Allen vs Duncan

The key to the fight

THE KEY FACTOR

58% Takedown Defense vs. One of the Best Ground Games in the Division

Allen is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the middleweight division. Fourteen career submissions, six of them by rear-naked choke in the UFC, against names like Andre Muniz (an elite BJJ black belt himself), Paul Craig, and Krzysztof Jotko.

His 1.06 submission attempts per 15 minutes is a rare number in the division. When he takes the back, the fight ends. Duncan is one of the most spectacular strikers in the middleweight division outside the top five.

Spinning back elbow on Anders, spinning backfist on Tulio, flying knee on Melan for the Cage Warriors title. Ten knockouts in 15 wins.

On top of that, he carries a 79-inch reach (four inches more than Allen), switches stances, and has shown he can score for the decision when he needs. ## The number that matters The stat that defines this fight isn't the SLpM or the knockout power.

It's Duncan's 58% takedown defense against Allen's 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes. That's not enough against an elite grappler over five rounds. Duncan has never faced anyone with this kind of jiu-jitsu. But wait.

Allen's two recent losses came through different paths: Imavov used reach to keep him at distance, Hernandez controlled on the ground. In both cases, Allen couldn't impose his game. Duncan has the tools to replicate the Imavov blueprint.

The question is whether 58% takedown defense holds up for 25 minutes against someone who built an entire career on the clinch and the mat.

Tale of the Tape

Current form

Level of competition

Allen has the deeper resume, with 34 pro fights to Duncan's 17. In the UFC, Allen holds wins over Vettori (former title challenger), de Ridder (#4 at fight time, former ONE champion), Muniz, and Holland. Duncan's best scalp is the Cannonier decision.

Allen has faced tougher competition overall: his loss to Imavov was against the #4 ranked middleweight, while the Hernandez loss came against #13. Duncan has yet to face anyone in the top five.

Stats

How they win and lose

Allen is the quintessential submission artist: 14 of his 27 wins by submission (52%), with the rear-naked choke as his signature weapon. Add six knockouts and seven decisions. The profile is clear: he wants the mat and he finishes.

Duncan is the opposite: 10 knockouts in 15 wins (67%), with just one submission and four decisions. The Brit wins with strikes, especially spectacular spinning attacks. For the method here: Allen needs the ground, Duncan needs to keep it standing.

Allen has lost seven times: four by decision, two by knockout, and one by submission. His two KO losses came to Strickland (2020) and Curtis (2021), both early in his UFC tenure. The submission loss was a rear-naked choke from Trevin Giles at Legacy FC 52, in March 2016.

His recent losses are all by decision, to fighters who used range or wrestling to control the fight. Duncan has only lost twice, both by decision, to Petrosyan and Rodrigues. He has never been knocked out or submitted in his professional career.

That matters: Allen's primary weapon is the submission, and Duncan has never been submitted. But he's never been submitted because he's never faced a grappler at this level.

Skills

• 1. Long-Range StrikingEdge: Duncan (2/5)

  Duncan has a four-inch reach edge, switches stances, and lands 4.45 SLpM to Allen's 3.75. He's more accurate (58% vs 52%) and harder to hit (54% defense vs 48%).

• 2. Close-Range StrikingEdge: Allen (1/5)

  At close range, Allen uses the clinch to transition to the ground. Duncan has power but prefers to keep distance.

• 3. Knockout PowerEdge: Duncan (1/5)

  Duncan averages 0.43 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Allen's 0.27, with 10 KOs in 15 wins. More impact power.

• 4. Grappling and GroundEdge: Allen (4/5)

  Allen has 14 career submissions, a BJJ black belt, and 1.06 sub attempts per 15 minutes. Duncan has zero sub attempts in the UFC and 58% takedown defense.

• 5. Offensive WrestlingEdge: Allen (2/5)

  Allen averages 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes and works the clinch against the cage. Duncan averages 0.43 and is primarily a striker.

• 6. Cardio (5 rounds)Edge: Allen (2/5)

  Allen has already gone the full 25 minutes: he headlined UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Curtis 2 in April 2024, winning by split decision (48-47, 47-48, 49-46) over five rounds. Duncan has never fought a five-round bout in his professional career; this is his first UFC main event and his first fight scheduled for five rounds.

This is a classic style clash. Allen dominates on the ground with one of the highest submission rates in the middleweight division. Duncan dominates on the feet with reach, volume, and spectacular knockouts. The fight is decided by Allen's ability to close distance and get to the ground, against Duncan's ability to keep range and score from the outside.

Full prediction

The thesis

Allen wins because the ground is where this fight gets decided, and on the ground he's one of the best in the division. Fourteen career submissions, six rear-naked chokes in the UFC alone, and 1.06 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Duncan has never faced a grappler at this level.

Based on their fight profiles, his 58% takedown defense was built against opponents who are not primarily elite grapplers (Cannonier, Dolidze, Anders, Pulyaev).

Based on what they've shown in their bouts, none of them profile like a BJJ black belt averaging 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes who builds position from the clinch against the cage.

Dolidze has a sambo background, but he doesn't operate as an offensive grappler in the UFC. ## Where the fight turns Allen doesn't need a clean shot.

He works from the clinch against the fence, uses pressure to pin his opponent, and once he gets to the mat the sequence is predictable: control, back take, rear-naked choke. He did it to Muniz, Craig, Jotko, and Bruno Silva.

Vettori managed to keep it standing, with 69% takedown defense compared to Duncan's 58%. ## What if the submission doesn't come? Allen has six career KOs (22% of his wins) and seven decisions (26%). The de Ridder TKO in round four came via accumulated ground-and-pound until the corner stopped it.

If Allen controls on the mat but Duncan survives the choke, the natural path is ground-and-pound to a TKO or riding control time to a decision. His last two UFC wins (Shahbazyan and Vettori) were both unanimous decisions, mixing grappling with enough volume on the feet.

Decision via control is the second most likely outcome. What works against the pick is that Allen absorbs 3.78 significant strikes per minute across all positions (distance, clinch, and ground) with 48% striking defense. Duncan's 79-inch reach and stance-switching are real problems at range.

If the Brit uses distance to score from the outside and doesn't let Allen close, the fight goes to the scorecards on the striker's terms. Imavov did exactly that in Paris.

Allen's engine is the mat: 14 career submissions, six rear-naked chokes in the UFC, 1.52 takedowns and 1.06 sub attempts per 15 minutes. He's imposed that on Muniz, Craig and Jotko, and ground down de Ridder until the corner stopped it after round 4. Duncan's 58% takedown defense says the door is open.

The decisive untested premise is that defense under real pressure. The 58% was built against opponents who aren't primarily elite grapplers, none of them at Allen's level. If Duncan keeps it standing, the pick falls apart.

Allen's 3.78 strikes absorbed per minute (48% defense) cover every position, so they don't measure the range battle on their own. Strongest counterevidence: Imavov beat Allen in 2024 with reach and volume, and Duncan brings four more inches of reach, switches stances and just beat Cannonier with volume and kicks.

That's context, not a lock: after Imavov, Allen outpointed Vettori with part of that fight on the feet. Add Duncan's first five-round fight, an execution question. That makes this a clear but contestable lean: the main mechanism has pertinent evidence, and the premise of Duncan's takedown defense stays open.

What flips it is Duncan stuffing the takedowns, getting up fast and holding range for five rounds.

What breaks the thesis

1. If Duncan uses his four-inch reach edge and stance-switching to keep distance for five rounds, scoring from the outside the way Imavov did in Paris, Allen never gets to the ground and loses on the cards.
2. If Duncan defends Allen's takedowns above 65% and gets up quickly when taken down, the grappling advantage doesn't convert into submission position.
3. If Allen rushes the takedown and absorbs too many strikes on the way in, Duncan's power (0.43 knockdowns per 15 minutes) could capitalize with a finish.
4. If the fight stays entirely on the feet and Allen can't get the clinch against the fence, his striking defense (48%, 3.78 absorbed per minute across all positions) is exposed against a striker with Duncan's volume and reach.

The underdog's path

Duncan uses his four-inch reach advantage, stance-switching, and long jab to score from distance. He defends takedown attempts with sprawls and footwork, and when Allen tries to pin him against the cage, he uses elbows and knees in the clinch to separate. He builds a lead on the scorecards round by round and takes it to the decision. It's the Imavov blueprint from Paris.

• Keep the fight standing using reach and footwork to avoid the clinch against the cage
• Defend at least 60% of takedown attempts and get up quickly when taken down
• Refuse close-range exchanges where Allen can close distance and pull into the clinch
• Sustain the pace and movement for five rounds without fading late