June 27, 2026 · National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
Aliskerov
17-2-0
N/RMakhachkala, Russia | 33 years old
Ferreira
15-3-0
N/RCuritiba, Brazil | 33 years old
Volume and Sambo vs. the Heavy Hands
Aliskerov has the reach, the pace, and the sambo of a four-time world champion. Ferreira has the punch that ends the night in a blink. The math is simple and dangerous: the Russian's higher level against the Hulk's raw power.
O PONTO QUE DECIDE
The Russian Lands More. The Hulk Lands Once
Aliskerov is the higher-level fighter in this cage, full stop. A four-time combat sambo world champion who beat Yaroslav Amosov on the mat, he lands 6.86 significant strikes per minute, owns a four-inch reach edge, and has a 100% takedown defense in the UFC. He's beaten Phil Hawes, Warlley Alves, Andre Muniz, and outpointed Jun Yong Park. His resume is on another tier from the Hulk's. But there's a catch that erases part of that edge: Aliskerov's only two losses both came by knockout, both in the first round, to Chimaev in 2019 and Whittaker in 2024. He absorbs 5.47 strikes per minute and has just 41% striking defense. That's exactly the kind of chin Brunno Ferreira was built to find. The Hulk has nine knockouts in 15 wins, almost all in the first round, and his power doesn't need a setup. Aliskerov wins nearly every exchange. The problem is he only has to miss one.
Aliskerov is the higher-level fighter in this cage, full stop. A four-time combat sambo world champion who beat Yaroslav Amosov on the mat, he lands 6.86 significant strikes per minute, owns a four-inch reach edge, and has a 100% takedown defense in the UFC. He's beaten Phil Hawes, Warlley Alves, Andre Muniz, and outpointed Jun Yong Park. His resume is on another tier from the Hulk's. But there's a catch that erases part of that edge: Aliskerov's only two losses both came by knockout, both in the first round, to Chimaev in 2019 and Whittaker in 2024. He absorbs 5.47 strikes per minute and has just 41% striking defense. That's exactly the kind of chin Brunno Ferreira was built to find. The Hulk has nine knockouts in 15 wins, almost all in the first round, and his power doesn't need a setup. Aliskerov wins nearly every exchange. The problem is he only has to miss one.
Tale of the Tape
Aliskerov is two inches taller
A four-inch reach edge for the Russian, a real range advantage
Current Form
Ikram Aliskerov
UFC 321. Controlled the rugged South Korean with volume and sambo over three rounds. Proof of cardio and that he can win without the knockout.
Unanimous DecisionThe bounce-back after Whittaker. Cornered black belt Muniz and finished with a left hook and ground strikes in the first round.
KO R1Took the former champ on short notice and got starched by an uppercut and follow-up flurry in under two minutes. The proof that his chin is an open door.
KO R1Flew in with a flying knee and finished veteran Warlley Alves in the first round. Explosive striking from a sambo base.
KO R1A statement debut. Flattened the dangerous Phil Hawes with a straight right in the first round and put the division on notice.
KO R1He bounced back from the Whittaker loss the right way: starched Andre Muniz in the first round, then outpointed the tough Jun Yong Park to prove he can carry three rounds. He's rolling, now fighting essentially at home in the Caucasus, against an opponent with a lighter resume. The favorite tag is earned.
Brunno Ferreira
UFC 326. Rematch with Rodrigues, whom he'd knocked out back in 2023. This time he opened his guard switching stances and caught a clean right hook. Out at 1:47 of the first.
KO R1Surprised a lot of people and dominated the former title challenger on the cards. Showed he's more than just the punch, holding up over three rounds.
Unanimous DecisionUFC 318. Took the fight to the mat and locked in a clean armbar in the first round. A reminder that his submission game is real.
Sub R1Another armbar, this time in the second round against a tough opponent. Second straight submission.
Sub R2UFC 308. Went to the ground with Magomedov and got caught in an arm-triangle in the third round. The first time his ground game turned against him.
Sub R3He was riding a strong run, back-to-back armbars over Petrosyan and McVey and a solid decision over former title challenger Marvin Vettori, until he ran into Gregory Rodrigues. He switched to southpaw, opened up his guard, and ate a right hook that put him out in under two minutes. He comes back now carrying that question about his chin.
Level of Competition
The resume gap is the story. Aliskerov has faced elite names: he lost to former champ Whittaker and to Chimaev, but he's beaten Phil Hawes, Warlley Alves, Andre Muniz, and ranked Jun Yong Park. Ferreira built his record against lower-calibre opposition, his best scalp being a declining Vettori. The two have never shared a common opponent, but the Russian's trial by fire was far tougher.
Statistical Comparison
Sig. Strikes por Minuto
Aliskerov produces nearly double the volume per minute
Precisão de Strikes (%)
The Russian is far more accurate
Strikes Absorvidos/Min
Both let too much through: both chins have failed
Defesa de Strikes (%)
Ferreira holds up a bit better, but neither is a wall
Takedowns por 15 Min
The Russian's sambo shows up: far more active on takedowns
Precisão de Takedown (%)
Defesa de Takedown (%)
100% takedown defense in the UFC strips the Hulk of the ground game
Submissões por 15 Min
Aliskerov leads in 5 categories · Ferreira leads in 3
Win & Loss Distribution
Wins
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Both are finishers, but by different roads. Ferreira is the more KO-concentrated hitter, 60% of his wins by knockout and almost all in the first round, the classic fighter who solves it early or not at all. Aliskerov is more versatile: seven KOs, five submissions off his sambo, and five decisions, a sign he can win every way, including by going long. It matters for the method: the Hulk needs a moment of impact, the Russian has more doors to walk through.
Losses
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
The loss profiles draw the fight. Aliskerov only loses one way: knocked out. Both his defeats came by KO in the first round, to Chimaev and Whittaker, and he's never been submitted or lost on the cards. It's a chin that, when it goes, goes early. Ferreira is more varied: two KO losses (Ruziboev and Rodrigues, both in the first round) and one arm-triangle submission when Magomedov dragged the fight to the third. The translation for this matchup: the upset path is the Hulk landing early, before the Russian sets his rhythm, because once you clear those first minutes everything tilts toward Aliskerov.
Skills Profile
Aliskerov
vs
Ferreira
Striking em Distância
+3 Aliskerov
Aliskerov has a four-inch reach edge and lands 6.86 strikes per minute to the Hulk's 3.77. He owns the range comfortably.
Striking em Curta Distância
+1 Ferreira
In the pocket, the Hulk's power levels it out. That's how he's knocked out almost everyone, almost always in the first round.
Poder de Nocaute
+1 Ferreira
Both can put you out. Ferreira has nine KOs in 15 wins, Aliskerov has seven in 17 plus the flying knee on Alves. Raw power is close, a slight edge to the Hulk's single shot.
Defesa de Striking
Even
Both leak too much and both have been put out. Aliskerov absorbs more (5.47/min) but Ferreira is coming off a fresh KO. Defense is the soft spot for both.
Grappling e Clinch
+3 Aliskerov
Four-time combat sambo world champ, 100% takedown defense in the UFC, and he submitted Amosov on the mat. The Russian's ground game is another level.
Cardio (5 rounds)
+2 Aliskerov
Aliskerov already held up three rounds against Park. Ferreira has a history of fading and got submitted in the third by Magomedov when the fight stretched out.
Aliskerov wins on reach, volume, accuracy, and the entire ground game. Ferreira has one card, but it's a card that kills: the single shot. The fight becomes a referendum on whether the Russian's already-shaken chin holds up while he stacks the technical edge he owns everywhere else.
Final Prediction
The Thesis
The thesis is: Ikram Aliskerov wins because he's the higher-level fighter, landing 6.86 significant strikes per minute to the Hulk's 3.77, with a four-inch reach edge and a resume that includes Whittaker, Hawes, Muniz, and Park, because his 100% takedown defense in the UFC and four-time-world-champion sambo close off Ferreira's ground route and force him to win on the feet where he's at a disadvantage, and because the Hulk returns from a brutal knockout this past March, with his confidence shaken and the chin question wide open.
The thesis is: Ikram Aliskerov wins because he's the higher-level fighter, landing 6.86 significant strikes per minute to the Hulk's 3.77, with a four-inch reach edge and a resume that includes Whittaker, Hawes, Muniz, and Park, because his 100% takedown defense in the UFC and four-time-world-champion sambo close off Ferreira's ground route and force him to win on the feet where he's at a disadvantage, and because the Hulk returns from a brutal knockout this past March, with his confidence shaken and the chin question wide open.
The path is Aliskerov surviving the first five minutes without taking the bait into a pocket exchange, controlling distance with the jab and volume, mixing in the takedown threat to keep the Hulk reactive, and breaking him down toward a knockout or a wide decision. It breaks down if Ferreira lands the single shot early, in the exact window where Aliskerov's chin already failed against Chimaev and Whittaker.
Conviction
Conviction 7, no higher, because even though the thesis leans on five distinct dimensions (stats, level of competition, style, momentum, and physique), Aliskerov's chin is a real, documented confounder: both his losses came by first-round knockout, he has just 41% striking defense and absorbs 5.47 strikes per minute, and across from him is precisely a fighter with nine KOs in 15 wins and the kind of shot that solves it early. What holds the conviction at 7 instead of dropping it to 6 is that the Russian's edge is multi-layered and real: reach, volume, accuracy, level of opposition, and the sambo that closes the Hulk's ground game. This isn't a market read, even if the line agrees: the edge comes from the higher level and the neutralized ground route, not from the odds.
What Breaks This Pick
- 01
If Ferreira lands clean in the first five minutes, Aliskerov's chin has already proven an open door against Chimaev and Whittaker, and the fight ends right there.
- 02
If Aliskerov underrates the Hulk's power and accepts the pocket exchange instead of using his reach, he steps into the one zone where Ferreira is genuinely dangerous.
- 03
If the Russian fights with his head at home, trying to please the Caucasus crowd, and rushes the knockout, he opens windows for the Brazilian's heavy counter.
- 04
If the takedown defense fails and the fight hits the mat at a bad moment, Ferreira has five submissions and two recent armbars to spring a surprise.
Underdog Path
Ferreira refuses to back up, forces the pocket exchange in the first round, and lands the hook or the cross before Aliskerov settles his rhythm. The Russian's chin, already down twice by first-round knockout, fails again. It's the shortest fight of the night, decided on a single shot, exactly how the Hulk has won nearly all of his fights.
Required Conditions
- Land the impact shot in the first five minutes, before the Russian controls the distance
- Refuse to go to the ground and avoid Aliskerov's sambo at all costs
- Cut off the cage and force the close-range exchange, where the reach edge matters less
- Stay composed after the recent KO and not fight scared of the counter
— Precedent: Chimaev vs Aliskerov (2019) and Whittaker vs Aliskerov (UFC Fight Night, June 2024): both times the Russian went down, it was by first-round knockout, a clean shot finding the chin before the midpoint. Ferreira has the power to repeat the dose if he lands first.
Verdict
Winner
Ikram Aliskerov
Method
TKO
Most Likely
- 01
Winner
Ikram Aliskerov
Aliskerov because he's better at reach, volume, accuracy, and the entire ground game, with 100% takedown defense that closes the Hulk's route. The line is already expensive, so it's a moderate stake. Breaks if Ferreira finds his chin in the first five minutes.
- 02
Método
Aliskerov by KO/TKO
Aliskerov by knockout because he solves it early when he has the edge, starched Muniz, Alves, and Hawes in the first round, and Ferreira returns off a fresh KO with his chin in question. The best value in the fight. Breaks if the Russian chooses to control and take it to the cards.
- 03
Vencedor azarão
Ferreira by KO/TKO
Ferreira by KO because it's the cleanest way the underdog wins: the single shot finding Aliskerov's already-shaken chin, the way Chimaev and Whittaker did. The market pays well and the path is real. Breaks if the Russian controls the distance and refuses the pocket exchange.
- 04
Como termina (qualquer lutador)
Fight does not go to decision
No decision because both are finishers with brittle chins: Aliskerov solves it early and Ferreira both starches and gets starched in the first round. The odds of fireworks are high. Breaks if Aliskerov chooses to control with the sambo and manage the edge over three rounds.
Most Likely Outcome
Aliskerov by KO/TKO, moderate stake
It's the soundest read: the Russian has more accumulated power, solves it early when he runs the fight, and meets a Hulk with shaken confidence coming off a knockout. But conviction 7 and the favorite's brittle chin mean don't size it up: this fight can end either way on a single shot.
Stats That Matter
ZERO
Aliskerov's career losses, both by knockout in the first round
He's never been submitted or lost on the cards: when he falls, he gets put out early
100%
Aliskerov's takedown defense in the UFC, which strips the Hulk of the ground game
Forces Ferreira to win on the feet, where he's at a reach and volume disadvantage
60%
of Ferreira's knockouts came in the first round, the profile of a fighter who solves it early or not at all
The Hulk's danger window is short and right at the start
The Trap
Ferreira by submission
The public sees back-to-back armbars from the Hulk and bets him by submission, assuming the ground game is the route. But it's the least likely path: Aliskerov has 100% takedown defense in the UFC and is a four-time combat sambo world champion, meaning Ferreira can barely get the fight down and, if he does, he's stepping into the Russian's territory. If the Hulk wins, it's by knockout on the feet, not by submission.
The public sees back-to-back armbars from the Hulk and bets him by submission, assuming the ground game is the route. But it's the least likely path: Aliskerov has 100% takedown defense in the UFC and is a four-time combat sambo world champion, meaning Ferreira can barely get the fight down and, if he does, he's stepping into the Russian's territory. If the Hulk wins, it's by knockout on the feet, not by submission.
COLISEUM - Statistical and tactical analysis. Data sourced from ufcstats.com and public sources.
Ikram "The Heavyweight" Aliskerov vs Brunno "The Hulk" Ferreira | UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres | June 27, 2026 | National Gymnastics Arena, Baku
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