May 16, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
Allen
20-4-0
#7 FeatherweightIpswich, England | 32 years old
Costa
26-7-0
#12 FeatherweightPorto de Moz, Brazil | 29 years old
Calibre vs Hype, Over Five
Allen has dropped 3 of his last 4 but has NEVER been finished in 24 pro fights. Costa rolls in 6-0 with 4 finishes in the run — and has never been past round 3 in the UFC. The market pays Allen.
THE PARADOX
The Guy In A Slump Has Never Been Finished. The Guy On Fire Has Never Been Tested.
Arnold Allen has lost 3 of his last 4 (Holloway April 2023, Evloev January 2024, Jean Silva January 2026), and the public read is that the former contender is fading. That read needs context. All four career losses came by decision — nobody has finished Allen in 24 pro fights — and the men who beat him are Max Holloway (former champ), Movsar Evloev (undefeated, top 5), and Jean Silva (who broke out in 2025 and slid into the top 8). It isn't decline; it's opponent calibre. The Chikadze decision win (July 2024) still counts as a UD over a top-10 fighter. On the other side, Melquizael Costa is the cleanest rise at 145: six straight wins, four finishes in the run (Fili by guillotine R1, Charriere by head kick at 1:14, Dan Ige by the 6th spinning-back-kick KO in UFC history), MMA Junkie's 2025 Under-the-Radar Fighter of the Year. But the longest fight Costa has had in the UFC is the UD over Erosa (15 minutes) and over Christian Rodriguez (15 minutes). He has never gone past three rounds. Allen has five 25-minute fights on the record, including a full 25 with Holloway and three rounds with Evloev where he was being controlled. The question for this main event isn't technical — it's structural: can Costa cash the technical edge before the experience gap shows up in championship rounds?
Truth A
Costa is the cleanest rise at 145: 9 career KOs and 8 subs (26-7), 4.38 SLpM vs Allen's 3.47, 50% accuracy vs 42%, Muay Thai black belt out of Chute Boxe Bauru, six straight wins with four finishes. The spinning back kick that stopped Dan Ige (first man to ever finish Ige in the UFC) is the power resume. 71-inch reach and 5'10" mean Allen loses the distance game for the first time in a while.
Truth B
Allen has 24 pro fights and has NEVER been finished — zero KO losses, zero sub losses. 72% TDD elite, 60% striking defense, technical southpaw training at Tristar with Firas Zahabi (Pierre-Olivier Leclercq, Rob Rivest). He's 11-4 UFC, 10-fight UFC win streak between 2018 and 2022 (3rd-longest in featherweight history). The fighters who beat him: Holloway, Evloev, Silva — none of the top-7 opponents he faced finished him. Costa has never been past round 3 in the UFC. Five rounds is uncharted territory.
Tale of the Tape
Allen DOB Jan 1994. Costa DOB Sep 1996. 3-year edge to Costa.
Costa one inch taller.
Costa one inch more. Marginal — not a structural gap.
Open stance matchup. Allen usually wins the outside foot against orthodox fighters.
Tristar under Firas Zahabi vs Chute Boxe Bauru under João Emilio. Both elite — different approaches (technical vs offensive).
Current Form
Arnold Allen
Silva took the strike count 74-56. Round 1 was Silva on dangerous high kicks; rounds 2-3 Allen came back with consistent 1-2s. Silva landed 4 takedowns over the final 10 minutes.
UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)Bounceback after the Evloev loss. Technical distance management against a striker.
UDEvloev controlled the fight with wrestling and pressure. Allen spent 15 minutes dealing with takedown attempts and the clinch.
UDFull 25 minutes. Holloway found his rhythm and dictated volume. Allen took the entire 5 rounds and survived.
UD (5 rounds)Allen stacked low kicks; Kattar's knee gave out on a follow-up. Officially a TKO stoppage.
TKO R2 (leg injury)Has dropped 3 of his last 4. Holloway by UD in April 2023 (full 25 minutes, lost the cards but never in danger), Evloev by UD in January 2024 (classic Evloev — pressure and control, no real finishing threat), and Jean Silva by UD in January 2026 (UFC 324, back-and-forth fight, Silva won the sig strike tally 74-56). The win in between was a UD over a top-10 Giga Chikadze in July 2024. All four career losses are by decision. Never been knocked out, never been submitted. Trains out of BKK Fighters in Colchester with a yearly camp at Tristar Gym in Montreal under Firas Zahabi. The 10-fight UFC win streak between 2018 and 2022 is the 3rd-longest in featherweight history; the highlight wins include a TKO over Calvin Kattar (leg injury R2, Oct 2022) and a TKO over Dan Hooker (R1, March 2022).
Melquizael Costa
6th spinning-back-kick KO in UFC history. Ige had never been finished in the UFC before this fight.
TKO R1 (spinning back kick + punches, 4:56)Set up by a body kick; the head kick landed clean. Charriere went out instantly. 2025 KO-of-the-year candidate.
KO R1 (head kick, 1:14)15-minute UD. One of the few times he stretched it to the cards in the UFC.
UD15-minute UD. Veteran wrestler tested his cardio and TDD.
UDFili shot, Costa snapped on the guillotine and finished at 4:30 of R1.
Sub R1 (guillotine, 4:30)Cleanest rise at 145: six straight wins, four finishes in the run. Made his UFC debut in January 2023 against Thiago Moises on short notice and moving up to lightweight — got submitted by face crank in R2. Came back at featherweight, beat Austin Lingo in fight 2 (July 2023), then got KO'd by Steve Garcia in December 2023 (also short-notice, also at lightweight). Since 2024 he's 6-0 at his natural featherweight: Nuerdanbieke (sub R3, June 2024), Fili (guillotine R1 4:30, Feb 2025), Christian Rodriguez (UD, March 2025), Erosa (UD, May 2025), Charriere (KO R1 1:14 via head kick, Dec 2025), and Dan Ige (TKO R1 4:56 — the 6th spinning-back-kick KO in UFC history, Feb 2026). First man ever to finish Dan Ige in the UFC. MMA Junkie's 2025 Under-the-Radar Fighter of the Year. BJJ brown belt, Muay Thai black belt under Chute Boxe João Emilio in Bauru.
Level of Competition
No direct common opponents. The calibre comparison IS the story: Allen is 1W-3L against the top 5 (KO win over Kattar; losses to Holloway, Evloev, Silva) and has beaten Chikadze (top 10) and Hooker (top 10). Costa has never faced a top-10 ranked opponent. Dan Ige is #27, Charriere is unranked, Fili and Erosa are unranked veterans. The six wins in the streak combine for ZERO top-15 opponents. That doesn't invalidate Costa's rise, but it does mark the calibre jump this fight represents. Real calibre gap — Allen has three 25-minute fights at the elite level (Holloway full distance) on file; Costa has never been past 15 minutes in the UFC.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes per Minute
Costa puts up 26% more volume. Offensive striker identity out of Chute Boxe.
Striking Accuracy (%)
Costa 8 points clear. Real technical edge.
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Allen eats less. Defense built on movement and reads.
Striking Defense (%)
Allen 5 points up. Southpaw footwork creates angles.
Takedowns per 15 Min
Costa shoots 2.3x more. But Allen at 48% accuracy edges Costa at 41%.
Takedown Accuracy (%)
Allen more efficient when he does shoot.
Takedown Defense (%)
KEY STAT. Allen 72% (elite at FW) vs Costa 59% (vulnerable). 13-point gap.
Allen leads in 4 categories · Costa leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both profiles balanced. Allen wins more on the cards (45% of his wins) and has secondary power (7 KOs). Costa has more total finishes (17 between KO and sub, vs Allen's 11) but also 35% decisions. The difference is that Costa's current streak (Fili, Charriere, Ige, plus Nuerdanbieke) is four finishes — peak offensive form. Allen has gone four straight decisions.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The structurally biggest stat in the fight. Allen has 4 career losses — ALL by decision. Has NEVER been knocked out, NEVER been submitted in 24 pro fights. Across 11 UFC fights against top-5 and top-10 calibre, nobody has stopped him. Costa's loss profile is spread: 2 KOs, 2 subs, 3 decisions. The two UFC subs came in his short-notice debut moving up to lightweight (Moises face crank, Jan 2023), and the KO loss to Garcia (Dec 2023) was also a weight class up. But the chin resume isn't elite. For method bets: Costa by KO over Allen is statistically uphill. Costa by takedown-to-sub is uphill too (72% Allen TDD). Decision is the lane where Allen's resume opens up.
Skills Profile
Allen
vs
Costa
Striking Volume
+2 Costa
Costa 4.38 SLpM vs Allen's 3.47. Costa produces 26% more raw volume.
Precision and Distance Striking
+1 Allen
Allen is the more technical southpaw — movement and distance management. Costa is more aggressive, more willing to trade.
Knockout Power
+3 Costa
Costa has 9 KOs in 26 wins (35%), four KO/TKOs in the current run. Allen has 7 KOs in 20 wins but none in his last five outings.
Wrestling and Takedown Defense
+3 Allen
Allen 72% TDD vs Costa 59% TDD. Costa shoots more (2.0/15min) but is more vulnerable.
Durability (Chin + Sub Defense)
+4 Allen
Allen has NEVER been finished in 24 pro fights. Costa has been submitted twice and KO'd twice in his career. Structural gap.
Cardio Over 5 Rounds
+3 Allen
Allen went 25 with Holloway and the full distance with Evloev. Costa has never been past 15 minutes in the UFC. Uncharted for Costa.
Costa has the technical edge in the first 15 minutes (volume, power, aggression). Allen has the structural edge after that (TDD, elite chin, cardio proven over 25). The fight is a race between Costa finishing early or Allen imposing his fight late.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Arnold Allen wins by decision because, first, he has 72% TDD vs Costa's 59% (13-point gap), 60% striking defense vs 55%, and southpaw distance management trained at Tristar with Firas Zahabi.
The thesis is: Arnold Allen wins by decision because, first, he has 72% TDD vs Costa's 59% (13-point gap), 60% striking defense vs 55%, and southpaw distance management trained at Tristar with Firas Zahabi.
Second, his chin is structurally elite — NEVER finished in 24 pro fights, ZERO KO losses in 4 decision losses — which neutralizes Costa's main weapon (16 finishes in 26 wins, 6 of his last 7 wins by finish).
Third, the calibre is genuinely different: Allen lost to Holloway, Evloev, Silva (all top 8); Costa beat Ige (#27), Charriere (outside top 30), Erosa (unranked) in his streak. Path: Allen absorbs Costa's opening pace through rounds 1-2, neutralizes the takedown attempts, opens distance with the straight left and low kick (his signature), and dictates volume through rounds 3-5 where cardio and 25-minute experience matter. Falls apart if Costa stacks a kick sequence in the first 15 minutes the way he did to Dan Ige (spinning back kick) or Charriere (body kick → head kick).
Conviction
Conviction 6 (not 7) because the thesis has four convergent dimensions (stats, calibre, experience, durability) but three factors cap the ceiling. First, Allen has lost 3 of his last 4 — that statistically opens the floor for Costa even if opponent calibre explains most of the slide. Second, Costa brings real finishing power right now (4 finishes in the last 6 wins), and when a fighter is peaking offensively, any chin can crack. Third, the market opened Allen and sits 63/37 — implied probability for is 65%, estimated 60% — the moneyline edge isn't huge. The Tier-1 calibre ressalva fires in the opposite direction here: the predicted winner (Allen) IS the higher-calibre fighter; the underdog (Costa) is the one who hasn't faced top-10 competition. That doesn't flip the thesis — but it keeps conviction at medium because Costa's resume is genuinely thin at this level.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
Costa lands the spinning back kick or head kick in rounds 1-2 (Chute Boxe specialty, Ige/Charriere pattern)
- 02
Allen can't neutralize Costa's volume in the first 15 minutes and absorbs accumulated damage
- 03
Costa forces clinch + takedown in a transition and opens top control using his Muay Thai discipline
- 04
Costa's cardio holds up at 25 minutes for the first time and Allen doesn't have the volume to take the late rounds
Underdog Path
Costa has two parallel paths. Path A (finish in the first 15 minutes): walk Allen down at center cage, vary the kicks (body, low, head) the way he did to Charriere (body kick → head kick at 1:14 of R1), find the finishing sequence, close before round 4. The spinning back kick on Dan Ige is the power resume for this path. Path B (volume decision): hold 4.38 SLpM across the 5 rounds, force Allen to eat more, win 3 of 5 rounds on close cards by leaning on the "Allen has lost 3 of 4" narrative. Path B is riskier because Costa has never been past 15 minutes in the UFC — but the 9 career decisions over 26 wins say the professional cardio exists.
Required Conditions
- Land meaningful damage in R1 before Allen finds his southpaw rhythm
- Force Allen out of distance management and into stand-up trades
- Keep the aggression without absorbing southpaw low kicks that limit mobility later
- If the fight gets to R4, have the cardio to take at least one of rounds 4-5
— Precedent: Jean Silva beat Allen in January 2026 with pressure and offensive variation (74-56 in sig strikes), going at him from round 1 and holding pace. Costa has a similar offensive profile (more aggressive, more kick variety) — just without the 5-round experience. Movsar Evloev also took Allen with pressure + wrestling in January 2024, so the "busier, more physical fighter beats Allen" pattern has two recent precedents. The counterpoint: both Silva and Evloev had more 5-round experience than Costa does walking in.
Verdict
Winner
Arnold Allen
Method
Decision
Most Likely
- 01
Total Rounds
Over 2.5 rounds
Allen has NEVER been finished in 24 pro fights. Costa has never finished a top-10 ranked opponent. Odds of the fight clearing round 3 are high — Allen survived Holloway, Evloev, and Silva without any finishing scare. Safest play on the card.
- 02
Method
Allen by Decision
Allen's profile is decision-heavy (45% of wins by decision), never finished. Costa wins by decision 35% of the time. Most likely outcome of the main pick. The implied is 36%, estimated 38-42%. Moderate edge.
- 03
Winner
Allen
Real probability estimated at 60%, implied is 65%. No edge on the straight ML, but the structural thesis is solid (four convergent dimensions). Taking Allen via method (decision) carries more value than the ML.
- 04
Total Rounds
Under 4.5 rounds
Allen has five completed 25-minute fights on file. Costa has never been past 15 minutes in the UFC. If the fight crosses round 3, it's new territory for Costa, and Allen could find a late TKO off accumulated leg damage (a Kattar-style setup). A contrarian play to the Over 2.5 — different scenario, different lane.
Most Likely Outcome
Allen by Decision
Best direct value of the fight. Allen profiles as a decision winner (45% of his wins), Costa has never finished anyone of Allen's calibre, Allen has NEVER been finished. Combines the main pick (Allen wins) with the most likely method (decision). The implied is 36%; estimated lifts to 40-42% on the structural resume. 4-6-point edge, solid.
Stats That Matter
0
Times Allen has been finished in 24 pro fights
Zero KO losses, zero sub losses. All 4 losses by decision. Neutralizes Costa's biggest weapon.
72% vs 59%
Allen's TDD vs Costa's TDD
13-point gap. Allen defends 7-8 of every 10; Costa defends 5-6.
4/6
Costa wins by finish in the current streak
Fili (guillotine R1), Charriere (head kick R1), Ige (spinning back kick R1), Nuerdanbieke (sub R3). Peak offensive form.
Allen's moneyline
63/37. Implied 65%, estimated 60%. Small ML edge — bigger edge on the method.
The Trap
The Trap: Costa by Specific Knockout
The market will pay heavy on "Costa by KO/TKO" based on the recent finishes (spinning back kick on Ige, head kick on Charriere). But Allen has NEVER been knocked out in 24 pro fights. The men who beat Allen (Holloway, Evloev, Silva) all failed to finish him. Costa would have to do what Holloway, Evloev, and Silva didn't. Betting a specific Costa finish is betting against a structural 24-fight wall. The path exists (37%) — but it's far more likely via volume and decision than via knockout. Costa-by-finish at long odds is statistically high-risk.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Arnold "Almighty" Allen vs Melquizael "The Dalmatian" Costa | UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa | May 16, 2026 | Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada