to last.
Johnson wins almost everything on the feet: length, volume, and power. Almabayev owns the ground by a huge margin. This fight is a battle for terrain, and whoever imposes his own wins. Johnson's 69% takedown defense is good, but the test is whether it holds up against 4.46 entries a round without giving up position.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Asu Almabayev wins because his wrestling is Johnson's structural nightmare, with 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and ground control that already produced over nine minutes of top time against Vergara, because Johnson's history points the way, seven of his eight losses by decision to the man who controls him and takes his volume, exactly what Temirov did, and because the Kazakh's recent calibre is higher, with wins over Nicolau and Perez while Johnson trades wins and losses at the bottom of the ranking.
The thesis is: Asu Almabayev wins because his wrestling is Johnson's structural nightmare, with 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and ground control that already produced over nine minutes of top time against Vergara, because Johnson's history points the way, seven of his eight losses by decision to the man who controls him and takes his volume, exactly what Temirov did, and because the Kazakh's recent calibre is higher, with wins over Nicolau and Perez while Johnson trades wins and losses at the bottom of the ranking.
The path is Almabayev getting him to the fence early, finishing his entries even against the 69% takedown defense through accumulation, stacking control time, and building a clear lead on the cards round by round. It breaks down if Johnson uses his 5-inch reach edge and 4.77 strikes per minute to keep the distance, stuff the entries on the feet, and outpoint the Kazakh over 15 minutes.
Conviction
Conviction 6, no higher, because the thesis leans on four distinct dimensions (style, stats, momentum, and level of competition), but the underdog path is concrete: Johnson is the bigger man with more than double the standing volume and 69% takedown defense, and he loses almost always on the cards, never put away, never submitted. What holds the conviction at 6 instead of dropping it to 5 is the grappling chasm, a gap of 4 in the skills profile, and the fact that Johnson loses to exactly this controlling-wrestler archetype. This isn't a market read: the edge comes from the takedown game and Johnson's loss history, not from the line.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Johnson defends the early takedowns on the fence and keeps the fight standing in round 1, he imposes the volume and the length, and the ground-control thesis never happens.
- 02
If Almabayev burns energy chasing takedowns he doesn't finish and fades, he opens the distance for Johnson to outpoint him in the second and third rounds.
- 03
If Johnson reverses quickly every time he hits the mat, without ceding control time, the Kazakh loses his main scoring route and the fight becomes a standing battle, the American's turf.
- 04
If Johnson's hand power shows up in a trading window, the way it did against Van and Kavanagh, he has the knockout to end it outright, and Almabayev has already been stopped by strikes twice.
Underdog Path
Johnson uses his 5-inch reach edge to control the distance with the jab and the front kick to the body, keeps lateral movement so he's never square to the takedown entries, defends Almabayev's first shots on the fence, and answers with volume, 4.77 strikes per minute to 2.31. If he turns this into a range fight and makes the Kazakh burn energy chasing takedowns that don't land, the American builds a standing lead on the cards and manages the three rounds.
Required Conditions
- Keep the distance with the jab and the front kick, never letting Almabayev get to the fence to chain his entries
- Defend the first wave of takedowns and pop back up fast when taken down, without ceding control time
- Outpoint with volume at range, banking enough strikes to win the rounds where the fight stays standing
- Hold up to the Kazakh's pressure pace over three full rounds, without fading and opening the entries late
— Precedent: Johnson's own knockouts of Joshua Van (2024) and Lone'er Kavanagh (2025) show what happens when he controls the distance and lets his hands go: the length and the volume hurt. The risk is that the archetype that beat him (Temirov, by control and cards) is exactly Almabayev's.
Verdict
Winner
Asu Almabayev
Method
Unanimous Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Asu Almabayev
Almabayev because his wrestling is Johnson's structural nightmare, and Johnson loses 7 of 8 to control and the cards. The market already sees it, so there's no fat edge, it's a moderate-stake play. Breaks if Johnson defends the takedowns and outpoints him at range.
- 02
Método
Almabayev by decision
Decision because it's the cleanest path: Johnson has never been submitted in his career and half of Almabayev's recent wins come on the cards via control. The choke is possible, but the history points to points. Breaks if Almabayev takes the back the way he did against Perez.
- 03
Rounds 2 ou 3
Fight goes past 1.5 rounds (over)
Over because both men usually go long: 3 of the last 5 for Johnson and Almabayev went the distance, and the American is durable and has never been finished early. Honest value in a control fight. Breaks if Johnson's power lands in an early trade.
- 04
Vencedor azarão
Johnson by decision
Johnson by decision because it's the cleanest way the underdog wins: length and volume at range, defending the takedowns, the way he beat Su Mudaerji. The market underrates his size and his 69% takedown defense. Breaks if Almabayev gets to the fence and turns it into a control game.
Most Likely Outcome
Asu Almabayev, moderate stake
It's the soundest read in the analysis, the grappling chasm is real and Johnson loses to exactly this archetype. But conviction 6 means don't size it up: the American's length, volume, and takedown defense keep this well short of a safe bet.
Stats That Matter
4.46
Almabayev's takedowns per 15 minutes, against Johnson's 0.51
The engine of the whole fight, he takes you down all night, not just once
7 of 8
of Johnson's losses came by decision, almost never put away
The way to beat him is control and volume on the cards, not a finish
NEVER
Charles Johnson has been submitted in his career
That's why the likeliest method is a decision, not Almabayev's rear-naked choke
The Trap
Almabayev by submission
The public will look at Almabayev's 10 submissions and the rear-naked choke over Perez and bet the Kazakh by submission. But Charles Johnson has never been submitted in 27 pro fights, he's big, long, and good at getting back to his feet. The finish is possible, but it's the least likely route. If Almabayev wins, the far cleaner path is control and a decision, the way he beat Nicolau and Ochoa.
The public will look at Almabayev's 10 submissions and the rear-naked choke over Perez and bet the Kazakh by submission. But Charles Johnson has never been submitted in 27 pro fights, he's big, long, and good at getting back to his feet. The finish is possible, but it's the least likely route. If Almabayev wins, the far cleaner path is control and a decision, the way he beat Nicolau and Ochoa.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Asu "Zulfikar" Almabayev vs Charles "InnerG" Johnson | UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres | June 27, 2026 | National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
Read the whole card, free
Drop your email and unlock every fight's breakdown on the card. No payment, no password.
- Every fight on the card, full breakdown
- Scenarios and the model's call for each fight
- Access to upcoming cards too
By continuing you agree to receive Coliseum updates and to our Privacy Policy. Opt out anytime.